ECB's Weidmann: Debt restructuring could trigger contagion
Published: Wednesday, 25 May 2011 | 11:39 AM ET
FRANKFURT - Extending payback deadlines on Greece's EU/IMF aid could trigger problems in other high debt countries and undermine future support packages, new Bundesbank head and ECB policymaker Jens Weidmann said on Wednesday.
Weidmann, who took over from Axel Weber as head of the Bundesbank at the start of this month, said in an interview with German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that the German central bank was not opposed to the idea of a debt restructuring in principle, but that such a move could have consequences.
"Lengthening debt maturities helps only to a limited degree. There is also the risk that an after-the-fact forced maturity extension would amount to default and have contagion effects on other countries," Weidmann said.
"A soft restructuring could lead to troubles in other euro zone countries' banking systems, when the credibility of other aid programs would be questioned."
Weidmann is currently being squeezed between his former employer the German government, which argues bond holders should swallow losses if a borrowing country does not pay, and the ECB where he is now a policymaker, which remains vehemently opposed to a restructuring.
One of the possible reasons for the ECB's fierce opposition is that it is estimated to have bought around 40-45 billion euros of Greek debt last year under its Securities Markets Program which was openly criticized by Weidmann's predecessor, Weber.
Weidmann warned a Greek restructuring would hit the ECB and trample over the rules of monetary union.
"In principle, the consequences of fiscal policy mistakes may not be pushed to central banks. In the end, this would lead to a monetization of debt."
"The danger of soft restructuring is also that the pressure to economic adjustment of indebted countries decreases. It would be the wrong signal and would further undermine trust in public finances in the euro zone," he added.
POLICY NORMALISATION
Despite the intensifying debt restructuring debate, the ECB is currently expected to raise euro zone interest rates to 1.5 percent in July, having ended almost two years of record low rates by hiking them to 1.25 percent in April.
Weidmann bolstered that view. "I will not prejudge the policy decisions of the ECB Governing Council. I'll just note that the monetary policy stance currently continues to be expansionary," he said.
"In that respect, we have two tasks in front of us: normalization of non-standard measures and normalization of the interest rate."
He pinpointed concerns about the impact of higher energy and commodity prices on inflation.
Raw material prices "show up in consumer price and worry us, because there can be second-round effects. If they come to be, that would be a notable danger to price stability," he said.
"What concerns us are inflation expectations. Long-term expectations ... have increased somewhat. They are still anchored, but we are looking at them carefully."
(Reuters)