Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (9 lettori)

[Grisù]

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Grisù, non ci rimane altro che stare a vedere: i punti critici ormai li conosciamo ... sappiamo dove andare a parare.

Quelli interni all'economia greca sono conosciuti, sto cercando solo di stimare gli eventuali impatti di una crisi più ampia dell'area euro .

Non escluderei un accanimento delle agenzie di rating sull'Irlanda nei prossimi mesi, per questa ragione sono particolarmente cauto nel fare previsioni poichè abbiamo visto che la caduta dei titoli può anche essere generata da cause esterne.

 

[tommy271]

Moody's Sees `Upside' Ratings Risk If Greece Pursues Its Financial Reforms

By Piotr Skolimowski - Oct 5, 2010 10:50 AM GMT+0200 Tue Oct 05 08:50:45 GMT 2010


Greece’s drive to overhaul its public finances has “impressed” Moody’s Investor Service and if it continues the risk to the country’s sovereign rating forecast ,“is to the upside" Anthony Thomas, a London-based senior analyst at the ratings company, said today at a credit conference in Warsaw.

(Bloomberg)


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[tommy271]

Quelli interni all'economia greca sono conosciuti, sto cercando solo di stimare gli eventuali impatti di una crisi più ampia dell'area euro .

Non escluderei un accanimento delle agenzie di rating sull'Irlanda nei prossimi mesi, per questa ragione sono particolarmente cauto nel fare previsioni poichè abbiamo visto che la caduta dei titoli può anche essere generata da cause esterne.

Anch'io seguo un poco l'Irlanda e la sensazione di un accanimento "strategico" sulla falsariga di quello greco, è ben presente.
Temo ripercussioni pesanti, anche perchè non credo sia replicabile un intervento della UE come quello per Atene.

"A naso" la vicenda è ben più scivolosa e irta di ostacoli.
Il salvataggio di una banca rischia di affossare l'intero paese.
C'è qualche "conflitto di interesse" nella vicenda?

 

[tommy271]

PM stresses importance of 'green energy'



Brussels (ANA-MPA/V. Demiris) -- The importance of green energy with respect to jobs and growth, and also Greek-Chinese relations in the context of the EU-China cooperation were pointed out by prime minister George Papandreou on Tuesday in his address to the 8th Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) taking place in Brussels.
Specifically on Greek-Chinese relations, Papandreou told the ASEM summit that a Greek-Chinese Institute on development and shipping will be created.
German chancellor Angela Merkel lauded Papandreou on Greece's progress and the enhancement of Greek-Chinese relations, while positive comments were made about the fact that Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao chose Greece as the first destination of his European tour.
Papandreou further noted the change in Greece's developmental model, which he stressed will be based on green development.

 

[tommy271]

EU: Greece Needs To Boost Exports



The European Commission takes a close look at the Greek export sector in its Quarterly Euro Area report released Tuesday, and suggests it needs to boost its export so as to cut its current account deficit.

Still, it notes this will require protracted efforts to reverse some of the past losses in price competitiveness and to boost non-price competitiveness.

“However, an analysis of firm-level data shows that the Greek export sector presents some structural features that could facilitate this process,” the report says.

In particular, most Greek firms export some of their output. The share of output exported is generally low but firms with an existing export base can contribute more easily and more rapidly to boosting total exports than firms that have never exported. Raising the quantity sold through an established foreign distribution network is indeed less costly than entering new markets.

“Overall, this suggests that future efforts to restore competitiveness could pay off relatively rapidly in terms of boosting Greece’s export performance,” the report notes.

(Capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Analysis: Greek power liberalization will be slow, cautious


12:03pm GMT+0200

By Harry Papachristou


ATHENS | Tue Oct 5, 2010 6:55am EDT

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek state utility PPC will dominate the country's electricity market for at least three years, given the piecemeal way the sector is set to open up under the terms of an EU/IMF bailout.
Athens must disclose by the end of 2010 how it will liberalize its inefficient and carbon-addicted electricity industry, as part of reforms to qualify for a 110-billion euro ($147.4 billion) support and avoid bankruptcy.
But necessary changes, including a hike in electricity prices, will not take full effect before 2013 as the Socialist government is loath to anger PPC's powerful labor unions or put further strain on citizens, who are struggling to cope with draconian wage cuts and tax hikes.

PPC management does not expect to lose more than 10 percent of its retail market share until 2013. "Reforms will be gradual," said Paris Mantzavras, an analyst with HSBC. "Sudden, radical changes aren't politically feasible," he added.
Regulated power prices, which are currently among the lowest in the EU because they do not fully include carbon emission costs, will rise slowly and the hikes will not affect the poor and the middle class, the government has said.
New entrants are unlikely to get the full and immediate access to coal they need to compete head-on with the incumbent anytime soon.
Some reforms might even help PPC shake off competition from independent energy traders such as Austria's Verbund, who have been nibbling at the incumbent's market share by undercutting its overpriced rates for business clients.

COMPLETELY DISTORTED

Greece's 6 billion euro power market is the EU's least competitive. State-controlled PPC has a 97 percent retail market share, owns all the country's power lines and 49 percent of grid operator DESMHE, whose employees are on the PPC payroll.
Regulated power prices and PPC's monopoly over coal, Greece's most abundant source of energy, have allowed the firm to sell cheap but polluting power, stifling competition and leading to under-investment and electricity shortages.
"The market is completely distorted, we can't survive like this," George Peristeris, chairman of PPC rival GEK Terna told Reuters.

Greece's lenders are pushing the country for structural reforms to kickstart its slumping economy to fund its debt without outside help.
Opening up electricity would bring 4 billion euros ($5.12 billion) of investments into the cash-strapped country and prevent its few independent power players from going out of business, the EU said in a report last month. But there are limits to how fast the sector can be deregulated.
The most radical measure suggested by same EU officials, forcing PPC to sell some units to rivals, would most likely attract no bidders at all. Greek energy players are too indebted to buy them and foreign firms are discouraged by the uncertain economic outlook.

"I'm not sure there would be interest from abroad to buy assets in Greece right now," Thomas Baechle, managing director at Verbund's Greek arm APT-Energa Hellas, told Reuters.
A quick licensing round for PPC rivals to build their own coal and hydro power stations within four years is the most practical way forward, according to Peristeris. "That is the easiest way and will also attract the most investment," he said.
Companies like GEK have invested 1.5 billion euros in natural-gas fired plants, on a bet that Greece's debt-fueled economic boom would continue and that electricity consumption would keep growing at about 4 percent a year.

But recession has wrong-footed them. Power use has fallen 6.9 percent in 2009 and is expected to drop further this year and next. Greece's two independent power plants run below capacity. The market will be crowded even further in the next months, when another three will join the grid.

TROUBLE WITH THE INSPECTORS

But even if they are slow in coming, changes could rationalize the power market and increase visibility to investors in the long term.
Greece's toothless energy regulator RAE will get more powers and grid operator DESMHE is set to become fully independent from PPC. Traders also expect a relaxing of rules that will boost hedging deals for power exports to Italy.
"These ideas are generally promising and some of them are necessary," Baechle said. "But the devil is in the details," he added.

Greece cannot be too soft on power liberalization. If the EU and the IMF deems reform inadequate, they could withhold a 15 billion euro aid tranche due early 2011, the biggest Athens stands to get under the 3-year bailout.
With Greece's fiscal progress also up for appraisal by its international lenders at year-end, most analysts believe the country will not be pushed too hard over energy as long as it meets its key deficit targets.
"I don't think the EU and the IMF will be very pushy on electricity reform," said Mantzavras. "In the end, they will find a modus vivendi with the government."


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Per chi è interessato ...

 

[tommy271]

EU may revise up Greek '09 deficit- finmin official

ATHENS | Tue Oct 5, 2010 8:01am EDT


ATHENS Oct 5 (Reuters) - EU statistics agency Eurostat may revise upwards Greece's 2009 budget deficit but this will not significantly impact this year's fiscal gap, a senior official at Greece's finance ministry said on Tuesday.
"Even if there is a significant revision for 2009, the impact on the 2010 deficit will be very small," the official, who did not want to be named, said.
Greece expects to slash this year's budget deficit to 7.8 percent of GDP from 13.8 percent in 2009, based on its draft 2011 budget unveiled on Monday.

 

[tommy271]

IOBE: Greek Economic Sentiment Deteriorates In September



Greek economic sentiment worsened in September on the back of the deteriorating outlook for the construction and retail trade sectors, an Athens based think tank said.

The Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) said in September its economic climate index -- based on business expectations sub-indices covering industry, construction, retail trade, services and consumer confidence – dropped to 66.6.

In August the reading was 67.9 points.

"Business expectations remain at very low levels in the last seven months, with retail trade, construction and consumer confidence on the demand side having taken the biggest hit from the adverse economic circumstances," IOBE said.

(Capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Fmi: per Italia e Grecia forti rischi fiscali da shock crescita

ultimo aggiornamento: 05 ottobre, ore 15:33


Washington, 5 ott. - (Adnkronos) - Italia e Grecia, due paesi ''con un alto livello di debito e ampi stabilizzatori automatici, presentano rischi fiscali piu' alti'' in caso di un eventuale shock alla crescita. Lo afferma il Fondo Monetario Internazionale nel capitolo 'Incertezza economica, rischi sovrani e fragilita' fiscali' del Rapporto sulla stabilita' finanziaria presentato oggi. Analizzando uno scenario di crescita dell'1 per cento minore rispetto a quella ipotizzata per i prossimi 5 anni nel World Economic Outlook, gli esperti del Fondo evidenziano impatti significativi, ma differenti da paese a paese, sul rapporto debito pubblico-Pil.

 

[tommy271]

Barvetii - Greece is poised to return to the financial markets next month.


Analysts at Barvetii the international wealth consultants believe this first bond sale will test investors’ appetites after a recent downgrade by the credit rating agencies, which cut the country’s rating to "junk". The benchmark Greek 10-year bond yield trades at 10%, almost twice as much as Spain’s, and well above the UK’s 3.5%. At these levels, borrowing from capital markets is unaffordable.

Greece has a six month deadline to repay the bonds, with a return rate of 4.65%, which is lower than IMF loans. The controversial bail-out package is worth 110bn euros over three years. However, payments are on condition that Greece slashes public spending and boosts tax revenue.

Greece abandoned plans to sell 12-month bonds, which would probably have been seen as riskier.

“Barvetii” said that because the bonds sold had a very short maturity, the sale was not a good indication of how much faith investors had in Greece’s long-term prospects.

Austerity measures already announced include raising the retirement age, cracking down on tax evasion and ending public sector bonuses.

Barvetii believes Greece does not plan to restructure its debt, as investors seem to expect. A restructuring would mean losses for investors and further undermine confidence in the country. Such a move would also be a blow to German lenders, which have €45bn worth of Greek bonds.


(release-news.com)