Bund, Tbond, hardlanding and the Fleurs subprime lending....

leo-kondor ha scritto:
neahce tu dormi da! :up:
grazie degli aggiornamenti.. e in k.ulo allo yen! :cool:


io non dormo..ma non per lo yen o l'aud.....soffro di insonnia da 16 anni oramai....ma la notte è bella...è il giorno che ho alcune volte problemi di concentrazione...va be...

de nada :-o
 
Apr 16, 2007 10:30 am



Editor's Note: The following article was written by Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist, Jeff Saut.

“Psychologists have uncovered a surprising number of idiosyncrasies from making the soundest choices in many situations. These lapses explain some of the mysterious up and downdrafts that can lift and lower stock prices. Understanding them can make successful investing easier. The most important findings arise from answers to a pair of questions.

The First: If faced with the prospect of two possible gains, which would you choose?

-A 100% chance to win $3,000.
-An 80% chance to win $4,000.

Asked this question, most people choose the guaranteed $3,000, even though the second choice has a higher value according to probability theory. The value is determined by multiplying the chance of winning, or 80%, by the $4,000 the winner stands to gain (80% of $4,000 is $3,200). So in the long run you come out ahead by making the second choice consistently. Most people are bothered by the 20% chance of getting nothing in the second choice, which tells psychologists what stock market theorists knew all along: That investors in general prize certainty and abhor risk.

It’s not that simple, however. When people are confronted with prospective losses, quirky psychology turns them into riverboat gamblers. That fresh discovery became clear from another question: Which would you choose?

-A certain loss of $3,000.
-An 80% chance of losing $4,000 and a 20% chance of losing nothing.

Most people will gamble on the second choice, which offers a 20% chance of going unscathed, even though it is riskier (again, 80% of $4,000 is $3,200). Because people’s horror of losses exceeds even their aversion to risks, they are willing to take risks – even bad risks. Contrary to what’s been believed, risk aversion is not always the guiding light of decision-making.

To measure just how deep the fear of loss runs, psychologists follow up this pair of questions with another. Students were invited to wager on a hypothetical coin toss: Heads, you win $150; tails, you lose $100. Though the potential payoff is 1½ times the possible, most students refused to bet.

How can otherwise rational people act so unwisely in the face of promising moneymaking opportunities? Despite the outsize reward for taking this risk, the researchers say, most people are put off by the 50% chance of losing. Loss aversion is a surprisingly powerful emotion. So great, in fact, that it keeps people from accepting good bets, both in coin flipping and in selecting stocks."
--John J. Curran, 1987 INVESTORS’ GUIDE


A lot of people have missed the rally over the past nine months. Those investors view missing the rally as opportunity lost.

Accordingly, I am getting the sense that investors, confronted with these “prospective” losses, are turning into catch-up “riverboat” speculators. A case in point was last Monday’s “rush” into the shares of Dow Chemical (DOW) on takeover rumors. By the end of the week, however, Dow had fired the two top officials that had been posturing for a buyout, leaving Monday’s speculators sitting with losses.

More confirmation of this bullish abandon can be found in the record margin debt at brokerage firms. And the little guy is not alone, for Wall Street strategists are collectively recommending the heaviest stocks mix in years. In fact, some strategists are actually forecasting a “melt up” for stocks. While I have learned that markets can do anything, I have also learned that there are times to be aggressively bullish and times to be cautious. Currently, I am obviously cautious on the major market indices even though it feels like they are going to trade higher. This caution stems from the fact that despite what many pundits suggest, stocks, in the aggregate, are not particularly cheap at 17.8x trailing earnings, 3.2x book value, and sporting a dividend yield of 1.9% (basis the S&P 500).

Moreover, I am concerned about the dearth of capital spending. More specifically, the report that nondefense capital goods (ex-aircraft) has fallen from near double-digit growth in mid-2006 to zero is concerning to us because it is now tracking into recessionary territory. In fact, the last time its six-month rate of change, and its year-over-year rate of change, were poised like this we were but a mere few months in front of a recession.

Meanwhile, the “productivity miracle” seems to be waning. As my firm's economist Scott Brown, Ph.D. notes: “Nonfarm business productivity has risen at a 1.5% annual rate since 2Q '04. The preliminary estimate of 1Q '07 productivity growth won't be reported until May 3. However, it seems clear that output per worker grew at a meager pace. A protracted slowing in productivity growth would have enormous consequences for the outlook for economic growth, inflation, corporate profits, the dollar, and the long-term federal budget picture.” And, last week the U.S. dollar may have sensed such consequences because the Dollar Index (at DX.1/81.81) broke below its December 2006 reaction low, making its next target the December 2004 low of 80.60 (basis the June 2007 future). Failing that level would suggest another leg down for the greenback (see the chart).

U.S. Dollar Index

Source: Reuters BridgeStation

Maybe last week’s dollar dive was driven by the government’s report showing a 19% downward revision to the nonfarm payroll numbers through 3Q '06. If that trend holds for the 4Q '06, it could imply a downward benchmark revision of about 450,000 jobs according to Merrill Lynch’s economist David Rosenberg. Or maybe the weakness is attributable to the recent GDP report that showed the growth in corporate profits has stopped. Indeed, after the capital consumption (CCA) and inventory valuation (IVA) adjustments, profits before taxes declined 0.3% in the 4Q '06. While it is likely that oil inventories played a roll in these figures, it is a developing profits trend that bears watching. Also worth watching is the government’s increasing movement toward protectionism and regulation/intervention.

In such an environment, where we can’t decide if the economy is slowing into recession, slowing to a muddle, or reaccelerating (although recent figures have a decided slowing tint), we have tried to focus on themes, and special situations, that make sense to us. Energy is one such theme, for while the U.S. seems to be slowing economically, the rest of the world is not, as demonstrated by China’s roughly 13% increase in crude oil demand. To take advantage of that demand my firm has recommended most of the Canadian oil sands complex, which had a fairly big rally last week. This is particularly impressive in light of the Canadian Dollar’s recent strength (we remain bullish on the Canadian Dollar).

My firm has also recommended a number of energy names that presented at the Raymond James Institutional Conference in March. Accordingly, ideas like Petrohawk (HK), Kodiak (KOG), 6.7%-yielding NGP Resources (NGPC), and Helix (HLX) have performed well over the last few months. Yet for non-stock-specific investors, the recommendation of the 5%-yielding Blackrock Global Energy (BGR) ETF has been a risk-adjusted way to participate in the energy theme, whose shares broke out to the upside in the charts last week. My firm has also embraced non-economic-sensitive themes like homeland security using L-1 Identity Solutions (ID), which recently received a large contact. Then too is the non-economic-sensitive “water theme.” While the non-stock-specific investor may want to consider the Water PowerShares (PHO), my firm's Canadian-based analysts have been recommending Laperrier & Verreault (GLV.A) as a way to participate in the water theme. As always, Canadian securities should be checked for Blue Sky laws in this country.

The call for this week: Last week the DJIA rallied 0.4%, but the Dollar Index declined 1.0% begging the question, “Did stocks really rally, or did the measuring stick decline (aka; the U.S. dollar). Meanwhile gold, at $690.60/ounce (also an anti-dollar bet), is challenging its reaction high of $692.50/ounce and I remain bullish as I have been since gold’s October 2001 lows of $280/ounce. While my firm has recommended MANY gold stocks since then, most investors will be best served buying the shares of a precious metals mutual fund. Currently, we are using the shares of OCM Gold Fund (OCMGX). As for my firm's trading position in the Financial SPDRs (XLF), while we are profitable in this position, and are using a stoploss point slightly below $34.00, we have been disappointed in the financials’ performance over the past few weeks and subsequently have raised our stop-loss point. That said, even though we expect stocks to trade higher, there may be more risk than reward at this point.
 
Yen Ends Decline Against Euro as Charts Signal Drop Excessive

By Ron Harui and Kosuke Goto

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- The yen ended a five-day decline against the euro as traders said the currency's 2.8 percent drop this month was too rapid.

The Japanese currency rose from a 10-year low against the Australian dollar as charts investors use to predict movements signaled the yen will rebound. Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui told parliament today consumer prices may rise in the long term, suggesting he will increase interest rates.

``Recent losses in the yen were clearly overdone,'' said Yuji Kameoka, a senior economist and currency analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research in Tokyo. ``The Bank of Japan will raise rates two or three times in one year.''

The yen advanced to 161.93 per euro at 6:35 a.m. in London from 162.07 in New York late yesterday. It gained to 119.55 against the dollar from 119.74 yesterday, when it fell to 119.87, the weakest since Feb 27. Japan's currency may rise to 114 a dollar by year-end, Kameoka said.

The 10-day relative strength index for the euro against the yen was 76. A level above 70 is a signal that the Japanese currency's decline has been too fast.

Japan's currency has declined the most among the world's most-actively traded currencies this month against the euro and the Australian and New Zealand dollars as investors borrowed the currency to buy higher-yielding assets in so-called carry trades.

The yen snapped a three-day losing streak versus the currencies in Australia and New Zealand, rising to 99.61 from 99.71 per Australian dollar, and to 88.42 from 88.60 per New Zealand dollar.

Against the yen, the Australian dollar's 10-day RSI was 80 and the New Zealand dollar's was 77.

Short Positions

A report last week showed the number of investors betting the yen will drop against the dollar, holding so-called short positions, increased to the highest in six weeks. The number is sometimes seen as a contrary indicator because of the risk of large swings should the currency change direction.

The April 13 report from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a drop in the yen compared with those on a gain -- so-called net shorts

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at [email protected] ; Kosuke Goto in Tokyo at [email protected] .

Last Updated: April 17, 2007 01:43 EDT
 
1176793721screenhunter_091.jpg
 
SHANGHAI, April 17 (Reuters) - Two Chinese mutual fund companies raised a combined 18 billion yuan ($2.33 billion) from the launch of two equity funds on Monday as investors queued to pour cash into the country's red-hot stock market.

Shanghai-based Hua An Fund Management Co. Ltd. raised 10 billion yuan for a small-cap stock fund, converted from a closed-end fund, it said in a statement on its Web site.

The fund attracted more than 30 billion yuan in subscriptions on its first day of launch, forcing Hua An to close the sale as it was only allowed to raise a maximum of 10 billion yuan for the product, the Shanghai Securities reported on Tuesday.

Also on Monday, Lord Abbett China Asset Management Co. Ltd., which is 49 percent-owned by U.S. fund management company Lord Abbett & Co., raked in 8 billion yuan for a stock fund in just one day, Lord Abbett China said in a statement.



Demand for the Lord Abbett China fund totalled more than 15 billion yuan, the newspaper said.

Chinese mutual funds, which manage around 1 trillion yuan ($130 billion) in assets compared with virtually nothing just a few years ago, are jostling to launch new funds as investors pile into the surging domestic stock market.

The benchmark Shanghai composite index <SSEC> has tripled since the start of last year, driven by a slew of structural reforms.

The hefty returns delivered by some Chinese mutual funds last year have significantly boosted investors' buying interest in mutual funds.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s (JPM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) Chinese fund management venture said last week it had received nearly 90 billion yuan of subscriptions to its new equities fund in a single day -- over 10 times its original sales target.


© Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved
 
gipa69 ha scritto:
SHANGHAI, April 17 (Reuters) - Two Chinese mutual fund companies raised a combined 18 billion yuan ($2.33 billion) from the launch of two equity funds on Monday as investors queued to pour cash into the country's red-hot stock market.

Shanghai-based Hua An Fund Management Co. Ltd. raised 10 billion yuan for a small-cap stock fund, converted from a closed-end fund, it said in a statement on its Web site.

The fund attracted more than 30 billion yuan in subscriptions on its first day of launch, forcing Hua An to close the sale as it was only allowed to raise a maximum of 10 billion yuan for the product, the Shanghai Securities reported on Tuesday.

Also on Monday, Lord Abbett China Asset Management Co. Ltd., which is 49 percent-owned by U.S. fund management company Lord Abbett & Co., raked in 8 billion yuan for a stock fund in just one day, Lord Abbett China said in a statement.



Demand for the Lord Abbett China fund totalled more than 15 billion yuan, the newspaper said.

Chinese mutual funds, which manage around 1 trillion yuan ($130 billion) in assets compared with virtually nothing just a few years ago, are jostling to launch new funds as investors pile into the surging domestic stock market.

The benchmark Shanghai composite index <SSEC> has tripled since the start of last year, driven by a slew of structural reforms.

The hefty returns delivered by some Chinese mutual funds last year have significantly boosted investors' buying interest in mutual funds.

JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s (JPM.N: Quote, Profile , Research) Chinese fund management venture said last week it had received nearly 90 billion yuan of subscriptions to its new equities fund in a single day -- over 10 times its original sales target.


© Reuters 2007. All Rights Reserved

well...
not exactly a bearish signal, but also point to a situation of a great understatement for the market risk :cool:
as always, a culp to the cerch et un a là bott :lol:
 
Per il momento stanno prendendo fiato... vediamo se si trasforma in qualcosaltro.
Comunque massima prudenza nell'esposizione
 
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles

il primo dato CPI della giornata è uscito e zac un bel scivolone dei bonds inglesi

*DJ UK Mar CPI +0.5% On Month; +3.1% On Year

la BOE a sto punto quasi sicuro rialza il prossimo meeting

attendant il CPI chiave americano
la giornata si prospetta muy interessante :p :p

1176805460mariaozawa.jpg
 
Fleursdumal ha scritto:
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles

il primo dato CPI della giornata è uscito e zac un bel scivolone dei bonds inglesi

*DJ UK Mar CPI +0.5% On Month; +3.1% On Year

la BOE a sto punto quasi sicuro rialza il prossimo meeting

attendant il CPI chiave americano
la giornata si prospetta muy interessante :p :p

Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1176805460mariaozawa.jpg

lei non perde nè il pelo nè il vizio....

yesss, girnata interessante perchè se scivolasse di un 1% farebbe nuovamente ricomparire lo spauracchio del doppio massimo ( con falso breakout)
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Alto