Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (2 lettori)

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stefanofabb

GAIN/Welcome
Il 15 settembre 2008 quando è fallita la lehman si era avviato il meltdown del sistema finanziario angloamericano. Abbiamo passato 5 mesi d'inferno con le principali banche americane e inglesi vicine al collasso e moltissime corporate in difficoltà nel rollare il debito. Vi ricordate le quotazioni di bond merrill, morgan, rbs, lloyds, hbos, goldman, general eletric (tanto per citare grosse istituzioni) a che prezzi erano?

A fermare il collasso sono intervenuti con forza il governo usa (in una notte ad es. hanno acquisito freddie e fannie raddoppiando il debito pubblico, come se da noi passassimo in un giorno da 1800 mld a 3600 mld) e quello inglese. Sono entrati nel capitale delle banche e sommerso di liquidità il sistema pur di non farlo affondare.

Qualcuno si ricorda ancora che in un week end di ottobre 2008 a Londra si discuteva se bloccare la borsa e le banche?


Quello che voglio dire che la caduta di Lehman oggi può sembrare come uno spavento sistemico ma nulla più. In realtà per fermare le conseguenze di questa caduta è stata usata una massa monetaria paurosa. Senza quegli interventi non so dove saremmo oggi.

Per cui sottostimare oggi la caduta della grecia è molto pericoloso. SOprattutto perchè se ci fosse l'effetto cascata probabilmente non saremmo in grado di fermarlo.

Oggi per assurdo ci troviamo il sistema angloamericano che ha messo al riparo le sue istituzioni con ogni mezzo mentre quello europeo perde tempo tra litigi, ripicche, indecisioni nell'intrvenire con forza sulla questione dei debiti sovrani.

Salvare la grecia, vista l'esiguo peso dei 300 mld (la lehman pesava oltre 500 mld ad es. Goldman dovebbe essere sui 1200-1500 mld) è relativamente facile. Gli si fa rollare il debito con l'esfm e gli si da un percorso almeno decennale per risanare.

Mi sembra che stiamo giocando col fuoco. Se l'Italia dovesse avere problemi nel rifinanziare le scadenze allora che si fa?
buon giorno METHOS.giusta osservazione la tua .in Italia ci sono i problemi, tanto che la europeizzazione la stiamo pagando cara come costo di materie prime ,beni primari e tasse.detto questo perchè non c'è il problema che hanno altri stati!che non abbimo indebitamento privato(famiglie) e il PIL italiano sebbene basso è il 5,2% del totale mondiale nonostante siamo proprietari di prima casa per il 70% della popolazione.guardando le economie secondarie con quel che si dice del bel paese direi che siamo abbastanza virtuosi.:)
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
The German Government Is Designing Plans For A Greek Debt Restructuring

Gregory White | Apr. 16, 2011, 7:30 AM


The German government is designing a plan to restructure Greece's debt against the wishes of the European Central Bank, according to The Financial Times.
While the plan is not finalized, one possible resolution includes the swapping of Greek debt with eurozone backed debt. Presumably, the eurozone debt would have a lower yield, but the likelihood of receiving payment on this asset would be higher. The EFSF, the region's bailout fund, may also be used to buy Greek debt.
The downside of such a plan is the potential impact on Greek and other European banks. That's what worries the ECB, and the Greek government.
The French banking giants of Societe Generale and BNP Paribas were listed as two of the most exposed to Greek debt last year. Greek sovereign debt is likely to remain under pressure, even though the country's government proposed new austerity measures this week.
 
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tommy271

Forumer storico
Germany Floats Greek Restructuring as Papandreou Pushes Cuts



Bloomberg April 16, 2011 04:00 AM
Prod
Saturday, April 16, 2011



(Adds report about possible debt-swap in ninth paragraph.)


April 16 (Bloomberg) -- German officials are putting Greek debt restructuring on the table over declarations by leaders in Athens and policy makers elsewhere in Europe that Greece will make good on its obligations.
German Deputy Foreign Minister Werner Hoyer said yesterday a Greek restructuring "would not be a disaster." The previous day, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was quoted by Die Welt newspaper as saying "further measures may have to be taken" if Greece flunks a June audit.
Chancellor Angela Merkel's deputies are raising what has been a taboo issue for European officials -- a restructuring by a euro member -- to show its unwillingness to contribute to more bailouts, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Joh. Berenberg Gossler & Co. in London, said in a phone interview. Germany is the largest contributor to European Union rescue funds, which have been tapped by Ireland, Greece and Portugal.
"This is part of a gambit in negotiations," Schmieding said. "If Greece doesn't get access to markets, the funds will probably run out sometime in 2012. That, I think, is the German message: Don't count on us to add more money."
The remarks by Hoyer were the most explicit by a European official showing a 110 billion-euro ($159 billion) bailout for Greece may fail to prevent the first default by a euro country. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou yesterday repeated his vow to avoid a restructuring as his government announced 76 billion euros of austerity measures.


'We Are Worried'


Greece has "done a tremendous job in reforming the country," Hoyer, who is minister for European affairs, said in an interview in Berlin. "Whether all this is enough, whether the results will be there soon enough, is a different question. We are looking at the economic developments, the fiscal developments in Greece and we are worried."
Bonds of Europe's most indebted nations fell for a third day, pummelled by a Moody's Investors Service downgrade of Ireland to the lowest investment grade and Hoyer's comments. The yield on 10-year Greek debt jumped 55 basis points to 13.83 percent, widening the spread over German bunds to a record 1,045 basis points.


'No Disaster'


"A haircut or a restructuring of the debt would not be a disaster," said Hoyer, a member of the Free Democratic Party, a junior partner in Merkel's coalition. If Greece's creditors agreed that talks "would be helpful toward a restructuring of the debt, then of course this would be supported by us."
German officials are considering a plan to enable holders of Greek sovereign bonds to swap them for safer securities guaranteed by Euro-member countries, the Financial Times reported today, citing unidentified officials in the chancellery and the Finance Ministry. Another option would be for a trust to buy the bonds and extend their maturity or retire them, the paper said.
Merkel is on the defensive after losing control of a key state in a regional election last month amid public opposition to nuclear power. Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Free Democratic coalition partners trail the opposition Social Democrats and Greens by 38 percent to 50 percent, an FG Wahlen poll for ZDF television showed yesterday. The gap has widened to from 8 points last month as the Greens surged.


Greek Cuts


The questions over Greek finances came as Papandreou stepped up efforts to reduce the budget deficit, outlining 26 billion euros in cuts and 50 billion euros in asset sales.
The Finance Ministry in Athens said the sales will cut debt by 20 percentage points by 2015. The government, with debt of about 300 billion euros, will sell stakes in phone, power and gambling companies and the Athens airport to trim a debt load set to peak at 159 percent of gross domestic product in 2012.
"Greece's problems won't be solved by restructuring its debt but by restructuring the country," Papandreou said. "Even if with the wave of a wand the debt disappeared, Greece in a few years would have debts again without these reforms."
The measures are aimed at meeting a target, agreed with the EU and the IMF as a condition for the bailout, to cut the deficit to less than 3 percent of GDP by 2014 and a self-imposed goal of reducing it to below 1 percent by 2015. The government still aims for a deficit of 7.4 percent this year, even after first-quarter revenue missed the target by 1.4 billion euros.
Backing Greek efforts, European officials have dismissed restructuring as a policy option.


'Fragile' Environment


European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said April 14 that a debt restructuring in the euro region could cause a "chain reaction through the banking sector," calling the environment still "fragile."
European Central Bank Vice President Vitor Constancio said that he doesn't see a threat of a default in Greece or Ireland.
"I don't think any restructuring is really justified. We have to stick with programs that are now in place both for Greece and Ireland and very soon also for Portugal," he said in an interview in New York yesterday. "I hope that after that markets will consider the situation as being more stable."
Steffen Seibert, Merkel's chief spokesman, said April 6 that Germany prefers that Greece pursue austerity measures. "There is no instrument for such a restructuring," he said.
Still, yields on two-year Greek debt at 18.5 percent suggest investors are anticipating they're not going to be repaid in full and on time.
"The issue of Greece is not whether there will be debt restructuring, but when it will be done," Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial crisis, said yesterday at a conference in Almaty, Kazakhstan.















Read more: Germany Floats Greek Restructuring as Papandreou Pushes Cuts
 
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giub

New Membro
Comunque vediamo cosa hanno intenzione di fare ...
Mi sembra che abbiano in mente quello che penso anch'io ...
Nessuno ha la possibilità di postare la news del "Financial Times"?

tu cosa hai in mente? Brady bonds?
Io spero in un default Uruguay style, ma mi sa che sia esageratamente ottimistico...
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Trichet: G-20 Didn't Discuss Greek Debt Restructuring



WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- There was no discussion of a possible restructuring of Greek sovereign debt at Friday's meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of 20 leading developed and emerging economies, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said.
Trichet told a press conference after the meeting that this hadn't been an issue, repeated that "we have a plan" for dealing with Greece's debt problems, and that that plan is still valid.
The governors and ministers had earlier agreed to a wide-ranging examination of global liquidity conditions, as part of their efforts to identify and correct persistent imbalances in the world economy. The G-20 intends to give the International Monetary Fund a greater role in surveillance of this process.
The G-20's initiative potentially opens the door for greater external scrutiny, from the IMF, of the policies of individual central banks, such as the ECB, whose freedom of action is guaranteed in national or regional law.
"Independent central banks are playing a decisive role in providing liquidity," Trichet said. "It is their own responsibility."
Earlier Friday, Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber, also a member of the ECB's governing council, had spoken out against the IMF having any role in steering global liquidity levels.
Trichet was less outspoken, saying only that "global liquidity is a concept which is very, very complex," and that central bank governors would need to work on providing analysis that is "as operationally and conceptually precise as possible."
 

giub

New Membro
.
Nessuno ha la possibilità di postare la news del "Financial Times"?

Germans plan for Greek debt shake-upBy Gerrit Wiesmann in Berlin
Published: April 15 2011 22:58 | Last updated: April 15 2011 22:58

Germany is drawing up plans to restructure Greece’s sovereign debt in the event that Athens’ economic reforms fail to heave the country out of its budget crisis.
Its intentions fly in the face of the European Central Bank, which fears that asset write-downs could trigger a financial crisis at a time when the banking system is still bruised from the last one.
But Berlin reckons it and eurozone partners could avoid such desperate straits if they persuade Athens to offer bondholders a voluntary restructuring with tools used before by the International Monetary Fund.

One idea is to encourage bondholders to swap risky Greek sovereign bonds at about market prices for safer paper guaranteed by the eurozone – akin to “Brady Bonds” issued to South American countries in the 80s.
Alternatively, a eurozone trust – possibly the European financial stability facility – could buy bonds, and extend maturities or retire debt, a system used to help poor states in the IMF’s HICP programme. People briefed about Berlin’s thinking said other options were considered but chancellery and finance ministry officials had spent time analysing these “market friendly” options.
“The government has long since started preparing for a Greek restructuring,” one of them told the Financial Times. “But it’s not pushing Greece into this. It knows that none of these plans will work if the Greeks don’t want them.” The finance ministry said it could not comment.
George Papandreou, the Greek prime minister, announced new spending cuts and asset sales on Friday to get the country’s finances on track. He said a restructuring would not solve Greece’s problems.
Although it would profit from a debt cut, Athens, like the ECB, is wary of the damage even a voluntary scheme might do to domestic banks, which own a lot of its bonds, and to the government’s future access to markets.
But Germany has started making other noises. Werner Hoyer, deputy foreign minister, told Bloomberg News on Friday that a voluntary debt restructuring would “not be a disaster” and that Berlin was ready to back such a plan.
Wolfgang Schäuble, the finance minister, talked this week of the need for “further measures” for Greece. Mr Schäuble said on Friday that it was “misguided” to think he necessarily meant a restructuring.
Mr Hoyer’s comments drove investor fears of writedowns and their consequences. The interest spread between 10-year German sovereign bonds and equivalent Greek government bonds widened to a record 1,000 basis points.
The ministers’ statements suggested that a cross-party consensus was emerging in Angela Merkel’s coalition government of Christian Democrats, which includes Mr Schäuble, and Free Democrats, which counts Mr Hoyer as a member.
People briefed on the issue said it could be tricky to obtain parliamentary approval for any Greek restructuring, which could land Berlin with new financial burdens.


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011.
 
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