discipline
Forumer storico
un dato agghiacciante...
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (5 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
un dato agghiacciante...
paologorgo
Chapter 11
dipende.
fai un haircut ad un elettore e sei disoccupato, lo fai ad uno straniero, ti fischiano solo le orecchie...
discipline
Forumer storico
dipende.
fai un haircut ad un elettore e sei disoccupato, lo fai ad uno straniero, ti fischiano solo le orecchie...
si, capisco.. ma come fotografia della situazione è a dir poco lugubre...
paologorgo
Chapter 11
condivido.
discipline
Forumer storico
diventa sempre piu complesso capire chi salva chi e a quale prezzo..e quando il salvatore di oggi avra' bisogno a sua volta..
decisamente siamo oltre il punto degli aiuti come flebo al paziente..qui il dottore non emette il certificato di morte..
stiamo a vedere quale sara' l'esito di queste politiche alla disperata..sperando che la situazione migliori
decisamente siamo oltre il punto degli aiuti come flebo al paziente..qui il dottore non emette il certificato di morte..
stiamo a vedere quale sara' l'esito di queste politiche alla disperata..sperando che la situazione migliori
Grisù
Forumer attivo
Ma perchè, pensavate veramente che parte del fondo di 25 miliardi girato alle banche greche non sarebbe servito per finanziare le aste governative?
Lo schema ponzi prosegue e non è nemmeno l'unico purtroppo.
Vedremo il mese prossimo se la strategia è di ridurre progressivamente gli interessi delle nuove aste oppure se stanno andando a caso (più probabile conoscendo l'affidabilità dei greci
).
Asta interlocutoria, mi pare che anche il mercato l'abbia prezzata senza particolari scossoni in positivo o negativo.
Lo schema ponzi prosegue e non è nemmeno l'unico purtroppo.
Vedremo il mese prossimo se la strategia è di ridurre progressivamente gli interessi delle nuove aste oppure se stanno andando a caso (più probabile conoscendo l'affidabilità dei greci
).Asta interlocutoria, mi pare che anche il mercato l'abbia prezzata senza particolari scossoni in positivo o negativo.
tommy271
Forumer storico
diventa sempre piu complesso capire chi salva chi e a quale prezzo..e quando il salvatore di oggi avra' bisogno a sua volta..
decisamente siamo oltre il punto degli aiuti come flebo al paziente..qui il dottore non emette il certificato di morte..
stiamo a vedere quale sara' l'esito di queste politiche alla disperata..sperando che la situazione migliori
Finchè banche e bond si sostengono vicendevolmente siamo in una botte di ferro. Non ci può essere default o haircut senza incrinare la salute del paziente.
Intanto si prende tempo: il sostegno della Bce c'è sempre, il governo sta riformando il paese. Non mi fa paura un deficit al 140/150% del PIL quanto la sostenibilità dello stesso. Ma qui i pareri sono discordanti (e così pure le teorie).
... Poi dalle flebo si può tornare in forma ... meglio di prima
.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Dopo il netto recupero della giornata di lunedì, ieri altra battuta d'arresto sul fronte degli spread/bund.
Stabili invece i CDS della nostra Grecia, sempre sotto quota 900: ieri sera a 883 punti, probabilità default al 51,72%. Mentre invece l'Irlanda segna un 27,49% e il Portogallo 25,02%.
Per i nostri investimenti rimane sempre valida l'alternativa del Perù: qui siamo in una botte di ferro, con la percentuale di default siamo al 7,87....
Grecia 923 pb. (915)
Irlanda 353 pb. (341)
Portogallo 340 pb. (334)
Spagna 179 pb. (173)
Italia 148 pb. (142)
Stabili invece i CDS della nostra Grecia, sempre sotto quota 900: ieri sera a 883 punti, probabilità default al 51,72%. Mentre invece l'Irlanda segna un 27,49% e il Portogallo 25,02%.
Per i nostri investimenti rimane sempre valida l'alternativa del Perù: qui siamo in una botte di ferro, con la percentuale di default siamo al 7,87...
.Grecia 923 pb. (915)
Irlanda 353 pb. (341)
Portogallo 340 pb. (334)
Spagna 179 pb. (173)
Italia 148 pb. (142)
tommy271
Forumer storico
MF Staff:Greece Fiscal Steps Not Yet Needed to Hit Spend ingTarget
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following is the text of the International Monetary Fund staff appraisal of the Greek loan program released Tuesday as part of a large package of documents that accompanied the first review of the three-year standby loan agreement which was approved Friday, authorizing release of the second tranche worth E2.57 billion:
STAFF APPRAISAL
26. Staff's overall assessment is that the program has made a strong start. The end-June quantitative performance criteria have been met, led by forceful implementation of the fiscal program, and major reforms are ahead of schedule. However, important challenges and risks remain.
27. The ambitious fiscal consolidation program remains on track, but pressure points are evident. The vigorous implementation of the fiscal program -- not least the determination to under-spend at the state level in order to offset shortfalls at sub-national level -- is much welcome. Staff projections suggest that continued under-execution of discretionary state budget spending, by E4 billion at year-end, is necessary to ensure that the end-December targets are met. Staff shares the authorities' assessment that this is possible, and that additional fiscal measures are not warranted at this juncture. However, such under-execution can only be a stop-gap measure until more fundamental fiscal reforms -- improved expenditure control and tax administration -- take hold.
28. The program's credibility hinges critically on improving tax compliance. The government appears determined, but is likely to be fiercely tested by an entrenched and pervasive culture of tax evasion and opposition from within the tax service. Progress is bound to be gradual, but a determined pursuit of tax evaders through the presumptive tax mechanism and through the work of the task forces pursuing high-income individuals is essential. Without improved compliance, restoring fiscal sustainability will likely require additional hikes in tax rates and painful expenditure cuts in the coming years. With concerns about the fairness of the distribution of the burden of adjustment already evident, this would greatly risk the broad social and political support that is essential to the success of the program.
29. Improving expenditure controls at sub-national levels of government is another important challenge. The problems here are not unexpected considering institutional weaknesses and the extensive past recourse to guaranteeing borrowing by state enterprises. The sweeping reform of local governments now in place is likely to entail significant savings. But while a new ("golden") rule limiting municipalities' capital expenditure is sound, it could still allow a rise in total expenditure inconsistent with overall general government targets. The government should seek agreement with the new municipal governments to ensure that this does not happen. The strengthening of financial control and procurement in the health sector is also important. This sector is a main source of spending pressures, and efforts to improve its financial discipline must continue. As to state enterprises -- for instance, the railways -- a planned transfer of debt to the budget and a requirement that subsidies be included in the state budget will -- by improving transparency -- facilitate informed decisions about public spending. This must, however, be accompanied by reforms to ensure that these enterprises become financially sound.
30. Restoring competitiveness and boosting growth are critical to the program's success. Competitiveness risks are highlighted by the jump in domestic inflation and tardy adjustment in the external current account. Looking forward, the focus therefore now naturally begins to shift from the immediate challenge of regaining fiscal control to the many areas of the real economy requiring deep reform. The adoption of far-reaching pension and labor market reforms ahead of schedule augurs well for the government's determination to undertake difficult reforms. Indeed, the pension reform might be among the most ambitious undertaken by any country in one step. Substantive labor market reform is also underway. This has clearly impressed, in Greece and abroad.
31. Looking forward, priority in structural reforms should be given to those that could start an early recovery in growth, competitiveness, and employment. This points to liberalization of closed professions, deregulation, and the reduction in barriers to development of the tourism and retail sectors, where the growth potential appears to be particularly large. Consideration should also be given to strengthening the privatization program, which right now has a somewhat timid role in the governments overall strategy. In some of these high-potential areas, resistance from entrenched vested interests is likely to be fierce; important political efforts should first and foremost be focused here. In this regard, the government's determination to persevere with a strongly-contested reform of road haulage has sent an important signal of its determination to push ahead with reforms in other areas.
32. The liquidity situation in the banking system is tight but manageable. The ECB's Security Market Purchase Program has contributed importantly to safeguarding the banking system's liquidity by stabilizing prices for government bonds. Continuation of this program would be desirable as long as malfunctioning of the sovereign bond market persists. On the assumption that this program remains in place, and that the government's guaranteeing of E25 billion of bank bonds will significantly increase repo-eligible collateral, staff believes that banks will have sufficient liquidity in the coming months.
33. Stress on banking system capital also remains manageable. The CEBS stress test confirmed that the Greek banking system is relatively well-capitalized. With the FSF now in place, the authorities have the back-stop required to deal with capital shortfalls that might emerge as the recession takes its toll on banks' balance sheets. In this regard, staff believes that the E10 billion allocated by the authorities for the financing of the FSF remains adequate. As to state banks, due diligence is now underway. The formulation of a comprehensive strategy for these banks must be a key objective for the coming months, starting with a plan for ATE Bank -- the single Greek bank which failed the stress test.
34. Overall, the program is off to an impressive start. This is fully in line with the high expectations expressed by the international community when agreeing to the extraordinary financial support package. A disappointment so far has been that, at this defining moment for Greece, the economic reforms have not had broader support from other political parties. While most of the difficult reforms still lie ahead, developments during this early phase of the program augur well for the government's determination to press ahead. Staff fully supports the conclusion of the review.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
***
Per chi è particolarmente interessato ...
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following is the text of the International Monetary Fund staff appraisal of the Greek loan program released Tuesday as part of a large package of documents that accompanied the first review of the three-year standby loan agreement which was approved Friday, authorizing release of the second tranche worth E2.57 billion:
STAFF APPRAISAL
26. Staff's overall assessment is that the program has made a strong start. The end-June quantitative performance criteria have been met, led by forceful implementation of the fiscal program, and major reforms are ahead of schedule. However, important challenges and risks remain.
27. The ambitious fiscal consolidation program remains on track, but pressure points are evident. The vigorous implementation of the fiscal program -- not least the determination to under-spend at the state level in order to offset shortfalls at sub-national level -- is much welcome. Staff projections suggest that continued under-execution of discretionary state budget spending, by E4 billion at year-end, is necessary to ensure that the end-December targets are met. Staff shares the authorities' assessment that this is possible, and that additional fiscal measures are not warranted at this juncture. However, such under-execution can only be a stop-gap measure until more fundamental fiscal reforms -- improved expenditure control and tax administration -- take hold.
28. The program's credibility hinges critically on improving tax compliance. The government appears determined, but is likely to be fiercely tested by an entrenched and pervasive culture of tax evasion and opposition from within the tax service. Progress is bound to be gradual, but a determined pursuit of tax evaders through the presumptive tax mechanism and through the work of the task forces pursuing high-income individuals is essential. Without improved compliance, restoring fiscal sustainability will likely require additional hikes in tax rates and painful expenditure cuts in the coming years. With concerns about the fairness of the distribution of the burden of adjustment already evident, this would greatly risk the broad social and political support that is essential to the success of the program.
29. Improving expenditure controls at sub-national levels of government is another important challenge. The problems here are not unexpected considering institutional weaknesses and the extensive past recourse to guaranteeing borrowing by state enterprises. The sweeping reform of local governments now in place is likely to entail significant savings. But while a new ("golden") rule limiting municipalities' capital expenditure is sound, it could still allow a rise in total expenditure inconsistent with overall general government targets. The government should seek agreement with the new municipal governments to ensure that this does not happen. The strengthening of financial control and procurement in the health sector is also important. This sector is a main source of spending pressures, and efforts to improve its financial discipline must continue. As to state enterprises -- for instance, the railways -- a planned transfer of debt to the budget and a requirement that subsidies be included in the state budget will -- by improving transparency -- facilitate informed decisions about public spending. This must, however, be accompanied by reforms to ensure that these enterprises become financially sound.
30. Restoring competitiveness and boosting growth are critical to the program's success. Competitiveness risks are highlighted by the jump in domestic inflation and tardy adjustment in the external current account. Looking forward, the focus therefore now naturally begins to shift from the immediate challenge of regaining fiscal control to the many areas of the real economy requiring deep reform. The adoption of far-reaching pension and labor market reforms ahead of schedule augurs well for the government's determination to undertake difficult reforms. Indeed, the pension reform might be among the most ambitious undertaken by any country in one step. Substantive labor market reform is also underway. This has clearly impressed, in Greece and abroad.
31. Looking forward, priority in structural reforms should be given to those that could start an early recovery in growth, competitiveness, and employment. This points to liberalization of closed professions, deregulation, and the reduction in barriers to development of the tourism and retail sectors, where the growth potential appears to be particularly large. Consideration should also be given to strengthening the privatization program, which right now has a somewhat timid role in the governments overall strategy. In some of these high-potential areas, resistance from entrenched vested interests is likely to be fierce; important political efforts should first and foremost be focused here. In this regard, the government's determination to persevere with a strongly-contested reform of road haulage has sent an important signal of its determination to push ahead with reforms in other areas.
32. The liquidity situation in the banking system is tight but manageable. The ECB's Security Market Purchase Program has contributed importantly to safeguarding the banking system's liquidity by stabilizing prices for government bonds. Continuation of this program would be desirable as long as malfunctioning of the sovereign bond market persists. On the assumption that this program remains in place, and that the government's guaranteeing of E25 billion of bank bonds will significantly increase repo-eligible collateral, staff believes that banks will have sufficient liquidity in the coming months.
33. Stress on banking system capital also remains manageable. The CEBS stress test confirmed that the Greek banking system is relatively well-capitalized. With the FSF now in place, the authorities have the back-stop required to deal with capital shortfalls that might emerge as the recession takes its toll on banks' balance sheets. In this regard, staff believes that the E10 billion allocated by the authorities for the financing of the FSF remains adequate. As to state banks, due diligence is now underway. The formulation of a comprehensive strategy for these banks must be a key objective for the coming months, starting with a plan for ATE Bank -- the single Greek bank which failed the stress test.
34. Overall, the program is off to an impressive start. This is fully in line with the high expectations expressed by the international community when agreeing to the extraordinary financial support package. A disappointment so far has been that, at this defining moment for Greece, the economic reforms have not had broader support from other political parties. While most of the difficult reforms still lie ahead, developments during this early phase of the program augur well for the government's determination to press ahead. Staff fully supports the conclusion of the review.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
***
Per chi è particolarmente interessato ...
tommy271
Forumer storico
MF: Greek Programme Off To A Strong Start, But Risks Remain
Greece’s consolidation program has made a strong start with the end-June quantitative performance criteria having been met, led by forceful implementation of the fiscal program, and major reforms are ahead of schedule, the IMF said in a report released late Tuesday following the disbursement of the second instalment of the massive bailout scheme for the debt chocked country.
“The ambitious fiscal consolidation program remains on track, but pressure points are evident,” the fund warns, stressing that the program’s credibility hinges critically on improving tax compliance.
It notes that the government appears determined, but is likely to be fiercely tested by an entrenched and pervasive culture of tax evasion and opposition from within the tax service.
The IMF also warned about the political risk of the program. "A disappointment so far has been that, at this defining moment for Greece, the economic reforms have not had broader support from other political parties," the IMF said.
“Looking forward, priority in structural reforms should be given to those that could start an early recovery in growth, competitiveness, and employment,” it added.
The fund also said that the liquidity situation in the banking system is tight but manageable and stress on banking system capital also remains manageable.
“Overall, the program is off to an impressive start. This is fully in line with the high expectations expressed by the international community when agreeing to the extraordinary financial support package,” it said.
A disappointment so far has been that, at this defining moment for Greece, the economic reforms have not had broader support from other political parties. While most of the difficult reforms still lie ahead, developments during this early phase of the program augur well for the government’s determination to press ahead. Staff fully supports the conclusion of the review.
(Capital.gr)
***
Riassuntino parziale del post precedente.
Greece’s consolidation program has made a strong start with the end-June quantitative performance criteria having been met, led by forceful implementation of the fiscal program, and major reforms are ahead of schedule, the IMF said in a report released late Tuesday following the disbursement of the second instalment of the massive bailout scheme for the debt chocked country.
“The ambitious fiscal consolidation program remains on track, but pressure points are evident,” the fund warns, stressing that the program’s credibility hinges critically on improving tax compliance.
It notes that the government appears determined, but is likely to be fiercely tested by an entrenched and pervasive culture of tax evasion and opposition from within the tax service.
The IMF also warned about the political risk of the program. "A disappointment so far has been that, at this defining moment for Greece, the economic reforms have not had broader support from other political parties," the IMF said.
“Looking forward, priority in structural reforms should be given to those that could start an early recovery in growth, competitiveness, and employment,” it added.
The fund also said that the liquidity situation in the banking system is tight but manageable and stress on banking system capital also remains manageable.
“Overall, the program is off to an impressive start. This is fully in line with the high expectations expressed by the international community when agreeing to the extraordinary financial support package,” it said.
A disappointment so far has been that, at this defining moment for Greece, the economic reforms have not had broader support from other political parties. While most of the difficult reforms still lie ahead, developments during this early phase of the program augur well for the government’s determination to press ahead. Staff fully supports the conclusion of the review.
(Capital.gr)
***
Riassuntino parziale del post precedente.
- Stato