Greece unlikely to restructure debt in first half - Reuters poll
By Jonathan Cable
LONDON | Wed Jan 26, 2011 3:41pm GMT
LONDON (Reuters) -
There is little chance of a Greek debt restructuring in the first half of this year but the embattled country may get an extension for the repayment terms of its bailout loans, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
Debt-laden Greece was the first country to receive an EU-IMF bailout last May, borrowing 110 billion euros to avoid bankruptcy, and has invoked tough austerity measures to slash its debt.
Economists in the poll of over 50 economists, taken this week alongside Reuters' monthly interest rates poll, gave a median chance of a Greek debt restructuring in the first half of this year at just 15 percent.
But the chances of an extension in the repayment terms were much higher, with economists giving it a 45 percent chance. A few economists said it was an absolute certainty while several said there was little or no chance. "Greece so far has done quite a remarkable job when it comes to adjustment of the primary deficit and they are on the right path. There is a strong desire not to default," said David Kohl at Julius Baer.
"We did the calculation 'can they stabilise their debt levels or not?' -- 'yes they can' is quite a sensible assumption," he said.
Greece has repeatedly denied it was planning any debt restructuring and the European Commission has said no talks on such a scenario were going on because its consequences were too dangerous in terms of spill over effects.
But the influential Bruegel think-tank said on Monday that the country's debt burden is so large that Athens will not be able to service it without a restructuring and the sooner that happens, the smaller the loss for investors would be.
The European Commission forecast last November that Greek public debt will rise to 150.2 percent of gross domestic product from 140.2 percent in 2010 and then to 156 percent in 2012.
MAKING WAVES
The possibility of fellow euro zone members being forced to seek a bailout has troubled markets, pushing up the premium that investors demand to hold Portuguese and other peripheral government bonds rather than German debt.
"A Greek debt restructuring any time soon would inject new uncertainty into the peripheral sovereign debt markets and exacerbate rather than soothe the crisis," said Philip Shaw at Investec.
The debut bond from Europe's financial rescue fund attracted robust demand on Tuesday, signalling some confidence that the bloc is getting to grips with the year-long debt crisis.
Portugal recently passed a key market test, selling a benchmark 10-year bond with strong demand from investors, lifting some of the pressure on the country to seek a bailout.
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Dopo Bloomberg è la volta di Reuters ...
Potrebbero però fare un altro sondaggio: da qui a tre anni qual'è la percentuale di default per UK?
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