Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (42 lettori)

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tommy271

Forumer storico
IMF: Greek Debt Looks Sustainable At Present



FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Greece looks poised to avoid a restructuring of its debt though the International Monetary Fund remains ready to provide further aid to the country if requested by the government, an IMF official said Thursday.

"At this point, on the basis of our program, we think that Greece should be [headed] in the right direction to a position where its debt is sustainable. Under those circumstances, there΄s no need for any type of restructuring," said Antonio Borges, director of the IMF΄s European Department.

Borges said the IMF doesn΄t expect any kind of sovereign default in Europe at present, though he said he doesn΄t believe in "a miraculous restructuring solution," for Greece as suggested by some European politicians and market participants.

The IMF in June will be able to update its view on the pace of Greek reforms, following an ongoing investigation by the fund, Borges said.

As part of the country΄s reform efforts, the country has undertaken a EUR50 billion privatization program, which Borges said potentially represents only around 20% of total government-owned assets that could be sold off to raise cash.

"Greece is a special case because it is a real outlier, it is a government that has an extraordinary portfolio of assets," he said.

Greece could sell around EUR280 billion alone in real-estate assets, he added, but cautioned that privatization would take time and would be complicated by issues like local politics and labor unions΄ interests.

"We are not saying this is easy to do, we are saying this can be done over time," Borges said.

Separately, Borges said Spain had made excellent progress in restructuring its banking system over the past year, which he said was reflected in the market reaction to the country΄s banking system. Spanish banks΄ overall exposure to Portugal is limited and contagion risk from its Iberian neighbor isn΄t a major concern at present, Borges said.

More broadly, European banks still need to boost capital levels, although systemic risk for the European banking system has fallen over the past year. Plenty of capital is available for banks to boost their balance sheets, Borges said, as evidenced by a slew of recent capital increases by Italian lenders.

Borges said the IMF doesn΄t see inflationary pressures negatively affecting wages in the euro zone and that inflationary expectations are under control, while the strong euro should help curb inflationary pressures in the euro zone, he said. Monetary policy remains accommodative and interest rates are expected to normalize.

It made sense for smaller European countries like Greece to join the euro zone because it gives them broader access to financial markets, the common currency and other benefits. But countries have to adopt the fiscal discipline demanded by the euro zone to be a part of the union, Borges warned.

***
Sempre sulle dichiarazioni di Borges.
 

pluto

$sell = PMC ++
Mi associo agli auguri Tommy: complimentoni per l'utilissimo 3d!

Ho la sensazione però che il grado di ottimismo sulla risoluzione del problema sia direttamente proporzionale alle quote possedute... spero Maratoneta mi smentirà :)
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Apartment Prices Declined By 5% In Q1 2011







Σχετικά αρχεία

Detailed Tables (500 KB)​


According to data collected from credit institutions, nominal apartment prices are estimated to have declined on average by 5.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2011, the Bank of Greece said. According to revised data, the average annual rate of change was -4.6% in 2010 (Q1: -1.8%, Q2: -4.7%, Q3: -5.2% and Q4: -6.9%), compared with -3.7% in 2009.

Apartment prices by age and geographical area

More specifically, the prices of "old" apartments, i.e. over 5 years old, declined by 5.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2011, at a higher rate than “new” apartments (i.e. up to 5 years old) which dropped by 4.2%. This observation is also valid for 2010 as a whole, when the average annual rates of decline in these categories were 4.9% and 4.2% respectively, and even more so for 2009 (“old”: -4.8%, “new”: -2.0%). The stronger decline in the prices of "old" apartments reflects the relatively stronger resilience of newly-built apartments generally available for sale by construction firms.

According to data broken down by geographical area, apartment prices are estimated to have declined year-on-year in the first quarter of 2011 by 5.9% in Athens, 7.5% in Thessaloniki, 4.0% in other cities and 3.3% in other areas of Greece. According to revised data, 2010 prices dropped on average year-on-year by 3.2%, 7.4%, 5.3% and 5.7% in the abovementioned areas. These figures show that in 2010 the prices of apartments registered the strongest decline in Thessaloniki and other areas of Greece, which include secondary residences or holiday homes.

In order to provide a more complete picture of house prices, the Bank of Greece has produced two new tables apart from the table on house prices by geographical area (Athens, Thessaloniki, other cities and other areas), which break down data between “new” (up to 5 years old) and “old” (over 5 years old).

*The detailed tables are attached.

Indices of residential property transactions-appraisals

Residential property transactions-appraisals conducted with MFI intermediation for any reason (renegotiation of existing loans, registration of a mortgage to back non-housing loans, debt transfers from one bank to another, etc.) stood at 12,718 in the first quarter of 2011, compared with 15,354 in the previous quarter. Year-on-year, residential property transactions fell by 47.8% in the first quarter of 2011. The number of appraisals in 2010 reached 74,134 (revised data), following a slight decline by 0.6% year-on-year (2009: 74,586), compared with a 35.7% drop in 2009 (2008: 116,034).

The volume of residential property transactions-appraisals based on total square metres declined by 43.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2011, while for the whole of 2010, based on revised data, this volume declined at an average annual rate of 0.5%, compared with 38.9% in 2009.

Finally, the value of residential property appraisals-transactions conducted with MFI(3) intermediation dropped by 44.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2011. In 2010, the average annual rate of change was -6.6% (revised data), against -40.0% in 2009. During the crisis, the slightly stronger declines in volume and value terms relative to the decline in the number of transactions-appraisals reflect a shift of buyers’ preference towards smaller and more affordable properties.

(capital.gr)
 

asterix967

Nuovo forumer
[Reuters] Greek debt restructuring inevitable -State Street
[STT.N] * Ireland one global slowdown away from default
* EU must "sign check" to tackle sovereign crisis

By Cecilia Valente and Tommy Wilkes
LONDON, May 12 (Reuters) - A Greek debt restructuring is
inevitable and recovery estimates of up to 60 cents a euro are
optimistic, the global head of fixed income at State Street
Global Advisors said on Thursday.
"We might actually think that in some cases the 50 to 60
cent (on the euro trading) price is optimistic... there may be a
greater need for restructuring," Kevin Anderson, who leads a
team running $375 billion in fixed income assets, said.
State Street <STT.N>, the world's third largest
institutional investor, stopped investing in Greek sovereign
debt last June after many sovereign debt indices excluded the
country's debt.
Anderson said Greek sovereign bonds are currently in "limbo"
because they have dropped out of most developed market indices
and do not classify as emerging market debt either.
Greece is waiting to find out if it will get the fifth aid
instalment from a 110 billion euro ($153.7 billion) bailout
offered by the European Union and the International Monetary
Fund last year. [ID:nLDE74B0YY]
Without the next 12 billion euro tranche, Greece would
default. The IMF and EU officials are also considering more
favourable terms to avoid a debt restructuring. [ID:nLDE74B0B5]
State Street is also underweight in the debt of Portugal
and Ireland, while keeping neutral on Spain, which Anderson said
is unlikely to "be tipped over the edge" into default.

LUCK OF THE IRISH?
State Street's Head of Fundamental Equity Chris Johns, who
joined the firm following its purchase of Bank of Ireland's
funds unit in January, said Ireland had a 30 percent chance of
servicing its debt without defaulting. [ID:nLDE69L0MF]
[ID:nLDE73C15Z]
"I would say that we are probably one cyclical slowdown away
from a default. All bets are off in the periphery if over the
next couple of years ... an unexpected shock causes a global
slowdown," Johns said.
And European authorities will fail to resolve the crisis so
long as they try to fix the problem by lending money rather than
giving it to the countries in need, Johns said.
"Ultimately I think the markets are saying this has to end
with a cheque being written. Solvency is about somebody giving
somebody money not somebody lending some money," he said.
($1=.7158 Euro)
(Editing by Sinead Cruise and Alexander Smith)
(([email protected]; +44 (0)20 75423570;
Reuters Messaging:
[email protected]))
Keywords: GREECE STATE STREET/
 

IL MARATONETA

Forumer storico
E se la Grecia mandasse domani un dispaccio riservato ai principali leader europei (Francia, Germania, Gran Bretagna, Italia e Spagna):
Non accetto più ricatti, o autorizzate gli aiuti sulla base di quello che ragionevolmente e socialmente riesco a imporre al mio Paese, o annuncio e metto in atto in pochi giorni un vero default, con il taglio del 70% del nominale:eek:.
Cosa pensate che farebbero ragionevolmente i leader politici europei??
Così, pensateci onestamente e con calma, e poi datevi una risposta!
Ciao, ciao, Giuseppe
vedrei un bel summit di capi di stato ad atene, a supplicare Papandreou di ritornare sui suoi passi.
 

Orwell

Forumer attivo
Mi associo agli auguri Tommy: complimentoni per l'utilissimo 3d!

Ho la sensazione però che il grado di ottimismo sulla risoluzione del problema sia direttamente proporzionale alle quote possedute... spero Maratoneta mi smentirà :)


Una sorta di sindrome di Stoccolma del Bondholder?
E' possibile. Almeno per quanto mi riguarda.
 

EDESMO

GGB: Est!, Est?, Est.....
L'ipotesi positiva è che non succede nulla: la Grecia paga regolarmente cedole e titoli in scadenza.
La troika allunga il periodo di rimborso e implementa il piano per arrivare a 150 MLD.
Atene inizia a ripartire dalla terza metà del trimestre 2011.
hai descritto quello che accadrà !!! :up:

auguri per i 20k ;)
 

pluto

$sell = PMC ++
Una sorta di sindrome di Stoccolma del Bondholder?
E' possibile. Almeno per quanto mi riguarda.

Si, tipo;forse la statistica dovrebbe essere tipo: Quanto sei esposto (nulla, poco, tanto*) e come pensi andrà (i 5 livelli noti) cosi ci si fa un idea..

*non è importante la quantità assoluta ma come uno si "vive" l'esposizione
 

pluto

$sell = PMC ++
Fmi: il rischio contagio si combatte con una maggiore integrazione del sistema finanz

La crisi fiscale in Grecia, Irlanda e Portogallo potrebbe diffondersi ad altre parti della zona euro e dell'Europa dell'Est. Questo è il grido di allarme lanciato dal Fondo Monetario Internazionale nel suo rapporto semestrale sull'economia europea.

L'Fmi ha detto che mentre l'integrazione finanziaria ha contribuito alla formazione di debito delle amministrazioni pubbliche nei tre paesi in crisi, l'ulteriore integrazione sarà la via per aiutare la zona euro affrontare i suoi problemi.



«Risposte politiche forti hanno finora contenuto con successo il debito sovrano e le difficoltà del settore finanziario nella periferia della zona euro, ma resta il rischio di un contagio per l'area dell'euro e per l'Europa emergente».

In particolare, i sistemi bancari deboli restano una minaccia per la salute finanziaria dei governi della zona euro, a cui va aggiunto il timore che le banche hanno in pancia titoli di Stato il cui valore è diminuito. In caso di necessità e di liquidità ci sarebbero problemi.

«Gli effetti perversi tra la stabilità dei bilanci pubbblici e quelli bancari si stanno rivelando difficili da rompere», dice l'Fmi. «E ci sono preoccupazioni che i bilanci del settore finanziario si possano estendere oltre la periferia della zona euro».

Ciò che peoccupa l'Fmi è la massa di debito in scadenza e che deve essere rinnovato. L'Fmi ha detto che le obbligazioni in scadenza nel 2011 saranno pari al 10% della produzione economica combinata di Grecia, Portogallo e Spagna». Troppo.

«Più in generale, le pressioni della crisi nei paesi ad alto deficit hanno costretto i governi ad assumere ulteriori rischi, spostandosi sul breve termine e a contare di più sui private syndication».

Il mercato fino al 2007 è rimasto cieco rispetto a questa situazione di rischio. Ora invece chiede un aumento di premio e fa salire i tassi.
Che fare dunque? La risposta sta in una maggiore integrazione integrazione finanziaria, in «fusioni e equisizioni bancarie cross-border» che aiuterebbe a prevenire le crisi bancarie future. La necessaria riduzione del numero di banche della zona euro sta procedendo troppo lentamente. «Il consolidamento sta avvenendo lentamente e se non del tutto spesso all'interno dei confini nazionali». «In molti casi, la ristrutturazione ha portato alla rifocalizzazione sul mercato interno e le vendite di operazioni con l'estero, riducendo così l'integrazione finanziaria euroea».

La crescita è la risposta ai problemi di questi paesi in crisi e quindi la Bce di Jena-Claude Trichet non dovrebbe aumentare i propri tassi di interesse troppo rapidamente visto che l'Eurozona può prmettersi uan politica monetaria relativamente accomodante.

Fmi: il rischio contagio si combatte con una maggiore integrazione del sistema finanziario - Il Sole 24 ORE
 
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