Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tommy271
Forumer storico
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tommy271
Forumer storico
Si, il ragionamento è giusto.
Forse però, alcuni analisti pensano che la Grecia azzeri il debito e continui a pagare le cedole ...
qquebec
Super Moderator
Temo ormai che la strada della ristrutturazione del debito non sia più una questione di "se" ma di "quando".
Da "Il Sole 24 Ore"....
Sul mercato dei titoli di stato sono in ulteriore rialzo i rendimenti della Grecia, in un mercato che vede più vicino il rischio di una ristrutturazione del debito di Atene. Il costo per assicurarsi contro il rischio di insolvenza della Grecia (credit default swaps) è aumentato di 19 punti base al record 1.360, secondo i dati Cma. Il rendimento dei titoli greci a dieci anni è salito di 13 punti base al 15,64% e quello del biennale ha fatto un balzo di 35 punti base fino ad un picco del 25,73% per poi assestarsi al 25,54 per cento. In tensione anche i bond del Portogallo con il tasso biennale schizzato di 19 punti base all'11,8% e il decennale di sei punti base al 9,62 per cento.
Da "Il Sole 24 Ore"....
Sul mercato dei titoli di stato sono in ulteriore rialzo i rendimenti della Grecia, in un mercato che vede più vicino il rischio di una ristrutturazione del debito di Atene. Il costo per assicurarsi contro il rischio di insolvenza della Grecia (credit default swaps) è aumentato di 19 punti base al record 1.360, secondo i dati Cma. Il rendimento dei titoli greci a dieci anni è salito di 13 punti base al 15,64% e quello del biennale ha fatto un balzo di 35 punti base fino ad un picco del 25,73% per poi assestarsi al 25,54 per cento. In tensione anche i bond del Portogallo con il tasso biennale schizzato di 19 punti base all'11,8% e il decennale di sei punti base al 9,62 per cento.
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tommy271
Forumer storico
tommy271
Forumer storico
Moody's Puts Greece On Review For Downgrade - Full Text
LONDON (MNI) - Ratings agency Moody's put Greece on review for possible downgrade Monday.
The full text of its statement on Greece appears below:
Moody's Investors Service has today placed Greece's B1 local and foreign currency government bond ratings on review for possible downgrade.
Moody's decision to initiate this review was prompted by:
(1) revisions to fiscal metrics, most notably the significant upward revision of the 2010 general government deficit;
(2) increased uncertainty about the sustainability of Greek sovereign debt in the context of potential delays in the achievement of fiscal consolidation targets; and
(3) concerns about the probability and the implications of a delayed and weaker economic recovery.
Moody's review will focus on the factors that will drive the country's debt dynamics over the next few years.
Moody's says that a multi-notch downgrade is possible if it concludes that there is large risk that Greece's debt metrics are on an unsustainable path. In Moody's view, such conditions would materially increase the risk of debt restructuring over the short to medium term. Under such conditions, euro area policymakers have stated that future loans from the Exchange Stability Mechanism would be extended only if private creditors were to bear some of the losses. If the path of Greek debt-to-GDP were to appear unsustainable, then Greece might itself have an incentive to seek a change in the terms of its debt obligations.
Greece's country ceilings for bonds and bank deposits are unaffected by the review and remain at Aaa (in line with the euro area's rating). At this point of time, however, due in large part to systemic risk within Greece, the highest rated domestic issuer or securitization is rated A3.
RATIONALE FOR REVIEW
The Greek fiscal and economic reform package remains at least as ambitious as it was when Moody's last reviewed the government's rating. Moody's continues to believe that the government will face a very significant challenge in meeting the targets stipulated by this package. Additionally, Moody's notes a series of recent setbacks that prompted it to initiate this review of Greece's ratings.
First, Greece's 2010 general government deficit has come in at 10.5% of GDP, which is significantly higher than the levels estimated by government and international observers earlier this year. This increase in the 2010 budget deficit relative to prior expectations is due to higher-than-expected budget deficits at the local government level and at government-owned hospitals, along with generally disappointing tax and social contribution collections due to the slowing of economic activity.
Second, when combined with ongoing difficulties in tax revenue generation and collection, this larger 2010 deficit outcome raises further questions about the government's ability to achieve the deficit reduction target for 2011.
Third, Moody's is concerned about signs that the potential need for an additional fiscal austerity programme is likely to deepen and prolong the recession and may further undermine domestic political support for the reform programme.
FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE REVIEW
In light of the growing challenges that the Greek government's economic and fiscal adjustment programme faces, current market sentiment as well as sustained commentaries about the likelihood of a debt restructuring, Moody's views Greece's return to financial markets in 2012 as increasingly unlikely. Through discussions with both the Greek government and the Troika, the review will also attempt to ascertain the relevance of the increasingly public discussion -- based in part on comments by unnamed public officials with apparent in-depth knowledge of ongoing discussions -- about different ways for the Greek government to restructure its government debt (most of which would be captured by Moody's default definition). A restructuring could come about either due to a unilateral action on the part of Greece, or through a framework jointly developed by Greece and the Troika, perhaps in the context of the provision of additional official support through the ESM in 2013. The Troika's decision about whether or not to support or require a restructuring may depend, in part, on the likely contagion effect of a Greek restructuring on other European sovereigns, on the capital strength of the ECB, and on Greek banks as well as non-Greek banks with exposures to Greece. Moody's ratings review will therefore partly focus on the costs and benefits of a possible restructuring of Greece's debts, as a supplement to Moody's debt sustainability analysis.
In addition, Moody's intends to closely review the feasibility of the government's privatization plan, since it plays a key role in the government's fiscal strategy for 2011-2015. In Moody's view, a successful execution of the government's privatisation plan is essential if the government is to achieve a sustainable debt position. Moreover, while the money raised through successful execution will have a direct impact on the debt reduction programme, Moody's also believes that the Greek government's approach to implementing this programme is a valuable signal of its ability and willingness to overcome broader political and institutional challenges to the reform process. During the review, Moody's will assess the credibility of the privatisation targets and consider what steps the government plans to take to avoid the privatisation process being materially delayed by these factors. State asset sales realised during the review process could be considered during the review process.
LONDON (MNI) - Ratings agency Moody's put Greece on review for possible downgrade Monday.
The full text of its statement on Greece appears below:
Moody's Investors Service has today placed Greece's B1 local and foreign currency government bond ratings on review for possible downgrade.
Moody's decision to initiate this review was prompted by:
(1) revisions to fiscal metrics, most notably the significant upward revision of the 2010 general government deficit;
(2) increased uncertainty about the sustainability of Greek sovereign debt in the context of potential delays in the achievement of fiscal consolidation targets; and
(3) concerns about the probability and the implications of a delayed and weaker economic recovery.
Moody's review will focus on the factors that will drive the country's debt dynamics over the next few years.
Moody's says that a multi-notch downgrade is possible if it concludes that there is large risk that Greece's debt metrics are on an unsustainable path. In Moody's view, such conditions would materially increase the risk of debt restructuring over the short to medium term. Under such conditions, euro area policymakers have stated that future loans from the Exchange Stability Mechanism would be extended only if private creditors were to bear some of the losses. If the path of Greek debt-to-GDP were to appear unsustainable, then Greece might itself have an incentive to seek a change in the terms of its debt obligations.
Greece's country ceilings for bonds and bank deposits are unaffected by the review and remain at Aaa (in line with the euro area's rating). At this point of time, however, due in large part to systemic risk within Greece, the highest rated domestic issuer or securitization is rated A3.
RATIONALE FOR REVIEW
The Greek fiscal and economic reform package remains at least as ambitious as it was when Moody's last reviewed the government's rating. Moody's continues to believe that the government will face a very significant challenge in meeting the targets stipulated by this package. Additionally, Moody's notes a series of recent setbacks that prompted it to initiate this review of Greece's ratings.
First, Greece's 2010 general government deficit has come in at 10.5% of GDP, which is significantly higher than the levels estimated by government and international observers earlier this year. This increase in the 2010 budget deficit relative to prior expectations is due to higher-than-expected budget deficits at the local government level and at government-owned hospitals, along with generally disappointing tax and social contribution collections due to the slowing of economic activity.
Second, when combined with ongoing difficulties in tax revenue generation and collection, this larger 2010 deficit outcome raises further questions about the government's ability to achieve the deficit reduction target for 2011.
Third, Moody's is concerned about signs that the potential need for an additional fiscal austerity programme is likely to deepen and prolong the recession and may further undermine domestic political support for the reform programme.
FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED IN THE REVIEW
In light of the growing challenges that the Greek government's economic and fiscal adjustment programme faces, current market sentiment as well as sustained commentaries about the likelihood of a debt restructuring, Moody's views Greece's return to financial markets in 2012 as increasingly unlikely. Through discussions with both the Greek government and the Troika, the review will also attempt to ascertain the relevance of the increasingly public discussion -- based in part on comments by unnamed public officials with apparent in-depth knowledge of ongoing discussions -- about different ways for the Greek government to restructure its government debt (most of which would be captured by Moody's default definition). A restructuring could come about either due to a unilateral action on the part of Greece, or through a framework jointly developed by Greece and the Troika, perhaps in the context of the provision of additional official support through the ESM in 2013. The Troika's decision about whether or not to support or require a restructuring may depend, in part, on the likely contagion effect of a Greek restructuring on other European sovereigns, on the capital strength of the ECB, and on Greek banks as well as non-Greek banks with exposures to Greece. Moody's ratings review will therefore partly focus on the costs and benefits of a possible restructuring of Greece's debts, as a supplement to Moody's debt sustainability analysis.
In addition, Moody's intends to closely review the feasibility of the government's privatization plan, since it plays a key role in the government's fiscal strategy for 2011-2015. In Moody's view, a successful execution of the government's privatisation plan is essential if the government is to achieve a sustainable debt position. Moreover, while the money raised through successful execution will have a direct impact on the debt reduction programme, Moody's also believes that the Greek government's approach to implementing this programme is a valuable signal of its ability and willingness to overcome broader political and institutional challenges to the reform process. During the review, Moody's will assess the credibility of the privatisation targets and consider what steps the government plans to take to avoid the privatisation process being materially delayed by these factors. State asset sales realised during the review process could be considered during the review process.
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tommy271
Forumer storico
Grecia, Moody's mette sotto osservazione rating per taglio
lunedì 9 maggio 2011 18:39
NEW YORK, 9 maggio (Reuters) - Moody's messo sotto osservazione il rating sovrano della Grecia, attualmente a B1, per un possibile taglio.
L'agenzia spiega che il rating potrebbe essere tagliato di più gradini qualora la propria analisi rivelasse che il debito greco si trova in una traiettoria insostenibile. Anche perchè - aggiunge Moody's - qualora la dinamica del deficit apparisse non più gestibile - sarebbe lo stesso governo greco ad avere un incentivo a realizzare una qualche forma di ristrutturazione.
Le conclusioni dell'agenzia - si legge in un comunicato - si concentreranno in particolare sui fattori che nei prossimi anni saranno alla basa dell'evoluzione dei parametri di debito del paese.
Sempre più improbabile, nota infine Moody's, che Atene sia in grado di ritornare sul mercato dei capitali nel 2012, come inizialmente previsto.
lunedì 9 maggio 2011 18:39
NEW YORK, 9 maggio (Reuters) - Moody's messo sotto osservazione il rating sovrano della Grecia, attualmente a B1, per un possibile taglio.
L'agenzia spiega che il rating potrebbe essere tagliato di più gradini qualora la propria analisi rivelasse che il debito greco si trova in una traiettoria insostenibile. Anche perchè - aggiunge Moody's - qualora la dinamica del deficit apparisse non più gestibile - sarebbe lo stesso governo greco ad avere un incentivo a realizzare una qualche forma di ristrutturazione.
Le conclusioni dell'agenzia - si legge in un comunicato - si concentreranno in particolare sui fattori che nei prossimi anni saranno alla basa dell'evoluzione dei parametri di debito del paese.
Sempre più improbabile, nota infine Moody's, che Atene sia in grado di ritornare sul mercato dei capitali nel 2012, come inizialmente previsto.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Fitch says still rates Greece at BB+ with negative outlook
By Gerry Davies || May 9, 2011 at 16:54 GMT
Does not comment on market speculation. They’re just sulking now.
By Gerry Davies || May 9, 2011 at 16:54 GMT
Does not comment on market speculation. They’re just sulking now.
Gaudente
Forumer storico
le notizie positive quali sarebbero ?
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