Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1 (7 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tommy271
Forumer storico
Vediamo, oggi gli spread sono saliti in concomitanza con la chiusura della Borsa di Atene.
Credo che predomini l'attesa.
Ormai ci siamo ...
A mio modo di vedere, si cercherà una mediazione sulle proposte di Schaeuble. Non mi pare ci sia nulla di "terrificante", se passerà questa linea ... anzi, i prezzi dei nostri bond scontano ben altri scenari.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Cambi: braccio di ferro Berlino-Bce, franco record sull'euro
L'euro scivola a nuovi minimi record sul franco svizzero, e resta debole anche sul dollaro mentre i mercati prendono di mira le divisioni ai vertici europei su come gestire la crisi greca.
La moneta elvetica ha toccato oggi quota 1,20041, nuovo massimo storico contro l'euro, da 1,20960 di venerdì scorso. L'euro viaggia a 1,4375 dollari nell'ultima parte degli scambi europei, poco mosso rispetto alla chiusura di New York della scorsa settimana, quando la divisa unica è scivolata al di sotto degli 1,45 dollari.
Wolfgang Schaeuble, ministro delle Finanze tedesco, e Jean-Claude Trichet, presidente della Banca centrale europea, sono da settimane impegnati in un braccio di ferro sulla necessità - sostenuta da Berlino - che i possessori di titoli di Stato greci debbano contribuire al nuovo salvataggio di Atene attraverso una rinegoziazione del debito. Proprio oggi Trichet ha ribadito che una ristrutturazione del debito greco deve essere "volontaria" e non innescare un default.
Una divisione che pesa anche sui mercati del credito dove si scommette sul contagio: i contratti credit-default swap su Irlanda e Portogallo segnano oggi nuovi record, rispettivamente a 745 e 770 punti base, mentre i 'cds' sulla Grecia balzano anch'essi al massimo storico di 1610 punti, scontando un default. L'onda d'urto arriva a lambire anche l'Italia, a 183 punti base (+9), e il Belgio (+8,5 a 161,5). Mentre, sul fronte dei premi di rendimento decennali rispetto al bund tedesco, è record per il Portogallo e l'Irlanda (rispettivamente a 767 e 838 punti) e i livelli sono elevati per Grecia, Spagna, Italia e Belgio. Proprio l'Italia, domani, dovrà vendere 3,5 miliardi di euro di titoli a cinque anni, mentre anche Spagna e Grecia saranno sul mercato: un appuntamento sul quale peserà - dicono gli analisti - l'aumento dei tassi innescato dallo stallo istituzionale sulla Grecia.
Le prospettive incerte sulla crisi, e l'incapacità dei vertici europei di trovare una soluzione mettendo fine a settimane e settimane di indiscrezioni su un default greco, sta indebolendo l'euro senza rafforzare più di tanto il dollaro, sotto pressione per i timori sulla ripresa americana e le speculazioni su ipotesi di nuove manovre della Fed a sostegno dell'economia. ne beneficia il franco svizzero, vero vincitore di questa fase dei mercati perché percepito come porto sicuro di fronte ai marosi della crisi.
(swissinfo.ch)
L'euro scivola a nuovi minimi record sul franco svizzero, e resta debole anche sul dollaro mentre i mercati prendono di mira le divisioni ai vertici europei su come gestire la crisi greca.
La moneta elvetica ha toccato oggi quota 1,20041, nuovo massimo storico contro l'euro, da 1,20960 di venerdì scorso. L'euro viaggia a 1,4375 dollari nell'ultima parte degli scambi europei, poco mosso rispetto alla chiusura di New York della scorsa settimana, quando la divisa unica è scivolata al di sotto degli 1,45 dollari.
Wolfgang Schaeuble, ministro delle Finanze tedesco, e Jean-Claude Trichet, presidente della Banca centrale europea, sono da settimane impegnati in un braccio di ferro sulla necessità - sostenuta da Berlino - che i possessori di titoli di Stato greci debbano contribuire al nuovo salvataggio di Atene attraverso una rinegoziazione del debito. Proprio oggi Trichet ha ribadito che una ristrutturazione del debito greco deve essere "volontaria" e non innescare un default.
Una divisione che pesa anche sui mercati del credito dove si scommette sul contagio: i contratti credit-default swap su Irlanda e Portogallo segnano oggi nuovi record, rispettivamente a 745 e 770 punti base, mentre i 'cds' sulla Grecia balzano anch'essi al massimo storico di 1610 punti, scontando un default. L'onda d'urto arriva a lambire anche l'Italia, a 183 punti base (+9), e il Belgio (+8,5 a 161,5). Mentre, sul fronte dei premi di rendimento decennali rispetto al bund tedesco, è record per il Portogallo e l'Irlanda (rispettivamente a 767 e 838 punti) e i livelli sono elevati per Grecia, Spagna, Italia e Belgio. Proprio l'Italia, domani, dovrà vendere 3,5 miliardi di euro di titoli a cinque anni, mentre anche Spagna e Grecia saranno sul mercato: un appuntamento sul quale peserà - dicono gli analisti - l'aumento dei tassi innescato dallo stallo istituzionale sulla Grecia.
Le prospettive incerte sulla crisi, e l'incapacità dei vertici europei di trovare una soluzione mettendo fine a settimane e settimane di indiscrezioni su un default greco, sta indebolendo l'euro senza rafforzare più di tanto il dollaro, sotto pressione per i timori sulla ripresa americana e le speculazioni su ipotesi di nuove manovre della Fed a sostegno dell'economia. ne beneficia il franco svizzero, vero vincitore di questa fase dei mercati perché percepito come porto sicuro di fronte ai marosi della crisi.
(swissinfo.ch)
ferdo
Utente Senior
dipende
esempio:
se te li allungano di 7 anni senza cedole e senza garanzie aggiuntive
se te li allungano di 7 anni con cedole intatte: resti nel limbo lo stesso
se te li allungano di 7 anni con cedole intatte e una qualche garanzia
rispetto ai prezzi attuali di mercato
ovviamente tutto su base volontaria
Nobody's
Γένοιο οἷος εἷ
dipende
esempio:
se te li allungano di 7 anni senza cedole e senza garanzie aggiuntive
se te li allungano di 7 anni con cedole intatte: resti nel limbo lo stesso
se te li allungano di 7 anni con cedole intatte e una qualche garanzia
rispetto ai prezzi attuali di mercato
ovviamente tutto su base volontaria
Quindi ragioni come me
manca sempre la D
Pilotato o no sempre D resta.
tommy271
Forumer storico
dipende
esempio:
se te li allungano di 7 anni senza cedole e senza garanzie aggiuntive
se te li allungano di 7 anni con cedole intatte: resti nel limbo lo stesso
se te li allungano di 7 anni con cedole intatte e una qualche garanzia
rispetto ai prezzi attuali di mercato
ovviamente tutto su base volontaria
Grossomodo la discussione è intorno alla proposta Schaeuble che prevede un riscadenziamento di sette anni lasciando inalterato il nominale. Sul "taglio" cedolare la discussione è aperta ma riguarda anche le garanzie che potrebbero derivare dalla cartolarizzazione delle privatizzazioni.
Quindi una mediazione potrebbe essere la terza indicata da te.
Teniamo sempre conto che le proposte sono dirette agli istituzionali, poi il retail sarà libero di aderire o meno.
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
ECB's Nowotny: Greece Reforms To Take Time, Need All-Party Consensus
VIENNA (Dow Jones)-Structural reforms in Greece will take time and need cross- party support, says European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ewald Nowotny in an interview to be published Tuesday in the Austrian daily newspaper Kurier.
"Without an adequately strong will, Greece will not be successful with the reforms. Therefore lenders require a cross-party consensus in Greece," the paper reports Nowotny as saying.
Greece needs to quickly eliminate both its budget and current accounts deficits through savings, higher taxes, and cutbacks on the consumer side, he says. Nowotny adds that the previous Greek package had assumed the Greek economy would recover more quickly and says: "We have learned to be very cautious regarding prospects."
However, "despite all the problems, the reforms so far are impressive," says Nowotny.
The central banker emphasizes that the problem wasn't one of the euro as a currency, but of Greece's inability to finance itself on the market over the middle-term.
The paper quotes Nowotny as saying there is no industry so interwoven as the credit industry and calling most financial innovations unproductive. And while he says much has already been accomplished in terms of finance market reforms, Nowotny says he wishes that the reforms would proceed more rapidly.
Nowotny sees no danger that the U.S. economy might fall into another recession and says a tightening in monetary policy by emerging economies to fight inflationary pressures would be more dangerous for the world economy.
In Germany, the Austrian central banker expects higher investments and wages in the coming year.
Austria should use its current economic growth as an opportunity to consolidate the budget, Nowotny says, adding that the increasing national debt is a dangerous development.
VIENNA (Dow Jones)-Structural reforms in Greece will take time and need cross- party support, says European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ewald Nowotny in an interview to be published Tuesday in the Austrian daily newspaper Kurier.
"Without an adequately strong will, Greece will not be successful with the reforms. Therefore lenders require a cross-party consensus in Greece," the paper reports Nowotny as saying.
Greece needs to quickly eliminate both its budget and current accounts deficits through savings, higher taxes, and cutbacks on the consumer side, he says. Nowotny adds that the previous Greek package had assumed the Greek economy would recover more quickly and says: "We have learned to be very cautious regarding prospects."
However, "despite all the problems, the reforms so far are impressive," says Nowotny.
The central banker emphasizes that the problem wasn't one of the euro as a currency, but of Greece's inability to finance itself on the market over the middle-term.
The paper quotes Nowotny as saying there is no industry so interwoven as the credit industry and calling most financial innovations unproductive. And while he says much has already been accomplished in terms of finance market reforms, Nowotny says he wishes that the reforms would proceed more rapidly.
Nowotny sees no danger that the U.S. economy might fall into another recession and says a tightening in monetary policy by emerging economies to fight inflationary pressures would be more dangerous for the world economy.
In Germany, the Austrian central banker expects higher investments and wages in the coming year.
Austria should use its current economic growth as an opportunity to consolidate the budget, Nowotny says, adding that the increasing national debt is a dangerous development.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Bond market sees high risk of eventual Greek default
Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:51am EDT
* Greece seen struggling to meet deficit, privatisation aims
* CDS markets sees risk of Greek default in 2-3 years
* Bond prices imply expectation of haircut
By Emelia Sithole-Matarise
LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Bond and credit market prices imply a high risk of an eventual Greek default, reflecting investor concerns that budget and privatisation targets are too onerous to meet.
The targets form part of a potential second bailout package for Greece under discussion by European policymakers. Athens failed to meet 2010 reform and privatisation goals set out in a first bailout a year ago.
This failure has cost Greece dear, ensuring it remains shut out of capital markets for the foreseeable future.
The Greek bond yield and credit default swaps curves are still sharply inverted, peaking at the two to three-year maturity, signalling market expectations of a default by 2014, when the proposed second recsue programme would end.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Graphic on euro zone CDS curves r.reuters.com/fez99r
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Most strategists believe Greece will find it tough to achieve the deficit reduction and privatisation goals under new austerity plans needed to secure European Union and International Monetary Fund money as the economy is expected to remain in recession into next year.
The Greek government plans 6.5 billion euros worth of extra austerity steps this year and savings of 22 billion euros for 2012-2015 to cut a debt pile estimated at 150 percent of annual output and rising. [ID:nLDE759159]
"The new fiscal targets are a bit unrealistic because we've seen before it's been difficult for Greece. When they have to collect taxes they have not been very successful in the achievement of this programme," said ING strategist Alessandro Giansanti.
"In the end they will get the package but on the next quarterly review they will be behind in terms of fiscal adjustment because the growth will come up lower than expected because they were too ambitious in terms of tax revenues."
The IMF and the EU have also become impatient with Greece and want stricter conditions for new aid, with the EU demanding wider political consensus and an independent body to oversee privatisation.
"The pressure is rising and Greece is going to have very little flexibility and eventually if they don't execute the plans they are exposed to the risk of not receiving a tranche of loan," said Vincent Chaigneau, head of rates strategy at Societe Generale.
"We need to see results in terms of budget reduction and the market is pretty convinced now that at some point down the line Greece is going to default," he said.
Two-year Greek bond yields GR2YT=TWEB have hit record highs above 27 percent as policymakers argue over a new rescue programme and on signs that making private bondholders bear some of the cost could trigger a technical default.
Five-year credit default swap prices reflect a 74 percent probability of default based on a 41 percent recovery rate, Reuters calculations based on Markit CDS data show.
"Even if they execute the plan there are risks that now it's too late, Greece anyway will have to default," Chaigneau said. "The troika (EU, IMF, ECB) wants to give them a chance and at least see them trying all they can in terms of reducing the deficit...It's a very difficult process."
PRIVATE BONDHOLDERS
While EU and ECB policymakers wrangle over the role of private bondholders in an eventual new rescue deal, the Greek yield curve is close to fully pricing in a debt rescheduling.
The face value of five-year government bonds stands at around 53 cents in the euro, implying holders fear a haircut -- that they will not get all their money back.
Assuming full coupon payments were to be made until the end of the present package and the maturity of the bonds was then extended by five years with a 50 percent haircut, the implied probability of a debt rescheduling is about 90 percent, according to calculations by Citi strategists.
This compares with around 60 percent for Ireland and Portugal, the two other countries on international aid.
"What is evident from this analysis is that a maturity extension or some reduction in coupon and redemption payments is widely anticipated, but that a substantial restructuring of the future debt service burdens is still not fully priced," Citi said in a note.
Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:51am EDT
* Greece seen struggling to meet deficit, privatisation aims
* CDS markets sees risk of Greek default in 2-3 years
* Bond prices imply expectation of haircut
By Emelia Sithole-Matarise
LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Bond and credit market prices imply a high risk of an eventual Greek default, reflecting investor concerns that budget and privatisation targets are too onerous to meet.
The targets form part of a potential second bailout package for Greece under discussion by European policymakers. Athens failed to meet 2010 reform and privatisation goals set out in a first bailout a year ago.
This failure has cost Greece dear, ensuring it remains shut out of capital markets for the foreseeable future.
The Greek bond yield and credit default swaps curves are still sharply inverted, peaking at the two to three-year maturity, signalling market expectations of a default by 2014, when the proposed second recsue programme would end.
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Graphic on euro zone CDS curves r.reuters.com/fez99r
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Most strategists believe Greece will find it tough to achieve the deficit reduction and privatisation goals under new austerity plans needed to secure European Union and International Monetary Fund money as the economy is expected to remain in recession into next year.
The Greek government plans 6.5 billion euros worth of extra austerity steps this year and savings of 22 billion euros for 2012-2015 to cut a debt pile estimated at 150 percent of annual output and rising. [ID:nLDE759159]
"The new fiscal targets are a bit unrealistic because we've seen before it's been difficult for Greece. When they have to collect taxes they have not been very successful in the achievement of this programme," said ING strategist Alessandro Giansanti.
"In the end they will get the package but on the next quarterly review they will be behind in terms of fiscal adjustment because the growth will come up lower than expected because they were too ambitious in terms of tax revenues."
The IMF and the EU have also become impatient with Greece and want stricter conditions for new aid, with the EU demanding wider political consensus and an independent body to oversee privatisation.
"The pressure is rising and Greece is going to have very little flexibility and eventually if they don't execute the plans they are exposed to the risk of not receiving a tranche of loan," said Vincent Chaigneau, head of rates strategy at Societe Generale.
"We need to see results in terms of budget reduction and the market is pretty convinced now that at some point down the line Greece is going to default," he said.
Two-year Greek bond yields GR2YT=TWEB have hit record highs above 27 percent as policymakers argue over a new rescue programme and on signs that making private bondholders bear some of the cost could trigger a technical default.
Five-year credit default swap prices reflect a 74 percent probability of default based on a 41 percent recovery rate, Reuters calculations based on Markit CDS data show.
"Even if they execute the plan there are risks that now it's too late, Greece anyway will have to default," Chaigneau said. "The troika (EU, IMF, ECB) wants to give them a chance and at least see them trying all they can in terms of reducing the deficit...It's a very difficult process."
PRIVATE BONDHOLDERS
While EU and ECB policymakers wrangle over the role of private bondholders in an eventual new rescue deal, the Greek yield curve is close to fully pricing in a debt rescheduling.
The face value of five-year government bonds stands at around 53 cents in the euro, implying holders fear a haircut -- that they will not get all their money back.
Assuming full coupon payments were to be made until the end of the present package and the maturity of the bonds was then extended by five years with a 50 percent haircut, the implied probability of a debt rescheduling is about 90 percent, according to calculations by Citi strategists.
This compares with around 60 percent for Ireland and Portugal, the two other countries on international aid.
"What is evident from this analysis is that a maturity extension or some reduction in coupon and redemption payments is widely anticipated, but that a substantial restructuring of the future debt service burdens is still not fully priced," Citi said in a note.
Zorba
Bos 4 Mod
Temo che Gaudente possa aver ragione (in caso di Default della Grecia), sulla "preferenzialità". Sull'an e quantum, non saprei.
- Stato