Qui andiamo nel regno del virgolettato.
Ad onor del vero dobbiamo dire che Standard&Poor ha abbassato il rating a BBB+ sul debito a lungo termine ... mentre sul breve (mi pare) abbia confermato la A con prospettive negative.
Di positivo, possiamo leggere tra le righe delle agenzie, che la Bce in qualche modo troverà una "scappatoia" per continuare ad utilizzare i TdS Grecia. E questo, rating a parte, è fondamentale.
Mah, vediamo... a proposito, questo il commento alla rating action di S&P...
Research Update: Greece Long-Term Sovereign Rating Lowered To 'BBB+' On Obstacles To Fiscal Consolidation; Ratings Remain On Watch Neg
Publication date: 16-Dec-2009 00:22:
Overview
- We are lowering the long-term sovereign credit rating on the Hellenic Republic (Greece) to 'BBB+' from 'A-', and the rating remains on CreditWatch negative.
- The downgrade reflects our opinion that the measures the Greek authorities have recently announced to reduce the high fiscal deficit are unlikely, on their own, to lead to a sustainable reduction in the public debt burden. Moreover, we believe that the government's efforts to reform the public finances face domestic obstacles that would likely require sustained efforts over a number of years to overcome.
- The CreditWatch placement reflects our view that the ratings could be further lowered if the government is unable to gain sufficient political support to implement a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation program.
Rating Action
On Dec. 16, 2009, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the Hellenic Republic (Greece) to 'BBB+' from 'A-'.
The long-term ratings on Greece remain on CreditWatch with negative implications, where they were placed on Dec. 7, 2009. The 'A-2' short-term ratings were also placed on CreditWatch negative. The transfer and convertibility assessment remains 'AAA', reflecting Greece's Economic and Monetary Union membership. To view our main economic indicators for Greece, please
click here (RatingsDirect subscribers only).
As part of the rating action on the Hellenic Republic, Standard & Poor's also lowered its senior unsecured debt ratings on Greek banks' government-guaranteed securities, to 'BBB+' from 'A-'. The rating remains on CreditWatch with negative implications, where they were placed on Dec. 7, 2009. The 'A-2' short-term ratings were also placed on CreditWatch negative (see "Ratings List" below for full details).
Rationale
The downgrade reflects our opinion that the measures the Greek authorities have recently announced to reduce the high fiscal deficit are unlikely, on their own, to lead to a sustainable reduction in the public debt burden. Moreover, we believe that the government's efforts to reform the public finances face domestic obstacles that would likely require sustained efforts over a number of years to overcome.
Due to upward revisions to our projections of Greece's general government debt and deficit levels, and the anticipated cost to the government of servicing these obligations, we see Greece's fiscal flexibility diminishing more than we had previously expected. We expect double-digit general government deficits as a percentage of GDP this year and next to raise Greece's government debt burden sharply, to 126% of GDP in 2010 and around 138% of GDP in 2012.
In our view, the increasing debt-service burden narrows the scope for debt stabilization, particularly against the background of what we expect will be a significantly weaker near-term economic growth environment.
In our opinion, several factors increase the challenges currently facing Greek policymakers.
While monetary union membership has made it easier to run fiscal and external deficits in that they have not led to currency pressures, policymakers' ability to unwind imbalances within the confines of a monetary union depends almost solely on fiscal adjustment, especially on the expenditure side.
The adjustment process is made more difficult by the deterioration in Greek competitiveness, which weighs on economic growth prospects. Second, the likelihood that Greece's borrowing costs will continue to rise in real terms will raise the government's financing requirements, independent of the higher interest expenditures associated with an increasing stock of debt.
These issues are somewhat offset in our opinion by the country's relatively high economic prosperity and EMU membership, which continues to provide a stable exchange rate environment. An additional strength is that, despite a recent increase in short-term issuance, the average maturity of the Hellenic Republic's debt stock--at around eight years--is among the highest in the Eurozone.
While we expect the 2009 recession to lead to a lower current account deficit of 9% of GDP this year, compared to 13.8% of GDP in 2008, we believe the underlying structural issues associated with Greece's weaker competitiveness have remained largely unaddressed. In our opinion, this increases the likelihood of a protracted hard landing for the Greek economy, which will make it difficult to depend upon a revenue-side adjustment to close the substantial fiscal deficit.
Greece's weak near-term economic prospects present a challenging policy environment in which to introduce significant reforms. In our view, a portion of the problem stems from the previous government's difficulty in restraining widening budgetary deficits, particularly ahead of the October 2009 general elections.
After reaching almost 13% of GDP in 2009, we now expect the budget deficit to decline to around 10% of GDP in 2010 on the back of the new government's proposed budgetary tightening, which targets a deficit of 9.1% of GDP. That figure would still imply a primary deficit of just under 4% of GDP, or 8% of GDP below our projected debt-stabilizing primary surplus figure of 4% of GDP.
That said, following the October elections, the new government's majority could facilitate the implementation of a reform program--including what we believe are much-needed structural changes in public sector wage-setting practices, the health care and pension systems, and other aspects of the fiscal framework--and the establishment of more credible statistical institutions. In our view, however, the government's announced measures for 2010 are on their own likely to prove insufficient to achieve the deficit target.
Moreover, we believe implementation of such measures may be compromised by apparent commitments to relatively high welfare payments and public sector wages; downside revenue risks related to the economy; and structural weaknesses in tax administration.
The latest information on the government's budgetary strategy from Dec. 14, 2009, includes cuts in social security, employee allowances, and other expenditures, but in our view fails to provide much detail on these measures. Finally, implementation risks arise from the weak economic environment, which could heighten political and social pressures.
CreditWatch
The CreditWatch placement reflects our view that the ratings could be further lowered if the government is unable to gain sufficient political support to implement a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation program. We expect to resolve the CreditWatch placement within the next three to four months, during which time we anticipate the government will provide more detail on its budgetary consolidation strategy, including implementation plans. If political considerations and social pressures hamper progress in establishing a framework for containing the debt burden, we could lower the ratings further.
On the other hand, if over the next three to four months Greece successfully implements a plan that includes deficit-reducing measures or other economic reforms that could lead to a sustained improvement in the debt trajectory, the ratings could be affirmed.