Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

EURO GOVT-Greek yields continue to rise, Bunds edge up






Tue Apr 26, 2011 4:38am EDT

* Greek debt suffers on persistent restructuring worries
* Charts show growing positive momentum for Bund futures
* Markets eye Spanish T-bill sale



By William James


LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - Investors continued to shun Greek debt on Tuesday over escalating concerns the country would restructure its debt, while safe-haven Bund futures crept higher with technical charts pointing to further gains.
Investors continue to price in a growing probability that Greece will need to restructure its debt -- despite EU and Greek officials dismissing the idea -- pushing the country's credit default swaps and short-dated yields to their highest since the launch of the euro zone.

The 10-year Greek yield rose to 15.47 percent, up 41 bps on the day, with the paper trading at 56.3 percent of its face value GR10YT=TWEB. Greek credit default swaps rose 37 basis points to 1,340 bps.
Traders, however, said there was little flow behind the price moves.
"No-one sees a reason for (yield spreads) to tighten, with volumes so low... There's no natural buyer (of Greek debt) of any size in terms of these markets right now," a trader said.
"The only potential buyer is the European Central Bank but the ... relatively random talk that is coming out on restructuring doesn't help the situation (so) the ECB won't buy whilst (some other euro zone countries) continue to speak and put pressure on Greece to restructure."
Investors will watch Spain's sale of three- and six-month Treasury bills later in the session for signs of weakness after peripheral debt came under pressure across the board last week.
Analysts saw little risk of low demand for the paper, though yields are expected to rise from a similar sale last month as unease about the euro zone's weaker economies continues to drive markets that are also pricing in more ECB rate hikes.
"The contagion effect we saw last week is, I think, going to be short lived. Spain should be treated differently to the other three peripherals (Greece, Ireland and Portugal)," said Nick Stamenkovic, strategist at RIA Capital Markets.



BULLISH TONE


The Bund future FGBLc1 was last at 122.44, 13 ticks higher than Thursday's close, taking its direction from gains made by U.S. Treasuries on Monday when European markets were closed, though traded volumes remained well below average. Risk aversion in the euro zone bond market has lifted safe-haven German Bund futures by over 2 full points since April 11, leaving technical charts signalling room for further gains.
"Statistically, Bund sentiment has reached the most positive levels in eight months with a strong percentage of new highs versus lows indicating investors' increasing willingness to pay higher prices," said PIA First director Max Knudsen.
The outlook for Bunds was cautiously bullish while above their recent rising trendline at 121.73, Knudsen said, adding the contract could test last week's high of 122.65.
The main event for core government bond markets was the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting beginning later in the session and concluding on Wednesday.
However, with expectations of a significant change in policy signals very low, investors were reluctant to take positions on any further spillover into euro zone markets from the Treasury market.
Ten-year German Bund yields DE10YT=TWEB 1.2 basis points lower on the day at 3.253 percent -- around 12 basis points lower than equivalent Treasury yields.


***
Uno sguardo ad ampio raggio ...

 

[tommy271]

Greece To Address 10 Fronts Within 40 Days



Greek government enters a critical period as it is called to address 10 major issues until the end of June 2011.

A multi-bill that will reflect the details of the mid-term €26b package and the €50b privatization program. It is expected to be finalized within the week, as IMF/EU/ECB representatives arrive in Athens next weekend.

The government plans to proceed with successive announcements of measures and initiatives, in order to show off a sense of process, while the negotiations with the European authorities will intensify, regarding a new framework of fiscal supervision.

1. Eurostat announces on Tuesday the final revision of 2010 state deficit (which was estimated at 9.4% of GDP in November 2010).

2. The revenue gap reached €1.4b in the first quarter of 2011. Sources noted that a similar course was recorded in April, while the government proceeds with the announcement of plans against tax evasion by the end of the week.

3. IMF/EU/ECB officials, which arrive in early May for the finalization of government’s “Roadmap”, may urge for more than €3b measures. Proposed measures would include a new increase in excise taxes, imposition of income limit on social benefits, new payroll and new measures regarding arbitrary buildings.

4. Prime Minister will have successive meetings with the ministers within the week in order to finalize the package of measures. Many gaps in the €26 package should be covered, as Finance Minister Giorgos Papakonstantinou admitted that there are several disagreements with the troika. The equalization of taxation in heating oil and fuel has not been rejected yet, while there are several measures of Memorandum of Understanding that are still pending, such as “green” taxes, interventions in family allowances, cutting costs in public enterprises.

5. Meanwhile, the ministry attempts to speed up privatizations and development of real estate assets. The proposals of banks-consultants are expected in the coming days, along with the appointment of privatization advisers. The sett of Special Secretarial of Real Estate, the privatization of Mont Parnais Casino and the extension of Athens International Airport concession should be completed by the end of June. These are considered by troika as the minimum proof of Greece’s will to implement the medium-term plan.

6. Troika auditors arrive next weekend, while its officials are expected a week later to finalize the government’s measures until May 15.

7. The measures will be introduced before the Parliament as a multi-bill with a view to pass until late May. They will include “capping” of expenditure for every ministry, that could not be overcome without new measures.

8. At the same time, critical negotiations for the new fiscal framework will take place in Brussels. It includes much stricter rules for unwinding deficit and debt, and the aim is to be finalized by June.

9. Additionally, a revision of Greek debt sustainability and new banks’ stress tests will be crucial as they will provide an overview of the need for interventions in the debt-stricken member-states.

10. At the political level, a reshuffle of Cabinet is still possible. Finance Minister is expected to maintain his position, but he would be accompanied with new officials. However, it remains unclear when Prime Minister will choose to proceed with changes.

(capital.gr)

***
Una lunga primavera ...

 

[tommy271]

Greek Banks Cut Their Borrowing From ECB To EUR94.4 Billion In Jan



ATHENS -(Dow Jones)- Greek banks reduced their borrowings from the European Central Bank in January to EUR94.4 billion, data released by the Greek central bank showed Monday.
In December, Greek banks had borrowed EUR97.7 billion as part of a continuing emergency lifeline the ECB extended to Greek and other banks in Europe facing liquidity squeezes.
In May last year, the Greek government narrowly avoided default with the help of a EUR110 billion bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, but its bonds have been downgraded to junk status.
Since then, Greek banks have been effectively frozen out of European interbank markets amid fears that a Greek sovereign default would drag down the country's banks.
Greece's four major lenders--the National Bank of Greece SA (NBG), EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA (EUROB.AT), Alpha Bank SA (ALPHA.AT) and Piraeus Bank SA (TPEIR.AT)--have all been under pressure to reduce their dependence on ECB liquidity.

 

[Brisico]

Atene, 26 apr - Le banche
greche hanno ridotto i debiti verso la Banca centrale
europea nel mese di gennaio a 94,4 miliardi di euro. Lo
evidenziano i dati diffusi dalla banca centrale greca. Nel
mese di dicembre, le banche greche avevano preso in prestito
97,7 miliardi di euro come parte di una linea di credito di
emergenza che la Bce ha esteso alle banche greche e ad altre
banche in Europa per far fronte alla stretta della
liquidita'. Nel maggio dello scorso anno, il governo greco ha
di poco evitato il default con l'aiuto di un salvataggio da
110 miliardi di euro dall'Unione europea e dal Fondo
monetario internazionale, ma i suoi bond sono stati
declassati a "junk. Da allora, le banche greche sono state
effettivamente congelate sui mercati interbancari europei
tra i timori che un default del debito sovrano greco avrebbe
trascinato con se' anche le banche del Paese.

 

[tommy271]

Grecia, spread rendimento decennali a nuovo max storico 1.205 pb

martedì 26 aprile 2011 10:37


LONDRA, 26 aprile (Reuters) - Il premio chiesto dagli investitori per detenere titoli greci a 10 anni piuttosto che tedeschi si è ulteriomente allargato stamane a un nuovo massimo dall'introduzione dell'euro.
Lo spread è salito fino a 1.205 punti base secondo dati TradeWeb GR10YT=TWEB dalla chiusura di giovedì a 1.183 punti base.
"Non vedo ragioni per i quali lo spread debba restringersi, sebbene i volumi siano molto contenuti" dice un dealer. "L'unico eventuale acquirente di titoli greci dovrebbe essere la Bce .. che invece si limita a dire che il tema della ristrutturazione del debito è escluso e ciò continua a provocare pressioni sui titoli".
Parallelamente il costo per assicurarsi dal caso di default del debito greco a 5 anni è salito a 1.340 punti base, in rialzo di 37 pb dalla chiusura a New York di ieri, secondo dati Markit. Ciò significa che costa 1.340.000 euro per assicurarsi 10 milioni di euro di debito greco dal rischio di default.

***

Spagna colloca in asta titoli brevi,forte domanda,tassi salgono

martedì 26 aprile 2011 10:54



MADRID, 26 aprile (Reuters) - Il Tesoro spagnolo ha assegnato in asta titoli di Stato a 3 e 6 mesi per un ammontare complessivo di 1,969 miliardi di euro, riscontrando una forte domanda sebbene con rendimenti al rialzo.
La scadenza a tre mesi è stata collocata per 1,163 miliardi di euro a un tasso medio di 1,371% dallo 0,899% dell'asta precedente e con un rapporto tra domanda e offerta è pari a 4,4 da 4,3 precedente.
La scadenza a 6 mesi è stata collocata per 806 milioni a un rendimento dell'1,867% da 1,361% e con un bid-to-cover di 7,1% da 7,7% dell'asta precedente.

 

[tommy271]

Eurostat says Greece 2010 deficit hits 10.5 percent of GDP, above 9.6 percent forecast





By Associated Press, Tuesday, April 26, 5:01 AM


BRUSSELS — Eurostat says Greece 2010 deficit hits 10.5 percent of GDP, above 9.6 percent forecast.


***
Come da previsione.

 

[tommy271]

Greece 2010 deficit hits 10.5 percent of GDP
(AP)



BRUSSELS (AP) — The EU's statistics agency says Greece's government deficit hit 10.5 percent of economic output last year, significantly above the 9.6 percent forecast in the fall.
Eurostat said Tuesday that the country's debt swelled to 142.8 percent of gross domestic product, the highest in the eurozone and above the 140.2 percent the EU's executive Commission had predicted.
Greece had to be saved from bankruptcy with euro110 billion ($160 billion) in rescue loans last May but continues to struggle to raise revenue as its economy shrinks.
The 17 countries that use the euro had an average deficit of 6 percent last year.
Ireland's deficit reached a record 32.4 percent of GDP because of expensive bank bailouts, while euro newcomer Estonia managed to squeeze out a 0.1 percent surplus.

 

[tommy271]

G.B.: Eurostat; deficit 2010 al 10,4% del Pil, debito/Pil all'80%


***

Ue: Eurostat, rapporto debito/Pil 2010 all'80%

***

Ue: Eurostat, deficit 2010 al 6,4% del Pil

 

[tommy271]

Greece's Budget Deficit Higher Than Expected



By MATTHEW DALTON And LAURENCE NORMAN

BRUSSELS—Greece's budget deficit in 2010 was 10.5% of gross domestic product, significantly higher than forecast by either the Greek government or the European Union authorities, Eurostat, the EU's official statistics agency, said Tuesday.
The new deficit figure will add further pressure on Greece to cut its deficit this year to meet targets set under the rescue program overseen by the EU and the International Monetary Fund. The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, said in February that it expected Greece's deficit to be 9.6% of GDP in 2010 and 7.6% by the end of this year.
Eurostat also raised its estimate for Greece's 2008 budget deficit to 9.8% of GDP from 9.4%. Greece's total government debt was 142.8% of GDP at the end of 2010, the highest level in the EU, Eurostat said.
Portugal's budget deficit was 9.1% in 2010, Eurostat said. The Portuguese government, which is negotiating a rescue loan with the EU and the IMF, revised its 2010 deficit over the weekend to 9.1%, from its previous estimate of 8.6%.
Ireland, another recipient of rescue loans from the EU and the IMF, had a budget deficit of 32.4% of GDP, Eurostat said. The commission in February expected Ireland's 2010 deficit to be 32% of GDP.
Spain's deficit was 9.2%, Eurostat said, meeting the target the Spanish government announced last month.

(The Wall Street Journal)

 

[tommy271]

Credit-Default Swaps on Greek, Portuguese Government Bonds Jump to Records

By Abigail Moses - Apr 26, 2011 10:50 AM GMT+0200 Tue Apr 26 08:50:26 GMT 2011

The cost of insuring debt sold by Greece and Portugal rose to records, according to traders of credit-default swaps.
Contracts on Greece jumped 13 basis points from April 21 to 1,345 basis points, signaling a 66 percent chance of default within five years, according to CMA. Portugal climbed 6 basis points to 666.
That helped push the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of swaps on 15 governments up by 4.5 basis points to 201, the highest since January. The gauge is up from 157.5 basis points April 8, the lowest in five months.
Contracts on Italy increased 1 basis point to 157 and Spain rose 1.5 to 254, while Ireland declined 5 basis points to 655, CMA prices show. An increase signals deterioration in perceptions of credit quality; a decline, the opposite.
The Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to the senior debt of 25 banks and insurers rose 1 basis point to 136, and the subordinated index increased 3 to 245, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 40 companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings rose 1.5 basis points to 366 and the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings was 0.25 higher at 99.25, JPMorgan prices show.
A basis point on a credit-default swap protecting 10 million euros ($14.6 million) of debt from default for five years is equivalent to 1,000 euros a year. Contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements.



(Bloomberg)