Bund, Tbond, hardlanding and the Fleurs subprime lending....
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
minkia.....euro/yen schizzato in aun amen da 159,60 a 160,40....seguito da uno spike dell'aud e dell'euro/usd....quazzo succede?
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
China's Economy Surges at Faster Than Expected 11.1% on Exports
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy grew at a faster than expected 11.1 percent pace, powered by exports that have inflamed trade tensions and increased the risk of overheating.
Spending on factories and real estate accelerated in the first quarter, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for growth of 10.4 percent from a year earlier, the same as in the previous quarter.
China's government, concerned the boom may turn to bust, may raise interest rates or allow the yuan to appreciate faster to curb runaway investment in property, factories and the stock market. The China Banking Regulatory Commission today cautioned that a trade surplus that almost doubled to $46.4 billion in the first quarter may trigger a rebound in bad loans.
``China needs to raise the cost of capital -- it's still way too cheap, and that means investment is too strong,'' Stephen Green, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai, said before the release. ``Add asset-price inflation pressures, and you have a recipe that is worrying Beijing again.''
China's benchmark stock index fell 2.7 percent to 3215.02 at 1:07 p.m. in Shanghai before the announcement on speculation growth may prompt a rate increase as soon as today. The CSI 300 Index plunged 9 percent in a day at the end of February, triggering a global equities rout. The measure has since soared 30 percent and set a record yesterday.
Consumer prices climbed 3.3 percent in March versus a central bank target of 3 percent for 2007. That's the highest inflation rate in more than two years.
Factories, Property
Urban investment in factories and real estate jumped 25.3 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from 24.5 percent for all of 2006.
``Given 60 percent of investment is financed internally, to really cool the economy they need to cool profits,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``The easiest way to do that is allow yuan appreciation -- China's goods become more expensive and profit margins start to get squeezed.''
Trade tensions include World Trade Organization complaints by the U.S. and lawmakers' claims the yuan is kept weak to make exports cheap. The currency, allowed to move 0.3 percent against the dollar each day, has gained 7.2 percent since a decade-long peg was scrapped in 2005.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson last week called on China to let the yuan strengthen. China limits gains to protect exporters and jobs. The textile industry says it loses 8.2 billion yuan of annual profit for each percentage point gain.
$1.2 Trillion Reserves
China's foreign reserves grew by $45 billion a month to $1.2 trillion in the first quarter, double the average monthly increase of the past three years, according to calculations by HSBC Holdings Plc.
The jump may be partly explained by Chinese companies bringing home the proceeds of initial public offerings and banks unwinding their foreign currency positions, according to Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.
Last year, Chinese banks and companies raised nearly $51 billion via overseas share sales, almost double the $27 billion raised in 2005.
``The fact that Chinese companies have been rushing to bring in foreign currency and banks are unwinding their foreign currency positions shows that expectations about renminbi appreciation have increased significantly over the last few months,'' Qu wrote in a note.
Retail Sales
Retail sales grew 15.3 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said.
``Exports and investment cannot carry on rising at the current rate,'' said Mark Williams, Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. ``China has to boost consumption, balance growth and remain active in keeping liquidity steady.''
Surging overseas sales provide cash for stock market and real estate speculation and factory investment.
Individual investors are opening share trading accounts at a record rate, with more than 1 million added last week, the Financial Times reported today, without citing anyone.
Manufacturing overcapacity may lead to deflation and turn investment growth into a ``curse,'' the Asian Development Bank said last month. The nation's steelmaking capacity of 462 million metric tons at the end of 2006 was 10 percent more than production.
``The risk is that you'll see strong growth led by investment and you'll get overcapacity that could be deflationary should there be a slowdown in the U.S. and elsewhere,'' said Maguire.
Lending Curbs
Besides interest rate increases, the People's Bank of China has raised the amount of money lenders must set aside as reserves six times in 10 months and sold bills to soak up cash. That hasn't cooled lending growth. Banks made 1.4 trillion yuan of new loans in the first quarter, nearly half the total for last year.
China also uses administrative measures, such as land controls and environmental and energy-use hurdles to cool growth.
``People are concerned that the figure is going to be very strong, and thus more rate increases might follow,'' said John Koh, of Daiwa Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong, before the announcement. ``The most worrying factor is how the government is going to pull it back down -- and nobody knows exactly what the government will do.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 19, 2007 03:02 EDT
By Nipa Piboontanasawat
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy grew at a faster than expected 11.1 percent pace, powered by exports that have inflamed trade tensions and increased the risk of overheating.
Spending on factories and real estate accelerated in the first quarter, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for growth of 10.4 percent from a year earlier, the same as in the previous quarter.
China's government, concerned the boom may turn to bust, may raise interest rates or allow the yuan to appreciate faster to curb runaway investment in property, factories and the stock market. The China Banking Regulatory Commission today cautioned that a trade surplus that almost doubled to $46.4 billion in the first quarter may trigger a rebound in bad loans.
``China needs to raise the cost of capital -- it's still way too cheap, and that means investment is too strong,'' Stephen Green, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai, said before the release. ``Add asset-price inflation pressures, and you have a recipe that is worrying Beijing again.''
China's benchmark stock index fell 2.7 percent to 3215.02 at 1:07 p.m. in Shanghai before the announcement on speculation growth may prompt a rate increase as soon as today. The CSI 300 Index plunged 9 percent in a day at the end of February, triggering a global equities rout. The measure has since soared 30 percent and set a record yesterday.
Consumer prices climbed 3.3 percent in March versus a central bank target of 3 percent for 2007. That's the highest inflation rate in more than two years.
Factories, Property
Urban investment in factories and real estate jumped 25.3 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, accelerating from 24.5 percent for all of 2006.
``Given 60 percent of investment is financed internally, to really cool the economy they need to cool profits,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``The easiest way to do that is allow yuan appreciation -- China's goods become more expensive and profit margins start to get squeezed.''
Trade tensions include World Trade Organization complaints by the U.S. and lawmakers' claims the yuan is kept weak to make exports cheap. The currency, allowed to move 0.3 percent against the dollar each day, has gained 7.2 percent since a decade-long peg was scrapped in 2005.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson last week called on China to let the yuan strengthen. China limits gains to protect exporters and jobs. The textile industry says it loses 8.2 billion yuan of annual profit for each percentage point gain.
$1.2 Trillion Reserves
China's foreign reserves grew by $45 billion a month to $1.2 trillion in the first quarter, double the average monthly increase of the past three years, according to calculations by HSBC Holdings Plc.
The jump may be partly explained by Chinese companies bringing home the proceeds of initial public offerings and banks unwinding their foreign currency positions, according to Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.
Last year, Chinese banks and companies raised nearly $51 billion via overseas share sales, almost double the $27 billion raised in 2005.
``The fact that Chinese companies have been rushing to bring in foreign currency and banks are unwinding their foreign currency positions shows that expectations about renminbi appreciation have increased significantly over the last few months,'' Qu wrote in a note.
Retail Sales
Retail sales grew 15.3 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said.
``Exports and investment cannot carry on rising at the current rate,'' said Mark Williams, Asia economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London. ``China has to boost consumption, balance growth and remain active in keeping liquidity steady.''
Surging overseas sales provide cash for stock market and real estate speculation and factory investment.
Individual investors are opening share trading accounts at a record rate, with more than 1 million added last week, the Financial Times reported today, without citing anyone.
Manufacturing overcapacity may lead to deflation and turn investment growth into a ``curse,'' the Asian Development Bank said last month. The nation's steelmaking capacity of 462 million metric tons at the end of 2006 was 10 percent more than production.
``The risk is that you'll see strong growth led by investment and you'll get overcapacity that could be deflationary should there be a slowdown in the U.S. and elsewhere,'' said Maguire.
Lending Curbs
Besides interest rate increases, the People's Bank of China has raised the amount of money lenders must set aside as reserves six times in 10 months and sold bills to soak up cash. That hasn't cooled lending growth. Banks made 1.4 trillion yuan of new loans in the first quarter, nearly half the total for last year.
China also uses administrative measures, such as land controls and environmental and energy-use hurdles to cool growth.
``People are concerned that the figure is going to be very strong, and thus more rate increases might follow,'' said John Koh, of Daiwa Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong, before the announcement. ``The most worrying factor is how the government is going to pull it back down -- and nobody knows exactly what the government will do.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 19, 2007 03:02 EDT
dan24
Forumer storico
++ CINA: PIL PRIMO TRIMESTRE +11,1%, SOPRA ATTESE ++
(ANSA-AFP) - PECHINO, 19 APR - Il Pil cinese nel primo
trimestre 2007 è cresciuto dell'11,1% rispetto allo stesso
periodo dello scorso anno. Lo ha annunciato l'Ufficio nazionale
di statistiche.
Si tratta di una crescita superiore alle attese degli
analisti, che avevano puntato su un +10,4%.(ANSA).
si ma doveva far crollare ancora di più lo yen e tutte le valute della zona asia...australia...invece il dato li ha fatti schizzare all'insù....boo non ci ho capito una mazza...
un dato del genere li porterà ad alzare i tassi...quindi i cross doveva sprofondare...e non rizzarsi
(ANSA-AFP) - PECHINO, 19 APR - Il Pil cinese nel primo
trimestre 2007 è cresciuto dell'11,1% rispetto allo stesso
periodo dello scorso anno. Lo ha annunciato l'Ufficio nazionale
di statistiche.
Si tratta di una crescita superiore alle attese degli
analisti, che avevano puntato su un +10,4%.(ANSA).
si ma doveva far crollare ancora di più lo yen e tutte le valute della zona asia...australia...invece il dato li ha fatti schizzare all'insù....boo non ci ho capito una mazza...
un dato del genere li porterà ad alzare i tassi...quindi i cross doveva sprofondare...e non rizzarsi
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
In linea di massima si scontrano due linee di pensiero:
da una ,parte c'è chi pensa che aumentare il differenziale dei tassi aumenti il potenziale dei carry. (vedi reazione al Pil)
Dall'altra c'è chi pensa che una economia surriscaldata prima o poi reversa il proprio trend soprattuto in casi di pressioni inflazionistiche in crescita. (vedi reazione ai dati inflattivi cinesi)
Se poi queste pressioni emergono nel paese che è il maggior contributore ad esportare disinflazione si capisce il nervosismo degli operatori.
da una ,parte c'è chi pensa che aumentare il differenziale dei tassi aumenti il potenziale dei carry. (vedi reazione al Pil)
Dall'altra c'è chi pensa che una economia surriscaldata prima o poi reversa il proprio trend soprattuto in casi di pressioni inflazionistiche in crescita. (vedi reazione ai dati inflattivi cinesi)
Se poi queste pressioni emergono nel paese che è il maggior contributore ad esportare disinflazione si capisce il nervosismo degli operatori.
dan24
Forumer storico
gipa69 ha scritto:
quindi alzando i tassi..il differenziale diminuisce ed i carry dovrebbero strizzarsi...è come se il Japan portasse i tassi all'1% esempio...lo yen sprofonderebbe..anzi basterebbe un accenno....al loro rialzo...
no questa reazione non l'ho capita per niente...
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