Certificati di investimento - Capitolo 9

FSMN ECON/DATA FOR TODAY

• US GDP Growth Rate 2nd Estimate is expected at -0.5%, signaling a contraction from the prior 3.0%, pointing to slowing economic growth this quarter. This could weigh on stocks as growth concerns rise. Bonds may benefit as investors seek safety amid weaker growth signals. The dollar could weaken as slower growth dampens appetite for riskier assets.

• US Corporate Profits Preliminary for the quarter forecast a decline of -3.3%, down from prior 1.8%, which may pressure earnings sentiment in stock markets, particularly sectors sensitive to corporate profit cycles like $AAPL Apple and others.

• US Core PCE Prices QoQ 2nd Estimate is expected at 3.5%, up vs prior 2.5%. Rising core inflation tends to increase expectations for tighter Fed policy or slower rate cuts, possibly pressuring bonds (higher yields), supporting the dollar strength as hawkish sentiment increases.

• US Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims data will be monitored for labor market strength. Stable or rising claims may hint at weakening labor conditions, negative for stocks and dollar, positive for bonds. Strong labor numbers could have the opposite effect.

• US GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Estimate projected to rise to 3.8% from prior 2.0%, reinforcing inflation risks, potentially pushing bond yields up and supporting the dollar.

• US Real Consumer Spending QoQ 2nd Estimate expected to weaken at -3.1%, down from 6.3%, suggesting weaker consumer demand. This could pressure stocks, particularly consumer discretionary segments, and may weigh on the dollar.

• NAHB Housing Market Index released today offers fresh insight into housing sector sentiment; solid readings support stocks and dollar via confidence in the economy, while weakness may push bonds higher.

• Market attention remains on upcoming Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole Symposium. His tone could greatly move stocks, bonds, and dollar depending on inflation and labor market commentary.

Summary TL;DR: Watch today's key data for signs of US economic slowdown and rising inflation. Slowing GDP and consumer spending weigh on stocks and dollar, while elevated inflation and core PCE metrics support the dollar and may pressure bonds with yield rises. Labor market claims and housing data add nuance. Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks will be critical for near-term market direction. Traders should brace for volatility as growth-inflation dynamics clash.
 

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