Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
lorixnt2
Hari Seldon's fan
lorixnt2
Hari Seldon's fan
vi immaginate una domenica mattina in Grecia:
Andiamo in chiesa?
Si.
In "chiesa" una brioches, un capuccino e due rosari grazie
Autogrill Church per unire lo spirito alla "panza"
Eeh beh ma negli anni immediatamente successivi al 68 si fece anche di meglio. Robert Silverberg, ad esempio, aveva scritto un racconto breve
che fu tradotto in italiano con il titolo
"Buone notizie dal Vaticano"
Silverberg immaginava che le funzioni papali potessero essere proficuamente automatizzate ed informatizzate in modo da affidarle ad un computer. Se penso a quelle simpatiche macchinette che usano adesso per il trading può essere che il passo necessario sia ragionevolmente breve.
Questa però apparirà passabilmente blasfema ai più. Kazzeggiare, nuklearizzare, atomizzare as soon as possible
tommy271
Forumer storico
Ieri è stata una giornata di massacro sui "periferici" con pesantissimi allargamenti sul Portogallo e l'Irlanda. Spagna e Italia ritoccano i max storici dall'introduzione dell'Euro. I nostri ellenici allargano, ma contengono le perdite.
Il downgrade che ha ridotto i lusitani a spazzatura, ha colpito in profondità tutto il Club Med alla vigilia di un Eurogruppo che doveva essere dedicato alla Grecia. Avrà ora, sicuramente, un allargamento delle discussioni ad altri paesi.
Oggi la BCE, con ogni probabilità, annuncerà un aumento dei tassi al 1,5% ma forse - nei prossimi mesi - si prenderà una pausa, visto che i paesi europei sono messi maluccio e l'inflazione potrebbe rallentare.
Intanto nessuna reazione di contrasto è arrivata per frenare l'allargamento.
Grecia 1371 pb. (1347)
Portogallo 1013 pb. (805)
Irlanda 972 pb. (883)
Spagna 268 pb. (248)
Italia 220 pb. (202)
Belgio 120 pb. (110)
Il downgrade che ha ridotto i lusitani a spazzatura, ha colpito in profondità tutto il Club Med alla vigilia di un Eurogruppo che doveva essere dedicato alla Grecia. Avrà ora, sicuramente, un allargamento delle discussioni ad altri paesi.
Oggi la BCE, con ogni probabilità, annuncerà un aumento dei tassi al 1,5% ma forse - nei prossimi mesi - si prenderà una pausa, visto che i paesi europei sono messi maluccio e l'inflazione potrebbe rallentare.
Intanto nessuna reazione di contrasto è arrivata per frenare l'allargamento.
Grecia 1371 pb. (1347)
Portogallo 1013 pb. (805)
Irlanda 972 pb. (883)
Spagna 268 pb. (248)
Italia 220 pb. (202)
Belgio 120 pb. (110)
Ultima modifica:
tommy271
Forumer storico
Hedge Funds Move Past Greece With Bets That Sovereign Debt Crisis Expands
By Katherine Burton and Saijel Kishan - Jul 7, 2011 6:00 AM GMT+0200 Thu Jul 07 04:00:07 GMT 2011
Hedge funds that trade bonds and loans are increasing bets that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will spread to Portugal, Spain and Italy, even after Greece won a temporary reprieve with 12 billion euros in aid.
“Nothing you’ve seen so far has dealt with solvency, just liquidity,” said Simon Finch, head of credit trading at CQS UK LLP, a London-based hedge fund that oversees $11 billion.
Finch, who has bought and sold corporate bonds and loans for 18 years, has stepped up trading in mobile-phone, utility and toll-road companies in the three countries. He expects their governments will be forced to slash spending to pay off lenders, slowing growth and reducing discretionary consumer outlays.
CQS is among the hedge funds that say investors are underestimating the odds of distress or even default not only by Portugal, whose credit rating was downgraded this week to junk status by Moody’s, but also by the bigger Italy and Spain. The funds are moving beyond a direct wager that sovereign debt values will tumble, targeting potential fallout in the corporate-debt market and the banking industry.
“We are on the verge of an economic collapse which starts, let’s say, in Greece, but it could easily spread,” billionaire investor George Soros said during a panel discussion in Vienna on June 26. “The financial system remains extremely vulnerable.”
Laying Low
Most hedge funds had been hesitant to make big wagers against European debt ahead of the parliamentary vote in Athens last week that led to the European Union approving the aid to Greece, said Omar Kodmani, senior executive officer at London- based Permal Investment Management, a unit of Legg Mason Inc. that has invested $23 billion with hedge funds on behalf of clients.
Finance chiefs of the 17 nations that use the euro also pledged to complete work on a second rescue package that could reach 85 billion euros ($122 billion) and would involve banks rolling over 70 percent of Greek bonds maturing by mid-2014.
“Most opinions on the euro-zone and Greece were not very pessimistic,” Kodmani said. “People saw it as a problem that could be postponed, so there hasn’t been much negative positioning.”
Hedge funds had been reluctant to discuss any bearish trades they made for fear of sparking protests from regulators who view the investors as vultures. On July 5, European lawmakers called for restrictions on traders’ uses of credit- default swaps to profit from failures on sovereign debt they don’t own. Credit default swaps are a type of insurance that makes investors whole if a borrower fails to pay.
Assessing Austerity’s Impact
Now that an immediate Greek default has been avoided, investors are looking for ways to play continued distress among countries including Italy, the euro-area’s third-largest economy, and Spain, its fourth. The extra yield investors demand to hold Portugal’s 10-year bonds over German bunds surged 212 basis points yesterday to a euro-era record 1013 basis points after Moody’s cut its credit rating four levels to Ba2, below investment grade.
The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond reached the highest in almost three years, while the spread over German bunds for Spain’s 10-year bond rose to 267 basis points, compared with 208 basis points a year earlier. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
One area where Finch has been trading is the debt of mobile-phone companies, whose ability to repay bonds and loans could be diminished by austerity-triggered economic slowdowns. If such companies were downgraded, the market would be flooded with junk bonds, causing prices to fall.
“If you crimp peoples’ spending, you’ll find that phone calls are surprisingly discretionary,” Finch said.
Market Overhang
Portugal Telecom SGPS SA (PTC), the country’s biggest telephone company, is rated one rung above junk, according to a presentation that Finch made to investors in May. In the event of a downgrade, its 5.8 billion euros of debt would equal about one-10th of this year’s forecasted issuance of 55 billion euros to 60 billion euros in non-investment-grade bonds.
Telecom Italia SpA (TIT), Italy’s biggest phone company, is rated two notches above high yield. In the event of a downgrade, it would equal half of this year’s estimated issuance, according to the presentation.
Finch is also looking at utilities and toll roads where prices charged to consumers are regulated by the government. Budget-cutting measures could keep the government from providing subsidies to corporations, which will then have to make up the gap between the cost of providing services and what people can pay for them.
“Our thesis is that the bad countries can make bad corporate debt,” he said.
Marathon Asset’s View
Marathon Asset Management LP, a $10 billion fund run by Bruce Richards, told investors in mid-June that it’s evaluating the purchase of portfolios of $1 billion or more of real estate and corporate loans from banks in Portugal, Ireland, Spain, the United Kingdom and Italy as they are forced to sell debt to raise capital, according to a presentation sent to clients.
Richards expects some countries to nationalize financial institutions and sell assets because the banks have borrowed too much money.
“The banking problem is acute throughout Europe, including the German, French and U.K. banks, which have begun to sell assets and raise capital,” Richards wrote in the 27-page presentation.
Marathon, based in New York, said it has already traded more than $1 billion gross market value of sovereign credit in the peripheral European countries this year, using both CDS and bonds.
Too Sanguine
Nick Swenson, who runs Groveland Capital LLC in Minneapolis, has been wagering on sovereign defaults in peripheral European countries since March 2010. He’s not concentrating on Portugal or Ireland. Instead his $10 million fund is buying credit-default swaps on Spanish and Italian government bonds, which are cheaper than those other countries and whose defaults would potentially cause more damage in the market.
“Italy and Spain seem to be outliers,” he said of the relatively robust prices of their CDS, which trade at 222 basis points and 307 basis points, according to data provider CMA, compared with 935 basis points for Portugal and 2,150 basis points for Greece. “People think they aren’t at risk of defaulting.”
Economic Inertia
Credit swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt.
While their economies are certainly more robust than Greece’s, Italy and Spain aren’t out of the woods, Swenson said.
“The scale of their economies creates an inertia that somehow raises the probability of something bad happening,” he said.
“The need to restructure the periphery and the quite reasonable demand that bondholders take pain will, in my view, happen,” said Swenson. “It’s not a radical view and yet prices of all non-Greek bonds seem to be too optimistic.
Al Moniz, portfolio manager at Fore Research & Management LP, a New York-based hedge fund with $1.9 billion under management, said he is “very bearish” on European sovereign debt and the region’s banks, though he declined to say how he was positioning his portfolio to take advantage of that weakness.
“We are still in the early stages of the European crisis,” he said. “It hasn’t even been 30 percent played out.”
(Bloomberg)
By Katherine Burton and Saijel Kishan - Jul 7, 2011 6:00 AM GMT+0200 Thu Jul 07 04:00:07 GMT 2011
Hedge funds that trade bonds and loans are increasing bets that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will spread to Portugal, Spain and Italy, even after Greece won a temporary reprieve with 12 billion euros in aid.
“Nothing you’ve seen so far has dealt with solvency, just liquidity,” said Simon Finch, head of credit trading at CQS UK LLP, a London-based hedge fund that oversees $11 billion.
Finch, who has bought and sold corporate bonds and loans for 18 years, has stepped up trading in mobile-phone, utility and toll-road companies in the three countries. He expects their governments will be forced to slash spending to pay off lenders, slowing growth and reducing discretionary consumer outlays.
CQS is among the hedge funds that say investors are underestimating the odds of distress or even default not only by Portugal, whose credit rating was downgraded this week to junk status by Moody’s, but also by the bigger Italy and Spain. The funds are moving beyond a direct wager that sovereign debt values will tumble, targeting potential fallout in the corporate-debt market and the banking industry.
“We are on the verge of an economic collapse which starts, let’s say, in Greece, but it could easily spread,” billionaire investor George Soros said during a panel discussion in Vienna on June 26. “The financial system remains extremely vulnerable.”
Laying Low
Most hedge funds had been hesitant to make big wagers against European debt ahead of the parliamentary vote in Athens last week that led to the European Union approving the aid to Greece, said Omar Kodmani, senior executive officer at London- based Permal Investment Management, a unit of Legg Mason Inc. that has invested $23 billion with hedge funds on behalf of clients.
Finance chiefs of the 17 nations that use the euro also pledged to complete work on a second rescue package that could reach 85 billion euros ($122 billion) and would involve banks rolling over 70 percent of Greek bonds maturing by mid-2014.
“Most opinions on the euro-zone and Greece were not very pessimistic,” Kodmani said. “People saw it as a problem that could be postponed, so there hasn’t been much negative positioning.”
Hedge funds had been reluctant to discuss any bearish trades they made for fear of sparking protests from regulators who view the investors as vultures. On July 5, European lawmakers called for restrictions on traders’ uses of credit- default swaps to profit from failures on sovereign debt they don’t own. Credit default swaps are a type of insurance that makes investors whole if a borrower fails to pay.
Assessing Austerity’s Impact
Now that an immediate Greek default has been avoided, investors are looking for ways to play continued distress among countries including Italy, the euro-area’s third-largest economy, and Spain, its fourth. The extra yield investors demand to hold Portugal’s 10-year bonds over German bunds surged 212 basis points yesterday to a euro-era record 1013 basis points after Moody’s cut its credit rating four levels to Ba2, below investment grade.
The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond reached the highest in almost three years, while the spread over German bunds for Spain’s 10-year bond rose to 267 basis points, compared with 208 basis points a year earlier. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
One area where Finch has been trading is the debt of mobile-phone companies, whose ability to repay bonds and loans could be diminished by austerity-triggered economic slowdowns. If such companies were downgraded, the market would be flooded with junk bonds, causing prices to fall.
“If you crimp peoples’ spending, you’ll find that phone calls are surprisingly discretionary,” Finch said.
Market Overhang
Portugal Telecom SGPS SA (PTC), the country’s biggest telephone company, is rated one rung above junk, according to a presentation that Finch made to investors in May. In the event of a downgrade, its 5.8 billion euros of debt would equal about one-10th of this year’s forecasted issuance of 55 billion euros to 60 billion euros in non-investment-grade bonds.
Telecom Italia SpA (TIT), Italy’s biggest phone company, is rated two notches above high yield. In the event of a downgrade, it would equal half of this year’s estimated issuance, according to the presentation.
Finch is also looking at utilities and toll roads where prices charged to consumers are regulated by the government. Budget-cutting measures could keep the government from providing subsidies to corporations, which will then have to make up the gap between the cost of providing services and what people can pay for them.
“Our thesis is that the bad countries can make bad corporate debt,” he said.
Marathon Asset’s View
Marathon Asset Management LP, a $10 billion fund run by Bruce Richards, told investors in mid-June that it’s evaluating the purchase of portfolios of $1 billion or more of real estate and corporate loans from banks in Portugal, Ireland, Spain, the United Kingdom and Italy as they are forced to sell debt to raise capital, according to a presentation sent to clients.
Richards expects some countries to nationalize financial institutions and sell assets because the banks have borrowed too much money.
“The banking problem is acute throughout Europe, including the German, French and U.K. banks, which have begun to sell assets and raise capital,” Richards wrote in the 27-page presentation.
Marathon, based in New York, said it has already traded more than $1 billion gross market value of sovereign credit in the peripheral European countries this year, using both CDS and bonds.
Too Sanguine
Nick Swenson, who runs Groveland Capital LLC in Minneapolis, has been wagering on sovereign defaults in peripheral European countries since March 2010. He’s not concentrating on Portugal or Ireland. Instead his $10 million fund is buying credit-default swaps on Spanish and Italian government bonds, which are cheaper than those other countries and whose defaults would potentially cause more damage in the market.
“Italy and Spain seem to be outliers,” he said of the relatively robust prices of their CDS, which trade at 222 basis points and 307 basis points, according to data provider CMA, compared with 935 basis points for Portugal and 2,150 basis points for Greece. “People think they aren’t at risk of defaulting.”
Economic Inertia
Credit swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt.
While their economies are certainly more robust than Greece’s, Italy and Spain aren’t out of the woods, Swenson said.
“The scale of their economies creates an inertia that somehow raises the probability of something bad happening,” he said.
“The need to restructure the periphery and the quite reasonable demand that bondholders take pain will, in my view, happen,” said Swenson. “It’s not a radical view and yet prices of all non-Greek bonds seem to be too optimistic.
Al Moniz, portfolio manager at Fore Research & Management LP, a New York-based hedge fund with $1.9 billion under management, said he is “very bearish” on European sovereign debt and the region’s banks, though he declined to say how he was positioning his portfolio to take advantage of that weakness.
“We are still in the early stages of the European crisis,” he said. “It hasn’t even been 30 percent played out.”
(Bloomberg)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Tommy o qualcun'altro registrato al sito che facesse un rapido copia-incolla qui?
Mi tedia registrarmi... so' pigro
Thanks in advance....
Schäuble presses case for bond swap
By Gerrit Wiesmann in Berlin and Patrick Jenkins and Megan Murphy in London
German politicians have started a new push for Greece’s creditors to agree to a one-off swap of their sovereign bonds for paper with longer maturities but private-sector bondholders said it would not gain traction.
Just as eurozone governments and banks appeared to be coalescing around a French-led plan for a piecemeal rollover into new 30-year bonds, Wolfgang Schäuble, German finance minister, said a rethink was needed as talks about “a quantifiable private-sector contribution . . . had produced no result”.
Mr Schäuble’s initiative was buttressed by deputy finance minister Jörg Asmussen, who told Reuters television that he supported “other options like a bond exchange”. Germany had earlier floated the idea of pushing bondholders to swap existing bonds into new ones with a seven-year maturity extension.
The German intervention came as leading private-sector creditors to Greece met in Paris to work on potential adaptations of the original French blueprint.
That scheme involved a targeted 70 per cent of outstanding Greek sovereign debt to end-2014 being rolled over into 30-year-bonds, a 20 per cent slice of which Greece would have to reinvest in European AAA bonds as an insurance mechanism to guard against default. The bonds would carry an interest rate of up to 8 per cent.
Wednesday’s meeting debated tweaks to that plan – extending the rollover target percentage and cutting the coupon potentially to below 6 per cent. But participants said little headway was made. “There was a lot of confusion, it was very chaotic,” said one. “A lot of people spent a lot of time just stating their opinion.”
Another said that no mention was made at the meeting of German politicians’ revived seven-year exchange idea and dismissed it out of hand.
“The fact that we’re seeing that proposal come back up shows what little grasp the public sector has of the technical issues involved,” a third participant said. “The private sector is significantly more advanced in their understanding.” Bankers at the Paris meeting said despite relatively slow progress a consensus was forming among private-sector creditors. “The debate is centring around three options,” said one.
While the central idea is the French 30-year rollover, an alternative rollover – also mentioned in the French proposal – would involve a five-year extension with a coupon of 5.5 per cent.
But the Institute of International Finance, which chaired the Paris meeting, is also keen to advance a third idea – encouraging buybacks of Greek debt. The buybacks could be funded out of EU/IMF aid money, advisers said, but there was also a push to encourage sovereign wealth funds in Europe, the Middle East and Asia to co-invest alongside the IMF. It was “not unreasonable” to expect €40bn–€50bn to come from such sources, one negotiator said. A further meeting of private-sector creditors is scheduled for Thursday in Rome, with fewer attendees.
Expectations of how quickly eurozone banks would be able to craft a comprehensive plan for private sector involvement needed to be “significantly downgraded”, one senior banker said.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Papandreou extends invitation to political dialogue
Prime Minister George Papandreou on Wednesday lashed out at all those who incite or exercise violence targeting Parliament deputies and political parties, as he said.
Addressing a Cabinet meeting, Papandreou rejected the view promoted by certain circles blaming the economic crisis and austerity measures for all the country's ills.
“The crisis alone cannot breed violence,” the prime minister stressed, adding that “assaults, attacks and jeering, even when targeting ordinary citizens, are being urged and incited by extreme political groups” and “by individuals desperately seeking a personal political role, as well as, by certain media-bred public opinion shapers”.
He said that everybody should assume their share of responsibility and underlined that “a State that is ruled by the law cannot tolerate ‘spontaneous’ or organized violence.”
He pointed out that the attacks on MPs and the parliament “mutilate democracy and undermine civil liberties”. Referring to historical precedence, he stressed that “every time anti-parliamentarianism and the practice of challenging democratic institutions were cultivated have resulted to anti-democratic diversion.”
Papandreou extended an “invitation to dialogue and responsibility” to everybody and added that he will suggest the establishment of a cross-party committee to discuss and decide on policies and measures “that will protect institutions, safeguard the rule of law, improve the organizing of public gatherings, police operation, etc.
The prime minister referred to the reforms currently promoted by the government focusing on the tertiary education and stressed that reactions are expected by those “who have an interest in maintaining the status quo”.
Expressed faith in the reforms that are being promoted and pointed out that “the decisions we make today will serve in the future as a reference point; a turning point in our country’s history.”
Papandreou ruled out the likelihood of snap elections, stressing that in 2013 the people will be called to assess the job done.
(ana.gr)
Prime Minister George Papandreou on Wednesday lashed out at all those who incite or exercise violence targeting Parliament deputies and political parties, as he said.
Addressing a Cabinet meeting, Papandreou rejected the view promoted by certain circles blaming the economic crisis and austerity measures for all the country's ills.
“The crisis alone cannot breed violence,” the prime minister stressed, adding that “assaults, attacks and jeering, even when targeting ordinary citizens, are being urged and incited by extreme political groups” and “by individuals desperately seeking a personal political role, as well as, by certain media-bred public opinion shapers”.
He said that everybody should assume their share of responsibility and underlined that “a State that is ruled by the law cannot tolerate ‘spontaneous’ or organized violence.”
He pointed out that the attacks on MPs and the parliament “mutilate democracy and undermine civil liberties”. Referring to historical precedence, he stressed that “every time anti-parliamentarianism and the practice of challenging democratic institutions were cultivated have resulted to anti-democratic diversion.”
Papandreou extended an “invitation to dialogue and responsibility” to everybody and added that he will suggest the establishment of a cross-party committee to discuss and decide on policies and measures “that will protect institutions, safeguard the rule of law, improve the organizing of public gatherings, police operation, etc.
The prime minister referred to the reforms currently promoted by the government focusing on the tertiary education and stressed that reactions are expected by those “who have an interest in maintaining the status quo”.
Expressed faith in the reforms that are being promoted and pointed out that “the decisions we make today will serve in the future as a reference point; a turning point in our country’s history.”
Papandreou ruled out the likelihood of snap elections, stressing that in 2013 the people will be called to assess the job done.
(ana.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Wealthy Turks eyeing Greek islets
Greece’s financial woes are increasing national sovereignty concerns too, as Turkish magnates are reported to be interested in buying a number of small Greek islands, such as Kaltsonisi.
Turkish daily Zaman reported yesterday that the chairman of the Fiyapi construction firm, Fikret Inan, has set aside 20 million euros to buy three islets and another 80 million to build luxury hotels and villas on them.
ekathimerini.com , Wednesday Jul 6, 2011 (23:04)
Turkish daily Zaman reported yesterday that the chairman of the Fiyapi construction firm, Fikret Inan, has set aside 20 million euros to buy three islets and another 80 million to build luxury hotels and villas on them.
ekathimerini.com , Wednesday Jul 6, 2011 (23:04)
- Stato
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