Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (10 lettori)

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ferdo

Utente Senior
Credo che il "denaro" stia facendo un ragionamento analogo al mio precedente intervento:
http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/operativo-titoli-di-stato-greci-vt37706-1639.html#post1790229
sintetizzabile con "mal comune mezzo gaudio"...se tutti affondano allora in realtà non potrà essere lasciato affondare nessuno.
Ovviamente senza scadere in visioni troppo semplicistiche del tipo "tutti salvi".
E' evidente che ci si dovrà inventare qualche cosa. Speriamo bene....

però i soldi non sono infiniti, finchè c'è da salvarne uno, si fa, ma se poi sono tanti a qualcuno la fanno pagare
 

ale.v

Nuovo forumer
Highest Default Probabilities
Name Mid Spread CPD (%)
Venezuela 1121.04 54.29
Greece 825.21 50.81
Argentina 748.97 40.41
Ireland 498.02 35.25
Pakistan 606.20 34.63
Ukraine 547.26 32.36
Portugal 441.86 32.19
Iraq 455.60 27.92
Dubai/Emirate of 432.53 26.31
Romania 355.11 22.35


Aggiornamento CDS da cma

Highest Default Probabilities

Venezuela 1119.05 54.26
Greece 813.55 50.31
Argentina 750.59 40.44
Pakistan 606.80 34.64
Ireland 479.50 34.19
Portugal 456.59 33.04
Ukraine 547.57 32.36
Iraq 455.40 27.90
Dubai/Emirate of 435.89 26.47
Romania 355.64 22.37
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Borsa Atene: Ase -0,6%; National -2,4%, Piraeus -1,1%


MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'indice Ase di Atene cede lo 0,6% a 1.463,1 punti, in linea ai mercati internazionali, e stenta a risollevarsi dopo l'intensa pressione sulle vendite di ieri.
"Non si fermano i cali di National Bank of Greece a causa dell'aumento di capitale da 2,8 mld euro in corso", commenta un trader.
National cede il 2,4%, Hellenic Telecoms l'1,5%, Piraeus l'1,1%, Coca Cola Hellenic lo 0,7% e Ppc lo 0,7%. In luce Eurobank in rialzo del 2,4%, Opap a +1% e Alpha che guadagna lo 0,9%.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
ECB's Constancio: money mkts not yet normalised-UPDATE 1


Friday October 01, 2010 10:11:10 AM GMT

* Constancio says ECB aims to return to normal operations
* Says money markets not ready yet
* Portugal, Ireland situation not as acute as Greece's was
* Markets 'perhaps' overreacting

(Changes dateline, recasts, adds quotes)

BRUSSELS, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will return to normal liquidity operations only when money markets are back on their feet, ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio said on Wednesday.
Constancio said although there were some positive developments in market activity, trading was still not back to pre-crisis levels.
"Money markets are normalising ... (but) we are not in a situation of full normalisation," Constancio said on the sidelines of the Eurofi Financial Forum in Brussels.
"The objective is to go back to normal operations of course, when we can see that the situation in money markets is normalised."

Banks borrowed 104 billion euros in three-month funds from the ECB on Wednesday, leaving a large gap to the 225 billion euros in long-term loans expiring this week, though they have the chance of topping up for six days on Thursday. [ID:nFAE005811]
Constancio said he expected the impact of this week's operations on liquidity supply to be in line with past precedents, which have seen an overall gradual decline in liquidity levels as six and 12-month lending operations expire.
"Liquidity management has been evolving in the right direction,"he said, declining to comment on specific measures to tackle bank addiction to ECB funds.

Constancio declined to give details on when the ECB will plan its next stage in the exit process from emergency loans.
"We never precommit and we never announce beforehand what we are going to do," he told reporters.

The ECB was monitoring closely widening bond yields spreads for Ireland and Portugal, but he said the situation in these countries was not as bad as it was for Greece in May when the EU and ECB came up with a rescue plan.
"You cannot really compare. Of course there has been this widening of spreads which we are monitoring very closely but I don't think that the situation is as acute as it was (then)," he said.

Markets were "perhaps" overreacting, but there were doubts about structural reforms, Constancio said, stressing the need for tougher rules on debt and deficits.
"The rules must be strengthened to avoid episodes like the sovereign debt situation we are witnessing and so we always support all the new measures."
On growth, he said the current quarter would be positive.

"Overall the indicators for the third quarter show that we will have positive growth, not as positive as the second quarter but the projections that have been published are on track to be realised," Constancio said.
He dismissed a comment by Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega that the world is in an "international currency war".
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
EU Wields Fines to Save Euro From Greek-Style Fiscal Mishaps

By James G. Neuger - Sep 29, 2010 12:00 PM GMT+0200 Wed Sep 29 10:00:00 GMT 2010


Euro countries would face financial penalties for overstepping budgetary limits or for running non- competitive economies under proposals to prevent an escalation of the debt crisis.
Users of the 16-nation currency would be fined as much as 0.2 percent of gross domestic product for flouting fiscal targets and as much as 0.1 percent of GDP for failing to keep up with Europe’s strongest economies, under draft legislation unveiled today in Brussels.

Building on existing sanctions that were never imposed, the European Commission proposals in response to the Greece-led debt shock lean toward German Chancellor Angela Merkel in her effort to tighten the fiscal screws on free-spending governments and have already fueled qualms in France.
As an estimated 80,000 demonstrators converged on Brussels to protest Europe-wide austerity measures, the commission, the European Union’s executive, billed the crackdown on deficit spending as “the most comprehensive reinforcement of economic governance” since the euro’s debut in 1999.

With soaring bond yields in Ireland and Portugal looming as the euro’s next threat, the proposals are meant to fix an economic-management system that failed to prevent Greece from skidding toward default, forcing European governments to offer 860 billion euros ($1.2 trillion) in loans and pledges in May to keep the currency union intact.
The euro has rallied after reaching a four-year low of $1.1876 on June 7. It traded at $1.3601 at 11:45 a.m. Brussels time. The euro is 17 percent overvalued, according to a Bloomberg index of the relative buying power of world currencies.

New System

The new system toughens and speeds up a series of fines on governments that head over the euro deficit limit of 3 percent of GDP and debt limit of 60 percent.
Penalties starting with interest-bearing deposits could be imposed before a country bursts over the limit, with the money confiscated if it balks at repeated EU demands to fix the budget. For Greece, which snuck into the euro region without ever meeting the deficit standard and obtained 110 billion euros of the rescue funds, the fine would go as high as 475 million euros.
Countries over the debt limit would be ordered to hit an annual reduction target equal to 1/20th of the excess. A country with debt at 100 percent, for example, would need to cut it by 2 percentage points each year.

Budget Practices

Alessandro Leipold, a former International Monetary Fund official, said the emphasis on Brussels-driven sanctions is misguided and urged the EU to do more to embed sound budget practices at the national level.
“If the most severe crisis since the Great Depression and a euro country having to turn the IMF doesn’t focus the minds for something a bit more ambitious, then one has to wonder what will,” said Leipold, who advises the Brussels-based Lisbon Council think tank.
The six-law package requires approval by European governments and the European Parliament. The commission hopes it will take effect by mid-2011, with the first sanctions possible in 2012.
France is among three or four countries that oppose plans for the commission to lay down the sanctions automatically unless a blocked by a “qualified majority” in which bigger countries have more votes, an EU official told reporters yesterday.

Tougher Rules

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde on Sept. 27 urged a simpler one-country, one-vote system that would lessen the influence of Germany, the country pushing hardest for tougher rules.
France put out its 2011 budget outline today, pledging to shrink the deficit to 6 percent of GDP from an estimated 7.7 percent this year, the fifth-highest in the euro region.
Germany played down the conflict over the voting system. In an interview in Berlin yesterday, Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter said that “sometimes Germany and France start from different starting points but we in the end are on common ground.”

Beyond the stiffening of existing rules, the EU’s main innovation is to extend the threat of sanctions to countries prone to “excessive” macroeconomic imbalances such as outsized current account deficits, rapid wage growth or runaway property prices.
Those penalties would be imposed “asymmetrically” on underperforming economies such as Portugal or Greece, while exempting Germany, with its trade surpluses, a senior commission official said yesterday.

Labor Costs

While the commission would base its verdict on indicators such as current account, unit labor costs, public and private debt and estimates of real exchange rates, it said there is no “mechanical way” to judge competitiveness.
Sony Kapoor, managing director of Re-Define, an economic think tank, said the competitiveness standards will be impossible to enforce because governments have limited power over the behavior of millions of producers, consumers and investors.
“The approach assumes levels of government control over economic outcomes that probably did not even exist in the Soviet Union, let alone modern market economies,” Kapoor said. “The policy space available to governments in the euro zone to influence economic outcomes is especially limited.”
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Aggiornamento CDS da cma

Highest Default Probabilities

Venezuela 1119.05 54.26
Greece 813.55 50.31
Argentina 750.59 40.44
Pakistan 606.80 34.64
Ireland 479.50 34.19
Portugal 456.59 33.04
Ukraine 547.57 32.36
Iraq 455.40 27.90
Dubai/Emirate of 435.89 26.47
Romania 355.64 22.37

Grazie Ale.
Nel frattempo Spread/Bund a 872 pb. sempre in buona tenuta, rispetto ai venti che soffiano ...
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Germany Seeks `Stability Culture' From Partners in Return for Euro Support

By Brian Parkin, Rainer Buergin and Phillip Encz - Sep 29, 2010 11:54 AM GMT+0200 Wed Sep 29 09:54:51 GMT 2010


Germany’s future commitment to backstopping the euro depends on European Union support for measures to allow the insolvency of debt-laden states, Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter said.
“The Federal Republic has made it unmistakably clear that while it is ready to assume great responsibility for the stability of the euro, it expects that our partners show support for a new stability culture in return,” Kampeter said in an interview in Berlin yesterday.

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is stepping up its calls for changes to EU treaties to penalize countries that fail to cut their deficits. Those demands build on tougher sanctions on excessive debt due to be announced in Brussels today, after skeptics such as France were won over. Merkel has said tackling debt “at its roots” is necessary to stem the crisis emanating from Greece that drove the euro to a four-year low in June.

The “stress for our currency” isn’t over, and steps taken to stabilize the euro, including a 440 billion-euro ($600 billion) European Financial Stability Facility, about 25 percent of which was put up by Germany, only managed to calm markets for a while, Kampeter said. Without treaty changes, “we’ll have far bigger problems in the next phase of euro destabilization.”

Germany’s hardened stance on the management of the euro- region’s $12 trillion economy comes as bond-yield premiums for countries such as Ireland and Portugal surpass levels reached in May, when EU leaders unveiled their $1 trillion rescue package with the International Monetary Fund to blunt the European debt crisis.


‘Apolitical’ Sanctions


EU finance ministers are due to hold an informal meeting in Brussels tomorrow to discuss sanctions, following a meeting two days ago of a group charged with strengthening fiscal discipline headed by EU President Herman Van Rompuy.

Merkel’s government wants “faster and apolitical sanction mechanisms” as well as an orderly state-insolvency procedure, or what it terms “a crisis-resolution mechanism,” Kampeter said. “Stabilization is only sustainable if we succeed in the Van Rompuy group to achieve the necessary adjustments of the EU’s primary and secondary legislation.”

Even so, it’s still “tough” for Germany to win support in the Van Rompuy group, Kampeter said.
“The reactions to Germany’s proposals have been honest, they reflect the differing interests of the individual national governments,” Kampeter said “But all those involved realize that they have to do more together in political and economic terms for the long-term stability of the euro zone.”

(Bloomberg)
 
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