Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1
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- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Gaudente
Forumer storico
Il che e' la peggior sfiga che puo' capitarvi, in quanto lungi dall'approfittare dell'estemporaneo rimbalzo per chiudere la posizione con una perdita piu' contenuta, la maggior parte di voi corre a ingozzarsi di altra carta igienica ellenica vaneggiando fantascientifici scenari di risanamento , col risultato di incrementare ulteriormente la perdita finale.Eppure i segnali sono evidenti, appena Gaudente si manifesta con i suoi post di imminenente fallimento i titoli riprendono un 10-20% (cala, cala) del loro valore.
tommy271
Forumer storico
I vostri patetici (e vi garantisco estemporanei) entusiasmi durante le sempre piu' brevi fasi di correzione dell'inesorabile trend secolare ribassista mi hanno riportato alla mente il paradosso di un film di fantascienza, "The Time Machine" , il remake.
In quel film il protagonista costruiva una macchina del tempo a seguito della morte della sua fidanzata in un incidente , ma per quanto si affannasse a cambiare il passato la fidanzata a fine giornata ci restava comunque secca. Il perche' gli verra' spiegato da un morlock dell'anno 801702 : dal momento che lui aveva costruito la macchina del tempo per salvare la fidanzata, se fosse riuscito nel suo intento non avrebbe costruito la macchina stessa, entrando in un paradosso.
Analogamente voi scommettete su un miglioramento dell'affidabilita' della Grecia come debitore grazie all'haircut implicito nello swap del debito che dovrebbe migliorare il rapporto debito/PIL. Ma l'entita' dell'haircut e quindi la sua efficacia dipende da quanto in basso rotoleranno le quotazioni dei titoli , se questi invece dovessero continuare a salire non sara' possibile alcun haircut significativo e quindi non potranno far altro che tornare a scendere perche' la situazione macro sara' rimasta tale e quale a prima.
Quindi vi chiedo, come e' possibile che i titoli salgano se cosi' facendo si pongono i presupposti per la loro discesa ?
Questo è vero.
Intanto su 300 MLD di debito, 50 MLD sono già stati acquistati "a saldo". Su questi non ci piove.
E' verosimile che un altro centinaio possa poi aderire volontariamente ad un possibile buy-back o su un Brady bond
Si dovrebbe trattare di circa una decina di punti sul PIL ...
Poi, credo, che a fine 2011 gli indicatori economici vedano prima o poi il rialzo, le recessione non durerà per l'eternità ...
Gaudente
Forumer storico
spera solo che frmaoro abbia ancora liquidita' da buttar...ahem... da investire
tommy271
Forumer storico
European Union examines Greek debt move in 2011-sources
Thu Feb 3, 2011 10:50am EST
* Debt buyback or changing bond terms considered for Greece
* Move on Greek debt later this year "one scenario"
* Any debt reprofiling would be voluntary for creditors
* Hopeful Ireland watches on but Germany remains undecided
By John O'Donnell
BRUSSELS, Feb 3 (Reuters) - European Union and German officials are examining possible steps to reduce Greece's debt burden as early as the second half of this year, sources with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday.
The timing of the move, which could take the form of a debt buyback or a voluntary change to the terms of Greek bonds, is designed to relieve pressure on Athens and take effect before most Greek debt passes into public sector hands.
Greece's public debt is set to climb above one and a half times national output by 2013 under to its EU/IMF rescue plan.
"It is one possible scenario," said a European Union source, commenting on the timing and nature of such a move.
"Buybacks would involve retiring bonds or exchanging them or they could try to agree with creditors to reduce the coupon and extend the maturity," said a second source familiar with thinking in Germany's finance ministry.
"If you put those together you can get a decent reduction in net present value. They do not want to talk about anything that is not voluntary because to do that would spook the markets," he added.
A French presidential source told reporters the euro zone rescue fund could lend Greece and any other strugglers facing a debt maturity hump the money to finance buy-backs or debt swaps for longer maturities on a voluntary basis.
Other countries such as Ireland, which also wants to renegotiate the terms of an 85 billion euro ($117 billion) rescue from the EU and the International Monetary Fund, are watching developments closely.
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou has repeatedly said Athens will not force losses on creditors. There is still no agreed German position on debt relief but the Finance Ministry denied Berlin was considering such a scenario.
Any decision will depend on Germany's ability to extract far-reaching concessions from its euro zone partners on fiscal discipline and economic reforms in return for supporting weaker countries such as Greece or Portugal.
"EURO ZONE CREDIBILITY"
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will float proposals for commitments to may euro zone economies more competitive at an EU summit on Friday, officials in Paris and Berlin said.
They will include incorporating deficit curbs in national constitutions, a common framework for company tax, greater wage flexibility and coordination on pension age, a "quid pro quo" which one diplomat said left some European partners cold.
Officials examining the timing of any Greek debt reduction are aware that waiting longer will see Greek debt migrate into EU hands and away from banks and other private investors as Athens uses EU loans to repay bonds as they fall due.
An early debt swap or buy-back could see a higher proportion of losses fall on private bondholders, such as insurers, pension funds or banks willing to take a write-down to reduce their exposure to Greece.
"If you wait until 2013, 50 percent of the outstanding Greek debt is going to be on the public balance sheet," said the second source.
This migration is already evident in statistics released by the Bank of International Settlements, which shows Greek borrowing, including state bonds, from foreign banks fell to $184 billion in September from $223 billion six months earlier.
One EU diplomat has told Reuters there is growing pressure on Germany to address Greece's problems this year.
"Greece is completely incapable of paying its debt," he said. "If you don't deal with the Greek problem this year, the euro zone will lose its credibility. Our interest in a restructuring is to prevent a total collapse of Greece."
Berlin will want to know how any change to Greek debt would affect German banks, the second biggest foreign creditors by nationality after French lenders.
Although they have reduced their exposure, German banks were still sitting on 40 billion euros of Greek loans and 154 billion euros of Irish debt, according to the most recent statistics.
However, some of these loans are held to maturity on the so-called banking book and would only incur losses if Greece defaulted and imposed a compulsory "haircut" on creditors.
Many analysts argue that Greece's debt, which is set to peak at 158 percent of its gross domestic product in 2013, may be too high for the country to repay entirely.
The price of credit default swaps on Greek bonds, used to insure against the risk of default, puts the chances of Athens defaulting at 30 percent over the next two years.
Thu Feb 3, 2011 10:50am EST
* Debt buyback or changing bond terms considered for Greece
* Move on Greek debt later this year "one scenario"
* Any debt reprofiling would be voluntary for creditors
* Hopeful Ireland watches on but Germany remains undecided
By John O'Donnell
BRUSSELS, Feb 3 (Reuters) - European Union and German officials are examining possible steps to reduce Greece's debt burden as early as the second half of this year, sources with knowledge of the matter said on Thursday.
The timing of the move, which could take the form of a debt buyback or a voluntary change to the terms of Greek bonds, is designed to relieve pressure on Athens and take effect before most Greek debt passes into public sector hands.
Greece's public debt is set to climb above one and a half times national output by 2013 under to its EU/IMF rescue plan.
"It is one possible scenario," said a European Union source, commenting on the timing and nature of such a move.
"Buybacks would involve retiring bonds or exchanging them or they could try to agree with creditors to reduce the coupon and extend the maturity," said a second source familiar with thinking in Germany's finance ministry.
"If you put those together you can get a decent reduction in net present value. They do not want to talk about anything that is not voluntary because to do that would spook the markets," he added.
A French presidential source told reporters the euro zone rescue fund could lend Greece and any other strugglers facing a debt maturity hump the money to finance buy-backs or debt swaps for longer maturities on a voluntary basis.
Other countries such as Ireland, which also wants to renegotiate the terms of an 85 billion euro ($117 billion) rescue from the EU and the International Monetary Fund, are watching developments closely.
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou has repeatedly said Athens will not force losses on creditors. There is still no agreed German position on debt relief but the Finance Ministry denied Berlin was considering such a scenario.
Any decision will depend on Germany's ability to extract far-reaching concessions from its euro zone partners on fiscal discipline and economic reforms in return for supporting weaker countries such as Greece or Portugal.
"EURO ZONE CREDIBILITY"
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will float proposals for commitments to may euro zone economies more competitive at an EU summit on Friday, officials in Paris and Berlin said.
They will include incorporating deficit curbs in national constitutions, a common framework for company tax, greater wage flexibility and coordination on pension age, a "quid pro quo" which one diplomat said left some European partners cold.
Officials examining the timing of any Greek debt reduction are aware that waiting longer will see Greek debt migrate into EU hands and away from banks and other private investors as Athens uses EU loans to repay bonds as they fall due.
An early debt swap or buy-back could see a higher proportion of losses fall on private bondholders, such as insurers, pension funds or banks willing to take a write-down to reduce their exposure to Greece.
"If you wait until 2013, 50 percent of the outstanding Greek debt is going to be on the public balance sheet," said the second source.
This migration is already evident in statistics released by the Bank of International Settlements, which shows Greek borrowing, including state bonds, from foreign banks fell to $184 billion in September from $223 billion six months earlier.
One EU diplomat has told Reuters there is growing pressure on Germany to address Greece's problems this year.
"Greece is completely incapable of paying its debt," he said. "If you don't deal with the Greek problem this year, the euro zone will lose its credibility. Our interest in a restructuring is to prevent a total collapse of Greece."
Berlin will want to know how any change to Greek debt would affect German banks, the second biggest foreign creditors by nationality after French lenders.
Although they have reduced their exposure, German banks were still sitting on 40 billion euros of Greek loans and 154 billion euros of Irish debt, according to the most recent statistics.
However, some of these loans are held to maturity on the so-called banking book and would only incur losses if Greece defaulted and imposed a compulsory "haircut" on creditors.
Many analysts argue that Greece's debt, which is set to peak at 158 percent of its gross domestic product in 2013, may be too high for the country to repay entirely.
The price of credit default swaps on Greek bonds, used to insure against the risk of default, puts the chances of Athens defaulting at 30 percent over the next two years.
mago gambamerlo
Xx Phuket xX
Magari non era la fidanzata giusta ? 
e chissa cosa avrebbe passato se fosse riuscito nel suo intento ? peggio dei bond greci ! 
e chissa cosa avrebbe passato se fosse riuscito nel suo intento ? peggio dei bond greci ! I vostri patetici (e vi garantisco estemporanei) entusiasmi durante le sempre piu' brevi fasi di correzione dell'inesorabile trend secolare ribassista mi hanno riportato alla mente il paradosso di un film di fantascienza, "The Time Machine" , il remake.
In quel film il protagonista costruiva una macchina del tempo a seguito della morte della sua fidanzata in un incidente , ma per quanto si affannasse a cambiare il passato la fidanzata a fine giornata ci restava comunque secca. Il perche' gli verra' spiegato da un morlock dell'anno 801702 : dal momento che lui aveva costruito la macchina del tempo per salvare la fidanzata, se fosse riuscito nel suo intento non avrebbe costruito la macchina stessa, entrando in un paradosso.
Analogamente voi scommettete su un miglioramento dell'affidabilita' della Grecia come debitore grazie all'haircut implicito nello swap del debito che dovrebbe migliorare il rapporto debito/PIL. Ma l'entita' dell'haircut e quindi la sua efficacia dipende da quanto in basso rotoleranno le quotazioni dei titoli , se questi invece dovessero continuare a salire non sara' possibile alcun haircut significativo e quindi non potranno far altro che tornare a scendere perche' la situazione macro sara' rimasta tale e quale a prima.
Quindi vi chiedo, come e' possibile che i titoli salgano se cosi' facendo si pongono i presupposti per la loro discesa ?
tommy271
Forumer storico
Borsa Atene: Ase chiude a +0,6%, Alpha a +2,4%
MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'indice Ase della Borsa di Atene termina le contrattazioni in rialzo dello 0,6% a quota 1675,1 punti. I volumi si attestano a 117,3 mln euro.
Il mercato greco riesce a mantenere stretti i recenti guadagni nonostante la volatilita' della seduta.
In territorio positivo Hellenic Telecoms a +5,6%, Alpha a +2,4%, Eurobank a +1,8%, National a +1,4% e Opap a +1,4%.
In controtendenza invece Titan a -1,8%, Coca Cola Hellenic a -1,6% e Piraeus a -1,1%
MILANO (MF-DJ)--L'indice Ase della Borsa di Atene termina le contrattazioni in rialzo dello 0,6% a quota 1675,1 punti. I volumi si attestano a 117,3 mln euro.
Il mercato greco riesce a mantenere stretti i recenti guadagni nonostante la volatilita' della seduta.
In territorio positivo Hellenic Telecoms a +5,6%, Alpha a +2,4%, Eurobank a +1,8%, National a +1,4% e Opap a +1,4%.
In controtendenza invece Titan a -1,8%, Coca Cola Hellenic a -1,6% e Piraeus a -1,1%
giutrader
Forumer attivo
I vostri patetici (e vi garantisco estemporanei) entusiasmi durante le sempre piu' brevi fasi di correzione dell'inesorabile trend secolare ribassista mi hanno riportato alla mente il paradosso di un film di fantascienza, "The Time Machine" , il remake.
In quel film il protagonista costruiva una macchina del tempo a seguito della morte della sua fidanzata in un incidente , ma per quanto si affannasse a cambiare il passato la fidanzata a fine giornata ci restava comunque secca. Il perche' gli verra' spiegato da un morlock dell'anno 801702 : dal momento che lui aveva costruito la macchina del tempo per salvare la fidanzata, se fosse riuscito nel suo intento non avrebbe costruito la macchina stessa, entrando in un paradosso.
Analogamente voi scommettete su un miglioramento dell'affidabilita' della Grecia come debitore grazie all'haircut implicito nello swap del debito che dovrebbe migliorare il rapporto debito/PIL. Ma l'entita' dell'haircut e quindi la sua efficacia dipende da quanto in basso rotoleranno le quotazioni dei titoli , se questi invece dovessero continuare a salire non sara' possibile alcun haircut significativo e quindi non potranno far altro che tornare a scendere perche' la situazione macro sara' rimasta tale e quale a prima.
Quindi vi chiedo, come e' possibile che i titoli salgano se cosi' facendo si pongono i presupposti per la loro discesa ?
------------------
E' tornato ed alla grande pure....
tommy271
Forumer storico
Athens Market Retains Upward Trend
Athens market managed to extend its upward trend for a seventh consecutive session, as the General Index changed signs for several times.
OTE topped FTSE20, while the performance of Alpha Bank, Eurobank and Bank of Cyprus stood out, ending at session’s high.
European Central Bank’s decision to freeze its key interest rate along with the statements of its president stayed on spotlight. Jean-Claude Trichet appeared less worries about inflationary pressures but gave no indications of an increase of interest rates in the future.
Bond market remains a key factor to the domestic market’s trend ahead of the European Summit on Friday, according to analysts. The narrowing of Greek bond spreads helped the banks rise and allowed the diversion of buying interest to other large caps.
"This session was still positive if wait and see on expectations that we will hear some measures Friday at the EU level for the resolution of Greek debt crisis, even if the full details will not be announced," Vasilis Konstandinidis, head of trading at Fortius Finance told Dow Jones Newswires.
"Real money accounts have come back to the Athens market with foreign investors snapping up banks and covering short positions. Meanwhile, local institutional are taking some profits. The market could ease next week but we don’t expect serious selling pressure," he added.
Across the board, the General Index ended at 1675.14 units, up 0.67%, in a margin of 1.6%. Approximately 55.54mn units were traded worth EUR117.4mn, while a total amount of 78 shares posted gains, 94 declined and 126 remained unchanged.
Banks fluctuated in a large margin of 43.25 units or 2.89%, before ending at 1514.26, up 1.29%. Highlight was the rise of Attica Bank and Proton Bank by 12.75% and 11.83% respectively, while Alpha Bank, Eurobank and Bank of Cyprus climbed by 2.46%, 1.84% and 1.81% respectively. Piraeus Bank and Marfin Popular Bank declined by 1.18% and 0.9% respectively.
Across FTSE20, apart from banks, OTE soared by 5.6%, while Viohalco and Mytilineos rose by 2% and 1.86% respectively.
(capital.gr)
Athens market managed to extend its upward trend for a seventh consecutive session, as the General Index changed signs for several times.
OTE topped FTSE20, while the performance of Alpha Bank, Eurobank and Bank of Cyprus stood out, ending at session’s high.
European Central Bank’s decision to freeze its key interest rate along with the statements of its president stayed on spotlight. Jean-Claude Trichet appeared less worries about inflationary pressures but gave no indications of an increase of interest rates in the future.
Bond market remains a key factor to the domestic market’s trend ahead of the European Summit on Friday, according to analysts. The narrowing of Greek bond spreads helped the banks rise and allowed the diversion of buying interest to other large caps.
"This session was still positive if wait and see on expectations that we will hear some measures Friday at the EU level for the resolution of Greek debt crisis, even if the full details will not be announced," Vasilis Konstandinidis, head of trading at Fortius Finance told Dow Jones Newswires.
"Real money accounts have come back to the Athens market with foreign investors snapping up banks and covering short positions. Meanwhile, local institutional are taking some profits. The market could ease next week but we don’t expect serious selling pressure," he added.
Across the board, the General Index ended at 1675.14 units, up 0.67%, in a margin of 1.6%. Approximately 55.54mn units were traded worth EUR117.4mn, while a total amount of 78 shares posted gains, 94 declined and 126 remained unchanged.
Banks fluctuated in a large margin of 43.25 units or 2.89%, before ending at 1514.26, up 1.29%. Highlight was the rise of Attica Bank and Proton Bank by 12.75% and 11.83% respectively, while Alpha Bank, Eurobank and Bank of Cyprus climbed by 2.46%, 1.84% and 1.81% respectively. Piraeus Bank and Marfin Popular Bank declined by 1.18% and 0.9% respectively.
Across FTSE20, apart from banks, OTE soared by 5.6%, while Viohalco and Mytilineos rose by 2% and 1.86% respectively.
(capital.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
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