Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Goodbye, Great Bond Bull Market?

[Rottweiler]

I repentini e drastici cambiamenti di "sentiment" del mercato rendono più difficili del solito le scelte degli investitori: euro o dollaro? emergenti o no? corsa verso il rischio o verso la qualità? petrolio e, più in generale, materie prime, oppure no? Il gioco di effetti e controeffetti diventa sempre più complesso.

A questo proposito ho trovato interessante il ragionamento riportato all'interno di un articolo di oggi di WSI sull'evoluzione dei tassi USA e, di riflesso, sul rapporto euro/dollaro:

"Negli Usa tassi di mercato stabili in corrispondenza di listini azionari in rialzo, trascinati principalmente dal comparto delle materie prime, in seguito al recupero del petrolio. La notizia della revisione dell’outlook sul debito Usa, potenzialmente negativa per i titoli governativi Usa, sta invece comportando un calo dei tassi, soprattutto sulla parte trentennale, arrivando a testare i minimi delle ultime 4 settimane.

Il ragionamento degli operatori sembra essere il seguente: se la decisione di S&P servirà da monito ai rappresentanti politici per il raggiungimento di un accordo per la riduzione del deficit, allora è lecito attendersi manovre di austerità all’orizzonte e di conseguenza è più probabile che la Fed in questo contesto continui a rimanere i tassi fermi in prossimità dello 0%."

 

[slowdown]

ciao slow
è che non ho idea di quanto tempo si debba dedicare alla cosa, io non riesco ad essere costante ed il mio timore è non poter dare un servizio sufficiente... poi vado anche in paranoia perchè mi sento in colpa...
in ogni caso non riuscirei a seguire 3d molto frequentati
qualcuno mi sa dare un'idea della cosa?

Ciao,
guarda che non è poi così complicata la cosa , per fortuna questo è un forum civile ...

vai al link dove troverai altre indicazioni

http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/2138046-post83.html

 

[camaleonte]

Governo statunitense, la prossima bolla?

• tweet0
• Stampa

• Focus:
  • CPI CORP
  • CONSUMO
• Temi:
  
  • Lavoro e Carriere

Quotazioni correlate


CodicePrezzoVariazioneCEJ.BE3.150,00
CONSUMO.SN4.605,25-15,32

Segui queste quotazioni

{"s" : "CEJ.BE,CONSUMO.SN","k" : "a00,a50,b00,b60,c10,g00,h00,l10,p20,t10,v00","o" : "","j" : ""}


venerdì, 22 aprile 2011 - 14:03
*Ritorno agli anni ‘70? * I prezzi delle materie prime hanno continuato a salire inesorabilmente durante questa settimana con l'oro e l'argento che hanno toccato nuovi massimi, mentre il prezzo del petrolio si è leggermente attenuato grazie a una interruzione delle violenze nel nord Africa. I dati sull’inflazione statunitense, come sottolineato dall’Indice dei Prezzi al Consumo (Santiago: CONSUMO.SN - notizie) , hanno confermato che gli elevati prezzi delle materie prime stanno influenzando la spesa per i consumi. I dati hanno mostrato che l’inflazione a marzo è salita al 2,7%, in rialzo dal 2,1% registrato un anno fa. Questo dato è di per sé allarmante. Ma si consideri questo: se l’Ufficio Nazionale di Statistica avesse calcolato l’indice CPI (Berlino: CEJ.BE - notizie) secondo la modalità usata tra la fine degli anni ’70 e l’inizio degli anni ’80 questo dato dovrebbe essere considerato significativamente peggiore. Utilizzando tale metodo di calcolo, che non tiene in considerazione le sostituzioni e i miglioramenti nella qualità dei prodotti del paniere, il dato di marzo del 2,7% sarebbe vicino al 10%. Durante la crisi economica che caratterizzò quel periodo, con l’indice CPI anche a due cifre, Paul Volcker, l’allora presidente della Federal Reserve, si interessò molto alla questione dell’inflazione. Egli aumentò di volta in volta i tassi di interesse di 25 punti base, facendoli salire dall’ 11,75%, al momento della sua nomina, al 20% solo nove mesi più tardi. *La crescita sulle spalle di consumatori sempre più poveri * La crescita economia statunitense ha pesato per molto tempo sui consumatori americani. Ora, di fronte al debito del governo di proporzioni astronomiche e al deficit del bilancio che richiederà maggiori tagli ai programmi e alle politiche governative, il consumatore americano è destinato a ricoprire ancora un ruolo
Per ulteriori informazioni visita il sito di Trend

 

[Rottweiler]

Da qualche tempo leggiamo nei nostri threads che si moltiplicano le scommesse su di un'inversione nell'andamento del cambio euro/USD.

Eppure questa commentatrice, nell'elencare le notizie attese la settimana prossima potenzialmente in grado di influire sul cambio, sembra attendersi un ulteriore rafforzamento della moneta unica.

Week Ahead: Jobs Report Looms as Dollar Keeps Sliding
Published: Friday, 29 Apr 2011 | 8:32 PM ET Text Size
By: Patti Domm
CNBC Executive News Editor

Robust earnings reports and new money from fund managers may put a bounce into stocks at the start of the week, but the focus will quickly turn to economic news, especially Friday's April jobs report.

About 20 percent of the S&P 500 reports in the last big week of earnings season, including energy, media and consumer products companies. Warren Buffett meets Berkshire Hathaway shareholders Saturday, and his comments would be followed closely, as he discusses the company, investments and also former executive David Sokol's Lubrizol trades.


The week's economic data features the ISM manufacturing survey, monthly auto and chain stores sales, and most importantly, the monthly jobs report. As of now, economists expect that about 190,000 jobs were added in April, less than March's 216,000.

One of the most important trends financial markets will be watching is the direction of the U.S. dollar, which has been weakening daily. Analysts expect it to continue to fall in the week ahead. At the same time, the move higher in risk assets, especially precious metals and oil, should continue. Traders point to the Fed's meeting this past Wednesday as a fresh catalyst for the move, since it appears there will be no end to its low interest rate policies for months to come.

"I think the only thing which would change this current soft-dollar environment is that next week we would have to see a very strong jobs report, which would make the market reassess (Fed Chairman Ben) Bernanke's latest commentary," said Michael Moran, Standard Chartered senior foreign exchange strategist. "That aside, he reaffirmed that easy policy is here to stay, certainly beyond June and he will keep us posted on their intentions."

Stocks closed out the month of April at three-year highs, erasing all of their late winter losses in the past week. The Dow rose to 12,810, up 2.4 percent for the week and 4 percent for the month of April, and the S&P 500 climbed to 1363, up 2 percent for the week and 2.9 percent for the month. Gold gained 8.1 percent in April to $1,556, and silver, by far the more volatile asset, jumped 28 percent for the month to $48.58 per ounce. Nymex crude rose 6.8 percent to $113.93 per barrel, and Brent crude was at $125.89, up 7.4 percent.

The dollar index fell almost 4 percent for the month, and the dollar lost 4.7 percent against the euro, which was at 1.4815 Friday. Strategists expect to see the euro breach 1.50 in the coming week. That could possibly happen Thursday, the day the European Central Bank meets on rates. The ECB is not expected to raise rates this month, but ECB president Jean Claude Trichet could signal a rate hike is coming in June.

"That could push it over 1.50," said Brian Dolan of Forex.com. "One of the other dollar negatives is an expected weakening in the pace of job creation so both the ADP (private sector payroll data) and the non-farm payrolls (Friday) are expected to come in below March's number," said Dolan. "Obviously, we've had a very nice run up in risk assets, and the month is ending with risk well bid. We'll know well by the end of the week whether the dollar decline is going to continue."

Employment-related data includes the ADP report Wednesday and weekly jobless claims Thursday. The government's April employment report is released Friday at 8:30 a.m.

Both the ISM manufacturing survey, reported Monday, and the ISM services survey, released Wednesday, also have a jobs component. Other data includes construction spending Monday, factory orders Tuesday and productivity and costs Thursday. Auto sales are reported Tuesday and chain store sales are Thursday.

 

[dagoweb]

Un bell'articolo :
La FED influenza i mercati


Un piccolo estratto ( ahia ... )

"Su questo tema, quello cioè della propensione degli investitori, effettueremo degli approfondimenti anche in considerazione dell’ultimo rapporto rilasciato dal Nyse, in base al quale il Margin Debt (cioè il denaro “a margine” utilizzato dagli investitori per effettuare acquisti “a leva”) è molto vicino ai massimi di tutti i tempi (maggio-giugno 2007)."

 

[camaleonte]

A proposito di €/$ o di entrambi, suggerisco la lettura di questo articolo sulla guerra di Libia... :

Voci dall'estero

 

[negusneg]

Return on Equity at 10-Year High Fails to Drive Valuations

By Whitney Kisling, Lynn Thomasson and Nikolaj Gammeltoft - May 2, 2011 10:49 PM GMT+0200 April 25 (Bloomberg)

U.S. companies, earning more from investments in plants and labor than any time in the last decade, have yet to reap the benefits in their stock valuations.

Return on equity at International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) has risen to 68 percent this year from 24 percent in 2005 after the Armonk, New York-based company sold its personal-computer business and reorganized staff. Net income per employee rose to $34,758 in 2010, the highest since at least 1987, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The stock, up 108 percent since the end of 2005 through last week, trades 16 percent below its average price-earnings ratio during the past decade.

IBM’s example mirrors the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, where return on equity has risen six quarters to 23 percent and may reach 27 percent next year, the highest annual level since 2000, analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. That may help stocks overcome economic growth that slowed to 1.8 percent last quarter and extend the best bull market in 54 years.

“We’ve had a phenomenal recovery in corporate profits and productivity on a very subpar economic recovery,” said Nick Sargen, chief investment officer at Fort Washington Investment Advisors in Cincinnati, which oversees more than $36 billion. “If you agree that’s sustainable, then you’re willing to pay more for those companies’ future earnings than the guy who thinks this is just temporary. There’s more legs to the rally.”

Earnings Multiple

When return on equity rose close to its level now in the first quarters of 2003 and 2009, the earnings multiple for the S&P 500 increased 11 percent and 60 percent, respectively, in the next six months, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The indicator shows how much profit investment in workers, plants, technology and raw materials yields, making it a benchmark measure for corporate strategies.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin, tied with UBS AG’s Thomas Doerflinger as the most-accurate U.S. strategist in predicting where the S&P 500 would end last year, recommends buying shares of companies whose return on equity is climbing fastest. Those include Peoria, Illinois-based Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, and Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB), the producer of multiple sclerosis medicines in Weston, Massachusetts.

The S&P 500 reached the highest level since June 2008 last week, gaining 2 percent to 1,363.61 and bringing the rally that began in March 2009 to 102 percent. The gauge fell 0.2 percent to 1,361.22 as of 4 p.m. in New York today.

Company Profits

Profits at companies from 3M Co. (MMM) to United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) topped analysts’ estimates. Earnings have beaten forecasts at 77 percent of 299 index companies that have reported results since April 11, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

While the S&P 500 must rise 15 percent to reach its all- time high of 1,565.15 from 2007, trailing 12-month profit of $88.15 a share is 2 percent away from the record of $89.95 set in September 2007, Bloomberg data show. The index trades for 15.5 times income from the past 12 months and 12.2 times analysts’ estimate for next year. The average using reported earnings is 16.4 since 1954 and 20.5 in the past two decades.

Return on equity for the S&P 500 has climbed since falling to 16 percent in the third quarter of 2009, the lowest in Bloomberg data going back to 1998. The measure has averaged 22 percent in the past 13 years, the data show.

‘Strong Corporate Performance’

“The stock market is doing very well, but we haven’t yet seen the multiple expansion we should have with this kind of strong corporate performance and the improved returns on equity,” said Philip Orlando, the New York-based chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors Inc., which manages $358.2 billion. “It’s happening, albeit at a very slow pace.”

Stocks rose after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on April 27 he will finish $600 billion of bond purchases on schedule in June as the economy recovers at a “moderate pace.” The central bank has signaled it will maintain record stimulus until job growth accelerates before it starts to raise borrowing costs and trim its $2.69 trillion balance sheet.
While gross domestic product expanded 1.8 percent in the first quarter, it will rise 3.2 percent this quarter, and accelerate through the end of the year, according to the median of economists’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

The U.S. unemployment rate is double the five-year low of 4.4 percent from October 2006 after falling 1 percentage point since November to 8.8 percent. New applications for jobless benefits rose in the week ended April 22 to the highest level in three months, the Labor Department said last week.

Labor Costs

Companies are getting more from investments in part because labor costs are falling. U.S. productivity, or employee output per hour, rose 3.9 percent last year, the most since 2002, according to Labor Department statistics released in March. Worker costs fell 1.5 percent following a 1.6 percent decrease in 2009, the first back-to-back drop since 1962 and 1963.

Caterpillar has climbed 23 percent this year for the biggest advance in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Return on equity is forecast to reach 36 percent this year, the highest annual level since 2008, compared with 28 percent last year and 12 percent in 2009.

Caterpillar’s incremental margin, or the profit made on new sales, rose to 26 percent last year, the highest since at least 2003, as the company benefited from demand from mining and construction companies in China, India and Brazil, according to Jefferies Group Inc.’s Stephen Volkmann.

Caterpillar Earnings

The company posted per-share profit last week that topped analysts’ estimates by 41 percent and raised its full-year earnings forecast as sales surged in developing countries. Revenue increased 57 percent in the first quarter to $12.9 billion, according to a April 29 statement.

Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s earnings almost doubled last quarter to $6.40 a share, beating the $5.39 average estimate of analysts, as rising demand for Mac computers and the iPhone outweighed lower- than-predicted sales of the iPad tablet at the Cupertino, California-based company. Apple’s return on equity reached 39 percent as of March 26, the highest quarterly total since at least 1990, the data show.

IBM, the world’s largest computer-services provider, boosted its full-year profit forecast as companies buy more software and equipment such as mainframe computers and server systems. Operating earnings at the company will be at least $13.15 a share this year, higher than a previous projection of at least $13, and above the $13.08 average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Weaker Earnings Momentum

Even higher returns on equity won’t be enough to keep up the pace of stock increases as profit gains slow in the bull market’s third year, said Daniel Genter, who oversees about $3.7 billion as president of RNC Genter Capital Management. Weaker earnings momentum means investors won’t be willing to pay higher valuations for shares, he said.

S&P 500 profit growth has slowed. Companies that released results between April 11 and April 29 reported a 23 percent increase in income, compared with 39 percent in the previous earnings season, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“A big multiple expansion is unlikely,” Genter said in an interview from Los Angeles. “We’re not going to have accelerating earnings. We’re going to have slower growth as costs go up and monetary policy can’t go lower than it is now.”

Rising commodity costs may reduce profitability. Oak Brook, Illinois-based McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) said April 21 that food expenses in the U.S. will increase as much as 4.5 percent, faster than its February projection of up to 2.5 percent. Shares of the world’s biggest restaurant chain have climbed 2 percent this year, trailing the S&P 500’s 8.4 percent gain.

S&P 500 Revenue

Sales for S&P 500 companies is projected to climb 9.7 percent this year to $1,040.83 a share, the fastest pace since 2004, Bloomberg data show. A basket compiled by Goldman Sachs of 50 companies with increasing return on equity has risen 11 percent this year, beating the S&P 500’s gain.

Increased demand may boost hiring. Santa Clara, California- based Intel Corp. (INTC), the biggest chipmaker, announced Feb. 18 it plans to build a $5 billion microprocessor plant in Arizona and hire 4,000 people in the U.S. this year. General Electric Co. (GE) in Fairfield, Connecticut, whose chief executive officer, Jeffrey Immelt, leads President Barack Obama’s Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, announced plans over the last two years to create at least 6,300 jobs in the U.S., according to company statements.

Productivity Rebound

“It’s typical that you get a huge rebound in productivity in the first 18 to 24 months of a business cycle,” said Doug Ramsey, the Minneapolis-based director of research at Leuthold Group, which oversees $4 billion. “We’re entering into a stage where business has picked up enough that you’ve got to take on some new hires that have been put off for the last several months, start inventory rebuilding and capital spending projects, and that will cut into margins.”

The S&P 500 is cheaper now than at the start of the third year for the three previous bull markets in the past two decades. The index’s multiple of 15.5 times reported earnings compares with 17.8 in October 2004, 28.2 in August 2000 and 23.7 in October 1992, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Birinyi Associates, a Westport, Connecticut-based research firm.

“The market is still cheap,” David Kelly, who helps oversee about $445 billion as chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Even in a mild expansion, one where most Americans feel really unsatisfied, the thing that matters most to shareholders, which is profits, is going up very well.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at [email protected]; Lynn Thomasson in Hong Kong at [email protected]; Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at [email protected]

 

[dagoweb]

La FED e il Quantitative Easing

 

[Rottweiler]

Dove sta andando l'economia mondiale?

Rispondere a questa domanda sembra proprio difficile non solo a noi, ma anche ai supermen della finanza mondiale.
Le odierne dichiarazioni di Bernanke (qui sotto riferite da Bloomberg) non aiutano a capire dove si stia andando, ma confermano le "frustrazioni" del presidente della Fed.


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank should maintain record monetary stimulus to boost an “uneven” and “frustratingly slow” economic recovery.

“The economy is still producing at levels well below its potential; consequently, accommodative monetary policies are still needed,” Bernanke, 57, said today in the text of a speech to a conference in Atlanta. “Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established.”

Recent data showing weakness in the economy, including a rise in the unemployment rate to 9.1 percent in May, has increased the odds the Fed will hold the benchmark interest rate near zero into next year. At the same time, Bernanke and his fellow policy makers plan this month to complete a $600 billion bond purchase program, and they’re discussing the tools they’d use to withdraw stimulus, according to minutes of their meeting in April.

Bernanke said that while the recent increase in inflation is a “concern,” he doesn’t see “much evidence that inflation is becoming broad-based or ingrained in our economy.” Still, “the longer-run health of the economy requires that the Federal Reserve be vigilant in preserving its hard-won credibility for maintaining price stability.”

If commodity prices stabilize, “the upward impetus to overall price inflation will wane and the recent increase in inflation will prove transitory,” Bernanke said. Inflation is being restrained by “the stability of longer-term inflation expectations” and “weak demand for labor,” he said.

Job Openings
Job openings in the U.S. declined in April for the first time in three months and payrolls grew in May at the slowest pace in eight months, according to Labor Department figures released since June 3. The 54,000 rise in jobs followed a 232,000 gain in April and was below the 165,000 median increase forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

“Recent indicators suggest some loss of momentum,” Bernanke said. “I expect hiring to pick up from last month’s pace as growth strengthens in the second half of the year, but, again, the recent data highlight the need to continue monitoring the jobs situation carefully.”

Manufacturing grew at its slowest pace in more than a year in May, according to Institute for Supply Management data released last week. Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, rose less than forecast in April as households felt the pinch of grocery and energy costs, a Commerce Department report showed.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has declined 5.1 percent since hitting a high for the year on April 29.

Oil Prices
Oil prices have climbed 160 percent since February 2009, while non-fuel commodity prices gained about 80 percent, Bernanke said in his remarks. The increase in commodity prices reflects “strong gains in global demand that have not been met with commensurate increases in supply,” he said.

The chairman rejected criticism that the Fed’s actions have pushed down the foreign exchange value of the dollar, and thereby boosted the price of commodities, saying “many factors other than monetary policy affect the value of the dollar.”

Commodities as tracked by the 24-member Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index have rallied about 9 percent this year, led by gasoil and Brent crude.

Bernanke said that waning fiscal stimulus will also exert drag on growth. He warned against sharp cutbacks at a time when the recovery is still fragile, while urging lawmakers to develop a long-term plan for deficit reduction.

Long-Term Plan
“A sharp fiscal consolidation focused on the very near term could be self-defeating if it were to undercut the still-fragile recovery,” Bernanke said. “Consequently, the appropriate response is to move quickly to enact a credible, long-term plan for fiscal consolidation.”

Policy makers have few options left to respond to accumulating signs of a slowdown after their second round of asset purchases sparked the harshest backlash against the central bank in three decades.

“We’ve gotten inconsistency, hesitancy and unevenness” in U.S. economic growth, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said today in a speech in Charlotte, North Carolina. “I’m troubled by what you might describe as a lack of conviction in this economy.”

Two regional Fed bank presidents critical of the so-called quantitative easing program -- Richard Fisher of Dallas and Charles Plosser of Philadelphia -- reiterated their opposition to additional stimulus in comments yesterday.

The central bank has “done enough if not too much” to spur growth, Fisher said in New York, while Plosser said in Helsinki that an exit from stimulus should start “long before” a recovery in the U.S. job market is assured.

“Somewhat tighter monetary policy is possible by the end of the year,” Plosser said. Fisher and Plosser are both voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

 

[pier_pat]

Please respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share links; copy content for personal use; & redistribute limited extracts. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights or use this link to reference the article - FT.com / Brussels / Economy - ECB keeps interest rates on hold

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ECB keeps interest rates on hold

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt
Published: June 9 2011 12:45 | Last updated: June 9 2011 12:45

The European Central Bank has kept its main interest rate unchanged but left the door open for a further rise in July.
The decision to leave the main policy rate at 1.25 per cent after a meeting of its governing council in Frankfurt on Thursday was expected. Jean-Claude Trichet, president, has made clear that increases in ECB rates will be signalled in advance – and no hints were dropped about a rise this month.


​

But Mr Trichet is expected on Thursday afternoon to warn that the ECB is exercising “strong vigilance” – code for an interest-rate increase one month away.
The ECB started tightening monetary policy in April, ahead of the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England. While Greece continues to reel from its debt crisis, much of the eurozone is seeing steady growth, powered by Germany, the region’s largest economy. The ECB argues it has to set monetary policy for the eurozone as a whole.
Eurozone inflation, meanwhile, remains above the ECB’s target of an annual rate “below but close” to 2 per cent over the medium term. In May, the rate slowed a little, dropping to 2.7 per cent from 2.8 per cent in April, but the dip is expected to be only temporary. The ECB is expected to revise up its forecast for average inflation this year. It is anxious that a surge in inflation caused by higher oil and commodity prices should not become entrenched via “second round effects” on wages and other costs.
The continuing crisis will also have weighed on the ECB, however, and financial markets have scaled back expectations about further ECB interest rate increases this year.
Greece’s continuing difficulties, along with those of Portugal and Ireland, could also persuade the ECB to leave its policy of providing unlimited liquidity to eurozone banks unchanged. Mr Trichet is expected to announce on Thursday afternoon whether the policy will continue beyond July. If the ECB does decide to take a step towards unwinding the policy, one option would be to reintroduce auctions for three-month liquidity. Other steps could be to set limits on bidding by individual banks.