Di chi è questo? (2 lettori)

[brianzatrade]

Così di getto senza guardare grafici e solo leggendo i post mi vengono in mente Fannie Mae e Freddie Mac.
Se ho detto una vaccata pazienza, perdonate l'intromissione.
Ciao

Meglio la femmina....

S.

 

[ElDiego]

Complimenti al grande Warren,
avra sicuramente comprato le azioni Fannie Mae nel
lontano 1980..., successivamente rivendute nel 2000,
per riempirsi di argento. (lo ha fatto davvero) E troppo forte !
Ci vorebbe il grande gipa, per spiegarci tutti gli intrecci
Mae/Mac/stato americano/federal reserve. Speriamo che
saranno bravi a mantenere il tutto, senza sboom immobiliare,
una delle prinicipali cause del crack giapponese d'inizio 80...

 

[ElDiego]

A proposito, leggete un pò quello che ho scoperto per caso
pochi minuti fà (bella coincidenza) :

SCANDAL SHAKES FANNIE MAE
By PAUL THARP

September 23, 2004 -- Widespread doctoring of books at the financial giant behind America's home mortgages — Fannie Mae — is rattling Washington and Wall Street.
An eight-month probe of Fannie Mae by in-house regulators was disclosed yesterday by Fannie Mae's board, which said the report sounded alarms about Fannie Mae's "overall safety and soundness."

Fannie Mae's stock took its biggest plunge in nearly six years on the news, skidding $5.06 or about 6.7 percent to $70.59 in hectic late afternoon trading.

Fannie Mae, which has originated nearly $4 trillion of home mortgages in the U.S. — about three of every four — didn't appear in danger of financial collapse but did engage in irregular accounting standards and acts, the report said.

The some instances, executives of Fannie Mae apparently rigged books just to trigger bonuses, the report said.

In other cases, the management stashed some profits on the side in a "cookie jar" to use later on the books in bumpy times to give the appearance of steady a financial performance.

Fannie Mae's board gave no specifics of the scathing report but said its findings "raise doubts concerning the validity of previously reported financial results, the adequacy of regulatory capital, the quality of management supervision, and the overall safety and soundness of the enterprise."

Just a day after the report was quietly delivered to the Fannie Mae board on Monday, one of its high-profile directors quit — Xerox CEO Anne Mulcahy.

 

[ElDiego]

Questa storia di eventuale falso in bilancio non sembra
affatto piacere al mercato...

 

[gipa69]

L'argomento rifinanziamento è di estrema complessità e il fatto che un azienda come Fannie Mae sembra abbia reso i suoi earning costanti cioè abbia cercato di mostrare una costanza di reddito che in realtà la volatilità dei mercati ha negato implica una forte riconsiderazione dello strumento derivato come panacea di tutte le variabili finanziarie.
Certamente con il non previsto calo dei tassi a lungo è possibile che all'amplificazione del movimento abbia contribuito anche l'operatività sui tassi da Fannie Mae.
Il mercato ha allargato leggermente gli spread di Fannie Mae ma si è trattato essenzialmente di uno switch si Freddie e similia e non di una sfiducia totale e questo dovrebbe dare sostegno nel futuro.

 

[ElDiego]

Non solo indagata, ma anche sotto capitale...
Gli indici americani sembrano snobbare i molteplici
problemi di Fannie Mae, malgrado l'importanza di questa
super indebitata società 'monopolistica' nei delicati meccanismi
delle ipoteche. Bah, vedremo, però ripeto che il mercato
immobiliare potrebbe benissimo essere il detonatore/scusa
per una prossima decisa discesa dei mercati.

(ANSA) - NEW YORK, 27 SET - Si ampliano i problemi in casa Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM - notizie) , la prima azienda americana nel settore dei prestiti ipotecari. Secondo quanto riportato dal Wall Street Journal, la società a partecipazione statale, che garantisce ogni anno a migliaia di statunitensi la possibilità di acquistare una casa, rischia di dover mettere in vendita asset per ripianare il proprio capitale, sceso, potenzialmente, sotto la soglia minima richiesta dalle norme federali.
Oggetto di un' indagine contabile della Commissione federale di controllo sul settore degli immobili (durata otto mesi e dalla quale è emersa una sovrastima dei propri conti per 7,5 miliardi di dollari nel bilancio del 2003), Fannie Mae - a giudizio del quotidiano newyorchese - dovrebbe essere sotto il capitale minimo consentito di circa 4,6 miliardi di dollari.
L' ingente somma non è stata comunicata ufficialmente dalla Commissione, tuttavia - osserva il Wsj - considerando la soglia stabilita dalla legge in 31,5 miliardi di dollari e un capitale 2003 dichiarato in 34,4 miliardi di dollari, la cifra definitiva - contando la sovrastima di 7,5 miliardi di dollari - risulta essere pari a 4,6 miliardi di dollari sotto i limiti stabiliti.
L' ipotesi di un 'buco' di questa entità fa scendere altre nubi su Fannie Mae. Proprio la scorsa settimana, la Sec - l' organo di vigilanza della Borsa americana - ha deciso di avviare una indagine informale nei suoi confronti in seguito ai rilievi della Commissione, la quale ha accusato l' azienda di avere utilizzato pratiche contabili non in linea con i principi generalmente accettati e capaci di mettere in serio dubbio i suoi risultati di bilancio.
(ANSA).

 

[FeRR@]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Fannie Mae executives and their regulator squared off on Wednesday, with executives denying any accounting irregularity and the regulator saying the housing finance company's management may have to go.

Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Director Armando Falcon told a House of Representatives Financial Services panel the regulator was "currently considering" if Fannie Mae (FNM) needs changes in top management.

"We're having discussions with the board about the issue of management accountability and confidence in current management," Falcon said.

The hearing comes after a report the regulator issued saying Fannie Mae broke accounting rules to hide earnings swings and to enable managers to reap bonuses by meeting earnings targets.



For their part, Fannie Mae executives said they and their auditors believed they were properly applying complex accounting standards that can be interpreted differently.

"We intended to do the right thing and we took care to do the right thing," Fannie Mae Chief Executive Franklin Raines said.

The panel chairman, Rep. Richard Baker, said OFHEO's accusations underlined the need for a management shake-up.

"The culture of mismanagement in this report must be eliminated and assurances gained that the highest standards of conduct will be consistently practiced," Baker told the hearing. "Never did I question whether the GSEs were professionally managed. Now I do."

Baker, a Louisiana Republican, said Fannie Mae threatened to sue him if he disclosed information about its executive compensation.

At a day-long hearing, Democrats and some Republicans on the panel urged caution in judging Fannie Mae. The Securities and Exchange Commission has yet to offer an opinion, some said. Others suggested some of the criticism of Fannie Mae -- where some top executives have been prominent Democrats -- may be politically motivated.

"We need to let this process work itself out. We should also refrain from hyping these initial findings in an effort to achieve some short-term political gains," said Pennsylvania Rep. Paul Kanjorski, the panel's top Democrat.

The company's stock, which dropped more than 15 percent after the regulator's allegations became public, rose $1.45 to $67.45 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Raines disputed a government allegation that management deferred a $200 million expense in 1998 to meet earnings targets and claim multimillion dollar bonuses.

"This is a serious allegation, and we strongly disagree with it," he said. "We looked into the facts of what happened six years ago and we found no facts that would support the allegation that's in the OFHEO report," he added later.

However, Falcon said his office has documented "Fannie Mae's pervasive and willful misapplication of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles."

"Fannie Mae understood the rules and simply chose not to follow them," he said.

He said the regulator's report on Fannie Mae has implications for its "overall safety and soundness." But he said the company was not at risk of insolvency, and could at worst be undercapitalized.

The Justice Department has launched a probe of Fannie Mae's accounting following the regulator's report.

Fannie Mae Chief Financial Officer Timothy Howard said he believed he was properly applying accounting rules.

"At all times I believed that the accounting applications we adopted were within the boundaries defined by GAAP, as interpreted and understood by our accounting experts both inside and outside the company," Howard said.

Ann Korologos, the senior non-management member on Fannie Mae's board, said the company and its outside auditors "have a disagreement with OFHEO about some aspects of implementation" of two accounting standards.

"To date, that difference has not been resolved. ... The SEC will determine what is and is not compliant with GAAP. The SEC has not prejudged these issues," she said.

 

[ElDiego]

Altra opinione sulla saga Fannie Mae :

Fannie Mae Under the Gun
by Ram Seshadri

For those of us who have been waiting for someone, somewhere to rein in Fannie Mae which we saw as an out of control monster that was distorting the US financial system (the other monster is the Federal Reserve), our long wait was finally rewarded. Fannie Mae's regulator OFHEO, finally found its voice and its religion when they investigated Fannie Mae thoroughly and issued a scathing 200 page report on Fannie Mae and its management. We were overjoyed when the same regulator called for the heads of Fannie Mae to resign or be forced out.

The stock took a mighty tumble and even some of the Wall Street cheerleaders finally pulled in their pompoms a little bit.

I have been expecting since the beginning of the year that Fannie Mae blows up sometime this year. I think this is the beginning of the end for the old Fannie Mae as we know it. I am almost certain that the "20% predictable earnings growth Fannie" that Peter Lynch was fond of is dead and therefore immortal. It will not come back. The new Fannie Mae will be a $30 stock and grow with the economy and fall with the housing market. How am I so sure?

Take a look at the chart below: it's the 3-month chart of the long bond prices (10 year and out).

Notice how the prices of long bonds have been going up from July through September? This means that yields have been going straight down. But this is totally contrary to what everyone expected in July: remember, we were all worried about rates going up? Including Fannie Mae! If I recall rightly, Fannie Mae in it's last regulatory filing, noted that it was properly hedged for a rising rate environment! In addition, the company provided details of its hedging strategy. It said, that if rates rise, it's impact would be minimal (zero it noted proudly). But if rates fell (a concern that nobody shared at that time), the company would lose about 2 billion dollars in its hedge book. Wow!

Now, all of you remember the nonsense about a "soft patch" that Greenspan was blathering about this summer(see my article on Greenspan to understand his Greenspeak a little better)? Well, the media speculated that the soft patch was what was contributing to the massive decline in yields. Well, I have a different view: notice in the chart how yields fell slowly and tentatively in july and august (i.e. prices were inching up) when the economy was actually slowing. But they took a dive (and prices shot upward) during September especially the last week. Wanna know why?

I think our big brother in the mortgage and treasury market, Fannie Mae, which must have been massively short the treasuries (due to its hedging strategy outlined above) saw the steep rise in treasury prices during early September and decided that it couldn't be short this market anymore. It couldn't afford to miss earnings - so there must have been a mad scramble by Fannie Mae to buy treasuries and the sound of a giant bull marauding into the China shop should have caused quite a dislocation in that market during the last week of September. That's why yields overshot 4% and went as low as 3.9% during that week. And the happy folks in the media speculated that may be the bond market knows something about a recession that the stock market didn't. Sorry folks, but we should know in a week or two from Fannie Mae whether it was the bull in that China shop last quarter - I am 99% certain that they were the ones - the paws on the mud seem too much like theirs.

With that said, let me also bring your attention to the housing market. If Pulte has to cut it's prices on homes by as much 20-25% can you imagine how horrible this housing bubble is? When this bubble bursts, as it almost certainly will next year, you can bet that Fannie will take another big hit to it's derivatives book and its earnings. Now that stock doesn't look like a value play anymore, does it?

Talking about valuation, let me tell where I think you should buy back Fannie Mae stock if you are short it. When I last checked, Fannie Mae had shareholders' equity of about $22.5b on a close to 1b share count (967m to be exact). But if you are talking round numbers, you can say that Fannie's shares are worth about 22.5 bucks in book value. With the coming writeoffs in earnings (due to massive losses in their hedge book), let's assume about $8b in past earnings is written off - that means almost $8 in book value disappears (leaving BV at $14.5). If you value Fannie as just another financial institution on Wall Street, you value it at 2 times book which means Fannie's stock is worth between $28 and $30. So that gives you an idea of how far this stock has to fall between now and next year which is when I think this scandal will finally close. But there will be many rallies and declines between now and then, but I think Fannie's denouement has begun and the clock is ticking on its eventual unraveling.

 

[gipa69]

Funds Get Hit by Fannie Mae Selloff

By Gregg Greenberg
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
9/29/2004 11:12 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Gregg Greenberg





After a turmoil-filled week, every Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE - commentary - research) shareholder knows how it feels to hold a crumbling stock.

But as always, some are feeling more pain than others. A look at which mutual funds were the biggest holders of Fannie at the end of last quarter can help you, humble mutual fund investor, figure out how badly you may have fared in the recent tumult.

By now the Fannie story is familiar to the financially with-it. The stock plunged 15% last week after the Washington-based company's regulator accused the company of playing fast and loose with accounting rules. Many of the allegations made by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight dovetail nicely with the case that RealMoney.com's Peter Eavis has been building for the better part of two years against Fannie's bookkeeping.

The darkening clouds forming over Fannie have hit individual shareholders hardest, of course. Even so, investors in many mutual funds will have felt the impact of the selloff too, as many funds have big stakes in this widely held Wall Street favorite.

According to fund tracker Morningstar, the $485 million Sun America Focused Large-Cap Value fund had the largest exposure of all diversified stock funds as of July 31, with 10.66% of its 24-stock portfolio in Fannie shares. (To give you a sense of the scale of this stock, however, consider that that stake amounts to just 0.07% of Fannie's outstanding shares.)

Another loser in the Fannie selloff stands to be the $1.4 billion Thompson Plumb Growth fund. It listed 7.92% of its holdings as of June 30 in Fannie. That's 0.16% of the stock.

The well-known Clipper Focus PBHG and the Clipper funds, both of which hold Morningstar's highest rating of five stars, are also large Fannie holders at 6.23% and 5.83% of fund assets, respectively.

As would be expected, a number of sector funds focusing on financial stocks will see their performance shaken on account of Fannie's slip. The top three financial sector funds with the largest percentage of Fannie are Janus Adviser Focused Value fund, at 8.59% of assets; Scudder Dreman Financial Services fund, at 8.57%; and Fidelity Select Home Finance fund, 7.33%.

In terms of total Fannie shares, the Washington Mutual Investors fund is the largest holder of stock at over 21 million shares, or 2.2% of Fannie's outstanding stock.

Morningstar, which also provides independent research on individual stocks, says it remains positive on Fannie Mae's business model despite the cloud over its accounting. Morningstar analyst Ryan Batchelor says he believes the company's primary growth driver, mortgage debt outstanding, remains strong. Nevertheless, Morningstar has suspended its individual stock rating on Fannie "because of our lack of confidence in the financial statements needed to accurately value the business."

 

[giuseppe.d'orta]

WASHINGTON (MF-DJ)--Raffica di notizie negative da Fannie Mae, che non è riuscita a rispettare la scadenza per la presentazione dei prospetti finanziari di terzo trimestre ed ha annunciato una potenziale perdita di 9 miliardi di dollari legata ai derivati.
La società ha ammesso di aver violato i principi contabili in essere negli Stati Uniti e che il revisore, Kpmg, non certificherà il bilancio. Finora Fannie aveva sempre affermato con vigore che i pesanti rilievi sul sistema contabile adottato avanzati dall'Authority di settore, Ofheo, erano privi di fondamento. Lo slittamento del deposito dei prospetti implica invece che la Sec è sostanzialmente sulla stessa linea dell'Ofheo, ossia che i conti di Fannie Mae non sono affidabili e devono essere rettificati.