Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND TBOND V.M. 69 Rischio sovrano, guadagni per sultani
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- Data di Inizio
Madiba
Forumer storico
Madiba
Forumer storico
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
news
-Euro zone rescue plans shrouded in doubt - RTRS
Today 10:33
-GERMAN BUNDS FALL ON REPORT EFSF TO BE ABLE TO BUY BONDS ON SECONDARY MARKET
-AFTER BUYING BONDS ON SECONDARY MARKET EFSF CAN SELL THEM BACK ON THE MARKET, HOLD TO MATURITY, SELL BACK TO ISSUING SOVEREIGN OR USE BONDS FOR REPOS WITH COMMERCIAL BANKS - GUIDELINES DOCUMENT
-Euro zone rescue plans shrouded in doubt - RTRS
Today 10:33
-GERMAN BUNDS FALL ON REPORT EFSF TO BE ABLE TO BUY BONDS ON SECONDARY MARKET
-AFTER BUYING BONDS ON SECONDARY MARKET EFSF CAN SELL THEM BACK ON THE MARKET, HOLD TO MATURITY, SELL BACK TO ISSUING SOVEREIGN OR USE BONDS FOR REPOS WITH COMMERCIAL BANKS - GUIDELINES DOCUMENT
ditropan
Forumer storico
Buondì, qs mattina stavo giusto guardando il nostro caro BTP italiano, certo che è messo maluccio, possibile appoggio tra 97 e 96. Volendo invece fare un poco di sano terrorismo 
c'è già chi parla di rendimenti al 7%, il che vorrebbe dire altre 10 figure down! 
... certo, se ci arrivasse ad 88 sarebbe ottimo x un'acquisto speculativo
... dove il sangue scorre si realizzano i migliori guadagni, anche se questo vorrebbe dire panico x borsaitalia.
c'è già chi parla di rendimenti al 7%, il che vorrebbe dire altre 10 figure down! ... certo, se ci arrivasse ad 88 sarebbe ottimo x un'acquisto speculativo
Allegati
f4f
翠鸟科
gooooood morning bbbbanda
ciao Ditro
la tua lettura dei grafici è del tutto corretta
ma IMHO i grafici hanno rilevanza come misura del sentiment degli operatori e delle loro scelte ( ovviamente)
mentre adesso i destini del BTP sono decisi in una stanza ( dalla quale, e non so se per fortuna, gli italiani sono esclusi, tranne Draghi e BiniSmaghi)
quindi, si tratta di capire se i mercati finanziari siano buoni predittori non del mercato in sè, o dei mercati della economia reale,
ma se siano buoni predittori delle idee ( e delle possibilità ) di MekrlZarkò
imho i mercati seguono più la paura, adesso, che una capacità di prevedere
cioè scontano il worst scenario, per evitare di restarci in mezzo, pronti a salire sul trend opposto se dovessero sbagliare
da notare, ad es, che la liquidità M3 è abbondante
non circola non per questioni di mercato di per sè, ma di aspettative
sempre IMVHO
ciao Ditro
la tua lettura dei grafici è del tutto corretta
ma IMHO i grafici hanno rilevanza come misura del sentiment degli operatori e delle loro scelte ( ovviamente)
mentre adesso i destini del BTP sono decisi in una stanza ( dalla quale, e non so se per fortuna, gli italiani sono esclusi, tranne Draghi e BiniSmaghi)
quindi, si tratta di capire se i mercati finanziari siano buoni predittori non del mercato in sè, o dei mercati della economia reale,
ma se siano buoni predittori delle idee ( e delle possibilità ) di MekrlZarkò
imho i mercati seguono più la paura, adesso, che una capacità di prevedere
cioè scontano il worst scenario, per evitare di restarci in mezzo, pronti a salire sul trend opposto se dovessero sbagliare
da notare, ad es, che la liquidità M3 è abbondante
non circola non per questioni di mercato di per sè, ma di aspettative
sempre IMVHO
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
da notare, ad es, che la liquidità M3 è abbondante
non circola non per questioni di mercato di per sè, ma di aspettative
sempre IMVHO
avucat ma lei e' sicuro la M3 e' grassa, no perche' a leggere in giro pare che quella italika si sta contraendo invece
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
5 Head Scratching Charts ? EFSF Is Failing To Help European Sovereign Debt Markets | ZeroHedge
5 Head Scratching Charts –EFSF is Failing to Help European Sovereign Debt Markets
Stocks hit their low on October the 3rd. They bounced on announcements and beliefs that Europe finally “gets it” and will “solve” the sovereign debt crisis. The S&P hit a low of 1075 and a high of 1233 and is back to about 1220, which is still a healthy 13.5%. Yes, there is more going on than the European crisis, but clearly the belief that the problems in Europe are solved has played a big role, especially in the financials where the return is over 17%. It seems like the market has gotten ahead of itself, and these 5 charts show why.
Italian and Spanish 10 year bond yields have climbed during the period. It would cost Italy and Spain more to issue bonds than when the rally started. Isn’t the whole point of €2 Trillion EFSF to make things better for Spain and Italy in particular? Italy was back above 6% and Spain is right around the 5.5% level, signs that things aren’t going well there.
Well, maybe you could argue that yields as a whole are going up because the world is a better place and there has been a transfer out of “safe” investments into riskier investments. Well, there is definitely an element of that, particularly in the US where treasuries have sold off while equities have risen, but you would then expect spreads on Italian and Spanish debt to be tighter. But they aren’t.
In fact, Italian and Spanish 10 year spreads to German bunds, has increased over the period. Initially they reacted well, but since then they have been widening while yields have been rising, not at all positive.
Ah, but maybe it is the CDS market. That nasty CDS market must be responsible for this. and once all our measures to push CDS tighter go into effect, then surely the bond market will respond. But that doesn’t show up in the data either. Spanish and Italian CDS spreads are actually tighter over the period, and although off of their tights, have been more stable than spreads in the bond market. What is happening is the “basis” the difference between spreads in the bond market and spreads in the CDS market is changing. We had shown that the basis in Italy was extremely wide and it is now in the process of normalizing. The basis is also affected by the strength in the currency as the CDS contract trades in $’s and the bonds trade in €’s. Too many people see the tail wagging the dog. Too many people seem happy to believe that CDS drives the bond market. While they are connected, the bond market is anywhere between 25 and 100 times the size of the CDS market for European sovereigns. It might scare politicians when they see that “fixing” or “rigging” the CDS market to go tighter has no impact at all on the yields or spreads in the bond market (or possibly an inverse effect).
Okay, so Italian yields are higher, spreads to bunds are increasing, all in spite of CDS tightening. All of these things are bad signs for the effectiveness of the “Grand Plan”. Well, maybe no one believes the plan will be implemented (except the stock market). But that doesn’t explain the move French yields and spreads.
The French spread to bunds is now wider than at any time since 1993. Almost 20 years, and for most of that time 1996 until June of this year, it averaged about 20 bps. It is now over 120 bps. That is a big move and a clear sign that the market believe something is going to happen and although that “something” isn’t helping Spain and Italy it is certainly hurting France. French spreads are entering the stage where we can start talking about F PIIGS soon. Contagion is spreading. Sarkozy is running around Europe trying to save the rest, and he should be worrying about his own problems. This is exactly how it started for each of the other countries that eventually went off the cliff or are nearing the cliff. Rather than preventing contagion, their actions are spreading it. France needs to do something to fix this fast, and forcing bigger and more complex and flexible EFSF is not helping. Whatever is going on with Spanish and Italian bonds since the EFSF rally started, is bad enough, but this move in French spreads is truly frightening.
And finally, let’s look at the yields of French and German debt. Both are higher. So far France has born the brunt of the pain, but it could soon catch up to Germany. France which had benefitted from a flight to quality move, is no longer part of the flight to quality trade. Even their 5 year bond yield has risen 60 bps since Sept 30. Since it is largely from spread widening, it can’t be attributed to the “risk on” trade that is allegedly occurring. France has €1.3 trillion of debt outstanding, second only behind Italy, in the Eurozone. If French yields rise materially, how long before that impacts the French budget deficit and economy? This is a very slippery slope and EFSF is causing it, not helping it. This red flag is largely being ignored but all France is doing is opening itself to contagion, not fixing it.
German yields are behaving better. Is it because there is still doubt about the plan? Is it because Germany has been willing to show some discipline? Is it because the flight to safety trade is still on in the European sovereign debt markets? I am not sure why German debt is so well behaved right now, but most reasons that I can come up with, again point to a negative outcome.
My conclusion is some levered EFSF will be implemented, but it won’t “solve” the crisis, in fact it will hasten the spread to France and make the next round that much uglier to deal with and it will come far sooner than anyone believes (it may start as soon as the plan is implemented). In fact, looking at French spreads, it may have already moved to France and we are just too busy to notice.
5 Head Scratching Charts ? EFSF Is Failing To Help European Sovereign Debt Markets | ZeroHedge
5 Head Scratching Charts –EFSF is Failing to Help European Sovereign Debt Markets
Stocks hit their low on October the 3rd. They bounced on announcements and beliefs that Europe finally “gets it” and will “solve” the sovereign debt crisis. The S&P hit a low of 1075 and a high of 1233 and is back to about 1220, which is still a healthy 13.5%. Yes, there is more going on than the European crisis, but clearly the belief that the problems in Europe are solved has played a big role, especially in the financials where the return is over 17%. It seems like the market has gotten ahead of itself, and these 5 charts show why.
Italian and Spanish 10 year bond yields have climbed during the period. It would cost Italy and Spain more to issue bonds than when the rally started. Isn’t the whole point of €2 Trillion EFSF to make things better for Spain and Italy in particular? Italy was back above 6% and Spain is right around the 5.5% level, signs that things aren’t going well there.
Well, maybe you could argue that yields as a whole are going up because the world is a better place and there has been a transfer out of “safe” investments into riskier investments. Well, there is definitely an element of that, particularly in the US where treasuries have sold off while equities have risen, but you would then expect spreads on Italian and Spanish debt to be tighter. But they aren’t.
In fact, Italian and Spanish 10 year spreads to German bunds, has increased over the period. Initially they reacted well, but since then they have been widening while yields have been rising, not at all positive.
Ah, but maybe it is the CDS market. That nasty CDS market must be responsible for this. and once all our measures to push CDS tighter go into effect, then surely the bond market will respond. But that doesn’t show up in the data either. Spanish and Italian CDS spreads are actually tighter over the period, and although off of their tights, have been more stable than spreads in the bond market. What is happening is the “basis” the difference between spreads in the bond market and spreads in the CDS market is changing. We had shown that the basis in Italy was extremely wide and it is now in the process of normalizing. The basis is also affected by the strength in the currency as the CDS contract trades in $’s and the bonds trade in €’s. Too many people see the tail wagging the dog. Too many people seem happy to believe that CDS drives the bond market. While they are connected, the bond market is anywhere between 25 and 100 times the size of the CDS market for European sovereigns. It might scare politicians when they see that “fixing” or “rigging” the CDS market to go tighter has no impact at all on the yields or spreads in the bond market (or possibly an inverse effect).
Okay, so Italian yields are higher, spreads to bunds are increasing, all in spite of CDS tightening. All of these things are bad signs for the effectiveness of the “Grand Plan”. Well, maybe no one believes the plan will be implemented (except the stock market). But that doesn’t explain the move French yields and spreads.
The French spread to bunds is now wider than at any time since 1993. Almost 20 years, and for most of that time 1996 until June of this year, it averaged about 20 bps. It is now over 120 bps. That is a big move and a clear sign that the market believe something is going to happen and although that “something” isn’t helping Spain and Italy it is certainly hurting France. French spreads are entering the stage where we can start talking about F PIIGS soon. Contagion is spreading. Sarkozy is running around Europe trying to save the rest, and he should be worrying about his own problems. This is exactly how it started for each of the other countries that eventually went off the cliff or are nearing the cliff. Rather than preventing contagion, their actions are spreading it. France needs to do something to fix this fast, and forcing bigger and more complex and flexible EFSF is not helping. Whatever is going on with Spanish and Italian bonds since the EFSF rally started, is bad enough, but this move in French spreads is truly frightening.
And finally, let’s look at the yields of French and German debt. Both are higher. So far France has born the brunt of the pain, but it could soon catch up to Germany. France which had benefitted from a flight to quality move, is no longer part of the flight to quality trade. Even their 5 year bond yield has risen 60 bps since Sept 30. Since it is largely from spread widening, it can’t be attributed to the “risk on” trade that is allegedly occurring. France has €1.3 trillion of debt outstanding, second only behind Italy, in the Eurozone. If French yields rise materially, how long before that impacts the French budget deficit and economy? This is a very slippery slope and EFSF is causing it, not helping it. This red flag is largely being ignored but all France is doing is opening itself to contagion, not fixing it.
German yields are behaving better. Is it because there is still doubt about the plan? Is it because Germany has been willing to show some discipline? Is it because the flight to safety trade is still on in the European sovereign debt markets? I am not sure why German debt is so well behaved right now, but most reasons that I can come up with, again point to a negative outcome.
My conclusion is some levered EFSF will be implemented, but it won’t “solve” the crisis, in fact it will hasten the spread to France and make the next round that much uglier to deal with and it will come far sooner than anyone believes (it may start as soon as the plan is implemented). In fact, looking at French spreads, it may have already moved to France and we are just too busy to notice.
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