Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

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Ben alzato...:lol:
Qualche post indietro ti ho chiamato in causa, se te lo leggi mi piacerebbe in particolare una tua opinione.
Te lo linko:
http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/2314271-post42839.html

scusa, non l'ho letto tutto, diciamo 1 riga su 3 (tu scrivi veramente troppo :D)

se potevano tanto facilmente dire " non abbiamo i soldi, le 2014-2020 le allunghiamo al 2040 e abbassiamo la cedola" l'avrebbero gia' fatto da un pezzo...
e ovviamente tra qualche mese farebbero lo stesso con le 2020-2030...
ma non possono farlo
vogliono darmi un 30anni AAA al 3%? mi va benissimo
avendo prezzi di carico di 50, prendo il 9% annuo AAA (6% solo di cedola) , non mi lamento
ma anche questo NON possono farlo obbligatoriamente
ma anche se lo facessero...che succede?
se non mi rimborsano un 2015 , pensate che il mercato possa avere fiducia in una 2025? o in una 2037? IMPOSSIBILE!
perfino la UE ha capito che i soldi che presta alla grecia non li rivedra' MAI e prima hanno allungato da 3 anni a 7 anni (2020) e ora da 7 anni a 15 (2030)
quindi...ditemi come fara' una 2025 o una 2026 o una 2037 a salire di prezzo piu' di una 2015-2017!
cmq....aspettiamo altre news...ma continuo ad essere 100% convinto che sara' tutto VOLONTARIO
 
SALVATAGGIO GRECO L'Europa interviene con l'Efsf
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Websim - 21/07/2011 18:41:39
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Il segnale forte che si aspettavano i mercati dall'Europa è arrivato. Secondo la bozza di intesa che i capi di Stato e di governo della Zona euro dovrebbero approvare questa sera, il fondo europeo salva-Stati Efsf (European Financial Stability Fund) verrà in soccorso di tutti i Paesi della Zona euro in difficoltà.

In particolare il fondo di stabilità emetterà nuove obbligazioni, dotate di rating tripla A, e con i soldi raccolti finanzieràuna serie di interventi per riportare serenità nella Zona euro. I principali strumenti di intervento saranno: prestiti a tasso agevolato (3,5%) ai Paesi in difficoltà, buy back di titoli di Stato dei Paesi a rischio, posticipo della scadenze su alcuni titoli governativi.

Al piano parteciperanno anche gli investitori privati (cioè le banche) che accetteranno l'estensione di alcune scadenze di titoli di Stato in portafoglio. La bozza in discussione a Bruxelles non parla solo di Grecia, ma estende i potenziali interventi anche a Irlanda e Portogallo, che dovrebbero beneficiare dell'allungamento della scadenza dei prestiti ricevuti dall'Efsf a 15, dagli attuali 7,5anni.

Le nuove erogazioni del fondo di stabilità, dice il documento, saranno caratterizzate da un tasso di interesse intorno a 3,5%, rispetto al 4,5% degli ultimi interventi.
All' Efsf sarà inoltre permesso di concedere linee di credito "cautelative" a paesi della Zona euro, esclusi quelli attualmente oggetto degli aiuti Ue/Fmi, dunque anche ad Italia e Spagna.

"A questo si accompagnerà un meccanismo che garantisce adeguati incentivi per la messa a punto del programma", recita il documento. In particolare passa la richiesta finlandese di nuovi finanziamenti in cambio di garanzie reali, come, ad esempio, aziende statali.

Se sarà approvato, questo piano segna un drastico cambio di rotta della politica economica europea. La prima evidente novità è l'unione ritrovata tra i capi di Stato. Germania e Olanda, infatti, erano disposte a intervenire solo dopo un coinvolgimento dei privati. La Bce non voleva intervenire direttamente nel salvataggio dei singoli Paesi per mantenere la propria indipendenza sul mercato. Alla fine una mediazione è stata trovata. I privati parteciperanno al piano di salvataggio. Francia, Germania e Olanda rifinanzieranno in parte l'Efsf che emetterà anche nuove obbligazione e andrà a leva sul mercato di ben 10 volte il proprio patrimonio, per acquistare titoli degli Stati in difficoltà. Anche la Bce è soddisfatta perché non sarà lei a intervenire direttamente sul mercato, ma sarà l'Efsf.

Infine l'Efsf potrà ricalcare le mosse dell'americana Fed acquistando i titoli di Stato direttamente sul mercato secondario.

www.websim.it
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sono convinto che il tuo ragionamento è corretto, e riprova ne è che da tempo ho scambiato 25, 37 e 40 per max 2019
tieni presente però che le tue analisi, non hanno valore assoluto ma in riferimento ai prezzi !!! :eek:

ESATTO!!!
al cambiare dei prezzi, cambia tutto il ragionamento!
infatti l'ho sempre scritto...se una 2025 costa UGUALE ad una 2015, io passo alla 2015
vabbe', ora esco, poi vediamo se ci saranno altri dettagli
 
scusa, non l'ho letto tutto, diciamo 1 riga su 3 (tu scrivi veramente troppo :D)

se potevano tanto facilmente dire " non abbiamo i soldi, le 2014-2020 le allunghiamo al 2040 e abbassiamo la cedola" l'avrebbero gia' fatto da un pezzo...
e ovviamente tra qualche mese farebbero lo stesso con le 2020-2030...
ma non possono farlo
vogliono darmi un 30anni AAA al 3%? mi va benissimo
avendo prezzi di carico di 50, prendo il 9% annuo AAA (6% solo di cedola) , non mi lamento
ma anche questo NON possono farlo obbligatoriamente
ma anche se lo facessero...che succede?
se non mi rimborsano un 2015 , pensate che il mercato possa avere fiducia in una 2025? o in una 2037? IMPOSSIBILE!
perfino la UE ha capito che i soldi che presta alla grecia non li rivedra' MAI e prima hanno allungato da 3 anni a 7 anni (2020) e ora da 7 anni a 15 (2030)
quindi...ditemi come fara' una 2025 o una 2026 o una 2037 a salire di prezzo piu' di una 2015-2017!
cmq....aspettiamo altre news...ma continuo ad essere 100% convinto che sara' tutto VOLONTARIO

Infatti non penso che le lunghe possano avere un rimbalzo. Ma neanche peggiorare più di tanto, poichè per adesso la Grecia è sostenuta e finanziata e gli stanno modificando positivamente l'outlook sgravandola di una enormità di oneri finanziari per i prossimi 10 anni. E continuerebbero a percepire la medesima cedola, che ai prezzi attuali è un ottimo cash yield. Io non credo che fra due anni tocca alle altre scadenze essere riviste, perchè non ce n'è motivo. Per come hanno progettato questa ristrutturazione, la Grecia dovrebbe essere coperta finanziariamente per molti anni a venire. Inoltre altro nodo della questione, sono le garanzie AAA dell'eventuale swap che ancora non ho trovato scritte nero su bianco. Terzo, ma non ultimo punto, continui a confidare che non possono fare manovre obbligatorie:così si diceva, ma ora sembra che il tabù del default sia caduto...
Vabbe' vediamo di attendere notizie un po' più circostanziate.
 
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Germany blocks Greek bailout at eurozone crisis summit as debt-ridden country warns it faces ‘slow death’ without £45bn handout



  • Merkel says Greece must face 'selective default' after pact with Sarkozy
  • She persuades French president to drop bank levy plan for £45bn bailout
  • Crunch talks in Brussels could lead to death of euro if there's no agreement
  • Fears of European Black Friday engulfing Britain if no Greek deal is sorted
  • But stock markets RISE on news that two biggest economies are 'resolved'
By Daily Mail Reporter

Last updated at 5:37 PM on 21st July 2011




Greek hopes for second massive bailout may have been crushed today after Germany blocked a new £45billion cash injection during a crunch Brussels summit to save the euro.
However, fears that Greece will default on its £290billion debt - and trigger the break up of the single currency - may have been allayed by an alternative plan proposed by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Mrs Merkel suggested that the beleaguered Mediterranean country should fall into 'selective default' - meaning some of its loans would not be serviced as originally planned.

article-2016775-0D198BBF00000578-527_306x423.jpg




'Pact': German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy, seen arriving in Brussels today for the emergency debt summit, after she persuaded him to drop plans for a Greek bailout funded by a bank tax



article-2017335-0D1AB23700000578-658_634x443.jpg
No dice: Mrs Merkel has a fixed look as she meets Greek PM George Papandreou before the summit

But, instead of leaving buyers of Greek debt penniless, she suggested private investors swap their 10-year bonds for ones that mature in 30 years.

Mrs Merkel is likely to persuade other leaders of her plan after removing her main stumbling block - France's alternative of bailing out Greece and paying for it over five years with a bank levy.

In a meeting last night in Berlin, the German chancellor scored a major victory by persuading French president Nicolas Sarkozy to drop the idea.
With a selective default, Greek banks may still need funds to recapitalise - but the sums required would be considerably less than the 50billion euros the Athens government wants.
Greece's development minister Mihalis Chrysohoidis said his country's economy faced a 'slow death' unless leaders took decisive action.



But news that the two biggest economies in the eurozone are in agreement has been been warmly received. Britain's FTSE 100 rose by just under 1% today.
However, no decisions by the 17 currency bloc leaders at the emergency summit have yet been made and discussions may continue into the night.
Among other proposals being discussed are issuing a single eurozone bond debt.

This idea was also mooted by Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne, who in a dramatic move away from traditional Tory reticence over a more centralised Europe, called for greater fiscal union among countries using the single currency.

He also urged European leaders to 'get a grip' and warned that if action was not taken there was potential for a set of economic events that could be as damaging as 2008' and that Britain would not be spared.

He insisted Britain should remain outside the euro, but said the 'remorseless logic' of the single currency meant issuing a single bond for those 17 member states 'worthy of serious consideration.'
The central problem facing the the currency bloc is that the most indebted nations, principally Greece, are approaching a stage where they cannot service debts taken out through the issuing of separate sovereign bonds.

The interest payments that markets demand in from these weaker economies for these loans has been rising.

The rate on a 10-year Greek bond is 17.34 per cent, compares with 2.79 per cent for the equivalent German one.


article-2016775-0D196B5B00000578-474_634x463.jpg
Dire straits: The relative debts of Europe's weakest economies (figures from May)

Spanish and Italian bond yields have risen to euro-era records this week as nerves grow over their ability to repay debts.
Mr Osborne and others have suggested that the European Central Bank consolidates member state's borrowing by creating 'euro bonds' as a way of shoring up the most indebted nations.
This would provide cheaper borrowing for the indebted nations but would raise costs for richer ones - notably Germany - and would involve richer nations guaranteeing the debt of their indebted neighbours.
It is also controversial because it would create a two-speed EU - with Britain sitting outside the main bloc of eurozone members - an idea that both the Coalition and previous Labour governments have tried to frustrate.

But, in an interview with the Financial Times, Mr Osborne insisted it was time to take 'decisive action'.
article-2016775-0D1770CD00000578-37_306x350.jpg

There are fears that Greece was allowed to default on its debts, it could poison access to the bond market for bigger countries such as Spain and Italy.
And, if investors think those countries - which together make up more than a quarter of the eurozone's economy - will not pay back their loans, some economists say the impact on the single currency could be devastating.
In such a situation, possible that there would be a rush to sell euros, causing rampant inflation in member states and wiping out the value of millions of Europeans' savings.
The impact on Britain would also be severe as a recession spread amid fears the country also could not service its loans.
News today that the amount Britain borrowed last month was £400million than expected will not help dampen these concerns.
Also, UK banks own billions of pounds worth of debt in Europe's weakest economy, which if nations defaulted could instantly lead to another credit crunch.

Except this time, the Government would have no means of bailing out the financial sector like it did in 2008.

In the short term, with debts still being serviced - but rising across Europe - British homebuyers and firms are facing higher lending costs as banks try to boost their capital.

Yesterday, the Bank of England warned that turmoil on the Continent was ‘likely to affect the price and affordability of credit to many households and businesses adversely’.
The outcome of today's crunch Brussels summit could be pivotal to allaying these fears.

Although a direct bailout of Greece may prove the best short-term way of stopping the bond market from crashing, Mrs Merkel believes that in the long term it will do harm.
Her countrymen are also very wary of bailouts and historically have an obsession with fiscal prudence after era of hyperinflation in the 1920s.

Before attending the summit today she said: 'We have a Eurogroup meeting today which will be about a further important step in overcoming the debt crisis.

'I expect that we will be able to seal a new Greece programme. That is an important signal. And with this programme we want to grasp the problems by their root.

'That is to say the sustainability of the debt must be improved and the competitiveness must be improved above all, those are the two reasons why some countries in the euro zone have problems.'





And on Tesuday she told The Guardian: 'I know there's a great longing for a big decision, proposals for eurobonds, a big restructuring [of Greek debt], for a transfer union, and much besides
'I will not give in to this. The government will not give in to this.'
In Britain, the phone hacking scandal has paralysed politics for a fortnight, meaning that there has been little input from our own leaders.
But, as Westminster finally started to lift its gaze, David Cameron said Britain faced ‘very bad consequences’ unless decisive action is taken.
The Prime Minister described today's talks as a ‘last-chance saloon’.
Mr Cameron told Tory MPs Britain faced tough economic and political times and asked them to ‘keep walking towards the economic arguments’.
Labour former chancellor Alistair Darling said the eurozone needed to show it would ‘do whatever is necessary’ to stop the contagion spreading outside of Greece to bigger economies such as Italy.
He said bailing out Greece would cost the German taxpayer but they ‘would be in it up to their necks’ if there was meltdown in the eurozone.

Mr Darling told BBC Radio 4's Today programme there were ‘consequences’ to a single currency.
He said: ‘Two things are necessary. I think the eurozone does need to look at the full issuing of euro bonds, which would make it cheaper for those indebted countries to borrow and give them some chance of getting out of it.
'Secondly, you have got to accept that if you are in a single currency, you have got to behave as any other country would and that is the richer parts help the poorer parts through the reforms they need so they can start to grow.'
‘It is essential that an agreement be reached on a plan that prevents further escalation of the crisis. Deciding not to decide could mark the end of the eurozone as we know it,’ they said.
 
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XqlfSSLvlU]‪EU Summit: Have EU leaders done enough to stop contagion?‬‏ - YouTube[/ame]
 
Rescuing Greece Through A Selective Default Could Collapse CDS Markets

Jul. 21 2011 - 1:14 pm | 1 views | 0 recommendations | 0 comments
"This way, Papandreou, and you too, Zapatero": France and Germany show the PIIGS the way -AFP via @daylife


As markets await the final release of the European Union’s proposal to rescue Greece and prevent a similar outcome in already bailed out countries like Ireland and Portugal, and anticipate a deterioration in Spain and Italy, it has been heard through the grape vine that the possibility of a sovereign default in Greece is on the table. If indeed Greece enters a state of “selective default” for a very short period, maybe just a few days, all attention will be focused on credit default swaps markets (CDS) and what constitutes a “trigger.”
News outlets have picked up a supposed draft proposal that delineates the basic shape of the Merkel-Sarkozy deal that will try to dig Europe out of a very deep ditch. Along with a new bail out, an extension of loan maturities coupled with a reduction of borrowing costs, the plan includes the controversial clause of “voluntary” involvement by Greek bondholders, major European banks. (Read European Rally Crosses Atlantic As Optimism For Greek Deal Grows).
Private sector involvement, either through a bond-swap, roll-over, buy-back, or whatever mechanism, could trigger a credit event that would lead to a Greek default on its sovereign debt. Indeed Jean Claude Juncker, Eurogroup President, spooked markets when he said default was no longer an impossibility. His words were echoed by Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager hours later. (Read Voluntary Greek Restructuring Still Constitutes Default, S&P Says).
If credit rating agencies classified Greece’s sovereign debt as in a state of default, not only would there be problems with the quality of collateral accepted by the European Central Bank, but the essence of CDS markets would be called into question. CDSs are derivatives that provide insurance against default. Yet, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told markets a selective default “is not even a real event,” while affirming that if it occurred, it wouldn’t activate CDS contracts, according to Business Insider.
Technically, a CDS would be triggered “if there is a failure to pay, a restructuring which entails a change of cash flows or a subordination or redenomination (into other than a G7 or OECD AAA-rated country’s currency) or a moratorium or repudiation in the context of a credit deterioration,” according to Nomura.
The impact of triggering CDS for those who hold protection against Greek sovereign debt default would reach far. Despite the relatively small volume of CDS held against Greek bonds (with gross exposure around $70 billion and net notional exposure below $5 billion), there would be a domino effect that could spread voraciously through the EU.
Not only would some investors who sold CDS find themselves cash-strapped and fail to meet financial obligations, “a potential CDS trigger could [extend] to [other] OTC products (rather than CDS) and perhaps [affect] the solvency of individual banks which sold protection, or simply [lead] to a political desire to punish investors who are perceived as speculators,” explain Nomura’s experts. Contagion could even be made worst given that “CDS are thought of as a proxy for the spreading contagion” as they generally spark moves in bond spreads. (Read Euro Stress Tests Reveal 8 Banks Would Fail, 16 Barely Survived Adverse Conditions).
What if European authorities, along with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and his finance minister, manage to restructure the country’s debt without triggering a default?
The immediate market response would be a collapse of CDS markets. While it would boost bonds (lower their yields) in those countries at risk (Spain, Italy, the other bailed out PIIGS), the ability of CDS contracts to protect investors would be called into question and confidence completely eroded.
As the Euro gains strength and measures of risk on European assets falls, risk management teams across the world would be forced to re-hedge , “shedding any duration hedges recently bought “ while moving away from CDS markets (“[a] trigger should demonstrate that CDS was a particularly poor hedge for sovereign exposure”). (Read Roubini On Europe’s Last Stand: Don’t Fear A Greek Debt Restructuring And Selective Default).
This could indeed lead to an underestimation of risk by CVA desks (counterparty valuation desks) and build up substantial systemic risk in the system. It would also substantially increase moral hazard, sending mixed signals to investors as they attempt to make sense of intervened markets. While initially beneficial to many investors, the long-run repercussions could run deep.
European policymakers, walking the tight rope, will have to figure out how to best save their fragile monetary union while keeping faith in the system unscarred, without a safety net.
 
Germany blocks Greek bailout at eurozone crisis summit as debt-ridden country warns it faces ‘slow death’ without £45bn handout

Ora me lo leggo con calma, ma dalla prima impressione che ne ho ricevuto dalle premesse, se ora l' "informazione finanziaria" professionale riuscirà a diffondere una chiave di lettura di segno opposto e riesce a far rovesciare nuovamente i mercati azionari, allora devo ammettere che la speculazione finanziaria con la S maiuscola, ha spunti quasi artistici, a dir poco suggestiva.....
Signori, questi sono dei geni...dei grandi...Con un giù, su e di nuovo giù sono capaci di fare un movimento del 60% in una settimana :eek:
Ma la stampa finanziaria avrà mica qualche interesse a dare delle chiavi interpretative al mercato?
Ferro azzurro ama Anacott acciaio ;)
 
Ultima modifica:
Ora me lo leggo con calma, ma dalla prima impressione che ne ho ricevuto dalle premesse, se ora l' "informazione finanziaria" professionale riuscirà a diffondere una chiave di lettura di segno opposto e riesce a far rovesciare nuovamente i mercati azionari, allora devo ammettere che la speculazione finanziaria con la S maiuscola, ha spunti quasi artistici, a dir poco suggestiva.....
Signori, questi sono dei geni...dei grandi...Con un giù, su e di nuovo giù sono capaci di fare un movimento del 60% in una settimana :eek:
Ma la stampa finanziaria avrà mica qualche interesse a dare delle chiavi interpretative al mercato?
Ferro azzurro ama Anacot acciaio ;)

Il cetriolo arriva la sera ... :lol:.
 
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