EU/ECB/IMF: Greek Program Has Made Further Progress
EU/ECB/IMF said on Thursday that their program to restore Greece’s fiscal sustainability has made further progress toward its objectives.
“While there have been delays in some areas, the underlying fiscal and broader reforms necessary to deliver the program’s medium-term objectives are being put in place”, according to an official statement.
The recession has been close to what was expected. Underlying inflation has remained low in the face of rising commodity prices. Downward movement of unit labor costs should support gains in competitiveness. Encouragingly, exports have performed well recently, while the economy is expected to stabilize late in 2011.
In the fiscal area, against the sharp macro headwinds, the authorities delivered a 6% of GDP fiscal adjustment in 2010, reducing the deficit to about 9.5% of GDP. This is an impressive achievement, but some tensions were evident in budget implementation, in particular shortfalls in revenue collections, and problems with spending control.
“The program has been designed to address these problems, and the work is progressing”, said the EU/ECB/IMF working group.
Concerning financing, the Greek government continues to work toward securing a gradual return to bond markets at affordable interest rates. Strong program implementation, with financial support from the international community, remains key to achieving this, while the government notably scales up its privatization program, and more generally realizes better returns from its extensive portfolio of assets.
As to the financial sector, tight liquidity and rising non-performing loans are putting strains on the banking system and credit is contracting. Encouragingly, private banks have recently enjoyed some success in raising capital. It is essential that the government makes progress in addressing the stability and efficiency of the banks under its control.
Structural reforms are making progress. Legislation covering aspects of the labor market, the liberalization of closed professions, health care reform, licensing, and the competition authority has either been passed, or soon will be.
The government must ensure that reforms are sufficiently ambitious and comprehensive to tackle the deep seated structural challenges facing Greece. The next steps will focus on, among other things, reviving the tourist industry, removing administrative barriers to exports, and strengthening public procurement.
Approval of the conclusion of the third review will allow the disbursement of EUR 15bn (EUR 10.9bn by the euro area Member States, and EUR 4.1bn by the IMF). The mission for the next program review is scheduled for May, 2011.
Earlier Thursday, Greek Finance Minister Giorgos Papakonstantinou said that the Ministry’s main objective remains the reducing of public deficit to 7.4% of GDP in 2011.
According to the 3rd update of the Memorandum of Understanding, which has been released on Thursday, downside risks to achieve this target exist, as deficit could increase to 8.2%.
Recession of 3% and inflation of 2.5% are expected, while it is estimated that current account deficit will decrease by 8%.
The final figures for 2010 will be published by April, however “we believe that 2010 deficit will be at 9.4% as predicted” said Papakonstantinou at a press conference.
The Finance Minister said that will be achieved by, among other things, privatizing state-owned corporations and liberalizing the energy market. Note that the target of EUR50bn privatizations is not included in the Memorandum, because it is a Greek government objective.
Regarding the extension of the debt repayment period, Papakonstantinou said that it would be an important step that could ease the pressure on Greece in the period of 2014-2015, while he ruled out new taxes.
(capital.gr)
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E' sempre più evidente che una partita importante si potrà giocare attorno ai 50 MLD delle "privatizzazioni", oltre a quelle già in calendario.