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tommy271

Forumer storico
Papandreou Returns to Greek Jobless Black Spot That Propelled Him to Power

By Maria Petrakis - Sep 10, 2010 1:01 AM GMT+0200 Thu Sep 09 23:01:00


Prime Minister George Papandreou is returning to the northern Greek city that propelled him to power one year ago as his policies turn it into the country’s unemployment black spot.
Thessaloniki and cities across northern Greece are bearing the brunt of Papandreou’s austerity drive as he cuts spending to narrow the European Union’s second-biggest budget deficit. Unemployment is the highest in Greece and companies including German retailer Aldi Sued are shutting down stores or moving to neighboring Bulgaria to tap cheaper labor costs. For those still in work, wage cuts are starting to bite.

It’s a far cry from the promises of higher salaries and more government spending that Papandreou, 58, pledged when he visited Greece’s second-largest city on the campaign trail a year ago.
“Last year when I heard him I thought he may do something, something may change,” said Niki Paschou, 36, who’s been unable to find a job in Thessaloniki for the past eight years. “Not anymore. Whatever he tells me, we won’t believe him. People are very angry.”

Papandreou is scheduled to speak at the Vellidio convention center tomorrow. His speech will be broadcast nationwide.
Unemployment in Thessaloniki and the surrounding region was 13.1 percent in May compared with the national average of 12 percent. In eastern Macedonia and Thrace, the region bordering Bulgaria and Turkey, it was 15.9 percent.

Growth Drive

Northern Greece swung behind Papandreou’s Socialist Party in last year’s election and holding onto the support of Paschou and others like her is Papandreou’s latest challenge. Papandreou was earlier this year forced to push through spending cuts in the teeth of riots and strikes to satisfy the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and bond investors.
Now he needs to revive growth and boost jobs without compromising progress made in cutting the deficit.
Opinion polls show that Papandreou’s Pasok party could lose its majority if new elections were held, though it’s still the largest party. The next vote isn’t due until 2013.

Current government policy won’t help the economy return to growth, according to 69.3 percent of those surveyed in a poll conducted by MRB Hellas SA and published by Real News on Sept. 5.
“Fiscal consolidation won’t happen if the economy doesn’t recover,” said Diego Iscaro, an economist at IHS Global Insight in London. “The impact of all the tax increases and spending cuts are going to be felt more strongly in the second half. The first challenge is how to make the economy grow again given the poor state of fiscal accounts.”

Austerity

Unions representing private and public sector workers are planning protests in Thessaloniki this week, renewing opposition to austerity measures.
In northern Greece, one in four manufacturing companies reported a loss last year, according to a survey of 300 members of the Federation of Industries of Northern Greece. Aldi Sued, the German discount retailer, said in July it will shut down its Thessaloniki-centered network of 38 stores in Greece.

“Enough is enough,” said Efi Sarigioli, a hairdresser in Thessaloniki, which was named after a half-sister of Alexander the Great. Business at her salon has fallen by one third this year, leaving her with an income of about 1,000 euros ($1,275) a month. “I just need to know that soon things will recover.”
Smaller groups are also planning protests. Patriotic Front, a new group that says Greece should renegotiate its debt rather than suffer years of “financial slavery,” has called on residents of the city to rain old shoes down on Papandreou as he travels through its streets. Police officials are deploying 4,500 officers to prevent violence.

‘New Wealth’

Papandreou said last year that Greeks must choose between “cutbacks” and “investment.” “The country can come out of this crisis and the economy can return to growth and create new wealth,” he said. He went on to win by 10 percentage points, the largest margin since 1981
One year later, the situation has changed. Greece was forced to ask for a 110 billion-euro rescue form the EU and the IMF after Papandreou revealed the deficit was twice the level previously reported. Investors still aren’t convinced Greece will avoid a restructuring of its debt. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Greek 10-year bonds compared with German bunds rose as high as 957 basis points on Sept. 8, just 16 points short of the record touched on May 7.

Recession

The European Commission said Aug. 19 that the structural reform agenda, which includes opening up labor and product markets to boost competitiveness, needs to be accelerated to unleash growth potential.
The economy is forecast to shrink 4 percent this year, with Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou optimistic the contraction may be milder. The economy will shrink about 2.6 percent again next year. Papaconstantinou said last week he’s considering alternatives to an increase in value-added tax for some services that will hurt businesses.
Nikos Plakas, 39, whose business assembling shoes has been hurt by cheaper competitors in Bulgaria, said he is expecting nothing from either Papandreou or other Greek politicians.
“They should get up and leave us alone,” he said. “All 300 of them. We need some new blood.”



To contact the reporter on this story: Maria Petrakis in Athens at [email protected]

***
Sono sempre buoni i servizi della Petrakis da Atene ...
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Europe's crisis a win-win opportunity for China

Pallavi Aiyar / Brussels September 10, 2010, 0:49 IST


While Europe’s sovereign debt crisis may have shaken the euro and exposed fissures in the European Union, one country’s hand in the region has been strengthened: China’s. It has converted Europe’s crisis into an opportunity to extend Beijing’s clout in the region.
As matters came to a head in the first half of the year, with Greece within a hair’s breath of defaulting on its voluminous debt, the EU was a divided entity. Germany, the region’s most prosperous nation, proved reluctant to aid its southern cousin. It took months of wrangling before Brussels was able to offer a bailout package of substance to aid Athens.

But in June, only hours after credit agency Moody’s downgraded Greece’s credit rating to junk, it was China that held out a financial lifeline, in the form of a multibillion euro investment package. While signing the deal, Chinese vice premier Zhang Dejiang gave the eurozone’s weakest link a public vote of confidence, declaring Beijing’s belief in Athens’ ability to overcome its fiscal problems, an announcement that moved markets positively, following weeks of turmoil. Under the agreement, Chinese company Cosco undertook the construction of up to 15 dry bulk carriers in Greece. It had already taken over the cargo management at Piraeus, the eastern Mediterranean's premier dockyard, on a 35-year concession worth $1billion last year, despite heated opposition from trade unions. Other than shipping, tourism and telecommunication were the main sectors included in the deal.

At the time, Greek deputy prime minister Theodoros Pangalos praised China in an interview, echoing sentiments often expressed by African nations indebted to Beijing. “They are not like these Wall Street people, pushing financial investments on paper. The Chinese deal in real things, in merchandise. And, they will help the real economy in Greece,” he said.
A month later, as fears of the Greek contagion spreading to Spain gathered momentum, the Chinese once again stepped in, buying ¤400 million of Spanish bonds. Last month, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, while on a trip to China, said he hoped the Chinese would continue to increase their holdings of Spanish government debt.

It’s not only debt-laden southern European countries that find themselves beholden to Beijing. Even power house Germany’s continued economic buoyancy owes much to its exports to China. Jonathan Holslag, research fellow at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies, notes that Germany’s economic recovery over the past year is due in substantial part to its exports of cars and advanced machinery to China.

Twin strategy

Holslag says China’s “charm offensive” is two-pronged. Their gestures of goodwill help to bolster the euro. And, private and state-owned Chinese companies are using the current crisis in Europe as an opening to secure interesting deals and access to technological know-how. Examples include the $1.8 billion acquisition in March by Chinese car maker Geely of Ford’s ailing Volvo unit.
Access to technology is also increasingly being built into deals struck by Chinese corporations. For example, the Greek package included an exchange of know-how between China's Huawei Technologies and OTE, the Greek telecom organisation.

While the commercial interest behind companies capitalising on the European downturn is clear, reasons for the Chinese government’s “goodwill” gestures are murkier. Holslag believes Beijing is motivated by the desire to ward off creeping protectionism in Europe, thus ensuring its most important export market remains open. In July, when German chancellor Angela Merkel visited Beijing, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was explicit in making the connection.
“The European market has been in the past, is now and will be in the future, one of the main investment markets for China’s foreign exchange reserves,” he pledged, his words given depth by the fact that at $2,450 billion, China’s stockpile of forex reserves is the largest in the world. “At this time, when some European countries are suffering sovereign debt crises, China has always held out a helping hand.”
In return, Merkel made a joint statement with Wen, vowing to oppose protectionism in Europe.

Payoffs

There are other pluses for Beijing from its increasing influence. Chinese demands for the lifting of an arms embargo have been already publicly backed by Spain. Holslag believes with Beijing’s new leverage with certain EU member-states, backing for this and other issues like the granting of market economy status to China will intensify.
More, strong public support for the euro is a smart political move at a time when China’s exchange rate policy is still vulnerable to international criticism.

Economic clout can translate into greater political influence, a lesson the Chinese know well and apply in their diplomacy across the world. Europe’s economic woes have opened room for these techniques to be used within the EU.
For Holslag, the outcome of Chinese efforts remain in the balance. “There is growing concern in Europe over Chinese assertiveness but there is also increasing restraint in acting against Chinese interests,” he concludes.
In sum, the region’s economic fragility has allowed the Chinese government to project itself as a benevolent supporter of the euro, even as it acquires strategic leverage and Chinese companies sniff profitable deals. The kind of win-win situation that Beijing is partial to.


(Business Standard.com)
 

Imark

Forumer storico
Sempre OTC, mercoledì sera. Continuano a non essere aggiornati i prezzi BBML. Se la situazione dovesse continuare, chiederò a Massimo S., ove fosse disponibile a fare questa carineria al forum, se può verificare la ragione di questa sospensione, che incide particolarmente sulla possibilità di tenere d'occhio l'OTC dei GGBei, per le ragioni più volte esposte.

Peraltro segnalo che anche l'indicativo Xtrakter per i GGBei (pur non molto affidabile, e che sono restio ad indicare) per il 2025 è aggiornato a l'altro ieri, segno che gli scambi sono davvero al lumicino. Per il 2030 invece l'indicativo Xtrakter (ripeto, da prendere con le pinze, ma non c'è di meglio) è a 50,08, dato di ieri.

I prezzi aggiornati sono dunque solo gli Xtrakter, i BBML sono del 6 settembre scorso.

il 2013 - 84,27 (BBML) 83,70 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 79,69 (BBML) 78,58 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 78,60 (BBML) 77,95 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 67,18 (BBML) 66,33 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 65,65 (BBML) 64,53 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 65,14 (BBML) 63,40 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 68,67 (BBML) 67,11 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 70,51 (BBML) 69,69 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 64,30 (BBML) 63,59 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 59,35 (BBML) 58,68 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 60,41 (BBML) 60,05 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 53,86 (BBML) 53,35 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 54,13 (BBML) 54,00 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 53,04 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 48,26 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter

OTC ieri: continuano a non visualizzarsi i prezzi di BBML, attendiamo ancora qualche giorno per vedere se dura o se si riprende ad averli.

Intanto ieri giornata positiva per i TDS greci, in buon rimbalzo sul giorno precedente. Bene i titoli più lunghi, che avevano patito i cali dei giorni scorsi in misura molto modesta. Quelli di lunghezza media e fino al decennale anche rimbalzano bene, ma in misura insufficiente a recuperare i cali dei giorni scorsi.

Per i GGBei, dò il dato che posso attingere, sebbene da prendere con le pinze, per quanto già detto, ossia l'indicativo Xtrakter, che per il 2025 è ieri 49,78, mentre per il 2030 manca del tutto.

I prezzi aggiornati sono dunque solo gli Xtrakter, i BBML sono del 6 settembre scorso.

il 2013 - 84,27 (BBML) 84,02 (Xtrakter);
il 2014 - 79,69 (BBML) 79,76 (Xtrakter);
il 2015 - 78,60 (BBML) 78,31 (Xtrakter);
il 2016 - 67,18 (BBML) 66,46 (Xtrakter);
il 2017 - 65,65 (BBML) 64,85 (Xtrakter);
il 2018 - 65,14 (BBML) 64,00 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6% 68,67 (BBML) 67,47 (Xtrakter);
il 2019 6.5% 70,51 (BBML) 69,92 (Xtrakter);
il 2022 - 64,30 (BBML) 63,70 (Xtrakter);
il 2024 - 59,35 (BBML) 59,00 (Xtrakter);
il 2026 - 60,41 (BBML) 60,47 (Xtrakter);
il 2037 - 53,86 (BBML) 54,00 (Xtrakter);
il 2040 - 54,13 (BBML) 54,60 (Xtrakter);

GGBei 2025 - 53,04 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
GGBei 2030 - 48,26 (BBML), non significativo su Xtrakter
 

Grisù

Forumer attivo
Greece May Need to Extend Loans Six Years to Avoid Default, JPMorgan Says

Greece may need to extend a 110- billion-euro ($140 billion) bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund by an extra three to six years to avoid a default on its debt, JPMorgan Chase & Co said.
“I don’t think they have a choice, really, given their deficit is so large,”

:D Ma questi personaggi li assumono tutti insieme con un solo cervello condiviso?
Con altri sei anni, alle condizioni attuali praticamente presterebbero per un valore equivalente al debito greco sul mercato.

Bella analisi del piffero, come se la debt duration media non possa cambiare così come la natura degli interessi nel corso degli anni. Più leggo l'incompetenza di questi interventi più sale la convinzione che la Grecia non fallirà.
 

Grisù

Forumer attivo
Appuntamento da tener d'occhio nella prossima settimana....
Greece to sell 6-month T-bills on Tuesday - the exact amount will be announced today
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
:D Ma questi personaggi li assumono tutti insieme con un solo cervello condiviso?
Con altri sei anni, alle condizioni attuali praticamente presterebbero per un valore equivalente al debito greco sul mercato.

Bella analisi del piffero, come se la debt duration media non possa cambiare così come la natura degli interessi nel corso degli anni. Più leggo l'incompetenza di questi interventi più sale la convinzione che la Grecia non fallirà.

Forse nel 2013 ci troveremmo nelle condizioni difficili di rimborsare i prestiti ricevuti, quindi un allungamento dei termini di pagamento potrebbe essere una condizione per facilitare una ripresa dei corsi.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Competitiveness not a Greek word


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Country drops 12 places in global ranking; downtrend may not be reversed for at least a few years

By Stelios Bouras - Kathimerini English Edition


Greece slipped down a global list assessing competitiveness levels, falling below nations such as Rwanda and Botswana, in a decline unlikely to be reversed for a number of years.
According to an annual survey put together by the World Economic Forum, Greece fell 12 places to position 83 among 139 countries.
“The decline follows the well-publicized revision of the government’s fiscal spending numbers and the ensuing sovereign debt crisis,” it said.
Greece scored poorly due to its public institutions, assessments of government efficiency and corruption, and its inefficient labor market, the report added.
The rankings are based on 12 pillars of competitiveness, including, among others, an assessment of infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, health and primary education, financial market sophistication and innovation. Switzerland topped the global list, followed by Sweden and Singapore.
Scared of shaking the public opinion boat, consecutive Greek governments have failed to make crucial reforms to keep up with the country’s faster-evolving neighbors. Changes such as making it easier to start a business and moves to stamp out corruption have been repeatedly promised but not delivered.
Experts, however, believe that Greece’s commitments to its lenders, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund, in exchange for a 110-billion-euro rescue plan will force the government into swift action but improvements will take time to appear.
“Conditions are more ripe for reforms to go ahead, such as changes to closed professions,” National Bank economist Nikos Magginas told Kathimerini English Edition. “The benefits will start to appear in the medium term.”
Among changes likely to take place at the end of the year is the opening up of closed-shop professions and the privatization of loss-making state enterprises, such as the badly indebted Hellenic Railways Organization.
Looking ahead, the report struck a positive note, saying that Greece has a number of strengths, “including a reasonably well-educated work force that is adept at adopting new technologies for productivity enhancements.” [email protected]
 

Grisù

Forumer attivo
Greece PDMA Chief: Spreads 'Irrelevant' In Current Situation

***
Non ha tutti i torti ... il mio è un giudizio interessato.

Concordo siano poco rilevanti allo stato attuale, in linea teorica potrebbero aumentare le emissioni a breve per non far crescere la linea dei rendimenti rispetto alla media attuale.
Ricordo che gli interessi pagati dalla Grecia non sono quelli quotati dal mercato ma quelli derivati da quanto già emesso + interessi sul prestito IMF/BCE + interessi sulle emissioni a breve.

Per questa ragione gli analisti che si focalizzano sul debito e sugli interessi dimostrano di non capire un tubo, piuttosto il problema del pil decrescente e del deficit commerciale rappresentano elementi particolarmente critici per il futuro del paese e saranno quelli a decretarne il destino nei prossimi anni.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
PM hears local concerns ahead of trade fair


ANA


Prime Minister George Papandreou (third from the left) met with business and worker groups in Thessaloniki yesterday ahead of this weekend’s launch of the Thessaloniki International Fair. Data released by the National Confederation of Greek Commerce (ESEE) yesterday showed that small and medium-sized stores in most of northern Greece are closing at a slower rate than in Athens. Increased competition from large department stores and the effects of the economic crisis on consumer spending led to 17 percent of small and medium-sized shops closing in the capital in the first six months of the year, while stores in northern Greek cities closed at a slower rate over the same amount of time, ESEE said. The cities surveyed were Thessaloniki, Kavala, Kozani, Veria, Edessa and Larissa. Of 1,239 shops surveyed in Thessaloniki, there were 125 closures, about 10 percent. Veria had the lowest rate, with 58 out of 655 closing, or 9 percent. Larissa had a 12 percent closure rate, while Kavala came in at 10 percent.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
T-bill auction set for next week


Greece will auction 26-week Treasury bills on Tuesday, a senior official at the country’s debt agency PDMA said yesterday, as the country activates a plan for monthly sales of short-term paper that it hopes will make the issuance process easier.
“We’ll start with 26-week T-bills next week,” the official, who did not want to be named, told Reuters. “The amount to be auctioned will be announced on Friday.”
Financed by loans from its eurozone peers and the International Monetary Fund under a 110-billion-euro bailout after its borrowing costs became prohibitive, Greece had been tapping markets for T-bill rollovers only.
Last month, the Greek government decided to switch to regular, monthly T-bill issues instead of quarterly auctions to have more leeway in managing its short-term debt.
The change accords with an EU-IMF memorandum that envisaged Greece switching to monthly T-bill issues this month.
Meanwhile, Norway, which has amassed the world’s second-biggest sovereign wealth fund, says Greece won’t default on its debts.
The Scandinavian country’s $450 billion Government Pension Fund Global has stocked up on Greek debt, as well as the bonds of Spain, Italy and Portugal. Finance Minister Sigbjorn Johnsen says he backs the strategy, which contributed to a 3.4 percent loss on European fixed income in the second quarter, compared with gains on bonds in Asia and the Americas.
“The point is, do you expect these guys to default?” said Harvinder Sian, senior fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group, in an interview with Bloomberg. “Norway has taken the view that they will not. The Greek holdings are particularly interesting because the consensus on the market is that they will at some point restructure or default.”
Norway says its long-term perspective will protect it from losses. “One could say we are investing for infinity,” according to Johnsen. “It is important when you look at the time scope of the fund and the investments that there should be a portion of active management.”


(Kathimerini.gr)

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