ECB Nowotny Sees Risk Greece May Not Be Able To Pay Its Debt
VIENNA (MNI) - There is a risk that Greece may ultimately be unable to pay its debts, but the answer won't be known for a few years, European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said in a television interview Sunday.
Nowotny also said that in economic terms it was probably to be recommended that Portugal seek aid from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), but he conceded that the current political situation in Lisbon could make that a complicated proposition.
Asked by Austria's public television station ORF2 whether he thought Greece would pay off its debts on its own, Nowotny replied: "That is a question that will be answered first in three or four years. In the meantime there is the rescue system."
He added that if growth improved in all of Europe, as well as abroad, than Greece would have "a good chance" to pay back its debt.
However, "a certain amount of risk, to be honest, is present," he continued. "The markets see it this way as well because the rates [that Athens must pay on its debt] are appropriately high...We are assuming that Greece will succeed. But of course we know...that there is a risk."
Nowotny, who heads the Austrian National Bank, observed that the domestic political situation in Portugal had "significantly worsened," and that the country "definitely has a competitiveness problem." While the deficit-cutting measures implemented by Lisbon are "impressive," the country must raise about E11.5 billion in the capital markets between now and June, he noted.
"We'll see if that happens at a reasonable ... interest rate."
Asked if he agreed with the E75 billion figure mentioned last week by Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker as the amount Portugal would need in aid, Nowotny said "it is not an unrealistic amount." It is, he said, what would be needed "purely from the statistics." But other factors, including economic developments and bank ratings, must also be taken into account.
However, following the collapse last week of Portugal's minority Socialist government and likely elections to be held sometime in spring, it could be difficult for Portugal to negotiate an aid package, the Austrian central bank chief noted. "Sustainable reforms can only be carried out when there is a stable governmental constellation. That is unfortunately not the case in Portugal," he said.
Nowotny made clear that ECB interest rates will be going up, as has been clearly signaled by the central bank. But he was non-committal about whether the first step would come at its April meeting in ten days' time.
"Central bankers can't commit in advance, but in principle [the ECB is moving] in the direction of [monetary policy] normalization," he said.
"We must as central bankers carefully watch economic developments. That's why there is the famous phrase from Trichet 'we do not pre-commit,'" Nowotny said. "We can't pre-commit. Because as we saw with Japan there can always be new developments. We are analyzing what this, for example, means for the European economy." But he then added: "My personal view is that nothing would change our original goal of moving towards normalization."
(Imarketnews.com)
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Per sapere se la Grecia sarà in grado di ripagare tutti i suoi debiti, è questione di anni.