Macroeconomia Crisi finanziaria e sviluppi (2 lettori)

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Pianeta Cina :


Fonte : AGIChina24

Pechino, 16 luglio -

La Cina accelera: il tasso di crescita del prodotto interno lordo registrato dall’Ufficio Nazionale di Statistica nel secondo trimestre 2009 è del +7.9%,
un balzo in avanti rispetto al +6.1% dei primi tre mesi dell’anno, il peggiore risultato in più di un decennio.

Il merito del miglioramento, secondo i funzionari del Bureau,
va attribuito alle aggressive politiche fiscali e monetarie lanciate dal governo alla fine del 2008,
sostenute soprattutto grazie a un aumento senza precedenti dei prestiti concessi dalle banche statali.

"Nonostante i nuovi dati mostrino cambiamenti incoraggianti,
ci sono ancora numerosi fattori volatili e incerti che stanno agendo sull’economia cinese.

Inoltre, questa crescita appare sbilanciata,con differenze consistenti tra provincia e provincia" ha commentato il portavoce dell’Ufficio Nazionale di Statistica Li Xiaochaoù.

Le statistiche del Bureau mostrano anche una Cina in cui aumentano vendite al dettaglio
(+15% rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2008)
e investimenti in immobilizzazioni
(addirittura +33.5% rispetto ai primi sei mesi dell’anno scorso).

Sotto controllo anche l’inflazione, che fino al giugno 2008 costituiva una spina nel fianco per il governo di Pechino:
l’indice dei prezzi al consumatore ha registrato un -1.1% rispetto all’anno scorso ed è sceso dell’1.7% solo nel mese di giugno.

Ma se i dati dell’Ufficio Nazionale di Statistica hanno spesso attirato le critiche di analisti indipendenti come la CLSA di Hong Kong,
il fattore che causa preoccupazione sia all’estero che sul fronte interno è quello dell’accesso facile al credito.

Solo nei primi sei mesi di quest’anno le nuove linee di credito aperte dalle banche cinesi hanno raggiunto quota 7.36mila miliardi di yuan
(circa 770 miliardi di euro)
contro i 2.45mila miliardi
(circa 256 miliardi di euro) dello stesso periodo dell’anno scorso.

"I dati di oggi mostrano che il governo cinese ha avuto successo nel sostenere la crescita,
ma il quesito principale,
adesso, è per quanto sarà possibile mantenere politiche così espansive" ha dichiarato al Wall Street Journal Brian Jackson, della Royal Bank of Canada.

"Sul breve periodo riteniamo che l’obiettivo continuerà ad essere il sostegno,
ma presto bisognerà fare i conti coi problemi causati dalla liquidità facile.

L’acceleratore sta chiaramente funzionando, ma ad un certo punto sarà necessario tirare il freno".

In una nota pubblicata lunedì scorso la People’s Bank of China raccomanda a tutte le banche di "calcolare attentamente i rischi dei prestiti"
e "assicurare la stabilità del sistema finanziario".

Quella dell’8% è la soglia minima annua di crescita che comunemente viene indicata da analisti e osservatori per mantenere un tasso accettabile di disoccupazione e quindi la stabilità nel paese.
 
METHOS

METHOS

Forumer storico
Crisi, il peggio è alle spalle ma servono ancora stimoli-Roubini

venerdì 17 luglio 2009 13:23


Stampa quest’articolo
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NEW YORK, luglio 17 (Reuters) - Per Nouriel Roubini, uno dei pochi economisti che aveno previsto con precisione le dimensioni della crisi finanziaria in corso, il peggio sarebbe ormai alle spalle.
Le economie avanzate hanno toccato il fondo, o ci sono quasi, e seguirà una ripresa, anche se debole. Gli Stati Uniti, dove la disoccupazione si sta avvicinando al 10%, non usciranno dalla recessione prima della fine dell'anno.
"C'è una luce in fondo al tunnel, gli Stati Uniti e l'economia globale hanno toccato il fondo e hanno iniziato a risalire. E la luce in fondo al tunnel per una volta non sarà quella di un treno in arrivo", ha detto Roubini, ora presidente della società di analisi Rge Global Monitor, agli investitori in un incontro a New York.
"Sotto diversi aspetti, il peggio à alle nostre spalle in termini di condizioni economiche e finanziarie", sono state le parole di Roubini, alle quali i mercati hanno risposto con un rally.
Per risollevare il mercato del lavoro statunitense Roubini ritiene necessario un nuovo stimolo fiscale: "Potrebbe essere compreso in una forbice di 200-250 milioni di euro [...] non troppo piccolo, non troppo grande", ha aggiunto spiegando che se fosse troppo ampio i mercati finanziari inizierebbero a preoccuparsi per la sostenibilità del bilancio Usa, con delle "gravi" conseguenze negative per i mercati obbligazionari.
Quanto all'impatto del potenziale collasso di Cit Group (CIT.N: Quotazione), "non penso penso che potrebbe avere un effetto sistemico come quella di Lehman [Brothers]", ha detto Roubini, per il quale si dovrebbe permettere alla banca di fallire. Altre istituzioni dovrebbero però farsi avanti per assicurare il persistere dei flussi finanziari, ha aggiunto.
L'economista ritiene infine che molte economie emergenti siano nelle condizioni di uscire dalla crisi più velocemente: dopo dieci anni di solide politiche macroeconomiche e di riduzione dei livelli del debito pubblico, queste sono state in grado di implementare per la prima volta misure anticicliche, che porteranno a una ripresa più veloce. Le economie in via di sviluppo invece vivranno nei prossimi due anni una ripresa più lenta.
 

stockuccio

Guest
è un riferimento riconosciuto anche dalle borse :) ... lo vogliono trasformare da dr. doom in dr. boom a sua insaputa :lol:

Roubini Statement on the U.S. Economic Outlook

http://www.rgemonitor.com/emailthis.../roubini_statement_on_the_us_economic_outlook

Nouriel Roubini | Jul 16, 2009
“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over 'this year' and that I have 'improved' my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.
“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If, as I predicted, the recession is over by the end of the year, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.
“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped eight-month long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.
“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus is that the U.S. economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.
“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year. On one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long-term interest rates (because of concerns about medium-term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation), thus leading to a crowding out of private demand.
“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector. Now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.
“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak. I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such a large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.
“So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the U.S. and the global economy. But as I have consistently argued, the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double-dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.
 

stockuccio

Guest
un pò di sano terrorismo

"A Tremendous Secret"

7/14/2009
by John Rubino



Last week FOFOA posted a long article on the coming devaluation of the dollar and how it might play out. He thinks it will be sprung on us without warning -- sooner rather than later:


The point is that during times of transition, surprises are always the order of the day. We have a crazy-out-of-control government that has given in to the temptation of printing its way out of this mess. The deflationists view this as an exercise in futility, while the inflationists say that you cannot print these amounts of dollars without it affecting the markets sooner or later.

A few cunning analysts are hedging their bets saying we will see another deflationary collapse first, followed by a bout of high inflation. But nearly all of the pundits who are still predicting "doom" have lengthened their horizon to several years to make way for the slow speed at which this train is tumbling down the tracks.

Frankly, I'm not buying it.

Call me contrarian, but I say that when the rubber band breaks this time it will snap back with a speed and fury that will make your head spin. In fact, I think that the longer this drags out (and I'm only talking weeks and months now), the more abrupt the correction will be.

Both the 38 year timeline and the 96 year timeline have created an imbalance in the fractional reserve system that has gone parabolic in the last decade. I am talking about gold. No, the price of gold has not gone parabolic, but the ratio of available gold to outstanding paper currency HAS gone parabolic. The central banks of the world are well aware of this. It is why they have slowly, inconspicuously changed from net sellers into net buyers. This gradual shift is extremely significant, because as net sellers they were supporting their own fiat regime. But now as net buyers, they, as a group, are stressing it. Why would they do this unless they knew it was about to reset?

This fractional gold reserve imbalance is the one imbalance the media and governments do not want you to know about. This is the one that will RESET the entire system. This imbalance, once corrected, will make central bank fiat currencies sustainable once again. This is why they are net buyers!

Do I think this magnitude of a reset could happen overnight? Yes, I do. Why? Because that is the way you get the most "bang for your buck". Surprise is the order of the day! "Devaluations always happen by complete surprise as to exert maximum leverage effect."



The idea that we’ll wake up one day to discover that the international monetary system has been “reset” and that our dollar/euro/yen savings have taken a huge hit (while the local currency value of our gold and silver soar) reminds me of an exchange in [ame="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0743269268?ie=UTF8&tag=dollarcollaps-20&linkCode=xm2&camp=1789&creativeASIN=0743269268"]The Virgin’s Lover[/ame], by Philippa Gregory (yes, I like historical romances). The year is 1560 and the young queen Elizabeth rules a country nearly bankrupted by a Spanish alliance that produced only war and debt. The English treasury has been systemically debasing its coins by clipping and shaving them, so that their face value vastly exceeds their gold content.

Elizabeth’s advisors have decided that the monetary system needs to be reset, and have been importing borrowed gold. On the appointed day they intend to call in the circulating coins and replace them -- by weight rather than face value -- with newly-minted coins. This devaluation will transfer citizens’ wealth to the government, impoverishing the former and enriching the latter. And if all goes as planned it will come as a surprise to most of the country.

But Elizabeth’s lover, Sir Robert Dudley, learns of the plan and is not happy:


Elizabeth turned and smiled at him and took his hand and held it to her cheek. “My Robert.”

“Tell me, my pretty love,” Robert said quietly. “Why are you bringing in boatloads of Spanish gold from Antwerp, and how are you paying for it all?”

She gave a little gasp and the color went from her face, the smile from her eyes. “Oh,” she said. “That.”

“Yes,” he replied evenly. “That. Don’t you think you had better tell me what is going on?”

“How did you find out? It is supposed to be a great secret.”

“Never mind,” he said. “But I am sorry to learn that you still keep secrets from me, after your promises.”

“I was going to tell you,” she said at once. “It is just that Scotland has driven everything from my mind.”

“I am sure,” he sad coldly. “For if you had continued with your forgetfulness till the day that you called in the old coin and issued new, I would have been left with a small treasure room filled with dross, would I not? And left at a substantial loss, would I not? Was it your intention that I should suffer?”

Elizabeth flushed. “I didn’t know you were storing small coin.”

“I have lands; my tenants do not pay their rents in bullion, alas. I have trading debts which are paid in small coin. I have chests and chests of pennies and farthings. Do tell me what I may get for them?”

“A little more than their weight,” she said in a very small voice.

“Not their face value?”

She shook her head in silence. “We are calling in the coins and issuing new,” she said. “It is Gresham’s plan -- you know of it yourself. We have to make the coins anew.”

Robert let go of her hand and walked to the center of the room while she sat and watched him wondering what he would do. She realized that the sinking feeling in her belly was apprehension. For the first time in her life she was afraid what a man was thinking of her -- not for policy but for love.

“Robert, don’t be angry with me. I didn’t mean to disadvantage you,” she said and heard the weakness in her own voice.

“I know,” he said shortly. “It is partly that which amazes me. Did you not think that this would cost me money?”

She gasped. “I only thought it had to be a secret, a tremendous secret, or everyone will trade among themselves and the coins will be worse and worse regarded,” she said quickly. “It is an awful thing, Robert, to know that people think that your very coins are next to worthless.”



Now, at least three things can be gleaned from all this:

1) FOFOA is right that the world’s governments stand to gain most from a surprise devaluation, since it will prevent us commoners from preemptively swapping our paper for real things, setting off an inflation that would make an even deeper devaluation necessary.

There's a rumor that I was reluctant to mention when it first started circulating, because it seemed a little too far down the tin foil hat / black helicopter road. But in this context it seems pretty reasonable. According to widely-followed newsletter writers Harry Schultz and Bob Chapman:


”Some US embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of US cash to purchase currencies from those govts, quietly. But not £’s. Inside the State Dept there is a sense of sadness & foreboding that ‘something’ is about to happen, unknown re a date—just that within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days.”

Bob quotes another source that “Panasonic has told their people to be back in Japan by Sept 09.”

Harry Schultz’s remarkable take on the situation:

“My HSL suspicion is that the elite plan another FDR style “bank holiday” of indefinite length, perhaps very soon, to let the insiders sort-out the bank mess which is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want/need to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already under way. It could also lead to a formal US$ devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (& then confiscating it). But devalue against what? The euro? Doubtful. Gold? Maybe. Or vs. the IMF basket of currencies (which seems more likely)—& much in the news recently.

Any kind of bank holiday will push the US$ lower, which may be a bonus benefit to their ongoing scenario of letting the $ fall. Such a fall would get the devaluation they want without having to declare it. In sum, the insiders want more bank & system control, fewer banks & a lower US$. A bank holiday would suit all their needs."




2) The details of the plan will spread within an ever-widening circle of banking and government folks who, like Sir Robert, will demand the chance to profit from the insider trade of the century. Because such a secret is impossible to contain for long, once in place the plan has to be executed as soon as possible.

3) If the rest of us play it right, we’ll be able to at least protect ourselves, and maybe even make out (in percentage terms at least) like Goldman Sachs no doubt will.

Harry Shultz: “Obviously, U can’t open safeboxes if the banks are closed, so plan accordingly. During the FDR bank holiday, thousands of banks never reopened; it was a face-saving way of shutting them down. I would guess the same would occur today; thousands have little or no net value, loaded with debt, bad mortgages.”

FOFOA: “It matters not one iota how well you do in the stock and bond markets leading up to the reset. Neither does it matter what the "gold market" does between now and then. The ONLY thing that matters is how you are positioned on that one - fateful - day! Everything will be reset and surprises will abound.”
 
Ultima modifica di un moderatore:

stockuccio

Guest
non so se questa operazione può considerarsi indicativa delle prospettive dell'immobiliare nostrano

Intesa Sanpaolo lancia cartolarizzazione mutui per 5,9 mld


(Teleborsa) - Roma, 20 lug - Intesa Sanpaolo ha effettuato oggi un'operazione di cartolarizzazione di un portafoglio di mutui fondiari residenziali in bonis per 5.860 milioni di euro tramite il veicolo Adriano Finance, nel quadro del prudenziale ampliamento della già elevata disponibilità di attivi stanziabili presso le Banche Centrali che era stato annunciato nel comunicato stampa dell' 11 novembre 2008. Lo si legge in una nota.
La strutturazione dell'operazione è stata curata da Intesa Sanpaolo e Banca IMI in qualità di Arrangers. Banca IMI è responsabile dell'offerta dei titoli, in qualità di Lead Manager e Book Runner.

L'operazione è articolata in un'unica tranche senior (classe A) di 5.297 milioni di euro - con vita media attesa di 5 anni circa, quotata presso la Borsa di Lussemburgo e cui è stato assegnato rating AAA da Fitch - e in una tranche junior (classe B) di 563 milioni di euro. I titoli sono stati emessi con prezzo pari al 100% del capitale nominale e pagheranno una cedola a tasso di interesse variabile sull'Euribor a 6 mesi.

Entrambe le classi di titoli sono state integralmente sottoscritte da Intesa Sanpaolo. Intesa Sanpaolo è stata assistita nella strutturazione dell'operazione dallo studio legale Paul Hastings.
 
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