Imark
Forumer storico
Il commento al mantenimento della Grecia in creditwatch negativo per S&P, in vista di un possibile dwngrade di 1-2 livelli in capo ad un mese. La Grecia ha sovrestimato la crescita del PIL per il 2010 nei propri progetti, il che rende necessario in prospettiva accrescere le dimensioni del consolidamento fiscale, mentre resta alto per l'agenzia il rischio che la politica non sia in grado di implementare le misure occorrenti nei tempi occorrenti alla realizzazione del proprio piano di riduzione del deficit pubblico.
La tabellina dei rischi in fondo va letta con cura...
Greece 'BBB+/A-2' Sovereign Credit Ratings Maintained On CreditWatch Negative On Political And Economic Challenges
MADRID (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 24, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
said today that it is maintaining its 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term
sovereign credit ratings on the Hellenic Republic (Greece) on CreditWatch with
negative implications.
We initially placed the long-term rating on CreditWatch on Dec. 7, 2009. Then,
on Dec. 16, 2009, we lowered the long-term rating to its current level and
maintained it on CreditWatch. At the same time, we placed the short-term
rating on CreditWatch with negative implications.
"In our view, a further downgrade of one to two notches is possible within a
month," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Marko Mrsnik.
Since our lowering of the long-term rating on Dec. 16, 2009, the Greek
government has presented the 2010 update of its stability program and has also
announced additional measures--including a freeze on public sector wages and
an increase in fuel taxes--to reinforce its budgetary goal to cut its 2010
general government deficit by 4% of GDP vis-a-vis the 2009 level, to 8.7% of
GDP. We view the announcements of additional deficit-reducing measures as a
reasonable step toward reducing the public debt burden, given the divergence
between the country's deteriorating economic growth prospects and what we view
as overly optimistic growth assumptions underlying the 2010 update (actual
results showed a 2% decline in GDP in 2009, versus a 1.2% decline estimated in
the update) and its implications for public finances.
"Greece's large budgetary and external imbalances, combined with a continued
weak external economic environment, suggest, in our opinion, that deflationary
pressures are likely to compound the country's economic travails," said Mr.
Mrsnik. "Consequently, we anticipate further pressures in Greece's banking
sector, which would have residual effects on public finances. We believe it is
likely that this, in turn, will put increased pressure on the government's
fiscal consolidation efforts if it is to comply with its budgetary targets."
In light of recent political, macroeconomic, and financial market
developments, we consider the following elements to be of main relevance to
our assessment of the Greek sovereign's creditworthiness:
La tabellina dei rischi in fondo va letta con cura...
Greece 'BBB+/A-2' Sovereign Credit Ratings Maintained On CreditWatch Negative On Political And Economic Challenges
- Downside risks for Greece's real and nominal growth are likely to
increase the size of needed fiscal consolidation, raising questions about
the feasibility of the country's ambitious budgetary goals. - Political risks for the timely implementation of the entirety of fiscal
reforms continue to be material. - We are maintaining our 'BBB+/A-2' ratings on the Hellenic Republic on
CreditWatch negative. - The negative CreditWatch implications reflect the possibility of a
further downgrade of one to two notches within a month.
MADRID (Standard & Poor's) Feb. 24, 2010--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
said today that it is maintaining its 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term
sovereign credit ratings on the Hellenic Republic (Greece) on CreditWatch with
negative implications.
We initially placed the long-term rating on CreditWatch on Dec. 7, 2009. Then,
on Dec. 16, 2009, we lowered the long-term rating to its current level and
maintained it on CreditWatch. At the same time, we placed the short-term
rating on CreditWatch with negative implications.
"In our view, a further downgrade of one to two notches is possible within a
month," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Marko Mrsnik.
Since our lowering of the long-term rating on Dec. 16, 2009, the Greek
government has presented the 2010 update of its stability program and has also
announced additional measures--including a freeze on public sector wages and
an increase in fuel taxes--to reinforce its budgetary goal to cut its 2010
general government deficit by 4% of GDP vis-a-vis the 2009 level, to 8.7% of
GDP. We view the announcements of additional deficit-reducing measures as a
reasonable step toward reducing the public debt burden, given the divergence
between the country's deteriorating economic growth prospects and what we view
as overly optimistic growth assumptions underlying the 2010 update (actual
results showed a 2% decline in GDP in 2009, versus a 1.2% decline estimated in
the update) and its implications for public finances.
"Greece's large budgetary and external imbalances, combined with a continued
weak external economic environment, suggest, in our opinion, that deflationary
pressures are likely to compound the country's economic travails," said Mr.
Mrsnik. "Consequently, we anticipate further pressures in Greece's banking
sector, which would have residual effects on public finances. We believe it is
likely that this, in turn, will put increased pressure on the government's
fiscal consolidation efforts if it is to comply with its budgetary targets."
In light of recent political, macroeconomic, and financial market
developments, we consider the following elements to be of main relevance to
our assessment of the Greek sovereign's creditworthiness:
- We view the sovereign's willingness to continue to finance itself in the
commercial bond markets according to its current borrowing schedule as an
important feature of its creditworthiness. Should the government reduce
its reliance on the bond market in favor of running down its cash
reserves or extending its accounts payable, we would expect downward
pressure on the ratings to increase. - Our ratings on Greece will continue to depend on the sovereign's
stand-alone credit rating fundamentals and not benefit from an implicit
rating floor in case of extraordinary support organized by the EMU and
its member states. Standard & Poor's may view potential extraordinary EU
assistance as a rating support if and when it is formulated, to the
extent that we can assess whether such support would lead to a sustained
reduction in the government's cost of borrowing and reinforce its
commitment to achieving the set budgetary targets. Nevertheless, we
believe such assistance is likely to be conditional upon the frontloading
of the implementation of the announced measures and is likely to be
disbursed over time. - Greece's banking sector has been facing a more challenging operating
environment, which is likely, in our opinion, to negatively affect asset
quality and put pressure on profitability. This could imply higher
contingent liabilities from the financial sector for the sovereign, which
could exert downward pressure on our sovereign ratings on Greece. - If public support for the government's stability program decreases from
its current level, compromising its execution, we could also lower the
ratings. Despite the currently apparent strong public support for the
Greek government, we believe that implementation risks will persist over
the course of the government's current stability program, particularly
since we envisage that Greece's recession will be more protracted than
that of most other EMU members.
