L'agenzia Standard & Poor's ha ridotto il rating della Grecia ad A-/A-2 con outlook stabile. Lo scorso 9 giugno S&P aveva posto il rating ellenico sotto creditwatch negativo.
Dal produttore al consumatore...
Greece Sovereign Ratings Lowered To 'A-/A-2'; Outlook Stable
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 14, 2009—Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it had lowered its 'A/A-1' sovereign credit ratings on Hellenic Republic (Greece) to 'A-/A-2'. The outlook is stable. With these actions, Standard & Poor's removed the ratings from CreditWatch negative, where they were placed on Jan. 9, 2009.
"While the ratings on the sovereign continue to be based on our opinion of the Republic's relatively high economic prosperity and EMU membership, the ongoing global financial and economic crisis has, in our opinion, exacerbated an underlying loss of competitiveness in the Greek economy," Standard & Poor's credit analyst Marko Mrsnik said.
From 2002-2007, a strong growth performance was accompanied by a worsening of large structural imbalances, mirrored in persistent inflation differentials within the Euro-area, rising unit labor costs, and a large and growing current account deficit, estimated at above 14% of GDP in 2008 
eek.
In our opinion, the ongoing slowdown in credit growth will likely lead to a
deceleration in domestic demand, thus increasing the risk of a recession and a possibly protracted adjustment.
Following a relatively modest improvement in the general government
deficit since 2004,
Greek public finances are, in our opinion, entering the economic downturn with
high deficits and gross debt estimated at around 3.5% of GDP and 94.1% of GDP in 2008, respectively.
We believe that repeated failures to stick to budgetary plans and a longstanding over-reliance on the revenue side, aggravated by regular deficit-increasing one-offs and expenditure slippages, have led to structural weaknesses in fiscal management.
At the same time, we believe that the sizable share of social transfers,
public wage bill, and interest payments in public expenditure highlight the
need for necessary reforms of public spending.
Moreover, we expect that the government's ability to improve the budget balance through better tax collection and higher property or income taxes is offset by the rising cost of debt servicing and public pressure for additional social outlays, especially against the background of slowing growth.
This, along with what we consider is an optimistic growth forecast
underlying the 2009 budget, make the 2% of GDP deficit target unattainable this year. We believe that
the deficit could surpass 4% of GDP in 2009 and, in the absence of policy change,
is unlikely to improve significantly from this level by 2012.
As a consequence,
gross debt appears to be increasing again and is, in our opinion,
likely to breach 100% of GDP by 2011.
"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that following the ongoing increase in public debt, it will be stabilized at a higher level of around
100% of GDP, amid the sharp slowdown in growth and its subdued trend over the medium term," Mr. Mrsnik said. "Continuous weakening of public finances and consequent further increases in general government debt beyond our current expectations could bring the ratings under renewed downward pressure."
The ratings could be raised on the back of structural improvements in
public finances that lead to a credible and clearly discernible trend in
budgetary consolidation and debt reduction.
This would be further supported by implementation of measures aimed at containing the significant future increases in age-related public spending, as well by carrying out measures addressing the weakened competitiveness of the economy.
