Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[StockExchange]

European Sovereign Debt Crisis Will Worsen Next Year, UBS Says

November 29, 2010, 11:51 AM EST

By Anchalee Worrachate

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The European debt crisis will escalate in 2011 and investors should continue to avoid bonds issued by so-called peripheral countries like Ireland, Greece and Portugal in the near term, according to UBS AG.

The trouble will force the European Union to seek a “permanent solution” by beginning negotiations to amend the “no bailout” clause of the EU treaty and establish a system of cross-guarantees for government debt in the region, the bank said in a report published today.

“We believe the crisis will reach a point at which further policy response will be needed -- and implemented -- to maintain the current structure of European monetary union,” wrote UBS analysts Mike Schumacher, Justin Knight and Chris Lupoli. “Investors should at best avoid the European periphery in the near term.”

Bond investors may consider buying government securities from such countries once European leaders agree on the amendment to the no-bailout clause, the bank said in the report.

“This outcome will likely provide investors with an important strategic opportunity to buy bonds from some peripheral issuers at much wider spreads than current levels,” the analysts wrote. “Investors should then be able to ride what we regard as the ‘end’ phase of the sovereign debt crisis: a multiyear convergence of European sovereign spreads.”

***

Ma questi vengono pagati per dire queste cretinate?
Cioè ci stanno suggerendo di restare alla larga per ora dai TdS di Grecia, Irlanda e Portogallo. Perchè probabilmente ci saranno altre turbolenze e credono che alla fine i politici europei saranno praticamente "ricattabili" e pur di evitare l'abisso si decideranno praticamente a stralciare ogni forma di rivendicazione sugli investitori (almeno sui vecchi bond). Loro le chiamano "no-bailout clauses" . Secondo loro quindi basterebbe aspettare quella che loro chiamano "fase finale" della crisi dei paesi Euro, per poi acquistare questi bond
e godere a piene mani della convergenza degli spread, quando si capirà che alla fine avere un TdG Greco e il Bund è la stessa cosa....
Certo.
Infatti se io non li compro oggi sobbarcandomi il rischio dell'attuale scenario confuso, volendo tentare questa "speculazione", posso sempre comprarli all'indomani dell'eventuale dichiarazione:"Tranquilli, paga Pantalone", immagino che in lettera ci sarà la fila per venderli a prezzi di saldo per far fare l'affare certo a chi entrerà nell' "end phase" come la chiamano loro....
Ma sono cretini o cosa?

 

[tommy271]

I numeri sono spietati, non ci resta che registrarli.
I nostri ellenici, in una giornata veramente pesante, hanno confermato le posizioni.
L'attacco, questa volta, è stato portato veramente al "cuore" dei periferici: la Spagna. Ora siamo veramente sulla prima linea dell'attacco.
Portogallo e Irlanda cedono nonostante le rassicurazioni uscite dai vertici Ecofin e Eurogruppo.
Sullo sfondo si intravede l'Italia: una minaccia in grado di scatenare un'autentica reazione a catena.

Grecia 917 pb. (915)
Irlanda 671 pb. (663)
Portogallo 454 pb. (443)
Spagna 276 pb. (247)
Italia 194 pb. (172)

 

[tommy271]

Cautious optimism over loan deal

Government contains relief at possibility of longer repayment period, fearing targets will be missed



The government attempted yesterday to play down the European Union’s decision to examine the possibility of giving Greece longer to repay the 110 billion euros it is borrowing as part of an emergency loan package, fearing that it could lead to ministers, public servants and the public believing that the country is out of the woods.

Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou said yesterday that the EU’s decision to think about extending the repayment period for Greece’s loans from three years to seven-and-a-half was a “very significant addition that allows more time.” Such a move would bring Greece’s loan package in line with the one agreed upon for Ireland by EU finance ministers on Sunday and would mean Athens repaying the last of its loan installments in 2024.

“We hope that the extension will be in effect from when we get the next loan installment in March, which is 15 billion euros,” Papaconstantinou told journalists.

However, the finance minister was quick to warn that things would not get easier, drawing attention to the fact that even after the EU-IMF memorandum has run its course in 2013, Greece will still have to meet specific fiscal targets.

“It is clear that after the end of the memorandum, the commitments we have to the single currency [euro] will not disappear,” he said. “The country will find itself in the new stricter structure of the EU.”

Government spokesman Giorgos Petalotis echoed Papaconstantinou’s cautious approach. “The all-clear has not sounded,” he said. “We should not fool ourselves.”

The government fears that the news of a possible longer repayment period coming as it embarks on a tough program of cost-cutting and public sector reforms could be enough to derail the process as ministers will take it as a sign that the pressure is off.

There is also concern that the idea of Greece being under less financial pressure to repay its loans could be fodder for unions – such as the Panhellenic Seamen’s Federation (PNO), which is entering its second week of strike action – which will argue that there is no longer the need for austerity measures to be as tough as they have been over the last few months.


(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Seamen ordered to return to work


Sailors who have been on strike for the last week are to be forced back to work after the government issued civil mobilization orders to prevent further disruption to travel and the shipment of goods after the seamen called a new 48-hour strike.

Maritime Affairs Minister Yiannis Diamantidis took the rare step of issuing the order – it is only the third time the measure has been used since 2002 – after the seamen were unable to reach a compromise with shipowners in a labor dispute.

The Panhellenic Seamen’s Federation (PNO) called a new 48-hour strike after failing to find common ground with the Union of Marine Enterprises (EEN). The seamen are demanding a new collective contract for 2011 and job security. PNO announced the strike after Diamantidis had intimated that the government might resort to the rarely used method of enlisting strikers as army conscripts so it can order them back to work.

“All the options for confronting the problem are open,” Diamantidis told Skai TV yesterday morning. He said that it was unacceptable for the country to be “cut in half” by the strike, which has prevented farmers on Crete from being able to transport their produce to markets and has hampered islanders and travelers in their efforts to journey to and from the mainland.

Cretan farmers welcomed the move to force the sailors back to work as they estimate that they have suffered damages of 200 million euros as a result of being unable to ship their fruit and vegetables to the mainland.

Diamantidis had earlier brought PNO and EEN to the negotiating table, suggesting that the strike be suspended for three days so that talks between the two sides could take place. Sources said that EEN was open to the suggestion as long as it could raise several issues of its own with the ministry.


(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Recovery expected in H2 of 2011

European Commission calls for additional measures for 2012 and speeding up of structural reforms

By Costas Karkayiannis - Kathimerini




BRUSSELS – The Greek economy will start recovering in the second half of 2011 but will require additional austerity measures for 2012, while unemployment is expected to soar to 15 percent next year, the European Commission forecast yesterday in its report on the next two years.

The acceleration of structural reform measures and the containment of any salary increases are essential for the country’s financial streamlining, while Brussels believes that the gap in 2010 budget revenues was the main reason behind the prime minister’s decision to take extra austerity measures for 2011.

Greece’s big challenge over the next couple of years will be to return to growth while continuing its effort to reduce its deficit, the Commission estimates in its fall report. The austerity measures will continue to hinder Greek growth into 2011, the year when the country’s gross domestic product is set to decline by 3 percent.

However, the first signs of recovery are set to appear in the second half of next year, while the successful implementation of the memorandum signed by Athens and its creditors will gradually restore market confidence in Greece and improve the general mood in the country.

Next year will be the third and last one when Greece will be in recession, with 2012 set to see growth of 1.1 percent of gross domestic product. For this year, the Commission expects the recession to deepen to 4.25 percent of GDP, up from the most recent forecast by Greece’s creditors of a 4 percent contraction.

Brussels also expects Greece’s deficit to come to 9.6 percent of GDP (or 22.3 billion euros) in 2010 and to 7.4 percent next year, although in order to achieve the target set by the memorandum for the deficit to come in at 6.5 percent in 2012, the Commission believes that the government will need to take further measures that are not included in the memorandum.

Meanwhile, the government announced yesterday an extension until December 28 of the deadline for the settlement of outstanding debts by taxpayers from the years 2000 to 2009.

(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[vegar]

Sullo sfondo si intravede l'Italia: una minaccia in grado di scatenare un'autentica reazione a catena.

Grecia 917 pb. (915)
Irlanda 671 pb. (663)
Portogallo 454 pb. (443)
Spagna 276 pb. (247)
Italia 194 pb. (172)

Per quanto riguarda la giornata di ieri sto leggendo oggi questo articolo:

Economia: false voci fallimento asta Btp fanno scendere borse (MF)
MILANO (MF-DJ)--Altro che le rivelazioni di Wikileaks, a far tremare
l'Italia ci ha pensato la speculazione finanziaria. Tutto per una voce che
si e' rivelata una balla colossale. Ma tant'e', ormai il danno era fatto.
Ieri mattina nelle sale operative e' cominciata a circolare la voce che
l'ammontare in offerta dell'asta di ieri dei Btp a 3 e a 10 anni e dei
Ccteu a 7 anni non sarebbe stato interamente coperto.

In effetti il crollo dei btp mi è sembrato strano ieri

 

[tommy271]

National Bank group profits beat forecasts


The National Bank of Greece group reported better-than-expected third-quarter results yesterday despite the tough financial circumstances.

Greece’s biggest lender saw its three-quarter net earnings come to 259 million euros, compared to a forecast of 244 million by Reuters. The figure showed a 74 percent decline from last year, but this is mostly due to the extraordinary levy on companies that made a profit, as well as the losses from its portfolio of state bonds and high provisions for nonperforming loans.

A crucial factor for the group’s better earnings report was activity abroad, spearheaded by National’s subsidiary in Turkey, Finansbank. Its net profits in the first nine months of the year came to 369 million euros, posting an increase of 4 percent over the same period last year.

In a statement released with the results, National suggested that unlike its operations abroad, the picture in Greece was negative, as the bank was showing losses of 181 million euros in the January-September period, compared to profits of 593 million euros in the same period in 2009.

This is attributed to losses of 338 million euros from the bonds portfolio, while provisions amounted to 725 million euros. Nevertheless, group officials stressed an increase in operating revenues by 3 percent (to 2.1 billion euros) despite the deterioration in financial conditions.

The group’s nonperforming loans came to 7.1 percent of all loans, while their total amount accounts for 8.1 percent. At the group level there were provisions for 991 million euros, of which 343 million concerned the third quarter.

Financial activity may be shrinking in Greece, but National’s loan portfolio expanded by 1.3 billion euros or 3 percent, reaching 50.8 billion euros.

“Despite the particularly negative conjunction in Greece, the NBG group remained profit-making in the first nine months of a very difficult year, maintaining a high capital adequacy while strengthening its financial report with increased provisions,” stated the group’s CEO Apostolos Tamvakakis yesterday. He stressed the successful completion of the group’s share capital increase, “which doubtlessly is a vote of confidence from the broader investment community for the group,” he added.


(Kathimerini.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Per quanto riguarda la giornata di ieri sto leggendo oggi questo articolo:

Economia: false voci fallimento asta Btp fanno scendere borse (MF)
MILANO (MF-DJ)--Altro che le rivelazioni di Wikileaks, a far tremare
l'Italia ci ha pensato la speculazione finanziaria. Tutto per una voce che
si e' rivelata una balla colossale. Ma tant'e', ormai il danno era fatto.
Ieri mattina nelle sale operative e' cominciata a circolare la voce che
l'ammontare in offerta dell'asta di ieri dei Btp a 3 e a 10 anni e dei
Ccteu a 7 anni non sarebbe stato interamente coperto.

In effetti il crollo dei btp mi è sembrato strano ieri

Sarà strano. Ma visto tra l'insieme dei periferici, conseguente.
Ad esempio anche la Francia da 40 pb a 47 pb., il Belgio da 94 pb. a 113 pb.

 

[vegar]

Sarà strano. Ma visto tra l'insieme dei periferici, conseguente.
Ad esempio anche la Francia da 40 pb a 47 pb., il Belgio da 94 pb. a 113 pb.

Credo che sia al contrario: quelli di Francia e Belgio sono conseguenti al calo dei BTP. Se crolla l'Italia va in recessione mezzo mondo

 

[vegar]

Altra forte discesa dei btp oggi