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Elliott Wave Insights, Part II
The Stock Market Crash of 2002
In Elliot Wave Insights, Part I, evidence was presented that proved, beyond reasonable doubt, that the ultimate stock market peak following at least a two hundred year wave was completed in the year 2000. It was shown that the 1990's stock market extension leading to the "Orthodox Top" and "Irregular Top" took on a time frame and magnitude that, when compared to the same stock market pattern in the 1920's, was much larger than that of the 1920's. Proportionately, the increase in time and magnitude suggests that at least a two hundred year Elliot wave was completed in the year 2000.
It was stated in Part I that the pattern of Elliot Waves leading to an Irregular Top must be roughly proportionate to the entire five waves that are being completed. A most interesting phenomenon in Elliot Wave patterns is that the waves of a corrective period (the A-B-C) following a top (or Orthodox Top as the case may be) will begin to correct the most recent part of the five wave sequence first in a sort of, to borrow an accounting term, LIFO (Last In First Out) manner. So when a correction begins to take place, it is impossible to tell how long the five wave sequence was just by looking at the waves as they unfold, since, in the beginning, a short correction will look identical to a long correction. Based on the evidence presented so far in Elliot Wave Insights, it can be stated that at least a two hundred year wave has been completed in the U.S. stock market. However, it cannot be accurately stated that the economic cycle that has begun to be corrected is limited to only two hundred years. In fact, the evidence to be presented in this essay suggests that the time involved is really much longer.
Since the wave pattern for the 1920's is so similar to that of the 1990's, a further comparison of the 1929 stock market chart after the ultimate peak of early September through the crash of October with the corresponding period since early 2000 is most instructive. Doing so will help to answer the two questions raised in Elliot Wave Insights, Part I: 1) Why has not the stock market crashed? 2) Is a crash in the future for the American stock market? The 1929 chart below illustrates the typical Elliot Wave pattern that takes place after an Irregular Top
Please note that the crash of 1929 only constituted the A wave of the correction, and like a typical A wave, it has five sub-waves, which are numbered. The fifth wave fell out of the trend line established by the first and third waves. This is inevitably followed by an extension. The "Orthodox Bottom" was established only 8 weeks after the Irregular Top and the double retracement and extension following it was completed by early November of 1929. The entire A-B-C correction took thirty-four months, so the A wave was completed in only about 5 to 7 % of the total time, depending on whether or not the extension is being included in the calculation. On this basis, it can be observed that the A wave after an Irregular Top is relatively quick. The key word here is "relatively".
Since the 1929 to 1932 decline was, no doubt, merely a corrective wave that was part of the larger five wave sequence that has begun to be corrected since early 2000, it is reasonable to expect that the current downward correction should also be roughly proportional in time and magnitude to the five wave sequence that was completed in the year 2000. (An Elliot Wave premise is that a correction following a fifth wave will equal or exceed the magnitude and time of the larger of the two corrections in the five wave sequence, i.e. waves 2 and 4.) What if the five wave sequence that is being completed is much longer than the 87 year wave that was completed in 1929? If a two hundred year wave was being corrected, the A wave (corresponding to the crash of 1929) should have been completed in less than six months. Suppose the completed wave was even much longer than a two hundred year cycle? In that case, the stock market "crash" corresponding to that of the autumn of 1929 would appear to occur in slow motion. Two more important details should be gleaned from the chart above:
Most of the fall in the crash of 1929 took place in only one week, the eighth week after the peak.
The first sub-wave of the fifth wave surpassed the bottom set by the end of the third wave.
Now, look at the wave count for the stock market since the peak in 2000. The S&P 500 line graph is used to verify the wave count since the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been strongly manipulated by the U.S. government. ("Your tax money hard at work.") Most of that manipulation through 2000 and 2001 involved making the natural upward corrective waves go higher than would have been expected. The U.S. government's budget problems since this spring seem to have put an end to that manipulation. See "The 'Plunge Protection' Page" at http://members.rogers.com/fallstreet1/plungeprotection/plungeprotection.html .
The blue numbering is for the DJIA and the red numbering is for the S&P 500. (The latter can also be considered an alternative wave count for the DJIA.) This chart since the peak in early 2000 is very similar to the chart of 1929 from early September through about the third week of October. Note that the wave count confirms the similarity. The first sub-wave of the fifth wave appears to have been completed and, just as in the 1929 chart, has surpassed the third wave bottom set after the tragedies of September 11, 2001. It appears that the critical "eighth week" has arrived. In other words, the market at the present appears to correspond with the beginning of the one week period that constituted the "crash of 1929". Up to this point in time, the overall decline in the stock market since early 2000 has taken place in a relatively orderly fashion and has occurred rather slowly. After all, the entire A-B-C correction in 1929-1932 took about 34 months. The Dow Jones Industrial average peaked over 32 months ago and the fast part, the A wave, has not even been completed. By the way, that number 34 is a Fibonacci Summation Series number. (That is the sequence 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, etc, in which each number is the sum of the previous two numbers in the sequence.) Stock market waves often take place in a Fibonacci number of years, months, weeks, days or hours. It would seem appropriate for the current A wave to complete its move by mid-November since that will mark 34 months since the Dow peaked in mid-January 2000. However, keep in mind that the S&P 500 did not peak until mid-March of that year. In either case, it would appear that the crash corresponding to that of the third week of October 1929 will be completed by mid-January 2003 at the latest.
Here is a chart giving a little more detail to the wave count since the start of the elongated fifth wave of the larger A wave.
Note that the fast moving third sub-wave is already well underway. If the reader is holding stocks (other than countercyclical stocks such as gold and silver mining stocks), it is imperative to liquidate those very soon, since a rapid deterioration of market conditions is likely to occur within the next week or two. Probably the lows of July this year will be surpassed by mid-October if not much sooner.
All of this relates to the current saber rattling going on within the U.S. government. Why really is the U.S. government, lead by former oil man, George Bush, so anxious to start a war with Iraq? In view of the fact that Bush was in the business of producing oil, he probably well knows the true state of the world's oil reserves. Is it merely coincidence that two out of three of the "axis of evil" countries have some of the largest oil reserves remaining in the world? President Bush's attitude is a not-so-subtle confirmation that world oil reserves are rapidly running out and that the U.S. government is determined, first, to make Iraq's and then, second, Iran's oil reserves come under the control of the U.S. government and the U.S. petroleum industry. The U.S. has the highest per capita energy consumption (and the most wasteful usage) in the world. The government there would like to retain the illusion that life is going on as normal as long as possible. One of the reasons the Elliot waves have peaked is that the current highly technological economic system is based on fossil fuels.
Secondly, what is the urgency in starting a war? Is there an immediate threat that the Iraqi government is going to bomb Washington? Of course not. In fact, Saddam Hussein has already agreed to renew U.N. weapons inspections. But Bush is determined to go to war anyway. Why? Very simply, the U.S. government has technical analysts, too. They know that a stock market crash is imminent. They would very much like to lay the blame for that crash on "The War Against Terrorism" or some such nonsense instead of admitting that most of the blame lies with the U.S. government's irresponsible fiscal policies. Since the fact that the market is in the process of crashing should be evident to all by mid-October, expect the first shots to be fired by then if not before the end of September.
Have you called your broker and put in your sell orders yet? If so, you can breathe a sigh of relief and consider the time frame implications of such a long drawn out A wave. In order to more accurately compare the corresponding sub-waves of the A wave in 1929 with those since early 2000, it is more appropriate to compare "cycles" rather than waves, per se. A five wave sequence and the following corrective A-B-C waves make up a complete cycle. Sometimes current news events will make a five-wave sequence transpire more rapidly or slowly than usual. Subsequently, the corrective waves often will adjust in time so that the entire cycle will be completed in about the same amount of time as would have been expected had the market not been influenced by the news. In addition, the longer the periods of time are that are compared, the more accurate the comparisons are likely to be. Currently, within the A wave started in early 2000, the first and second wave cycle is complete, as is the third and fourth wave cycle. Therefore, it is now possible to compare these cycles with the corresponding cycles in September and October 1929.
The first through the fourth waves in those months took only 28 market days to complete. That translates into 5.6 weeks or about 10.74% of a year. The entire five wave sequence that was completed in early September 1929 began in 1842. Alternatively, according to the S&P 500 chart provided by Global Financial Data at www.globalfindata.com which extends the data back to the early 1800's, 1843 was the low point which began that wave. This means the ratio of that long wave to the two A wave cycles amounts to about 87 : 0.1074 or about 810.0 : 1. Or, using the S&P 500 data, 86 : 0.1074 or about 800.7 : 1. With regards to the Dow Jones Industrial average, those two A wave cycles begun in mid-January 2000 finished in early March 2002 for a total elapsed time of about 25.7 months or 2.14 years. Assuming that the ratio is approximately the same for the five waves currently being corrected as compared with the two A wave cycles so far completed would lead to the following equation:
810.0 X 2.14 years = 1733 years!
The two A wave cycles in the S&P 500 appear to have started later and finished earlier than those of the Dow. The chart shows that the peak and starting point is in mid-March 2000 and the fourth wave of the A wave appears to have been completed around the second week of January 2002. With this data, the equation becomes:
800.7 X 1.81 years = 1449 years.
Remember that both of these calculations can only give us an approximation of when the long wave started. Taken together, it seems that the long five wave sequence which ended in 2000 must have begun around 1500 to 1600 years ago. A prime candidate for the start of the first wave would be the fall of the Roman Empire fell in 476 C.E. Its demise came after an extended period of decline and disastrous fiscal policies. The end of the Roman Empire was actually a new beginning and a relief to most who had been subjected to its rule. Hence, it is plausible that the correction that is currently underway is, in fact, a correction of the entire Elliot Wave sequence which began at the fall of the Roman Empire. But keep in mind that the correction is still in its early stages. As the correction continues, evidence may be produced in the future that the five wave sequence is even longer than that, i.e. that the wave that began around the time of the fall of the Roman Empire was the start of a massive fifth wave. Elliot Wave Insights, Part IV will discuss that possibility and the evidence that the entire economic history of humankind amounts to, in effect, a five wave sequence that began its correction in early 2000. But even if "only" a fifteen hundred year wave has been completed, the implications are enormous.
A correction after a fifteen century wave is likely to last for decades, if not hundreds of years.
As further evidence that the year 476 C.E. marked the start of the five wave sequence, consider the following: As mentioned earlier, stock market moves tend to occur in a Fibonacci number of years. Here are some examples:
1843 low to 1932 low 89 years
1932 low to 1966 high 34 years
1966 high to 1974 low 8 years
1932 low to 1987 high 55 years
1974 low to 1987 low 13 years
1987 low to 2000 high 13 years
1966 high to 2000 high 34 years
1696 low to 1929 high 233 years (See the Global Financial Data website for proof of this.)
Now, is it merely coincidence that the period from the 476 C.E. low to the stock market low in London in 1696 was exactly the sum of two large Fibonacci numbers? (1220 years = 610 + 610 OR 987 + 233) Earlier this year Wally Bently produced an excellent essay about cycles which was posted at this website. Among others, he wrote about a 432 Superinflation Cycle and a 50 to 60 year Kondrotieff Cycle. It is amazing that so many of these cycles are related to Fibonacci numbers. The number 432 is the sum of two Fibonacci numbers: 377 + 55. The Kondrotieff Cycle of 50 to 60 years averages out to 55 years, a Fibonacci number. It appears that economic waves and cycles are very likely to occur in a Fibonacci number of years. This fact adds further credence to the idea that a five wave sequence began in 476 C.E.
The evidence presented in this essay strongly suggests that a market correction is underway that will gradually correct at least the entire five wave sequence that began at the fall of the Roman Empire. This makes complete sense in the context of a world running out of fossil fuels. The Industrial Revolution was based on technology that exploited those fossil fuels as readily accessible energy sources. As these sources are used up, the world economy will be placed squarely back at a level that existed around the time that the Industrial Revolution began. The year 2000 was the perceived peak of the economic cycle. From that point (or earlier) onward, the world's economy is likely to continue to trend downward for the rest of our natural lives. This brings to mind the words of the prophet Jeremiah: "I well know, O Jehovah, that to earthling man his way does not belong. It does not belong to man who is walking even to direct his own step." (Jeremiah 10:23) The Bible sets forth an interesting premise: God has allowed a certain period of time to elapse in which to prove that human independence from God in government, in economics and in life in general will result in failure for humankind as a whole. It appears that we will be witnessing the truthfulness of this premise on a grand scale in the coming months, years and decades until He decides that that we have made a big enough mess of things. At that point it will be time "to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." (Revelation 11:18) Clearly, now is a time for, not only caution in investing, but for spiritual pursuits as well.
Elliot Wave Insights, Part III will cover the effect that the economic downturn is likely to have on the precious metals market and some of the evidence of manipulation of that market.
Denis Paul Bouchard
Taiwan
26 September 2002
The Stock Market Crash of 2002
In Elliot Wave Insights, Part I, evidence was presented that proved, beyond reasonable doubt, that the ultimate stock market peak following at least a two hundred year wave was completed in the year 2000. It was shown that the 1990's stock market extension leading to the "Orthodox Top" and "Irregular Top" took on a time frame and magnitude that, when compared to the same stock market pattern in the 1920's, was much larger than that of the 1920's. Proportionately, the increase in time and magnitude suggests that at least a two hundred year Elliot wave was completed in the year 2000.
It was stated in Part I that the pattern of Elliot Waves leading to an Irregular Top must be roughly proportionate to the entire five waves that are being completed. A most interesting phenomenon in Elliot Wave patterns is that the waves of a corrective period (the A-B-C) following a top (or Orthodox Top as the case may be) will begin to correct the most recent part of the five wave sequence first in a sort of, to borrow an accounting term, LIFO (Last In First Out) manner. So when a correction begins to take place, it is impossible to tell how long the five wave sequence was just by looking at the waves as they unfold, since, in the beginning, a short correction will look identical to a long correction. Based on the evidence presented so far in Elliot Wave Insights, it can be stated that at least a two hundred year wave has been completed in the U.S. stock market. However, it cannot be accurately stated that the economic cycle that has begun to be corrected is limited to only two hundred years. In fact, the evidence to be presented in this essay suggests that the time involved is really much longer.
Since the wave pattern for the 1920's is so similar to that of the 1990's, a further comparison of the 1929 stock market chart after the ultimate peak of early September through the crash of October with the corresponding period since early 2000 is most instructive. Doing so will help to answer the two questions raised in Elliot Wave Insights, Part I: 1) Why has not the stock market crashed? 2) Is a crash in the future for the American stock market? The 1929 chart below illustrates the typical Elliot Wave pattern that takes place after an Irregular Top
Please note that the crash of 1929 only constituted the A wave of the correction, and like a typical A wave, it has five sub-waves, which are numbered. The fifth wave fell out of the trend line established by the first and third waves. This is inevitably followed by an extension. The "Orthodox Bottom" was established only 8 weeks after the Irregular Top and the double retracement and extension following it was completed by early November of 1929. The entire A-B-C correction took thirty-four months, so the A wave was completed in only about 5 to 7 % of the total time, depending on whether or not the extension is being included in the calculation. On this basis, it can be observed that the A wave after an Irregular Top is relatively quick. The key word here is "relatively".
Since the 1929 to 1932 decline was, no doubt, merely a corrective wave that was part of the larger five wave sequence that has begun to be corrected since early 2000, it is reasonable to expect that the current downward correction should also be roughly proportional in time and magnitude to the five wave sequence that was completed in the year 2000. (An Elliot Wave premise is that a correction following a fifth wave will equal or exceed the magnitude and time of the larger of the two corrections in the five wave sequence, i.e. waves 2 and 4.) What if the five wave sequence that is being completed is much longer than the 87 year wave that was completed in 1929? If a two hundred year wave was being corrected, the A wave (corresponding to the crash of 1929) should have been completed in less than six months. Suppose the completed wave was even much longer than a two hundred year cycle? In that case, the stock market "crash" corresponding to that of the autumn of 1929 would appear to occur in slow motion. Two more important details should be gleaned from the chart above:
Most of the fall in the crash of 1929 took place in only one week, the eighth week after the peak.
The first sub-wave of the fifth wave surpassed the bottom set by the end of the third wave.
Now, look at the wave count for the stock market since the peak in 2000. The S&P 500 line graph is used to verify the wave count since the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been strongly manipulated by the U.S. government. ("Your tax money hard at work.") Most of that manipulation through 2000 and 2001 involved making the natural upward corrective waves go higher than would have been expected. The U.S. government's budget problems since this spring seem to have put an end to that manipulation. See "The 'Plunge Protection' Page" at http://members.rogers.com/fallstreet1/plungeprotection/plungeprotection.html .
The blue numbering is for the DJIA and the red numbering is for the S&P 500. (The latter can also be considered an alternative wave count for the DJIA.) This chart since the peak in early 2000 is very similar to the chart of 1929 from early September through about the third week of October. Note that the wave count confirms the similarity. The first sub-wave of the fifth wave appears to have been completed and, just as in the 1929 chart, has surpassed the third wave bottom set after the tragedies of September 11, 2001. It appears that the critical "eighth week" has arrived. In other words, the market at the present appears to correspond with the beginning of the one week period that constituted the "crash of 1929". Up to this point in time, the overall decline in the stock market since early 2000 has taken place in a relatively orderly fashion and has occurred rather slowly. After all, the entire A-B-C correction in 1929-1932 took about 34 months. The Dow Jones Industrial average peaked over 32 months ago and the fast part, the A wave, has not even been completed. By the way, that number 34 is a Fibonacci Summation Series number. (That is the sequence 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, etc, in which each number is the sum of the previous two numbers in the sequence.) Stock market waves often take place in a Fibonacci number of years, months, weeks, days or hours. It would seem appropriate for the current A wave to complete its move by mid-November since that will mark 34 months since the Dow peaked in mid-January 2000. However, keep in mind that the S&P 500 did not peak until mid-March of that year. In either case, it would appear that the crash corresponding to that of the third week of October 1929 will be completed by mid-January 2003 at the latest.
Here is a chart giving a little more detail to the wave count since the start of the elongated fifth wave of the larger A wave.
Note that the fast moving third sub-wave is already well underway. If the reader is holding stocks (other than countercyclical stocks such as gold and silver mining stocks), it is imperative to liquidate those very soon, since a rapid deterioration of market conditions is likely to occur within the next week or two. Probably the lows of July this year will be surpassed by mid-October if not much sooner.
All of this relates to the current saber rattling going on within the U.S. government. Why really is the U.S. government, lead by former oil man, George Bush, so anxious to start a war with Iraq? In view of the fact that Bush was in the business of producing oil, he probably well knows the true state of the world's oil reserves. Is it merely coincidence that two out of three of the "axis of evil" countries have some of the largest oil reserves remaining in the world? President Bush's attitude is a not-so-subtle confirmation that world oil reserves are rapidly running out and that the U.S. government is determined, first, to make Iraq's and then, second, Iran's oil reserves come under the control of the U.S. government and the U.S. petroleum industry. The U.S. has the highest per capita energy consumption (and the most wasteful usage) in the world. The government there would like to retain the illusion that life is going on as normal as long as possible. One of the reasons the Elliot waves have peaked is that the current highly technological economic system is based on fossil fuels.
Secondly, what is the urgency in starting a war? Is there an immediate threat that the Iraqi government is going to bomb Washington? Of course not. In fact, Saddam Hussein has already agreed to renew U.N. weapons inspections. But Bush is determined to go to war anyway. Why? Very simply, the U.S. government has technical analysts, too. They know that a stock market crash is imminent. They would very much like to lay the blame for that crash on "The War Against Terrorism" or some such nonsense instead of admitting that most of the blame lies with the U.S. government's irresponsible fiscal policies. Since the fact that the market is in the process of crashing should be evident to all by mid-October, expect the first shots to be fired by then if not before the end of September.
Have you called your broker and put in your sell orders yet? If so, you can breathe a sigh of relief and consider the time frame implications of such a long drawn out A wave. In order to more accurately compare the corresponding sub-waves of the A wave in 1929 with those since early 2000, it is more appropriate to compare "cycles" rather than waves, per se. A five wave sequence and the following corrective A-B-C waves make up a complete cycle. Sometimes current news events will make a five-wave sequence transpire more rapidly or slowly than usual. Subsequently, the corrective waves often will adjust in time so that the entire cycle will be completed in about the same amount of time as would have been expected had the market not been influenced by the news. In addition, the longer the periods of time are that are compared, the more accurate the comparisons are likely to be. Currently, within the A wave started in early 2000, the first and second wave cycle is complete, as is the third and fourth wave cycle. Therefore, it is now possible to compare these cycles with the corresponding cycles in September and October 1929.
The first through the fourth waves in those months took only 28 market days to complete. That translates into 5.6 weeks or about 10.74% of a year. The entire five wave sequence that was completed in early September 1929 began in 1842. Alternatively, according to the S&P 500 chart provided by Global Financial Data at www.globalfindata.com which extends the data back to the early 1800's, 1843 was the low point which began that wave. This means the ratio of that long wave to the two A wave cycles amounts to about 87 : 0.1074 or about 810.0 : 1. Or, using the S&P 500 data, 86 : 0.1074 or about 800.7 : 1. With regards to the Dow Jones Industrial average, those two A wave cycles begun in mid-January 2000 finished in early March 2002 for a total elapsed time of about 25.7 months or 2.14 years. Assuming that the ratio is approximately the same for the five waves currently being corrected as compared with the two A wave cycles so far completed would lead to the following equation:
810.0 X 2.14 years = 1733 years!
The two A wave cycles in the S&P 500 appear to have started later and finished earlier than those of the Dow. The chart shows that the peak and starting point is in mid-March 2000 and the fourth wave of the A wave appears to have been completed around the second week of January 2002. With this data, the equation becomes:
800.7 X 1.81 years = 1449 years.
Remember that both of these calculations can only give us an approximation of when the long wave started. Taken together, it seems that the long five wave sequence which ended in 2000 must have begun around 1500 to 1600 years ago. A prime candidate for the start of the first wave would be the fall of the Roman Empire fell in 476 C.E. Its demise came after an extended period of decline and disastrous fiscal policies. The end of the Roman Empire was actually a new beginning and a relief to most who had been subjected to its rule. Hence, it is plausible that the correction that is currently underway is, in fact, a correction of the entire Elliot Wave sequence which began at the fall of the Roman Empire. But keep in mind that the correction is still in its early stages. As the correction continues, evidence may be produced in the future that the five wave sequence is even longer than that, i.e. that the wave that began around the time of the fall of the Roman Empire was the start of a massive fifth wave. Elliot Wave Insights, Part IV will discuss that possibility and the evidence that the entire economic history of humankind amounts to, in effect, a five wave sequence that began its correction in early 2000. But even if "only" a fifteen hundred year wave has been completed, the implications are enormous.
A correction after a fifteen century wave is likely to last for decades, if not hundreds of years.
As further evidence that the year 476 C.E. marked the start of the five wave sequence, consider the following: As mentioned earlier, stock market moves tend to occur in a Fibonacci number of years. Here are some examples:
1843 low to 1932 low 89 years
1932 low to 1966 high 34 years
1966 high to 1974 low 8 years
1932 low to 1987 high 55 years
1974 low to 1987 low 13 years
1987 low to 2000 high 13 years
1966 high to 2000 high 34 years
1696 low to 1929 high 233 years (See the Global Financial Data website for proof of this.)
Now, is it merely coincidence that the period from the 476 C.E. low to the stock market low in London in 1696 was exactly the sum of two large Fibonacci numbers? (1220 years = 610 + 610 OR 987 + 233) Earlier this year Wally Bently produced an excellent essay about cycles which was posted at this website. Among others, he wrote about a 432 Superinflation Cycle and a 50 to 60 year Kondrotieff Cycle. It is amazing that so many of these cycles are related to Fibonacci numbers. The number 432 is the sum of two Fibonacci numbers: 377 + 55. The Kondrotieff Cycle of 50 to 60 years averages out to 55 years, a Fibonacci number. It appears that economic waves and cycles are very likely to occur in a Fibonacci number of years. This fact adds further credence to the idea that a five wave sequence began in 476 C.E.
The evidence presented in this essay strongly suggests that a market correction is underway that will gradually correct at least the entire five wave sequence that began at the fall of the Roman Empire. This makes complete sense in the context of a world running out of fossil fuels. The Industrial Revolution was based on technology that exploited those fossil fuels as readily accessible energy sources. As these sources are used up, the world economy will be placed squarely back at a level that existed around the time that the Industrial Revolution began. The year 2000 was the perceived peak of the economic cycle. From that point (or earlier) onward, the world's economy is likely to continue to trend downward for the rest of our natural lives. This brings to mind the words of the prophet Jeremiah: "I well know, O Jehovah, that to earthling man his way does not belong. It does not belong to man who is walking even to direct his own step." (Jeremiah 10:23) The Bible sets forth an interesting premise: God has allowed a certain period of time to elapse in which to prove that human independence from God in government, in economics and in life in general will result in failure for humankind as a whole. It appears that we will be witnessing the truthfulness of this premise on a grand scale in the coming months, years and decades until He decides that that we have made a big enough mess of things. At that point it will be time "to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." (Revelation 11:18) Clearly, now is a time for, not only caution in investing, but for spiritual pursuits as well.
Elliot Wave Insights, Part III will cover the effect that the economic downturn is likely to have on the precious metals market and some of the evidence of manipulation of that market.
Denis Paul Bouchard
Taiwan
26 September 2002
:smile:
