Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

Downturn may push NPLs to 12 pct


By Evgenia Tzortzi - Kathimerini


Banks fear that nonperforming loans (NPLs) will rise to above 10 percent, reaching possibly 12 percent, in the last quarter of the year and for all of 2011, as household disposable income continues to drop and unemployment numbers rise.
The increase of loans in arrears, expected to reach 22 to 26 billion euros, out of the total of 222 billion euros owed, is the biggest headache for banks right now.
Data from the Bank of Greece shows that total outstanding loans held by households in 2009 rose 2.1 percent despite eroding household income levels.
This means that total outstanding credit, as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), rose to 72.8 percent, from 70.9 percent.
The figure is lower than the eurozone average, which stands at 95.4 percent, but still needs to be carefully monitored.
A reason why this figure may pose a threat to banks is the sector’s lack of experience in handling NPLs in similiar crises and its inability to make reliable forecasts for bad loans.
The European Central Bank recently forced six Greek lenders, those that took part in the European stress tests, to adopt NPL forecasts for provisions of around 13 billion euros for the 2010-2011 period.
The Bank of Greece, which plans to conduct its own stress tests on Greek lenders in September, is concerned about the rise of new loans in arrears to 3.9 percent at the end of 2009, up from 2.4 percent in 2008.
The index measures the likelihood of a loan not being repaid, however it is not affected by the rate of credit expansion and loans being written off.
At the end of March this year, the percentage of NPLs reached 8.2 percent of total credit, boosting the amount of bad loans to 20 billion euros.

 

[Grisù]

Che la Germania spinga per una fuoriuscita della Grecia dall'Euro non ne sono convintissimo.

In questo senso i tedeschi stanno cercando di introdurre nuove regole per gestire i default all'interno dell'area. Non vogliono perdere potenziali clienti in termini di esportazione, solo minimizzare i danni in caso di problemi di rifinanziamento del paese stesso.

Peraltro i dati macro della Grecia erano ampiamente prevedibili, con misure depressive come queste si era già stimata la caduta del GDP intorno al 4% non molte settimane fa.

Se non si muove la Francia temo che per la Grecia e a ruota per Portogallo e Irlanda ci sarà poco da fare. Una politica come quella messa in atto dai greci richiederà 3-5 anni per vedere risultati tangibili sul deficit. C'è infine il jolly inflazione che potrebbe aiutare e il ruolo della BcE che allo stato attuale si è mossa sola nelle emergenze per le banche fallendo nel suo compito di stabilizzazione dei mercati (in definitiva ha comprato con un timing assolutamente discutibile).

A breve si risveglieranno gli speculatori con agenzie di rating in avanguardia, occhi aperti....

 

[tommy271]

In questo senso i tedeschi stanno cercando di introdurre nuove regole per gestire i default all'interno dell'area. Non vogliono perdere potenziali clienti in termini di esportazione, solo minimizzare i danni in caso di problemi di rifinanziamento del paese stesso.

Peraltro i dati macro della Grecia erano ampiamente prevedibili, con misure depressive come queste si era già stimata la caduta del GDP intorno al 4% non molte settimane fa.

Se non si muove la Francia temo che per la Grecia e a ruota per Portogallo e Irlanda ci sarà poco da fare. Una politica come quella messa in atto dai greci richiederà 3-5 anni per vedere risultati tangibili sul deficit. C'è infine il jolly inflazione che potrebbe aiutare e il ruolo della BcE che allo stato attuale si è mossa sola nelle emergenze per le banche fallendo nel suo compito di stabilizzazione dei mercati (in definitiva ha comprato con un timing assolutamente discutibile).

A breve si risveglieranno gli speculatori con agenzie di rating in avanguardia, occhi aperti....

Credo che la Francia si stia accodando alla Germania, però non dobbiamo sopravvalutare la tenuta della Merkel: potrebbe esserci un cambio a Berlino con un rimescolamento delle carte...
Alla stato attuale le pressioni degli speculatori sono tornate a farsi sentire, ne sono riprova gli Spread sul Bund e i CDS ... credo faticoso per la Grecia uscire da questa spirale senza un consistente piano di investimenti capace di rilanciare economia e occupazione.
Qualcosa potrebbe esserci: c'è l'interessamento di Cina, Libia, Paesi Arabi e non ultimo, con buona sorpresa, una ripresa dei rapporti con Israele. Insomma un ruolo più centrale per la Grecia.
Non dobbiamo dimenticare inoltre il ruolo della Russia con la sua "famosa e ipotetica" questione di un porto per la Flotta Militare nel Mediterraneo.

Oggettivamente per noi bondisti è dura ... ma non disperiamo.
Le agenzie di rating hanno infierito oltre misura: ormai sotto la B non rimane che la C, oltre non possono andare.

 

[tommy271]

German 10-Year Bonds Post Third Weekly Gain; Investors Flee Peripherals

By Anchalee Worrachate - Aug 14, 2010 8:30 AM GMT+0200

Sat Aug 14 06:30:00 GMT 2010
German 10-year bonds posted their third weekly gain as investors sought the safest assets on concern the fallout from Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will derail the region’s recovery.
Bond yields in France, Germany and Belgium fell to record lows while Irish borrowing costs rose at an auction of bills. A report two days ago showed the Greek economy shrank for a seventh quarter, sending the yield premium investors demand to hold the country’s 10-year bonds rather than bunds to the highest since the European Union announced a 750 billion-euro ($957 billion) package for the region’s most indebted nations.
“There’re a lot of artificial premiums in German bonds from the safe-haven flows from the markets like Greece, Spain or Ireland,” said Robin Marshall, a director of fixed income at Smith & Williamson Investment Management in London. “With problems in those countries, growth is likely to be softer going forward.”
The yield on 10-year German bonds fell 12 basis points from last week to 2.39 percent as of 5:20 p.m. yesterday, after earlier reaching a record low of 2.37 percent. Greek 10-year bonds yields climbed 30 basis points to 10.55 percent.
Bunds rose even as a report yesterday showed Germany’s economy grew in the second quarter at the fastest pace since the country’s reunification two decades ago. German gross domestic product surged 2.2 percent from the first quarter, fueling euro- area growth of 1 percent, the fastest in four years. Economists had forecast GDP would rise 1.3 percent in Germany and 0.7 percent in the entire currency region. Spain’s GDP increased 0.2 percent from the previous quarter.
‘Sluggish at Best’
“While the German growth data for the second quarter has rebounded impressively, the picture at the periphery of Europe is very different with the GDP data from Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy coming in sluggish at best, and in the case of Greece very disappointing,” foreign-exchange analysts at BNP Paribas SA led by Hans-Guenter Redeker in London wrote in a research note yesterday.
Concern the recovery from the worst recession since World War II will be uneven has helped drive demand for the safest securities this year. Spanish bonds returned 1.5 percent this year and Irish debt 0.5 percent, compared with an 8 percent gain from German securities, according to indexes compiled by European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies.
Yields indicate the region’s debt crisis has further to run. Catalonia, which accounts for a fifth of Spanish gross domestic product, has been shut out of public bond markets since March and the extra yield it pays over national government debt has almost tripled this year.
Consumer Prices
The yield difference for Spanish and German 10-year debt widened 32 basis points in the week to 185 basis points, while the Irish-German 10-year bond spread widened 57 basis points to 294 basis points.
Bunds may extend gains next week on speculation prices in the 16-nation euro region fell last month. Euro-area consumer prices fell 0.4 percent in July from June, when they were unchanged, according to a Bloomberg survey before the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg publishes the data on Aug. 16.



(Bloomberg)

 

[METHOS]

Oggettivamente per noi bondisti è dura ... ma non disperiamo.
Le agenzie di rating hanno infierito oltre misura: ormai sotto la B non rimane che la C, oltre non possono andare.

C'è ancora la D... che speriamo di non vedere mai.

Comunque se sarà default non sarà indolore anche per i periferici per cui continuo a pensare che in qualche modo la grecia ne verrà fuori, forse quello più indolore sarebbe quello di riscadenziare le scandenze.

 

[Ilmigliore]

C'è ancora la D... che speriamo di non vedere mai.

Comunque se sarà default non sarà indolore anche per i periferici per cui continuo a pensare che in qualche modo la grecia ne verrà fuori, forse quello più indolore sarebbe quello di riscadenziare le scandenze.

per riscadenziare senza fare default devono scegliere l'adesione su base volontaria....

un paradiso per noi

altrimenti, che senso avrebbe fare default solo per allungare le scadenze?

 

[tommy271]

per riscadenziare senza fare default devono scegliere l'adesione su base volontaria....

un paradiso per noi

altrimenti, che senso avrebbe fare default solo per allungare le scadenze?

Semmai dovrà esserci (incrociamo le dita) haircut o default, le regole le detteranno i greci ... a loro vantaggio.
Il default sarà impietoso mentre un haircut, eventualmente gestito dalla BCE, sarà più lieve: un eventuale taglio potrà essere, sommariamente, quello che si applica attualmente per i "collaterali" (bisognerà vedere su quali titoli e quali scadenze ...).
Forse il quadro sarà più chiaro verso fine anno.
Al momento, per i bondisti, è riservato solo incognita e buon rateo.

 

[tommy271]

FLATTERING FINANCIAL TIMES ARTICLE ON PAPANDREOU

The German edition of the “Financial Times” refers to Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and the austerity measures he took to take the country out of the fiscal crisis. The article’s author writes on Papandreou in a flattering style and wishes that Germany had a Prime Minister like Mr. Papandreou.

The tiltle of the article is: “Our person in Athens” and the subtitle is “Greece has what Germany misses. A really audacious politician in leadership who makes efforts to reform the system!” The writer underlines that “Mr. Papandreou abided by his commitments to Eurogroup in order to save the country from the severe fiscal crisis, taking austerity measures unknown to the whole Europe.”

Furthermore, the writer notes that Greece has become a guinea pig for the whole Europe, adding that if Greece manages to the escape the fiscal crisis, then Angela Merkel, will learn a lesson: politics can be glorious only if its representatives dare!”

Finally the writer compares the Greek Prime Minister with an ancient Greek who does not run away, even if he loses the battle, underlining that: “Europe must thank him as he did not choose to bankrupt or renegotiate the debt, something that would have made the lives of the Greek citizens easier..”


(Greek Reporter)

 

[tommy271]

Summer breather in Greece ahead of austerity push


By John Hadoulis (AFP) –


ATHENS — On the heels of a debt crisis that pushed their country close to bankruptcy this year, Greeks are savouring a badly-needed summer breather ahead of a new austerity drive expected next month.
Hundreds of thousands, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou included, have flocked to beaches for a holiday respite some say could be their last before living conditions are drastically changed by wage cuts and price hikes.
The exodus peaks this weekend ahead of the Dormition (Assumption) of the Virgin Mary feast on August 15, one of Greece's foremost public holidays.

"These could be my last calm holidays for a while," says Thanassis, an advertising company employee vacationing on the island of Serifos, where the overworked Greek finance minister also reportedly took a respite.
"Everybody is waiting for September without knowing whether it will be a new beginning, or the beginning of the end," he told AFP.

Papandreou's Socialist government, which has imposed draconian cuts to put right decades of fiscal mismanagement, has a full plate of reforms due, many of them likely to spark discontent from unions in the wake of six general strikes and protests this year against earlier measures.

Officials want to liberalise a number of professions where restrictions on entry or pricing have stymied competition for years, including freight truckers, taxi drivers, notaries, pharmacists, engineers and architects.
The truckers' union last month reacted with a week-long haulage strike that nearly starved the country of fuel at the height of the tourism season.

The government is also under EU pressure to open an energy market currently dominated by state electricity operator PPC and to overhaul ailing state railways OSE which it says is Europe's most troubled public company.
Both PPC and OSE unionists have pledged to fight back.

The reforms are closely monitored by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund which in May bailed out Greece with a massive loan after fears over the state of its economy pushed Athens' borrowing costs to prohibitive levels.
The loan, worth 110 billion euros (141 billion dollars) over three years, is being released in stages depending on Greece's progress on the austerity plan.

Papandreou, who took a break on the scenic Cycladic island of Paros after a grueling first 10 months in office, must also think ahead to local elections in November under a new administrative system involving fewer municipalities that has angered some local leaders.

The premier reportedly spent his time on the island swimming, canoeing and sampling local taverna fare but is also believed to be planning a cabinet reshuffle and drafting a keynote speech on the economy in early September.
Meanwhile, Greeks have been coming to grips with post-crisis reality in the country which is caught in a deepening recession spiral, with emergency taxes pushing up prices amid widespread wage and pension cuts.
The output slump accelerated with a sharp second-quarter contraction of 1.5 percent after a 0.8-percent shrinkage in the first quarter.

Unemployment was officially recorded at 12 percent in May with unions warning the real figures are much higher.
The national traders' association this week reported that 17 percent of businesses in central Athens have shut down because of the crisis while inflation, at 5.5 percent in July, is the highest since 1997.

"We take better care of our money these days," notes Vassilis Vassilopoulos, a public administration employee relaxing at his family summer home in the Peloponnese after his contract was not renewed earlier this year.
"We used to take a week's vacation abroad but this year we'll stay closer to home," he said.


***
Un pò il punto della situazione.

 

[tommy271]

Qui potrete leggere il punto di vista dei "pessimisti":

Strategies for Greeces financial recovery - by Christina Pomoni - Helium

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