Macroeconomia Crisi finanziaria e sviluppi
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stockuccio
Guest
mah ... la Borsa sale con i bilanci falsi ... leggevo che gli earnings 'normali' sono attesi a 28,51 ... http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/SWENLIN.html
con un P/E medio di 15 ... moltiplichiamo 15 diciamo per 30 ... lo S&P dovrebbe andare a 450
una volta si diceva sell in may ... ormai ci siamo
comunque sia ... bohhh
PS ... vorrei esprimere il mio disgusto ... per non dire altro ... per il 10 bis di Sacconi http://www.inviatospeciale.com/2009/04/morti-lavoro-il-governo-ammazza-i-processi/
se nessun italiano votasse alle elezioni forse ci si leverebbe questa marmaglia dalle @@
con un P/E medio di 15 ... moltiplichiamo 15 diciamo per 30 ... lo S&P dovrebbe andare a 450
una volta si diceva sell in may ... ormai ci siamo
comunque sia ... bohhh
PS ... vorrei esprimere il mio disgusto ... per non dire altro ... per il 10 bis di Sacconi http://www.inviatospeciale.com/2009/04/morti-lavoro-il-governo-ammazza-i-processi/
se nessun italiano votasse alle elezioni forse ci si leverebbe questa marmaglia dalle @@
Ultima modifica di un moderatore:
Broker88
Senior Member
Io sto iniziando ad avere paura di questo rialzo e vorrei fare cash, ma dall'altra parte c'è la consapevolezza di essere dentro ad "occasioni" che se la borsa non storna ma consolida avrei gettato nel ces.. guadagnandoci solo gli spiccioli.
La scelta è ardua
Imark
Forumer storico
Alcuni istituti di ricerca in campo finanziario e macroeconmico si spingono a postulare un calo del PIL tedesco nell'ordine del 6% quest'anno, subendo una ulteriore contrazione il prossimo anno....
German Economy Will Shrink 6% This Year, Forecasters Say
By Tony Czuczka and Brian Parkin
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s economy will shrink 6 percent this year and also contract in 2010 as the deepest recession since World War II worsens on plunging exports, the country’s leading economic forecasters said.
Europe’s largest economy will see its budget deficit jump to 3.7 percent of gross domestic product this year and to 5.5 percent in 2010, fueled by government stimulus spending and falling tax revenue, the leading economic institutes said in their half-yearly report today.
Germany will lose 1 million jobs this year, pushing the number of unemployed above 4 million, said the report released in Berlin. The jobless rate will rise to 10.8 percent next year with an average 4.7 million unemployed, the report said.
“In the spring of 2009, Germany finds itself in the deepest recession since the establishment of the federal republic,” the postwar German state founded in 1949, the report said. Gross domestic product will decline by 0.5 percent next year as the economy may head toward “stabilization,” it said.
Noting two fiscal stimulus programs agreed by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government since last fall, the report said those measures haven’t solved “the problems of the banking sector” that threaten to grow into a “full-blown credit squeeze” if they aren’t tackled as a priority.
Germany doesn’t need a third stimulus plan, the institutes said in their joint report, backing Merkel’s position. Instead, the government should increase pressure on banks and possibly “force them to accept state aid” or be nationalized as a last resort, the report said.
The institutes are: the Kiel-based IfW, the Essen-based RWI, Vienna’s Institute for Higher Studies; Munich’s Ifo, the Swiss Technical College, or ETH, in Zurich; and a group comprising IWH, Vienna-based Wifo and the labor union-affiliated IMK.
German Economy Will Shrink 6% This Year, Forecasters Say
By Tony Czuczka and Brian Parkin
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s economy will shrink 6 percent this year and also contract in 2010 as the deepest recession since World War II worsens on plunging exports, the country’s leading economic forecasters said.
Europe’s largest economy will see its budget deficit jump to 3.7 percent of gross domestic product this year and to 5.5 percent in 2010, fueled by government stimulus spending and falling tax revenue, the leading economic institutes said in their half-yearly report today.
Germany will lose 1 million jobs this year, pushing the number of unemployed above 4 million, said the report released in Berlin. The jobless rate will rise to 10.8 percent next year with an average 4.7 million unemployed, the report said.
“In the spring of 2009, Germany finds itself in the deepest recession since the establishment of the federal republic,” the postwar German state founded in 1949, the report said. Gross domestic product will decline by 0.5 percent next year as the economy may head toward “stabilization,” it said.
Noting two fiscal stimulus programs agreed by Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government since last fall, the report said those measures haven’t solved “the problems of the banking sector” that threaten to grow into a “full-blown credit squeeze” if they aren’t tackled as a priority.
Germany doesn’t need a third stimulus plan, the institutes said in their joint report, backing Merkel’s position. Instead, the government should increase pressure on banks and possibly “force them to accept state aid” or be nationalized as a last resort, the report said.
The institutes are: the Kiel-based IfW, the Essen-based RWI, Vienna’s Institute for Higher Studies; Munich’s Ifo, the Swiss Technical College, or ETH, in Zurich; and a group comprising IWH, Vienna-based Wifo and the labor union-affiliated IMK.
aurelianuse
Nuovo forumer
io invece non sono liquido per nulla e questo inizia a preoccuparmi un po'.
stockuccio
Guest
il nazista era una 'sola' ... ha preso i dati da http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS180066+06-Apr-2009+BW20090406 ... il punto 5 del suo messaggio al mondo lo ha copiato di sana pianta 
è uscita la terza parte in italiano dei francesi
... ha preso i dati da http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS180066+06-Apr-2009+BW20090406 ... il punto 5 del suo messaggio al mondo lo ha copiato di sana pianta è uscita la terza parte in italiano dei francesi
TheLondoner
Forumer storico
Io sto iniziando ad avere paura di questo rialzo e vorrei fare cash, ma dall'altra parte c'è la consapevolezza di essere dentro ad "occasioni" che se la borsa non storna ma consolida avrei gettato nel ces.. guadagnandoci solo gli spiccioli.
La scelta è ardua
ti dico la mia... alla tua domanda mi sono risposto un mese fa ed ho portato a casa i gain....un po' pentito xchè in questo mese le quotazioni sono andate ben oltre...ma stai sicuro che con la situazione che c'è in giro a questi prezzi l'affare lo fa sicuramente chi vende.
VENDI e PENTITI fratello.
PERO' il rischio c'è ed quello di rimanere senza un'adeguata remunerazione fissa del proprio capitale....
stockuccio
Guest
la prima volta che riportai Turner non mi prese i link ... in seguito li sistemai nel post 1068 ... un post del 6 aprile conferma uno del 19 aprile ... la frase identica ... oppure reuters ha riportato i veri dati il 6 aprile in quell'articolo che prendeva spunto da una ricerca indipendente del 19 marzo ... inoltre lo stress test è stato posticipato
comunque lo stress test è una favola per me divertente ... non farò alcuno sforzo per cercare di capire quello che uscirà ... a proposito domani dovrebbe uscire la metodologia che dicono di aver utilizzato ... metodologia
(Teleborsa) - Roma, 23 apr - Il Parlamento europeo ha approvato oggi un nuovo regolamento per le agenzie di rating, colpevoli secondo alcuni attori della finanza di non aver saputo anticipare la crisi. L'Europarlamento ha imposto l'obbligo alle agenzie di rating di registrarsi per poter operare in Europa e di fornire garanzie di indipendenza. Fino ad oggi era un'attività non sottoposta ad alcun controllo.
"Il Parlamento ha adottato un regolamento che introduce un quadro comune per migliorare l'integrità, la trasparenza, la responsabilità, la governance e l'affidabilità delle attività di rating del credito, contribuendo alla qualità dei rating e garantendo un'elevata protezione degli investitori. Fissa quindi le condizioni per l'emissione dei rating e disposizioni sull'organizzazione e l'esercizio delle attività delle agenzie, per promuoverne l'indipendenza e prevenire i conflitti di interesse", si legge nella nota. Ricordiamo che le agenzie di rating classificano titoli azionari, banche e imprese in base al loro grado di affidabilità finanziaria.
comunque lo stress test è una favola per me divertente ... non farò alcuno sforzo per cercare di capire quello che uscirà ... a proposito domani dovrebbe uscire la metodologia che dicono di aver utilizzato ... metodologia
(Teleborsa) - Roma, 23 apr - Il Parlamento europeo ha approvato oggi un nuovo regolamento per le agenzie di rating, colpevoli secondo alcuni attori della finanza di non aver saputo anticipare la crisi. L'Europarlamento ha imposto l'obbligo alle agenzie di rating di registrarsi per poter operare in Europa e di fornire garanzie di indipendenza. Fino ad oggi era un'attività non sottoposta ad alcun controllo.
"Il Parlamento ha adottato un regolamento che introduce un quadro comune per migliorare l'integrità, la trasparenza, la responsabilità, la governance e l'affidabilità delle attività di rating del credito, contribuendo alla qualità dei rating e garantendo un'elevata protezione degli investitori. Fissa quindi le condizioni per l'emissione dei rating e disposizioni sull'organizzazione e l'esercizio delle attività delle agenzie, per promuoverne l'indipendenza e prevenire i conflitti di interesse", si legge nella nota. Ricordiamo che le agenzie di rating classificano titoli azionari, banche e imprese in base al loro grado di affidabilità finanziaria.
lorenzo63
Age quod Agis
The U.K. Nightmare Scenario
Officials at the Bank of England are haunted by a nightmare scenario: a loss of overseas investor confidence that leaves the government unable to sell bonds and triggers a collapse in sterling.
That would pave the way for a showdown between an independent central bank determined to preserve the credibility of its inflation target and a desperate government demanding the BOE print money simply to monetize its debt.
Wednesday's reckless budget has brought that scenario a step closer, even if it is not yet what the BOE expects. But the government's plan to borrow 12.6% of gross domestic product this year and £700 billion ($1.02 billion) over the next five years certainly makes the BOE's task much harder. At the least, higher borrowing costs seem inevitable, making it less likely the BOE can hit its inflation target without a further risky expansion of quantitative easing.
True, the government doesn't seem to face any imminent problems in selling gilts. Despite projected gilt sales of £220 billion this year -- four and a half times average issuance in the prior 10 years -- the Debt Management Office (DMO) can rely on strong demand from several sources, not least the BOE itself, which will mop up at least £75 billion of gilts in the secondary market and the U.K. banks, which will soon be forced to buy billions of pounds of gilts under the Financial Services Authority's new liquidity rules.
Even so, there are two aspects of the DMO's gilt issuance program that should worry investors. First, the amount of issuance maturing in up to seven years is very high at £74 billion. That raises the prospect of significant medium-term refinancing risk. Last year's issuance alone added £55 billion to debt maturing between 2011 and 2015, a period when not only will the government still be borrowing more than 5% of GDP but the BOE may be trying to offload the gilts it is buying this year.
Meanwhile the lion's share of the increased issuance will be medium-dated gilts maturing in seven to 15 years -- right where the BOE is focusing its firepower. The DMO plans to double issuance at these maturities to £70 billion.
Sure, the DMO needs to access the most liquid part of the market, but the BOE would like the DMO to be issuing more long-dated gilts even if that implies higher short-term interest costs. Instead the DMO risks undermining quantitative easing. Ten-year gilt yields have already risen to 3.54%, reversing nearly all the drop in yields since quantitative easing began.
Of course, the BOE can always print more money. That may be what the market expects. The relationship between the government's net cash requirement and 10-year asset-swapped gilt yields, which usually move together, has completely broken down; yields are 70 basis points below where they should be, according to Barclays Capital. That only makes sense if the market thinks the BOE will foot the bill for the government's debts.
But a big expansion in quantitative easing -- already huge at 5% of GDP -- carries risks. It stores up trouble for the future, increasing bank sector reserves that will eventually need to be mopped up before they trigger an inflationary surge while adding to the BOE's stock of gilts that will one day need to be sold.
More importantly, it would fuel suspicions the BOE is simply monetizing the government's debt, further undermining the U.K.'s credibility -- and potentially precipitating the BOE's nightmare scenario.
That leaves the BOE in an invidious position. Its own credibility is all that stands between the U.K. and a full-blown financial crisis. Yet thanks to the government's refusal to spell out a credible plan to reduce government borrowing, the BOE finds itself at the mercy of foreign investors, who by the end of last year held 35% of gilts.
It wouldn't take much -- a further collapse in the public finances, another bank bailout or signs of a surge in inflation -- to undermine sterling and prompt the showdown the BOE fears.
The government could yet be forced to deliver a proper budget before the year is out
Officials at the Bank of England are haunted by a nightmare scenario: a loss of overseas investor confidence that leaves the government unable to sell bonds and triggers a collapse in sterling.
That would pave the way for a showdown between an independent central bank determined to preserve the credibility of its inflation target and a desperate government demanding the BOE print money simply to monetize its debt.
Wednesday's reckless budget has brought that scenario a step closer, even if it is not yet what the BOE expects. But the government's plan to borrow 12.6% of gross domestic product this year and £700 billion ($1.02 billion) over the next five years certainly makes the BOE's task much harder. At the least, higher borrowing costs seem inevitable, making it less likely the BOE can hit its inflation target without a further risky expansion of quantitative easing.
True, the government doesn't seem to face any imminent problems in selling gilts. Despite projected gilt sales of £220 billion this year -- four and a half times average issuance in the prior 10 years -- the Debt Management Office (DMO) can rely on strong demand from several sources, not least the BOE itself, which will mop up at least £75 billion of gilts in the secondary market and the U.K. banks, which will soon be forced to buy billions of pounds of gilts under the Financial Services Authority's new liquidity rules.
Even so, there are two aspects of the DMO's gilt issuance program that should worry investors. First, the amount of issuance maturing in up to seven years is very high at £74 billion. That raises the prospect of significant medium-term refinancing risk. Last year's issuance alone added £55 billion to debt maturing between 2011 and 2015, a period when not only will the government still be borrowing more than 5% of GDP but the BOE may be trying to offload the gilts it is buying this year.
Meanwhile the lion's share of the increased issuance will be medium-dated gilts maturing in seven to 15 years -- right where the BOE is focusing its firepower. The DMO plans to double issuance at these maturities to £70 billion.
Sure, the DMO needs to access the most liquid part of the market, but the BOE would like the DMO to be issuing more long-dated gilts even if that implies higher short-term interest costs. Instead the DMO risks undermining quantitative easing. Ten-year gilt yields have already risen to 3.54%, reversing nearly all the drop in yields since quantitative easing began.
Of course, the BOE can always print more money. That may be what the market expects. The relationship between the government's net cash requirement and 10-year asset-swapped gilt yields, which usually move together, has completely broken down; yields are 70 basis points below where they should be, according to Barclays Capital. That only makes sense if the market thinks the BOE will foot the bill for the government's debts.
But a big expansion in quantitative easing -- already huge at 5% of GDP -- carries risks. It stores up trouble for the future, increasing bank sector reserves that will eventually need to be mopped up before they trigger an inflationary surge while adding to the BOE's stock of gilts that will one day need to be sold.
More importantly, it would fuel suspicions the BOE is simply monetizing the government's debt, further undermining the U.K.'s credibility -- and potentially precipitating the BOE's nightmare scenario.
That leaves the BOE in an invidious position. Its own credibility is all that stands between the U.K. and a full-blown financial crisis. Yet thanks to the government's refusal to spell out a credible plan to reduce government borrowing, the BOE finds itself at the mercy of foreign investors, who by the end of last year held 35% of gilts.
It wouldn't take much -- a further collapse in the public finances, another bank bailout or signs of a surge in inflation -- to undermine sterling and prompt the showdown the BOE fears.
The government could yet be forced to deliver a proper budget before the year is out
Broker88
Senior Member
ti dico la mia... alla tua domanda mi sono risposto un mese fa ed ho portato a casa i gain....un po' pentito xchè in questo mese le quotazioni sono andate ben oltre...ma stai sicuro che con la situazione che c'è in giro a questi prezzi l'affare lo fa sicuramente chi vende.
VENDI e PENTITI fratello.
PERO' il rischio c'è ed quello di rimanere senza un'adeguata remunerazione fissa del proprio capitale....
Eh fratello, l'intenzione è quella...
Per ora mi sto limitando a vendere dove mi ero esposto troppo, per il resto sto tenendo ma sempre con più difficoltà.
Purtroppo vendendo e non comprando nulla significa avere l'1,25% lordo del c/c
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