Cotone ... inizia a farsi interessante ... per ora attendiamo di vedere dove si ferma.
E'ancora in caduta libera, dunque non anticipiamo. Anzi sarebbe il caso di mettersi long sul corn con questa bella notizia !!!
Okkio che quì chiedono 1700€ di margine ed ogni punto di salita o discesa sono 500$ .... dunque se si anticipa troppo ci si spelazza il conto di non poco !!!!
ODJ USDA Report: Cotton Acreage Neutral-Slightly Bearish
- Analysts
(Repeating)
-- USDA Pegs Cotton Acres At 13.947 Million; Higher Than Analyst Estimates
By Alison Guerriere
New York, June 30 (OsterDowJones) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture's
2004 spring acreage report for cotton, released early Wednesday, was seen as
neutral to slightly bearish by industry players.
The USDA reported 13.947 million cotton acres, 3.1% lower than March
intentions of 14.4 million acres but higher than the 2003 planted area figure
of 13.479 million acres.
"The number is mathematically negative because it is higher than the
average guess and crop conditions have also improved," said Keith Brown,
principal at Keith Brown & Co.
Market players polled by OsterDowJones anticipated 13.69 million acres,
with estimates ranging from 13.15 million to 14.0 million acres.
A decline was anticipated from the USDA's March intentions as market
sources noted that low cotton prices influenced producers to switch from
cotton and into soybeans and corn.
Sharon Johnson, cotton analyst at Frank Schneider & Co. in Atlanta, had
estimated acreage of 13.89 million and called the USDA's report "mostly
neutral."
However, she added that although the report is neutral, it does run lower
that the average decline of the last 10 to 15 years.
But Johnson noted that acres may not end up as low as the average estimate.
"Over time there we will see actual area shrink," she said.
Johnson expects cotton futures to open near unchanged Wednesday. "The
market held yesterday and closed near unchanged and that is that price
behavior you want to see to substantiate a bottom."
Brown said last year the market was unaware of the Asian demand but that
is not the case this year.
"You might see a sell-off (Wednesday) ... people will wait to see supply
and demand and see what the USDA will change," he said.
But Brown added that the market has become numb to any bad news.
"Psychologically this figure is negative," he said.
However, Brown said he expects the market to open lower, but rally ahead
of the three-day weekend.
TEXAS & BEYOND
Some market players were surprised that the USDA cut its acres for Texas
from its March intentions.
"I am surprised that Texas wasn't higher than its March intention ... so
it better yield well or ending stocks won't be above 4.0 million bales," said
Alan Feild, broker at Iamhedged.com in Memphis.
The USDA reported acres for Texas at 6.017 million acres, lower than the
March intentions of 6.116 million, but higher than 2003 area planted of 5.620
million acres.
Texas accounted for most of the increase in total area planted, Johnson
said.
Area planted in Mississippi was unchanged from the March intentions of
1.10 million acres, but slightly lower than the 2003 figure of 1.11 million
acres.
Georgia saw a slight decrease in acres on Wednesday to 1.330 million
acres, down from the March intentions of 1.350 million but higher than the
2003 figure of 1.30 million acres.
Cotone in discesa libera - notizia del 02/07/2004
Le previsioni di un significativo incremento della produzione mondiale di quest’ anno continuano a penalizzare le quotazioni del cotone. Il contratto di dicembre (CTZ4) ha segnato ieri a 50,11 il nuovo minimo degli ultimi 12 mesi (ytd) ed alla fine ha perso 1,12 chiudendo a 50,24.