NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--CIT Group's (CIT) failure to secure government support sent investors scurrying for cover, as some prominent analysts called on them to brace for a bankruptcy.
A bondholder call is currently being held with restructuring firm Houlihan Lokey, according to two CIT bondholders. The purpose of the call is to discuss options and possibly form a bondholders' committee, although the two bondholders said no such committee has been formed yet.
The same bondholders said a possible debt exchange could involve trading in unsecured near-term bond maturities for secured debt using unencumbered assets, as well as extending the maturity of the debt.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, CIT has given its bondholders 24 hours to come up with $2 billion in rescue financing, saying without help it will likely file for bankruptcy protection from creditors. Even that figure, however, could prove insufficient.
"We believe the figure is in the range of $4 to $6 billion+ making outside capital sources shy away from such a heavy recapitalization," wrote research firm CreditSights in a note early Thursday morning. "We believe the prudent course for bondholders is to brace for bankruptcy."
As Bank of America Merrill Lynch put it in a recent note, CIT, with only 1% of the U.S. lending market, is clearly not too big to fail in the government's eyes - which gives it fewer options. Fitch Ratings on Thursday downgraded its rating on CIT and its subsidiaries to C from BB-, indicating that "default of some kind appears imminent or inevitable." :-(