Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (12 lettori)

[tommy271]

Midterm program to come under scrutiny



PM faces tough week of seeking political consensus for new reforms to clinch crucial funding

As Prime Minister George Papandreou prepares for a critical week during which he must push an unpopular raft of fresh austerity measures through Parliament, sources have told Kathimerini that the Greek state only has enough cash to prevent default until mid-July, making it imperative that Greece convinces its foreign creditors to approve the scheduled release next month of a fifth tranche of emergency funding.
Greece’s eurozone partners, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have said the release of the 12-billion-euro aid package depends on the approval of the government’s midterm fiscal program - a raft of tax hikes, cuts to public sector spending and an ambitious privatization drive.
In comments published in the Ethnos newspaper on Sunday, Papandreou said the program outlined “serious, structural changes” and “guarantees our exit from the crisis.”
He is on Monday to discuss the program with the Cabinet before meeting with his political rivals on Tuesday ahead of the scheduled submission of the draft reforms in Parliament where ruling PASOK has a six-seat majority.
Talks are to continue on Wednesday with envoys from the EU and IMF and it is expected that Papandreou will make a televised statement to the public before the bill goes to Parliament.
It is also likely that Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou will make a statement regarding the privatization program following calls by Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker for the creation of an independent body to oversee the process.
Greece’s creditors are pressing Papandreou to secure political consensus for the reforms to ease their approval and implementation. But this will be tough.
Communist Party leader Aleka Papariga has refused to meet with the premier. Meanwhile, the head of the main conservative opposition New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, reiterated over the weekend his opposition to the draft reforms “as a wrong and deadlocked policy.”






ekathimerini.com , Sunday May 22, 2011 (22:52)

 

[tommy271]

Most Greeks oppose return to drachma



Poll shows that 66 percent believe returning to old currency would bring new woes

The majority Greeks believe that a return to the drachma would only worsen the country’s dire economic situation while nearly a third think it likely that Greece will exit the eurozone, according to a survey carried out by polling firm Public Issue on behalf of Kathimerini.
The survey, which was carried out on a sample of 500 people from across the country earlier this month, showed that 66 percent believed things would get worse for Greece if it gives up the euro and returns to its original currency. Only 16 percent said they thought life would improve with the drachma while 10 percent said they thought nothing would change.
As for the possibility of Greece leaving the eurozone - an eventuality that the country’s international creditors have ruled out but which remains the focus of many speculators - only 28 percent of respondents said they regarded this as a likely scenario.
The survey revealed that most Greeks - though not an extremely large majority - support the euro.
A total of 58 percent said they believed being part of a common European currency was good for Greece.
The percentage has fallen since 2001 when the euro came into circulation in Greece and when 72 percent of Greeks had expressed their support for it, according to the European Union’s statistics service. The rate of Greek support was above the eurozone average of 66 percent.
Over the weekend Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and senior officials of the European Central Bank - one of Greece’s foreign creditors - ruled out debt restructuring once again despite calls last week by Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker for “a soft restructuring” that would be carried out by extending the maturities on Greece’s debt. The ECB fears such a move would destabilize the euro.






ekathimerini.com , Sunday May 22, 2011 (22:56)

 

[tommy271]

Investors have been betting on a default since 2008

By Panagis Galiatsatos


Speculation about a Greek default started long before the markets found out that the country’s budget deficit was in double digits as a percentage of gross domestic product, since official data show that investors had been gambling on it from as early as two years ago.
According to DDTC, the official database of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, the average amount of money staked on a daily basis on Greek credit default swaps (CDS) stood at $450 million from June 2009 to March 2010.
That was long before Athens admitted its deficit was spiraling out of control and discussed the country’s debt with its European Union peers in view of a bailout.
Investors clearly realized at the time that Greece was not shielded at all from the global credit crisis, and was particularly vulnerable to contagion from a recession in the United States, which became certain in early 2008. That was precisely the time when the price of Greek CDS started climbing to 80-90 basis points.
In September 2008 the prestigious CEPS think tank in Brussels spoke for the first time about the possibility of a Greek exit from the eurozone, sending the CDS 200 bps higher. Now, of course, their price has soared to 1,369 bps (on May 9, 2011), doubling within less than six months.






ekathimerini.com , Sunday May 22, 2011 (20:59)

 

[tommy271]

Country’s economic model must forcibly change



Shift will be more painful and abrupt than estimated a few months ago but the alternative is worse

By Dimitris Kontogiannis


The rapid deterioration in economic conditions has made it clear that changing Greece’s economic model will be more painful than previously thought.
The delays in overhauling and downsizing the public sector, which is key to changing the Greek economic model, will entail even greater economic and social costs than envisaged even six months ago if the government does not convince party loyalists in state-controlled corporations to accept privatizations and vested interests everywhere else to accept competition.
Last June, after a press conference by the so-called troika <+dash><+roman> the representatives of the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank <+dash><+roman> we had asked Servaas Deroose, the former representative of the European Commission in the team, why the economic policy program was not front-loaded with structural reforms, such as lifting barriers to entry for “closed professions,” and privatizations so there would be more time for the Greek people to see the benefits.
We do not remember his exact answer but we do remember that the former representative of the European Commission in the team responsible for overseeing the execution of the policy program defended the program, arguing it would be sufficient to put Greece back on the right track if implemented.
To give him and the head of the IMF mission, Poul Thomsen, credit, they had both raised the specter of reform fatigue at this time of the year so they were fully aware of the impact of the economic program, or memorandum.
It is true Greece had to cut its budget deficit in an aggressive way to win back the confidence of international investors and borrow some 60 billion euros to cover the remaining borrowing requirement in 2012-13.
It is also true the government passed a far-reaching law in the summer of 2010, reforming the country’s ailing social security system. The benefits of this reform on the fiscal front will be realized later on.
However, it is now the consensus that the government has fallen short in implementing the rest of the reforms agreed to with the troika since then.
In addition, the mix of spending cuts and tax hikes aimed at closing the 2010 budget gap has proven ineffective in meeting the initial deficit goal but effective in deepening the recession by putting a bigger burden on the private sector than it should, making it harder to push forward with more reforms.
By all accounts, the government insisted on equal burden-sharing between the public sector, in the form of spending cuts, and that which mostly affects the private sector in the form of tax hikes to slash the budget deficit.
It is indicative of the statist mentality which dominates Greek politics and especially the ruling Socialist party’s old guard.
To some extent, missing the fiscal deficit target in 2010, despite the significant reduction achieved, and the delays in the implementation of the structural reforms have a common denominator: The strong opposition of politicians and trade unionists in ruling PASOK.
But time is on nobody’s side as failure to implement the structural reforms and privatizations promptly will bring about harsher economic conditions and social unrest, and costing the politicians and the unionists their privileges.
Premier George Papandreou has to convince them even at this point to accept the sacrifice of their privileges for the common good or collide with them and publicly seek the help of Antonis Samaras, the president of the conservative opposition New Democracy party, as well as the other political leaders to do so.
He should make clear to his party loyalists who exert power over key state-controlled enterprises like the Public Power Corporation that the alternative will be much worse for everybody in terms of social dislocation, including a further rise in unemployment.
It is also important that the Greek people be informed that the country undertook the policy commitment to complete a 50-billion-euro privatization and real estate development program in the informal EU meeting on March 11 in return for extending the bilateral loans and cut the interest rate by 100 basis points.
So it is nothing new when our partners demand we carry out this program.
Moreover, it is necessary if we want to reduce the public debt and grow out of this mess by promoting economic growth, since privatizations lead both to a more efficient allocation of capital and usually bring about more investments.
They should also be informed that divestures of this type under the current unfavorable conditions will not produce the kind of proceeds the country could have hoped for under normal circumstances but this should not stop the privatization process because the cost of default would be much greater for all.
It is unfortunate that one year after the economic policy program was put in place, the Greek people see no light at the end of the tunnel.
Mistakes and delays have cost a lot but they will look very small compared to future ones if the rationalization of the public sector stalls and vested interests succeed in derailing competition in output and input markets.
The change in Greece’s economic model will be more painful and abrupt than estimated a few months ago, but there is no doubt the alternative is much worse.






ekathimerini.com , Sunday May 22, 2011 (23:31)

***
Analisi.

 

[tommy271]

http://translate.googleusercontent....283651&usg=ALkJrhjOT20DnsemHtvf5HoBfxi5ebeu5g​

http://translate.googleusercontent....283651&usg=ALkJrhjOT20DnsemHtvf5HoBfxi5ebeu5g

​

​

Per oggi è in programma la riunione dell'Esecutivo ellenico per verificare l'approvazione del programma a medio termine di adeguamento fiscale.
L'incontro si terrà a partire dalle ore 12.
Domani poi è previsto l'incontro con le altre forze politiche, si cercherà l'appoggio sulla manovra. La Troika spinge per un'approvazione condivisa anche dall'opposizione.
Se tutto andrà bene, in settimana ci potrà essere il via libera alla quinta tranche che sarà pagata a giugno.
Viceversa, si innesteranno nuovi scenari che sarebbe meglio non pensare ...

 

[Brisico]

Parigi, 23 mag - L'euro ha
perso ancora terreno nei confronti del dollaro, sempre
penalizzato dal ritorno di inquietudine che investe la
Grecia, in particolare dopo il nuovo downgrade di Fitch,
determinato dai dubbi sulla sostenibilita' del piano di
ristrutturazione del debito. La divisa comune quota stamani
1,4051 dollari contro 1,4173 di venerdi' in chiusura e 115,05
yen da 115,69. Il cross dollaro/yen e' indicato a 81,86,
contro 81,64 della chiusura di venerdi'.

 

[silverni]

@stefanofabb 22-05-2011, 11:30 #32681
Qualunque investimento finanziario implica rischio di perdita, quello che cambia è solo l'ampiezza dell'oscillazione prevedibile; se investo in bund tedeschi a breve posso guadagnare e perdere poco (salvo catastrofi imprevedibili); se investo in titoli greci posso guadagnare e perdere molto.
In un gioco equo, per definizione perdite e vincite si equivalgono; nei mercati finanziari gli unici sicuri di guadagnare sono chi fa arbitraggio, e chi bara (insider trading, aggiotaggio, ...).
Tieni presente anche che fra i piccoli trader il 95% circa è in perdita.
Saluti

 

[tommy271]

Bond euro, Bund in rialzo, montano timori crisi debito periferie

lunedì 23 maggio 2011 08:40






LONDRA, 23 maggio (Reuters) - I titoli di stato tedeschi
hanno aperto in rialzo sui timori relativi alla crisi del debito
della zona euro che hanno colpito gli asset più rischiosi e
rafforzato la corsa ai titoli rifugio.

Venerdì Fitch ha abbassato il rating della Grecia di ben tre
gradini [ID:nLDE74J1J0] a 'B+', mentre S&P ha abbassato
l'outlook sul rating della Repubblica Italiana da stabile a
negativo a causa del rischio che l'elevato indebitamento
pubblico possa persistere nel tempo.

Ad appesantire ulteriormente il clima di sfiducia che si
riflette nelle azioni delle agenzie, anche la sconfitta dei
socialisti spagnoli, partito al governo, alle elezioni del
week-end.

"Se guardano all'Italia, forse guarderanno anche alla
Francia, per esempio. Non si sa, e fondamentalmente i Bund sono
l'unico mercato in cui stare, mentre i Gilts e i bond svedesi
possono beneficiare dell'essere fuori dall'euro" dice un trader.

 

[tommy271]

Intanto questa mattina gli spread/bund hanno aperto praticamente sulle posizioni di venerdì a 1385 pb.
Monitoriamo il corso della giornata ...

 

[tommy271]

Prime tensioni sullo spread a 1400 pb., le borse partono con il segno meno.