Una nota di ottimismo, ogni tanto...
In questo commento del WSJ Online...
Fra le info utili, l'indicazione della prima scadenza debitoria "importante" per la Grecia, che viene ad aprile 2009 (rinnovo di 8,2 mld euro in TdS)
- JANUARY 14, 2010, 10:03 A.M. ET
Greek Bond Selloff Looks Overdone
By
RICHARD BARLEY
Greece's government can't have enjoyed Wednesday, its 100th day in power: Credit-default swaps on the country's debt hit a record high and Moody's warned that Greece, along with Portugal, faced a "slow death."
On Thursday, the authorities set out again to reassure investors they have a credible plan to rein in the highest budget deficit in the euro zone. The market may be taking too negative a view: There are mechanisms to avoid a crisis.
Greece's problem remains one of credibility. Its official statistics have proved wildly inaccurate, resulting in a revision last year of the budget deficit to 12.7% of GDP from a forecast by the previous government of 3.7%. Eurostat criticized it again this week for the poor quality of its data, warning that numbers from 2008 and earlier might need to be revised.
Greece failed during the good years to rein in spending. The government is now promising to cut the deficit to 8.7% this year and 5.6% in 2011.
Markets seem willing to shoot first and ask questions later. Five-year Greek credit-default swaps at 3.30 percentage points are closer to those on Iraq, at 4.70 percentage points, than to Ireland, at 1.55 percentage points.
Short-dated bonds may offer opportunities. With the Greek government bond due March 2012 yielding a hefty 4.2%, a buyer able to fund their purchase at 1% would lose money over one year only if the yield rose to more than 7.2%, Société Générale calculates. For that to happen, Greece would have to go into meltdown.
While markets may be pricing that risk in, it seems overdone. Greece showed this week that it has access to short-term funding through T-bills, albeit at a steep price, and it doesn't face a major bond redemption until April, when €8.2 billion ($11.9 billion) in debt falls due. That gives time for Greece to win investors over.
And despite tough rhetoric from the European Central Bank warning that there will be no bailout for Greece, it seems unlikely that the stability of the euro zone will be put at risk. There are behind-the-scenes mechanisms for governments to extend support to each other, and national central banks can buy debt in the secondary market, perhaps providing support.
Investors are right to be skeptical, but Greek bonds are now priced for a near-term disaster that may not emerge. Greece will submit its financial-stability plan to the European Commission Friday and a vote of official confidence could help turn the market tides. Longer-term, however, the government will have to deliver on its promises.
—Richard Barley
