Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

New chapter for Greek economy




UBS sees country staying in eurozone as Citigroup calls for haircut, Goldman Sachs urges partial forgiveness

A new chapter is opening for the Greek economy as European Union leaders in Brussels look at a more comprehensive plan to put an end to the region’s debt problems, according to investment bank UBS.

In an report dated February 4, the Swiss-based bank said that it doesn’t believe Greece will leave the eurozone, adding that it sees Athens restructuring its debt with a possible haircut on the cards.

The report follows comments from Citigroup economist Willem Buiter, who was cited as saying that Greek debt needs to be reduced by half.

“Financial reasons dictate the immediate need to restructure Greek debt but political reasons have made a delay necessary in order to complete measures that will handle shocks caused to the banking system,” he was cited as saying by the Athens News Agency.

Meanwhile, the German boss of top US investment bank Goldman Sachs called for Greece’s debt to be partially forgiven in order to save the ailing nation from possible bankruptcy.

“An insolvent Greece must not happen. There must therefore be a rescheduling or a restructuring of the Greek debt burden. There is probably no way around it,” bank boss Alexander Dibelius told Germany’s daily Bild.

His comments come as Chancellor Angela Merkel prepared to reveal her much-anticipated paper for eurozone reform to fellow leaders at a lunch in Brussels on Friday.

Rescheduling or restructuring would mean creating new loans for Greece on more generous terms than the present loans, with the aim of restoring Greece’s creditworthiness, though at a cost to European partners such as Germany that would finance the loans.

Dibelius said that even though Greece generated just 2 percent of Europe’s total economic output, it had become a symbol for the euro-debt crisis and therefore could not be allowed to fail.

“We must not forget that Germany has so far profited much more from the euro than the debt crisis has cost it. The benefits are so enormous, Germany is so strong today, that it could almost theoretically afford a restructuring of Greece on its own,” he said.

ekathimerini.com , Friday February 4, 2011 (21:14)

 

[tommy271]

PIMCO says Europe should relieve Greece of debt

Sat Feb 5, 2011 10:47am EST




BERLIN (Reuters) - Europe should relieve Greece of some of its debt burden as its savings program would only stifle economic growth, the head of the world's biggest bond fund was quoted as saying in a German magazine on Saturday.

Pacific Investment Management Company's (Pimco) chief executive, Mohamed El-Erian, told Der Spiegel that Greece's only way out of its debt crisis was for Europe to reduce Greek debt from 140 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to 90 percent.

"Debts should fall under 90 percent of GDP," said El-Erian, who helps oversee more than $1.1 trillion in investments. "The people cannot withstand (the current savings program)."

El-Erian said international investors would only return to Greece once the economy was growing sustainably again. Athens could afford "to take a time-out from the euro" to achieve this, before joining the common currency bloc once again when it was on a more competitive footing, he said.

El-Erian said on Friday he was not yet buying Greek, Irish or Portuguese sovereign debt.

In the magazine interview, El-Erian also warned that the United States' current expansionary fiscal and monetary policies could drive inflation worldwide.

Instead, the U.S. should brace itself for "long-term weak growth, high unemployment and a new configuration of the world economy," he said.

 

[tommy271]

I TITOLI DEI GIORNALI DI SABATO:


The results of the European Council on Friday, a new civil service wage scale and plans to reduce private-sector pay were the main front-page items in Athens' newspapers on Saturday.



ADESMEFTOS TYPOS: "All the changes to the wage scale for civil servants".

AVGHI: "Agreement a bomb in the EU's foundations". (story on European Council decisions)

AVRIANI: "Pensions at 67 for everyone".

DEMOKRATIA: "New 'bomb' for migrants' vote"

ELEFTHEROS: "Annual German 'poll tax' of 7,000 euro for each Greek".

ELEFTHEROS TYPOS: "15 percent haircut to pay in private sector".

ELEFTHEROTYPIA: "What am I paying, what am I paying. The map of the contractors' paradise built by governments". (runs story on no-pay movement and notes that roads cost 12 times more in Greece than Spain, which has a similar geography).

ESTIA: "Where the Merkel proposals lead".

ETHNOS: "Winners and losers from the new wage scale".

IMERISSIA: "A big step for the EU - a deep breath for Greece".

KATHIMERINI: "New support package for Greece - the strict terms set by the EU".

LOGOS: "Clash between [Health Minister Andreas Loverdos] and IKA doctors peaks".

NAFTEMPORIKI: "First European step toward a common economic policy".

NIKI: "You can forget pay cuts in the private sector - GSEE message to three recipients: troika, government and employers".

RIZOSPASTIS: "Cheapening of labourers and business in energy". [on EU Council decisions]

STO KARFI: "Immigration issue a 'volcano'".

TA NEA: "Merkel - This is how I will save you"

VRADYNI: "Toll [no-pay] movement to be made penal offence".

(ana.gr)

 

[tommy271]

Un codice europeo a difesa dell'Euro:

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/noti...uropeo-difesa-euro-081145.shtml?uuid=Aadjhs5C

 

[mago gambamerlo]

Merkel / Urges rescue of €uro.

News Headlines
Probabilmente avete gia' postato art che trattano l' argomento .... comunque anche questo di cnbc non male .

 

[tommy271]

E' partito il riscatto dei Periferici:

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/fina...o-paesi-periferici-081515.shtml?uuid=AaA8m65C

 

[tommy271]

Greece should stick to fiscal discipline-bank chairman



ATHENS | Sun Feb 6, 2011 2:30am EST




ATHENS Feb 6 (Reuters) - Greece should stick to its fiscal tightening plan, as an extension to repay its EU/IMF loans will not be enough for the country to overcome its debt crisis, the chairman of Piraeus Bank said in a newspaper interview on Sunday.
The debt-laden nation agreed last year a 110 billion euro ($150 billion) bailout with the EU and the IMF but concerns over its ability to service its huge debt in the future has prompted the European Union to examine ways to reduce the country's debt burden.
"Preparations for resolving the public debt issue, such as the repayment extension and decreasing the interest rate for the 110 billion euros...is certainly in a positive direction but it will not pull us out of the crisis automatically," Piraeus bank chairman Michael Sallas told To Vima newspaper.
"With a sense of responsibility, we should stick to the policy of cutting spending and restoring budget revenues to create primary surpluses which will overbalance annual debt servicing needs," he said.
Piraeus Bank, Greece's fourth-biggest lender, completed last week an 807 mln euros right issue to boost its capital, after it barely passed a stress test in July.
Hurt like other Greek banks by the country's debt crisis, Piraeus has aiming to reduce counterparty worries, regain access to wholesale funding and reduce dependence on the European Central Bank.
Last year, the bank offered to buy out Greece's stakes in peers ATEbank and Hellenic Postbank but withdrew its bid after the government took too long to decide.
The government has repeatedly called on its lenders to form stronger groups to cope with the effect of the Greek debt crisis.
But Sallas said that institutional weaknesses and current fiscal conditions in Greece did not favour such moves.

 

[tommy271]

Papandreou postpones Mubarak talks

Greek PM was due in Cairo on Sunday

Prime Minister George Papandreou has cancelled his proposed trip to Cairo on Sunday to hold talks with embattled President Hosni Mubarak.

Papandreou said after a meeting of European Union leaders in Brussels on Friday that he had informed his EU colleagues that he would be flying to Egypt.

"I have decided to go to Cairo, probably on Sunday, to carry there the EU's spirit and current debate as well as Greece's thoughts,» Papandreou said

"I have informed my (EU) colleagues, they think this is a positive initiative,» he added. «I want to carry a message to President Mubarak and have talks with him.»

Papandreou said he spoke on the telephone on Friday with Mubarak and other leading Egyptian figures.

However, a statement from the prime minister’s office in Saturday said that Papandreou has postponed his planned visit because of developments in Egypt. No alternate date for the visit has been set.

Papandreou has consulted by phone on Saturday's developments in Egypt with the prime ministers of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

ekathimerini.com , Saturday February 5, 2011 (21:30)

***
Questioni geostrategiche: Papandreou è riuscito a collocare bene l'asse di interesse ellenico, divenendo un punto di baricentro importante nel dialogo con tutte le parti in causa

 

[ferdo]

REPORT NOMURAdel 16 dicembre 2010:
Politicians will ultimately save the euro
Summary
The solution to the euro area’s problems are not clear, but in the same way we argued in
2010 that regulators would favour economic growth over diluting the banking sector, in
2011 we believe politicians will ultimately conclude that saving the euro and bailing out the
periphery (through increasing the European Financial Stability Facility, significantly
increased ECB bond buying or the introduction of pan-European bonds) is less costly than
default or a euro area break-up given the unpredictable “network effects”. This is possible
because aggregate EU15 debt/GDP as well as the fiscal deficit are lower than in the US,
and necessary because European banks are too interconnected to fail, with cross-border
exposures a multiple of shareholders’ equity. The slow speed and uncertain nature of
political response creates high sector volatility and buying opportunities for lower-risk
northern European names. Among southern states, we see Italy as the best placed.
Euro area: good in parts; too interconnected to fail
Aggregate EU15 debt/GDP as well as the fiscal deficit are lower than in the US. The
problem lies with the distribution of debt and discipline within the euro area, which like
the proverbial curate’s egg is good in parts. If the political will is there for the core to
subsidise the periphery, we believe the market should see the euro area as solvent.​

​

The solutions to the euro area’s problems are not clear. Options include a bail-out of the
periphery by the core (either through direct subsidy from the EFSF or monetisation of
debt through ECB purchases) or a managed government default and/or exit from the
euro. Despite opposition from core electorates, we believe that ultimately politicians will
favour a bail-out over a default because the euro area is “too interconnected to fail”.
Domestic banks tend to hold a multiple of their own shareholders’ equity in government
bonds. Any material government default or devaluation tends to bankrupt the banking
system as asset values tumble while liabilities stay unchanged. Limiting the collapse to a
single country is prevented by the high cross-border exposure of European banks. In the
following table, we show European banks’ cross-border assets as a percentage of
tangible shareholders’ equity (based on BIS and OECD data). Much like national bonds,
the exposures sum to a multiple of shareholders’ equity. Bailing out the peripheral euro
area is in the interest of core euro area banks. Even US banks have more than 100% of
their shareholders’ equity invested in Europe. It is no surprise that the US recently
expressed its strong support for the IMF providing more money to the EFSF.​

Peripheral risks: A long-term concern; Italy best positioned

An additional challenge we see in Europe is the weak state of some national banking
systems. Despite the “reassuring” result of the July 2010 stress tests, the Irish banks
needed bailing out before the end of the year (prompting the CEBS to state that it would
rerun the stress tests including with liquidity tests early in 2011). Where banking markets
are under-capitalised with respect to the bad assets still on their balance sheets and debt
markets are unwilling to finance the risk (with even the ECB looking to reduce liquidity),
governments may have to step in to guarantee the bank debt, as in Ireland, which can
add significantly to debt/GDP. This is why the performance of bank stocks has shown
such high correlation with debt markets in 2010.​

​

​

Guaranteeing the bank sector can bankrupt the government, as seen in Ireland

​

Source: Datastream
While we are optimistic that a solution will be found for the peripheral euro area, without
significant haircuts being imposed on the private sector (at least for all but the smallest
states) the form today is unclear. It could include a significant increase in the size of the
EFSF/ESM such that even a country as large as Spain could rely on it for funding for
several years (currently the EFSF would only finance Spanish bond issuance through to
mid-2012, which is far from long enough to stabilise debt/GDP levels). Alternatively, the
ECB could significantly increase its peripheral bond buying, monetising the debt, or
Europe could issue E-bonds, where the joint guarantee should lower financing costs.
Bank system Country of exposure Total
Expre/SHE ​

​

​

​

​

Austria Belgium France Germany Greece Ireland Italy NL Portugal Spain Sweden Switz UK /SHE​

Whatever the solution though, it will involve a subsidy from the core to the periphery of​

the euro area, which will be unpopular with electorates. For this reason, politicians will

act slower than the market wishes in the hope of avoiding the inevitable, creating high
volatility as bond markets force governments into action. With hindsight, we believe
these will prove strong buying opportunities, particularly for northern European banks
where earnings risk is lower, but we acknowledge that at the time calling the turning
point will be difficult with valuation only a limited guide.
We believe the peripheral euro area will be a long-term concern for the market. Even if
the austerity packages are successfully passed and financing costs reduced, it will take
some years before debt/GDP levels are stabilised and many more years to reduce these
to more manageable levels. Periods of stress and relief tend to focus around government
bond auctions. Greece and Ireland have the highest level of short-term debt but already
have support packages in place. Spain has significant refinancing needs in April, while
Italy has a fairly constant level of issuance throughout the year.
​

While banks in the southern European states of Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and

Spain tend to trade together, we would emphasise that it is the smaller states that are
perceived as the highest risk. Spain has comparatively low public sector debt/GDP, but
high private sector debt and a weak banking market make for a large contingent liability.
Italy also has a relatively high amount of public and private sector debt that is
domestically held, which helps the financing. Italy also has a smaller fiscal deficit, a
relatively stronger growth outlook and lower financing costs (spread over bunds this is
currently 1.5% versus 2.4% for Spain, 3.2% for Portugal, 4.9% for Ireland and 8.8% for
Greece). We therefore see Italy as the least risky among southern European states,
although we do not see valuations or the interest rate environment as supportive of
Italian banks.​

​

 

[giub]

Everything Gold: Citigroup (NYSE:C), Goldman (NYSE:GS) on Possible Greek Default Risk


The reason Greece is so important isn't because of the size of the debt in relationship to the overall European economy, but it's important because of its symbolism as to the problem the EU and the euro faces, and continues to be a poster child as to why socialism doesn't work, as it makes promises that cannot be kept or met.

The domino effect that would probably result from a Greek default is what is at issue, and we have seen how quickly other countries in the euro-zone had to be propped up after Greece had to be.

If there is a Greek default, the same would happen, and the EU would, as it is, effectively cease to exist, and the euro would struggle to survive.