Dupondius
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"La crisi durerà ancora due-tre anni" - Il Sole 24 Ore
ditelo, se credete che Rogoff porti sfiga come Roubini
ditelo, se credete che Rogoff porti sfiga come Roubini
Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Goodbye, Great Bond Bull Market?
Dupondius
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Goldman Cuts Q3 Growth Forecast In Half, Sees Q3, Q4 GDP At 1.0%, 1.5%, Presents Jackson Hole Event Walk Thru | ZeroHedge
[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4VSQg7w9Wo&feature=related[/ame]
[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4VSQg7w9Wo&feature=related[/ame]
Imark
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L'articolo originale di Bill Gross...
Investment Outlook
Bill Gross
November 2010
Run Turkey, Run
They say a country gets the politicians it deserves or perhaps it deserves the politicians it gets. Whatever the order, America is next in line, and as we go to the polls in a few short days it’s incumbent upon a sleepy and befuddled electorate to at least ask ourselves, “What’s going on here?” Democrat or Republican, Elephant or Donkey, nothing much ever seems to change. Each party has shown it can add hundreds of billions of dollars to the national debt with little to show for it or move our military from one country to the next chasing phantoms instead of focusing on more serious problems back home. This isn’t a choice between chocolate and vanilla folks, it’s all rocky road: a few marshmallows to get you excited before the election, but with a lot of nuts to ruin the aftermath.
Each party’s campaign tactics remind me of airport terminals pre-9/11 when solicitors only yards apart would compete for the attention and dollars of travellers. “Save the Whales,” one would demand, while the other would pose as its evil twin – “Eat Whale Blubber,” the makeshift sign would read. It didn’t matter which slogan grabbed you, the end of the day’s results always produced a pot of money for them and the whales were neither saved nor eaten. American politics resemble an airline terminal with a huckster’s bowl waiting to be filled every two years.
And the paramount problem is not that we contribute so willingly or even so cluelessly, but that there are only two bowls to choose from. Thomas Friedman, the respected author of The World Is Flat, and a weekly New York Times Op-Ed author, recently suggested “ripping open this two-party duopoly and having it challenged by a serious third party” unencumbered by special interest megabucks. “We basically have two bankrupt parties, bankrupting the country,” was the explicit sentiment of his article, and I couldn’t agree more – whales or no whales. Was it relevant in 2004 that John Kerry was or was not an admirable “swift boat” commander? Will the absence of a mosque within several hundred yards of Ground Zero solve our deficit crisis? Is Christine O’Donnell really a witch? Did Meg Whitman employ an illegal maid? Who cares! We are being conned, folks; Democrats and Republicans alike. What have you really heard from either party that addresses America’s future instead of its prurient overnight fascination with scandal? Shame on them and of course, shame on us. We’re getting what we deserve. Vote NO in November – no to both parties. Vote NO to a two-party system that trades promises for dollars and hope for power, and leaves the American people high and dry.
There’s another important day next week and it rather coincidentally occurs on Wednesday – the day after Election Day – when either the Donkeys or the Elephants will be celebrating a return to power and the continuation of partisan bickering no matter who is in charge. Wednesday is the day when the Fed will announce a renewed commitment to Quantitative Easing – a polite form disguise for “writing cheques.” The market will be interested in the amount (perhaps as much as an initial $500 billion) as well as the targeted objective (perhaps a muddied version of “2% inflation or bust!”). The announcement, however, has been well telegraphed and the market’s reaction is likely to be subdued. More important will be the answer to the long-term question of “will it work?” and perhaps its associated twin “will it create a bond market bubble?”
Whatever the conclusion, not only investors, but the American people should recognise that Wednesday, even more than Tuesday, represents a critical inflection point in determining our future prosperity. Of course we’ve tried it before, most recently in the aftermath of the Lehman crisis, during which the Fed wrote $1.5 trillion or so in “cheques” to purchase Agency mortgages and a smattering of Treasuries. It might seem a tad dramatic then, to label QEII as “critical,” sort of like those airport hucksters, I suppose, that sold whale blubber for a living. But two years ago, there was the implicit assumption that the US and its associated G-7 economies needed just an espresso or perhaps an Adderall or two to get back to normal. Normal just hasn’t happened yet, and economic historians such as Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart have since alerted us that countries in the throes of delevering can take many, not several, years to return to a steady state.
The Fed’s second round of QE, therefore, more closely resembles an attempted hypodermic straight to the economy’s heart than its mood elevator counterpart of 2009. If QEII cannot reflate capital markets, if it can’t produce 2% inflation and an assumed reduction of unemployment rates back towards historical levels, then it will be a long, painful slog back to prosperity. Perhaps, as a vocal contingent suggests, our paper-based foundation of wealth deserves to be buried, making a fresh start from admittedly lower levels. The Fed, on Wednesday, however, will decide that it is better to keep the patient on life support with an adrenaline injection and a following morphine drip than to risk its demise and ultimate rebirth in another form.
We at PIMCO join with Ben Bernanke in this diagnosis, but we will tell you, as perhaps he cannot, that the outcome is by no means certain. We are, as even some Fed Governors now publically admit, in a “liquidity trap,” where interest rates or trillions in QEII asset purchases may not stimulate borrowing or lending because consumer demand is just not there. Escaping from a liquidity trap may be impossible, much like light trapped in a black hole. Just ask Japan. Ben Bernanke, however, will try – it is, to be honest, all he can do. He can’t raise or lower taxes, he can’t direct a fiscal thrust of infrastructure spending, he can’t change our educational system, he can’t force the Chinese to revalue their currency – it is all he can do, and as he proceeds, the dual questions of “will it work” and “will it create a bond market bubble” will be answered. We at PIMCO are not sure.
Still, while next Wednesday’s announcement will carry our qualified endorsement, I must admit it may be similar to a Turkey looking forward to a Thanksgiving Day celebration. Bondholders, while immediate beneficiaries, will likely eventually be delivered on a platter to more fortunate celebrants, be they financial asset classes more adaptable to inflation such as stocks or commodities, or perhaps the average American on Main Street who might benefit from a hoped-for rise in job growth or simply a boost in nominal wages, however deceptive the illusion. Cheque writing in the trillions is not a bondholder’s friend; it is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme. Public debt, actually, has always had a Ponzi-like characteristic. Granted, the US has, at times, paid down its national debt, but there was always the assumption that as long as creditors could be found to roll over existing loans – and buy new ones – the game could keep going forever. Sovereign countries have always implicitly acknowledged that the existing debt would never be paid off because they would “grow” their way out of the apparent predicament, allowing future’s prosperity to continually pay for today’s finance.
Now, however, with growth in doubt, it seems that the Fed has taken Charles Ponzi one step further. Instead of simply paying for maturing debt with receipts from financial sector creditors – banks, insurance companies, surplus reserve nations and investment managers, to name the most significant – the Fed has joined the party itself. Rather than orchestrating the game from on high, it has jumped into the pond with the other swimmers. One and one-half trillion in cheques were written in 2009, and trillions more lie ahead. The Fed, in effect, is telling the markets not to worry about our fiscal deficits, it will be the buyer of first and perhaps last resort. There is no need – as with Charles Ponzi – to find an increasing amount of future gullibles, they will just write the cheque themselves. I ask you: Has there ever been a Ponzi scheme so brazen? There has not. This one is so unique that it requires a new name. I call it a Sammy scheme, in honour of Uncle Sam and the politicians (as well as its citizens) who have brought us to this critical moment in time. It is not a Bernanke scheme, because this is his only alternative and he shares no responsibility for its origin. It is a Sammy scheme – you and I, and the politicians that we elect every two years – deserve all the blame.
Still, as I’ve indicated, a Sammy scheme is temporarily, but not ultimately, a bondholder’s friend. It raises bond prices to create the illusion of high annual returns, but ultimately it reaches a dead-end where those prices can no longer go up. Having arrived at its destination, the market then offers near 0% returns and a picking of the creditor’s pocket via inflation and negative real interest rates. A similar fate, by the way, awaits stockholders, although their ability to adjust somewhat to rising inflation prevents such a startling conclusion. Last month I outlined the case for low asset returns in almost all categories, in part due to the end of the 30-year bull market in interest rates, a trend accentuated by QEII in which 2- and 3-year Treasury yields approach the 0% bound. Anyone for 1.10% 5-year Treasuries? Well, the Fed will buy them, but then what, and how will PIMCO tell the 500 billion investor dollars in the Total Return strategy and our equally valued 750 billion dollars of other assets that the Thanksgiving Day axe has finally arrived?
We will tell them this. Certain Turkeys receive a Thanksgiving pardon or they just run faster than others! We intend PIMCO to be one of the chosen gobblers. We haven’t been around for 35+ years and not figured out a way to avoid the November axe. We are a survivor and our clients are not going to be Turkeys on a platter. You may not be strutting around the barnyard as briskly as you used to – those near 10% annualised yields in stocks and bonds are a thing of the past – but you’re gonna be around next year, and then the next, and the next. Interest rates may be rock bottom, but there are other ways – what we call “safe spread” ways –to beat the axe without taking a lot of risk: developing/emerging market debt with higher yields and non-dollar denominations is one way; high quality global corporate bonds are another. Even US Agency mortgages yielding 200 basis points more than those 1% Treasuries, qualify as “safe spreads.” While our “safe spread” terminology offers no guarantees, it is designed to let you sleep at night with less interest rate volatility. The Fed wants to buy, so come on, Ben Bernanke, show us your best and perhaps last moves on Wednesday next. You are doing what you have to do, and it may or may not work. But either way it will likely signify the end of a great 30-year bull market in bonds and the necessity for bond managers and, yes, equity managers to adjust to a new environment.
If a country gets the politicians it deserves, then the same can be said of an investor – you’re gonna get what you deserve. Vote No to Republican and Democratic turkeys on Tuesday and Yes to PIMCO on Wednesday. We hope to be your global investment authority for a new era of “SAFE spread” with lower interest rate duration and price risk, and still reasonably high potential returns. For us, and hopefully you, Turkey Day may have to be postponed indefinitely.
William H. Gross
Managing Director
Otto mesi dopo, e con il rendimento dei TBond decennali caduto nel mentre dal 3,5% al 2,2% ...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dbe0ab88-d24b-11e0-9137-00144feab49a.html#axzz1WW0ffhkh
August 29, 2011 8:46 pm
Pimco’s Gross rues US debt ‘mistake’
By Dan McCrum in New York
Bill Gross, manager of the world’s largest bond fund for Pimco, has admitted that it was a mistake to bet so heavily against the price of US government debt.
Mr Gross emptied his $244bn Total Return Fund of US government-related securities earlier this year in a high-profile call that has backfired as the bond market has rallied. As of Monday, Pimco’s flagship fund ranked 501th out of 589 bond funds in its category.
“Do I wish I had more Treasuries? Yeah, that’s pretty obvious,” Mr Gross told the Financial Times last week, adding: “I get that it was my/our mistake in thinking that the US economy can chug along at 2 per cent real growth rates. It doesn’t look like it can.” Pimco’s Gross rues US debt ‘mistake’
By Dan McCrum in New York
Bill Gross, manager of the world’s largest bond fund for Pimco, has admitted that it was a mistake to bet so heavily against the price of US government debt.
Mr Gross emptied his $244bn Total Return Fund of US government-related securities earlier this year in a high-profile call that has backfired as the bond market has rallied. As of Monday, Pimco’s flagship fund ranked 501th out of 589 bond funds in its category.
When the yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.5 per cent in January, Mr Gross warned that the risk of rising inflation made government debt a poor investment.
Bond prices move in the opposite direction to bond yields, which he forecast would rise as Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, brought the second programme of bond buying, known as quantitative easing, to an end in June.
Mr Gross, one of the most influential voices in the bond market, reiterated his warning to avoid Treasuries in June, and in the July dispatch of his widely read Investment Outlook, warned that promises to America’s ageing population made them “debt men walking”.
However, this month, as turmoil in equity markets caused investors to rush to the safety of government bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 2 per cent, a 61-year low.
The move has forced Mr Gross to reassess his bearish position on US debt in recent weeks. “We’ve moderated based on the outlook for the US economy, based on what Bernanke has done at the Fed in the last month. Freezing rates for two years, that was a pretty significant statement in terms of the vulnerability of Treasuries to go down in price and up in yield,” he said.
“It’s not necessarily a flip flop, as we don’t own tons of Treasuries, but its a recognition that the US and developed economies are near the recessionary dividing point,” he said.
Mr Gross still argues that on a long-term basis, governments are likely to use financial repression, where the rate of inflation is higher than bond yields, to erode the value of sovereign debt over time.
But he also suggested that the “new normal” – Pimco’s view of the global economic outlook in which growth rates for developed countries are slower than in the past – may have to be revised downwards to a “new normal minus”.
Mr Gross, as co-chief investment officer, has built Pimco into one of the world’s largest asset management firms through a astute money management, with high-profile investment views presented in colourful language. However, he argued that many of his peers were also short on Treasuries when compared with their benchmark, the Barclays Capital Aggregate bond index.
“I don’t know that a 15 per cent underweight relative to the competition was a big deal, but it sort of became so in the headlines,” he said.
Mr Gross started to buy government debt, as well as related securities and derivatives, in recent months. However, he faces a challenge to catch up to the benchmark, which has returned 4.55 per cent for the year so far, versus the Total Return Fund’s 3.29 per cent, according to Lipper, a research group.
“When you’re underperforming the index, you go home at night and cry in your beer,” he said, adding: “It’s not fun, but who said this business should be fun. We’re too well paid to hang our heads and say boo hoo.”
negusneg
New Member
Bravo Antonio
così quando riprenderemo la discussione dovremo parlare anche di questo:
Se qualcuno me lo avesse detto un anno fa avrei pensato che era ubriaco.
Purtroppo ora non ho tempo di approfondire, spero che ne parleremo tutti insieme a San Bonifacio sabato prossimo, però voglio mettermi avanti col lavoro. Ricevo da un amico
, e volentieri riposto, un pensierino domenicale di Joachim Fels (capo della ricerca di MS) che condivido dalla prima all'ultima riga.Markets seem to share the ‘gloom fatigue’ sentiment I expressed last Sunday, at least for now, and the past week’s data and events indeed confirmed that ‘not all is bad’.
Central banks’ actions in recent weeks helped lift asset prices, the US economy has not ‘fallen off a cliff’ as demonstrated by Friday’s above-consensus retail sales report,
Central banks’ actions in recent weeks helped lift asset prices, the US economy has not ‘fallen off a cliff’ as demonstrated by Friday’s above-consensus retail sales report,
Slovakia’s second vote finally gave the green light for the enhanced EFSF, and the bank
recap plan in Europe gained momentum. So far, so good – but what next?
If you’re looking for more good news ahead, you may take heart from the second 50 basis points rate cut in Brazil this coming Wednesday that our team is forecasting, which would support our view that the CCC (confidence, competency and credibility) crisis in the developed world has shocked many EM policy makers into action – note also that Indonesia, the second ‘I’ in the BRIICs cut rates this past week. And, our US team looks for core CPI to print 2.1%Y on Wednesday, which would confirm the uptrend in underlying inflation. In a world where many people (not me!) see deflation around the corner, that’s not bad either.
If you’re looking for more good news ahead, you may take heart from the second 50 basis points rate cut in Brazil this coming Wednesday that our team is forecasting, which would support our view that the CCC (confidence, competency and credibility) crisis in the developed world has shocked many EM policy makers into action – note also that Indonesia, the second ‘I’ in the BRIICs cut rates this past week. And, our US team looks for core CPI to print 2.1%Y on Wednesday, which would confirm the uptrend in underlying inflation. In a world where many people (not me!) see deflation around the corner, that’s not bad either.
The real focus will again be Europe this week, however, and this is where it gets more tricky.
In my view, the EU and Eurogroup Heads of State or Government meeting next Sunday, October 23, has the potential to turn into a (positive) historic moment, but it
could also easily turn into a negative catalyst. Right now, everybody is focused on three intertwined topics that will likely feature at the gathering.
could also easily turn into a negative catalyst. Right now, everybody is focused on three intertwined topics that will likely feature at the gathering.
First, a decision to amend the second Greek bailout package agreed in July including some details of Greece’s PSI, in order to achieve a bigger, but still ‘voluntary’, NPV loss for private investors – perhaps between 30% and 50% – rather than the 21% originally announced.
Second, an agreement to recapitalize banks to a significantly higher core tier 1 capital ratio, with funding coming from (i) the market; (ii) the fiscally strong sovereigns, if a market solution cannot be found for the banks; and (iii) the EFSF, if the weak sovereigns find market access too difficult or expensive.
Third, a decision to leverage the enhanced EFSF by guaranteeing a certain first loss on sovereign bonds to incentivize private investor participation in new issues. The devil in all of these is in the detail. Guaranteeing first losses may well turn out less appealing to investors than many hope, a larger PSI could spark another wave of contagion, and banks would probably choose to shed assets and delever rather than raise capital in the market if they are given a longish grace period before having to accept recapitalization through their sovereign and the EFSF.
However, what’s really required to see light at the end of the tunnel for Europe is a strong signal from our Heads of State of Government on October 23 that they plan to take a big step towards European fiscal integration.
This could become the historic moment when Europe’s leaders agree to rectify one of the euro area’s institutional flaws – a monetary union without a fiscal union. No doubt, the road to fiscal integration would be long and winding – it would require European Treaty changes and national constitutional amendments. But it’s important to give markets a sense of what the final goal is, and the sooner the better.
So here’s my take: we will get a declaration of intent on fiscal integration next Sunday, and governments might decide to install a high-ranking commission to draw up a detailed proposal in coming months. And I think there would be no better person to head this commission on the fiscal future of Europe than Jean Claude Trichet, a truly great European. But maybe this is just wishful thinking on a lazy Sunday morning…
Oh, we plan to hold a client conference call on the Summit results next Sunday night. Watch out for an invitation in the next few days. Have a good week.
Ultima modifica:
negusneg
New Member
Say What? In 30-Year Race, Bonds Beat Stocks
By Cordell Eddings - Oct 31, 2011
The biggest bond gains in almost a decade have pushed returns on Treasuries above stocks over the past 30 years, the first time that’s happened since before the Civil War.
Fixed-income investments advanced 6.25 percent this year, almost triple the 2.18 percent rise in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index through last week, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Debt markets are on track to return 7.63 percent this year, the most since 2002, the data show. Long-term government bonds have gained 11.5 percent a year on average over the past three decades, beating the 10.8 percent increase in the S&P 500, said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research in Chicago.
The combination of a core U.S. inflation rate that has averaged 1.5 percent this year, the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its target interest rate for overnight loans between banks near zero through 2013, slower economic growth and the highest savings rate since the global credit crisis have made bonds the best assets to own this year. Not only have bonds knocked stocks from their perch as the dominant long-term investment, their returns proved everyone from Bill Gross toMeredith Whitney and Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrong.
“The generation-long outperformance of bonds over stocks has been the biggest investment theme that everyone has just gotten plain wrong,” Bianco said in an Oct. 26 telephone interview. “It’s such an ingrained idea in everyone’s head that such low yields should be shunned in favor of stocks, that no one wants to disrupt the idea, never mind the fact that it has been off.”
Market Returns
Stocks had risen more than bonds over every 30-year period from 1861, according to Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School in Philadelphia, until the period ending in Sept 30.
U.S. government debt is up 7.23 percent this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s U.S Master Treasury index. Municipal securities have returned 8.17 percent, corporate notes have gained 6.24 percent and mortgage bonds have risen 5.11 percent. The S&P GSCI index of 24 commodities has returned 0.25 percent.
Falling Yields
While 10-year Treasury yields rose 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage point, last week to 2.32 percent, they are down from this year’s high of 3.77 percent on Feb. 9. The price of the benchmark 2.125 percent note due August 2021 fell 27/32, or $8.44 per $1,000 face value, in the five days ended Oct. 28 to 98 10/32, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data.
The yield dropped 11 basis points today to 2.21 percent at 10:21 a.m. in New York.
The shift to debt wasn’t anticipated by Gross, who as co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co. runs the world’s biggest bond fund. His $242 billion Total Return Fund, which unloaded Treasuries in February before the rally, has gained 2.55 percent this year, putting it in the bottom 18th percentile of similar funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Whitney, a banking analyst who correctly turned bearish on Citigroup Inc. in 2007, predicted in December “hundreds of billions of dollars” of municipal defaults that haven’t happened. Taleb, author of “The Black Swan” and a principal at Universa Investments LP, said at a conference in Moscow on Feb. 3 that the “first thing” investors should avoid is Treasuries.
What Went Wrong
The reluctance to purchase debt continues. Leon Cooperman, chairman of $3.5 billion hedge fund Omega Advisors Inc., said in a presentation at the Value Investing Congress in New York on Oct. 18 that he “wouldn’t be caught dead owning a U.S. government bond.”
What the bears failed to anticipate was that Americans would continue to pare debt and boost savings. Much of that money found its way into the fixed-income markets as banks and investors sought high-quality debt as unemployment held at or above 9 percent every month except for two since May 2009, Europe’s fiscal crisis threatened to push the global economy back into recession and stock markets fell.
“It’s hard to envision a scenario where we see significantly better than two percent growth, with increased fiscal austerity and headwinds from the leverage bubble and persistent unemployment,” said Rick Rieder, who oversees $620 billion as chief investment officer of fundamental fixed income at New York-based Blackrock Inc. The firm is the world’s largest money manager, investing $3.45 trillion.
Higher Savings
The U.S. savings rate has tripled to 3.6 percent since 2005 and has averaged 5.1 percent since the depth of the financial crisis in December 2008, compared with 3.1 percent for the previous 10 years, according to government data. Debt mutual funds have attracted $789.4 billion since 2008, compared with a $341 billion drop in equity funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the Washington-based Investment Company Institute.
Banks, still trying to rebuild their balance sheets after taking more than $2 trillion in writedowns and losses since the start of 2007, have boosted holdings of Treasuries and government-backed mortgage securities to $1.68 trillion from $1.62 trillion in December, according to the Fed. Foreign investors increased their stake in Treasuries to $4.57 trillion in August from $4.44 trillion at the end of 2010, according to the latest Treasury Department data.
The bond market posted its first 30-year gain over the stock market in more than a century during the period ended Sept. 30. The last time was in 1861, leading into the Civil War, when the U.S was moving from farm to factory, according to Siegel, author of the 1994 book “Stocks for the Long Run,” in a telephone interview Oct. 25.
‘Millennium Event’
“The rally in bonds is a once in a millennium event, but it’s absolutely mathematically impossible for bonds to get any kind of returns like this going forward whereas stock returns can repeat themselves, and are likely to outperform,” he said.“If you missed the rally in bonds, well, then that’s it.”
Gross eliminated Treasuries from the Total Return Fund in February and owned derivative bets against the debt in March. He moved 16 percent of its assets into U.S. government securities as of September, saying earlier this month in a note to clients that he misjudged the extent of the economic slowdown and called his performance this year “a stinker.”
Local government bonds are set for the biggest gains since 2009 as defaults fell last quarter. Cities and states are reducing expenses instead of forgoing payments on debt even as they confront fiscal strains in the wake of falling revenue.
One Miss
Whitney said on the CBS’s “60 Minutes” in December that there would be “hundreds of billions of dollars” of municipal defaults this year. Brighton, Alabama, a city of 2,945 near Birmingham, was the only U.S. municipality to miss a general-obligation debt payment in 2011. Defaults are about 25 percent of 2010’s $4.3 billion tally, according to Bank of America Corp.
Money has poured into Treasuries even as U.S. budget deficits totaled $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009 ended Sept. 30, $1.29 trillion in 2010 and $1.3 trillion in 2011.
Rising deficits and debt led Taleb, the distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University, to tell investors in February that the “first thing” they should do is avoid Treasuries, and the second shun the dollar. At the same conference a year earlier he said “every single human being”should bet against U.S. government debt.
Tame Inflation
Since February Treasuries have rallied 7.99 percent and the currency has gained 3.2 percent, beating 14 of its 16 most actively traded peers, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes and data compiled by Bloomberg.
Concerns about inflation have also abated. Consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.05 percent in September, the smallest gain since October 2010, the Labor Department said Oct. 19 in Washington. Yields on bonds that protect investors from rising consumer prices suggest the fixed-income market anticipates inflation will average to 2.15 percent over the next decade, down from expectations of 2.67 percent in April.
“The Fed is legally obligated to do everything in their power to keep unemployment low, and they have and will continue to do so,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. “As long as inflation isn’t a concern the Fed is going to keep firing until something happens,” Low said in a telephone interview Oct. 21.
Low was one of three economists in a Bloomberg survey of 72 forecasters in January to predict that 10-year Treasury yields would trade below 3 percent this quarter.
Fed Signals
Fed policy makers, who meet this week, have signaled that they are considering more measures to boost the economy, after holding the target rate for overnight loans between banks at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008 and expanding its balance sheet to a record $2.88 trillion.
Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said Oct. 21 that a third round of large-scale securities purchases might become warranted. Last month, policy makers said they would replace $400 billion of short-term debt with longer-term Treasuries in an effort to contain borrowing costs.
“The Fed’s hope is that by pushing down Treasury rates, all other rates will follow,” Jay Mueller, who manages about $3 billion of bonds at Wells Fargo Capital Management in Milwaukee, said in a telephone interview Oct. 26.
“As a portfolio manager who has been in the business 30 years, it’s hard to come to terms where interest rates are, but you have to come to terms with it,” Mark MacQueen, who oversees bond investments at Austin, Texas-based Sage Advisory Services Ltd., which manages $9.5 billion, said in an Oct. 26 telephone interview. “And when you look at what stocks have done this decade it becomes much easier.”
To contact the reporter on this story:Cordell Eddings in New York at [email protected]
By Cordell Eddings - Oct 31, 2011
The biggest bond gains in almost a decade have pushed returns on Treasuries above stocks over the past 30 years, the first time that’s happened since before the Civil War.
Fixed-income investments advanced 6.25 percent this year, almost triple the 2.18 percent rise in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index through last week, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Debt markets are on track to return 7.63 percent this year, the most since 2002, the data show. Long-term government bonds have gained 11.5 percent a year on average over the past three decades, beating the 10.8 percent increase in the S&P 500, said Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research in Chicago.
The combination of a core U.S. inflation rate that has averaged 1.5 percent this year, the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep its target interest rate for overnight loans between banks near zero through 2013, slower economic growth and the highest savings rate since the global credit crisis have made bonds the best assets to own this year. Not only have bonds knocked stocks from their perch as the dominant long-term investment, their returns proved everyone from Bill Gross toMeredith Whitney and Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrong.
“The generation-long outperformance of bonds over stocks has been the biggest investment theme that everyone has just gotten plain wrong,” Bianco said in an Oct. 26 telephone interview. “It’s such an ingrained idea in everyone’s head that such low yields should be shunned in favor of stocks, that no one wants to disrupt the idea, never mind the fact that it has been off.”
Market Returns
Stocks had risen more than bonds over every 30-year period from 1861, according to Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School in Philadelphia, until the period ending in Sept 30.
U.S. government debt is up 7.23 percent this year, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s U.S Master Treasury index. Municipal securities have returned 8.17 percent, corporate notes have gained 6.24 percent and mortgage bonds have risen 5.11 percent. The S&P GSCI index of 24 commodities has returned 0.25 percent.
Falling Yields
While 10-year Treasury yields rose 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage point, last week to 2.32 percent, they are down from this year’s high of 3.77 percent on Feb. 9. The price of the benchmark 2.125 percent note due August 2021 fell 27/32, or $8.44 per $1,000 face value, in the five days ended Oct. 28 to 98 10/32, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data.
The yield dropped 11 basis points today to 2.21 percent at 10:21 a.m. in New York.
The shift to debt wasn’t anticipated by Gross, who as co-chief investment officer of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co. runs the world’s biggest bond fund. His $242 billion Total Return Fund, which unloaded Treasuries in February before the rally, has gained 2.55 percent this year, putting it in the bottom 18th percentile of similar funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Whitney, a banking analyst who correctly turned bearish on Citigroup Inc. in 2007, predicted in December “hundreds of billions of dollars” of municipal defaults that haven’t happened. Taleb, author of “The Black Swan” and a principal at Universa Investments LP, said at a conference in Moscow on Feb. 3 that the “first thing” investors should avoid is Treasuries.
What Went Wrong
The reluctance to purchase debt continues. Leon Cooperman, chairman of $3.5 billion hedge fund Omega Advisors Inc., said in a presentation at the Value Investing Congress in New York on Oct. 18 that he “wouldn’t be caught dead owning a U.S. government bond.”
What the bears failed to anticipate was that Americans would continue to pare debt and boost savings. Much of that money found its way into the fixed-income markets as banks and investors sought high-quality debt as unemployment held at or above 9 percent every month except for two since May 2009, Europe’s fiscal crisis threatened to push the global economy back into recession and stock markets fell.
“It’s hard to envision a scenario where we see significantly better than two percent growth, with increased fiscal austerity and headwinds from the leverage bubble and persistent unemployment,” said Rick Rieder, who oversees $620 billion as chief investment officer of fundamental fixed income at New York-based Blackrock Inc. The firm is the world’s largest money manager, investing $3.45 trillion.
Higher Savings
The U.S. savings rate has tripled to 3.6 percent since 2005 and has averaged 5.1 percent since the depth of the financial crisis in December 2008, compared with 3.1 percent for the previous 10 years, according to government data. Debt mutual funds have attracted $789.4 billion since 2008, compared with a $341 billion drop in equity funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the Washington-based Investment Company Institute.
Banks, still trying to rebuild their balance sheets after taking more than $2 trillion in writedowns and losses since the start of 2007, have boosted holdings of Treasuries and government-backed mortgage securities to $1.68 trillion from $1.62 trillion in December, according to the Fed. Foreign investors increased their stake in Treasuries to $4.57 trillion in August from $4.44 trillion at the end of 2010, according to the latest Treasury Department data.
The bond market posted its first 30-year gain over the stock market in more than a century during the period ended Sept. 30. The last time was in 1861, leading into the Civil War, when the U.S was moving from farm to factory, according to Siegel, author of the 1994 book “Stocks for the Long Run,” in a telephone interview Oct. 25.
‘Millennium Event’
“The rally in bonds is a once in a millennium event, but it’s absolutely mathematically impossible for bonds to get any kind of returns like this going forward whereas stock returns can repeat themselves, and are likely to outperform,” he said.“If you missed the rally in bonds, well, then that’s it.”
Gross eliminated Treasuries from the Total Return Fund in February and owned derivative bets against the debt in March. He moved 16 percent of its assets into U.S. government securities as of September, saying earlier this month in a note to clients that he misjudged the extent of the economic slowdown and called his performance this year “a stinker.”
Local government bonds are set for the biggest gains since 2009 as defaults fell last quarter. Cities and states are reducing expenses instead of forgoing payments on debt even as they confront fiscal strains in the wake of falling revenue.
One Miss
Whitney said on the CBS’s “60 Minutes” in December that there would be “hundreds of billions of dollars” of municipal defaults this year. Brighton, Alabama, a city of 2,945 near Birmingham, was the only U.S. municipality to miss a general-obligation debt payment in 2011. Defaults are about 25 percent of 2010’s $4.3 billion tally, according to Bank of America Corp.
Money has poured into Treasuries even as U.S. budget deficits totaled $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009 ended Sept. 30, $1.29 trillion in 2010 and $1.3 trillion in 2011.
Rising deficits and debt led Taleb, the distinguished professor of risk engineering at New York University, to tell investors in February that the “first thing” they should do is avoid Treasuries, and the second shun the dollar. At the same conference a year earlier he said “every single human being”should bet against U.S. government debt.
Tame Inflation
Since February Treasuries have rallied 7.99 percent and the currency has gained 3.2 percent, beating 14 of its 16 most actively traded peers, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes and data compiled by Bloomberg.
Concerns about inflation have also abated. Consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.05 percent in September, the smallest gain since October 2010, the Labor Department said Oct. 19 in Washington. Yields on bonds that protect investors from rising consumer prices suggest the fixed-income market anticipates inflation will average to 2.15 percent over the next decade, down from expectations of 2.67 percent in April.
“The Fed is legally obligated to do everything in their power to keep unemployment low, and they have and will continue to do so,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. “As long as inflation isn’t a concern the Fed is going to keep firing until something happens,” Low said in a telephone interview Oct. 21.
Low was one of three economists in a Bloomberg survey of 72 forecasters in January to predict that 10-year Treasury yields would trade below 3 percent this quarter.
Fed Signals
Fed policy makers, who meet this week, have signaled that they are considering more measures to boost the economy, after holding the target rate for overnight loans between banks at zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008 and expanding its balance sheet to a record $2.88 trillion.
Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said Oct. 21 that a third round of large-scale securities purchases might become warranted. Last month, policy makers said they would replace $400 billion of short-term debt with longer-term Treasuries in an effort to contain borrowing costs.
“The Fed’s hope is that by pushing down Treasury rates, all other rates will follow,” Jay Mueller, who manages about $3 billion of bonds at Wells Fargo Capital Management in Milwaukee, said in a telephone interview Oct. 26.
“As a portfolio manager who has been in the business 30 years, it’s hard to come to terms where interest rates are, but you have to come to terms with it,” Mark MacQueen, who oversees bond investments at Austin, Texas-based Sage Advisory Services Ltd., which manages $9.5 billion, said in an Oct. 26 telephone interview. “And when you look at what stocks have done this decade it becomes much easier.”
To contact the reporter on this story:Cordell Eddings in New York at [email protected]
Ultima modifica:
tomcat
Forumer attivo
tratto dal sito milano finanaza
lunedì, 31 ottobre 2011 - 17:00
Non era mai successo da prima della guerra civile americana, 150 anni fa: le obbligazioni sono andate meglio del mercato azionario, negli ultimi trent'anni. Il ritorno sugli investimenti nel reddito fisso è stato infatti del 6,25% contro un aumento del 2,18% dell'indice S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC - notizie) , la misura più ampia del ritorno sulle azioni Usa.
Dietro alla corsa dei prezzi dei titoli del reddito fisso ci sono inflazione relativamente bassa negli Usa (1,5% quest'anno in media), l'aumento del risparmio degli americani, crescita economica bassa e la politica della Federal Reserve di tenere i tassi a pressoché zero. Le azioni sono salite più delle obbligazioni in tutti i periodi trentennali dal 1861 a oggi, secondo Jeremy Siegel, professore di finanza alla University of Pennsylvania.
Dati di Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER - notizie) dicono che quest'anno i titoli del Tesoro Usa hanno guadagnato il 7,23%, i titoli del debito municipale l'8,17, le obbligazioni societarie il 6,24 e i titoli legati al mercato dei mutui il 5,11%. Ritorni che hanno eclissato quelli delle
azioni, con l'S&P500 sostanzialmente invariato quest'anno dopo il rally di ottobre e le materie prime in rialzo solo dello 0,25% secondo l'indice S&P Gsci.
Il risultato ha sorpreso alcuni dei nomi più noti della finanza Usa. Bill Gross, che gestisce il fondo obbligazionario più grande del mondo per Pimco in California, ha venduto buoni del Tesoro Usa quest'anno e ha pagato la decisione con un ritorno solo del 2,55% finora. Meredith Whitney, l'analista che nel 2007 aveva previsto correttamente l'impatto della crisi sul colosso bancario Citigroup (NYSE: C - notizie) , ha detto alla fine dell'anno scorso che ci sarebbero stati default per centinaia di miliardi di dollari tra gli emettitori di bond municipali, cosa che non è successa.
E Nassim Taleb, il matematico della New York University e gestore di fondi diventato una delle voci più seguite dal mercato con il libro "Il cigno nero" sulle catastrofi impreviste, aveva consigliato nel febbraio scorso di evitare i buoni del Tesoro. Gli orsi del reddito fisso non avevano previsto il comportamento delle famiglie americane, che hanno aumentato i risparmi e ridotto i debiti, liberando denaro per investimenti che si è diretto, complice l'incertezza dovuta alla crisi economica, verso le obbligazioni ritenute affidabili piuttosto che su un mercato azionario altalenante.
E con il permanere della crisi economica americana, potrebbe essere una tendenza di lungo periodo: "Difficile immaginare uno scenario in cui la crescita economica sia al di sopra del due per cento, con l'austerità fiscale e la disoccupazione che persiste", secondo Rick Rieder, direttore degli investimenti in reddito fisso di Blackrock (NYSE: BLK - notizie) , il maggiore gestore di fondi al mondo con un portafoglio di 3.450 milardi di dollari.
Che gli investitori ormai preferiscano le obbligazioni lo dicono i dati raccolti da Bloomberg, secondo i quali i fondi comuni obbligazionari hanno attratto capitale per 790 miliardi di dollari dal 2008 a oggi, mentre i fondi comuni azionari hanno perso 341 miliardi nello stesso periodo. I dati della Federal Reserve dicono che le banche americane hanno aumentato il portafoglio di bond del Tesoro, e anche i titoli del debito Usa in mano a investitori stranieri sono cresciuti a 4.570 miliardi di dollari in agosto rispetto a 4.440 alla fine dello scorso anno.
lunedì, 31 ottobre 2011 - 17:00
Non era mai successo da prima della guerra civile americana, 150 anni fa: le obbligazioni sono andate meglio del mercato azionario, negli ultimi trent'anni. Il ritorno sugli investimenti nel reddito fisso è stato infatti del 6,25% contro un aumento del 2,18% dell'indice S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC - notizie) , la misura più ampia del ritorno sulle azioni Usa.
Dietro alla corsa dei prezzi dei titoli del reddito fisso ci sono inflazione relativamente bassa negli Usa (1,5% quest'anno in media), l'aumento del risparmio degli americani, crescita economica bassa e la politica della Federal Reserve di tenere i tassi a pressoché zero. Le azioni sono salite più delle obbligazioni in tutti i periodi trentennali dal 1861 a oggi, secondo Jeremy Siegel, professore di finanza alla University of Pennsylvania.
Dati di Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER - notizie) dicono che quest'anno i titoli del Tesoro Usa hanno guadagnato il 7,23%, i titoli del debito municipale l'8,17, le obbligazioni societarie il 6,24 e i titoli legati al mercato dei mutui il 5,11%. Ritorni che hanno eclissato quelli delle
azioni, con l'S&P500 sostanzialmente invariato quest'anno dopo il rally di ottobre e le materie prime in rialzo solo dello 0,25% secondo l'indice S&P Gsci.
Il risultato ha sorpreso alcuni dei nomi più noti della finanza Usa. Bill Gross, che gestisce il fondo obbligazionario più grande del mondo per Pimco in California, ha venduto buoni del Tesoro Usa quest'anno e ha pagato la decisione con un ritorno solo del 2,55% finora. Meredith Whitney, l'analista che nel 2007 aveva previsto correttamente l'impatto della crisi sul colosso bancario Citigroup (NYSE: C - notizie) , ha detto alla fine dell'anno scorso che ci sarebbero stati default per centinaia di miliardi di dollari tra gli emettitori di bond municipali, cosa che non è successa.
E Nassim Taleb, il matematico della New York University e gestore di fondi diventato una delle voci più seguite dal mercato con il libro "Il cigno nero" sulle catastrofi impreviste, aveva consigliato nel febbraio scorso di evitare i buoni del Tesoro. Gli orsi del reddito fisso non avevano previsto il comportamento delle famiglie americane, che hanno aumentato i risparmi e ridotto i debiti, liberando denaro per investimenti che si è diretto, complice l'incertezza dovuta alla crisi economica, verso le obbligazioni ritenute affidabili piuttosto che su un mercato azionario altalenante.
E con il permanere della crisi economica americana, potrebbe essere una tendenza di lungo periodo: "Difficile immaginare uno scenario in cui la crescita economica sia al di sopra del due per cento, con l'austerità fiscale e la disoccupazione che persiste", secondo Rick Rieder, direttore degli investimenti in reddito fisso di Blackrock (NYSE: BLK - notizie) , il maggiore gestore di fondi al mondo con un portafoglio di 3.450 milardi di dollari.
Che gli investitori ormai preferiscano le obbligazioni lo dicono i dati raccolti da Bloomberg, secondo i quali i fondi comuni obbligazionari hanno attratto capitale per 790 miliardi di dollari dal 2008 a oggi, mentre i fondi comuni azionari hanno perso 341 miliardi nello stesso periodo. I dati della Federal Reserve dicono che le banche americane hanno aumentato il portafoglio di bond del Tesoro, e anche i titoli del debito Usa in mano a investitori stranieri sono cresciuti a 4.570 miliardi di dollari in agosto rispetto a 4.440 alla fine dello scorso anno.
Discepolo
Negusneg Fan Club
Giusto per capire sino a dove riusciremo a spingere la palla di neve sulla collina...
Bill Gross, Pimco : asset a rischio, parola d?ordine è vendere | Rischio Calcolato
Bill Gross, Pimco : asset a rischio, parola d?ordine è vendere | Rischio Calcolato
tomcat
Forumer attivo
non per autocitarmi, ma come vedrai dal vecchissimo post che precede il tuo
gross aveva già preso una sola nel 2011
comunque le mutande di lamiera sono sempre di rigore
amorgos34
CHIAGNI & FOTTI SRL
Ciao,
primo mio intervento su questo 3d.
JPM vede a fine anno prossimo il decennale americano al 3,75% e il bund al 2,50%.
Io ho iniziato, gradualmente da giugno, con cifre non grandissime, a shortare a leva il t- bond (forse lunedì esco, ascoltando la raccomandazione di brevissimo di JPM, per rientrare il 19).
Sul bund a mio avviso ci sono troppe variabili che potrebbero anche farlo rientrare sui 140, ma il rialzo dei tassi USA pare certo (se non nella tempistica almeno la direzione è quella).
Rigori/e a porta vuota ?
primo mio intervento su questo 3d.
JPM vede a fine anno prossimo il decennale americano al 3,75% e il bund al 2,50%.
Io ho iniziato, gradualmente da giugno, con cifre non grandissime, a shortare a leva il t- bond (forse lunedì esco, ascoltando la raccomandazione di brevissimo di JPM, per rientrare il 19).
Sul bund a mio avviso ci sono troppe variabili che potrebbero anche farlo rientrare sui 140, ma il rialzo dei tassi USA pare certo (se non nella tempistica almeno la direzione è quella).
Rigori/e a porta vuota ?
Ultima modifica:
apaci2
Ad bestias
El-Erian: What's Happening To Bonds And Why? | Zero Hedge
Concluding remark
Similar to prior periods, history will regard the ongoing phase of dislocations in the bond market as a transitional period of adjustment triggered by changing expectations about policy, the economy and asset preferences – all of which have been significantly turbocharged by a set of temporary and ultimately reversible technical factors. By contrast, history is unlikely to record a change in the important role that fixed income plays over time in prudent asset allocations and diversified investment portfolios – in generating returns, reducing volatility and lowering the risk of severe capital loss.
Concluding remark
Similar to prior periods, history will regard the ongoing phase of dislocations in the bond market as a transitional period of adjustment triggered by changing expectations about policy, the economy and asset preferences – all of which have been significantly turbocharged by a set of temporary and ultimately reversible technical factors. By contrast, history is unlikely to record a change in the important role that fixed income plays over time in prudent asset allocations and diversified investment portfolios – in generating returns, reducing volatility and lowering the risk of severe capital loss.
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