UBS: A Eurobank/Alpha Deal Makes Sense
There is pressure from regulators for the banks to consolidate in Greece in order to strengthen further the system ahead of asset quality challenges, UBS says in a report dated October 18th.
“As a result, we believe mergers are a very likely outcome in the next few months. Eurobank/Alpha is the deal that makes the most sense to us, both strategically and from a value-creation perspective,” it says.
A merger could create the largest Greek bank, with €155bn of assets, 2,713 branches and a strong market presence across 10 markets. It would give dominant market share in Greece and improved presence in Romania and Bulgaria, with 13-14% as the resulting market share.
“In our view, any deal would have to be in the form of a merger (paper deal) but effectively Eurobank would be the acquirer as it has a larger balance sheet and, more importantly, its core shareholder, EFG Group, would end up with control (estimated 23% stake). So, if this were to happen, Eurobank might offer a premium for Alpha shares in exchange for control. The deal would be likely to be combined with a rights issue in light of Greece’s woes but could nevertheless provide some excitement/upside,” the firm says.
(Capital.gr)