Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 1

[tommy271]

Stock, sommariamente è quello che pensiamo anche noi.
Contrariamente a quanto scritto, dobbiamo però rilevare che il retail è poco influente. Ad avere in portafoglio il debito sono banche ed istituzionali che potrebbero benissimo accettare di confrontarsi su questa ipotesi.
Al "Parco Buoi" la scommessa di non aderire.

 

[tommy271]

Tactical Redeployment With A Smaller Package-Loan For Athens



The European Working Group – a subcommittee of Economic and Financial Committee- convenes on Tuesday in Brussels to examine a proposal on principle to address the debt crisis in Greece.

This proposal, which has been prepared by a special committee of technocrats, a “Task Force” set up for the Greek issue, is developing to mixed pattern including:

-a loan of about €30-35b combined with

-a package of voluntary holding of Greek government bonds, maturing in the period 2012-2013, a variation of the initiative of Vienna, which had been applied to Eastern European countries a few years ago,

-increasing revenues in 2011-2012 through the privatization package, which should be finalized within the week.

It is not certain, however, that these procedures would be completed in time in order to convene an extraordinary meeting of Eurogroup next Monday for the final decisions to be approved at the EU Summit in June.

Diplomatic sources in Brussels note that despite the efforts, there is a possibility that such a solution might not be ready for the Summit in June.

Meanwhile, EU seems to revise the tactics of intense pressure with public statements towards Greece, as the results are evaluated positive only partially.

Sources told Capital.gr that the policy to exercise public pressures was intended to push Greek opposition parties to a sentiment of consensus and create an environment of market acceptance for a program of holding Greek bonds, maturing in 2012-2013 under European supervision and guarantee.

In the first part, the pressure has failed following the rejection of an agreement by the opposition, while in the second part there is a cautious but positive response, according to sources.

However, these tactics caused great tension in both Greek banks through the withdrawing of deposits by small savers in particular, and the political system as the social reactions swell, leading German reporters to speak of pre-revolutionary situation.

This climate is causing growing concern in Brussels and the EU has informed the other member states.

Diplomatic sources said that the tactics had reached dangerous situations and redeployment with reassuring statements should be expected to defuse the tension in both the markets and the Greek society.

In this context, both the Greek government and the IMF prejudice on smooth developments and not a negative review by the troika .

(capital.gr)

***
Da leggere: rumors.

 

[tommy271]

UPDATE 2-ECB's Bini Smaghi warns against default repercussions






Mon May 30, 2011 4:56am EDT

* Says ECB against all forms of debt restructuring
* Greek restructuring would create market chaos
* ECB may not take support wind down decision in June
(Adds detail on ECB exit plans, quotes, detail)


LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - The idea that a Greek debt restructuring could be carried out in an orderly way is a "fairytale", European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said in an interview published on Monday.
"If you look at financial markets, every time there is mention of a word like 'restructuring' or 'soft restructuring' they go crazy -- which proves that this could not happen in an orderly way, in this environment at least," Bini Smaghi told the Financial Times.
He also warned against a debt 'reprofiling', or voluntary extension of Greek bond maturities, saying it would be hard to get investors to agree to such a deal without the use of force.
"If you are a rational agent, you would probably say No. But you might be induced to accept if the government would tell you that unless you accept the next offer will be a 50 percent haircut -- it would threaten you.
"Then it is not voluntary but a forced restructuring, which would trigger a series of credit events, CDS payments, so it is in all respects a restructuring."
In the current environment, the ECB may also have to delay a decision, expected at its June 9 meeting, on whether to extend guarantees to provide banks with unlimited one-week, one-month and three-month liquidity beyond mid-July.
"I am not sure if we will have sufficient data to take a decision in June," Bini Smaghi said, suggesting the bank may make a last minute decision in its July 7 meeting.
Greece took a 110 billion euro ($157.5 billion) rescue package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund, but has since fallen short on its deficit reduction commitments, heightening the risk of a default on its 327 billion euro debt -- equivalent to 150 percent of its economic output.
The ECB has been a consistent opponent of restructuring and Bini Smaghi ratcheted up the rhetoric once again, saying "a debt restructuring, or exiting the euro, would be like the death penalty -- which we have abolished in the European Union".
He added: "If Greece defaulted, the Greek banking system would collapse. It would then need a huge recapitalisation -- but where would the money come from?"

ECB IMPACT


ECB rules that ban it from lending to insolvent banks would also mean it had to shut Greece's banks out of its lending operations, Bini Smaghi said.
A default would leave the central bank nursing losses on the Greek government bonds bought over the past year as emergency support for Athens, though the pain would be worse for euro zone taxpayers.
The ECB bought 6 billion euros of the 77 billion euros of Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds bought under its purchase programme. The remaining 71 billion was bought by national euro zone central banks, institutions that governments would have to recapitalise if they were hit with default losses.
The Italian said Greece could reduce its debt by selling assets and changing its tax and expenditure systems. "If you look at the balance sheet of Greece, it is not insolvent," he said.
Officials from the European Union and International Monetary Fund are expected to deliver their verdict this week on Greece's efforts to bring its budget deficit under control.



***
Un primo dato ufficiale sugli acquisti effettuati da BCE e banche centrali.

 

[tommy271]

Greece set for outside intervention in economy, says FT



Newspaper reports that Athens will have to surrender authority on tax collection, sell-offs

The Financial Times reported on Monday that European leaders are negotiating a deal that would lead to unprecedented outside intervention in the Greek economy, including international involvement in tax collection and privatisation of state assets, in exchange for new bail-out loans for Athens.
“People involved in the talks said the package would also include incentives for private holders of Greek debt voluntarily to extend Athens’ repayment schedule, as well as another round of austerity measures,” claimed the newspaper without naming its sources.
There is doubt that Greece will be able to return to the financial markets to raise money in March as foreseen in the loan memorandum it signed last year, which means that the IMF would be forbidden from distributing any additional funds. Without the IMF funds, eurozone governments would either be forced to fill the gap or Athens could default.
To ensure the IMF’s continued involvement, a new loan deal would have to be reached by a meeting of EU finance minister on June 20. Sources suggested that an emergency meeting of eurozone finance minister could take place on June 6.
Greece is thought to need up to 70 billion euros on top of the 110 billion it is already due to receive by the end of 2013. But European officials are hoping that about half of the extra funding will come from the sale of state assets and the extension of maturities for bonds held by private investors.
The European Central Bank is opposed to any restructuring of Greek debt that could be considered a “credit event” – a change in terms that could technically be ruled a default – but, according to the FT, a senior European official involved in the talks said ECB objections could be overcome if the rescheduling was structured properly.
But in an interview with the newspaper, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, and ECB executive board member, said that talk about Greece reneging on debt commitments “has been very damaging” and suggests “that investing in the euro area is unsafe.” Even for a country that flouted eurozone fiscal rules for a decade, “a debt restructuring, or exiting the euro, would be like the death penalty – which we have abolished in the European Union”, he says.
The ECB has bought about €45bn in Greek government bonds in the past year but Bini Smaghi says the impact of a default would fall largely on eurozone national central banks, rather than the ECB, and ultimately on taxpayers. “We care about taxpayers’ money and this is why we warn against restructuring. We seem to be the only ones,” he says.
Bini Smaghi added that a Greek restructuring would be nothing like those in Latin America in the 1980s. The Greek situation is “totally different”, he says. An “orderly” debt restructuring is “a fairytale”.






ekathimerini.com , Monday May 30, 2011 (11:05)

***
Interessante, da leggere.
Gli acquisti di GGB sono a 45 MLD.

 

[tommy271]

Spread un pò movimentati nell'ultima oretta: saliti sino a 1401 pb. sono poi ridiscesi improvvisamente a 1387 pb.
Illiquidità e speculazione fanno il resto.

 

[lorixnt2]

Un arretramento delle autorità nazional/statuali in favore di una struttura federale più forte potrebbe essere ottimo, razionale, coerente e del tutto auspicabile anche e soprattutto in senso amministrativo/fiscale.
Certo, in questo modo, l'impressione che ci si arrivi molto male può sorgere facilmente. Il Jornal de negocios sulla sponda lusitana aveva indetto un doppio poll relativo ai due principali partiti con la possibilità di porre delle domande ad entrambi da parte dei forumers. Fatta eccezione per un singolo post sarcastico
l'iniziativa è andata completamente deserta. Staremo a vedere come sempre Tommy

 

[tommy271]

Greece-Troika Negotiations Reach The Final Stage



The Ministry of Finance meet with the Troika top officials in order to take decisions as soon as possible for the medium-term package of €78.4b.

The deadline is set for the end of the month, so that the review of Greece’s performance would be sent to the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund within the week. However, there are several issues pending regarding the form of the privatization mechanism and additional measures to shrink the state deficit of €28.4b.

The negotiations continued over the weekend in the building which is located in the Syntagma (Constitution) Square, the centre of demonstrations by “indignant people”. Sources note that a great part of the medium-term plan is finalized and the negotiations focus on three points.

-some of the measures for 2011, whose performance is considered doubtful, and is expected to cause strong reactions. These include tax measure that burden the working classes, such as mass transfer of product from 13% to 23% VAT, increasing of tax on heating oil and natural gas. Alternatively, fewer products would be included in the 23% VAT, or even the cancelation of the measure is examined.

However, the troika doubts government’s ability to restraint the costs so much that the tax measures would be unnecessary.

-the form of privatization package, reassurances and supervision by international lenders. The package of privatization should be enhanced with many new companies and real estate assets to reach the amount of €50b. The question is whether the government would proceed with announcements in order to be committed.

Additionally, the two sides should agree on the form that the fund-commission that would implement privatizations. Whether it would be supervised by the Greek government or it would be an independent body and particularly whether the international lenders would intervene decisively or provide only the “technical support”, as government officials repeat. It also remains to be clarified what would be offered in exchange for new loan.

-the format of the new package. Whether it would be an autonomous law or it would be incorporated into the revised Memorandum of Understanding .

(capital.gr)

 

[tommy271]

ECB official: New Greek aid under study


FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — A top European Central Bank official says Greece could get additional help from a raft of measures, including selling government property, and some euro20 billion ($28 billion) more from other euro countries.
Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, a member of the ECB's executive board, is quoted by the Financial Times as saying Greece needs between euro60 billion and euro70 billion through next year.
He says the gap could be filled through privatizations and some "short-term issuance" of debt as well as more help from the International Monetary Fund and other euro countries.
Greece already got a rescue package last year worth euro110 billion from the eurozone and the IMF. But its economy continues to deteriorate and the government says it won't be able to tap financial markets as planned next year.

 

[tommy271]

The Haircut War

Tensions Worsen Between Berlin and European Central Bank


The Haircut War: Tensions Worsen Between Berlin and European Central Bank - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

 

[tommy271]

Greek debt report to come this week -German finmin






BERLIN | Mon May 30, 2011 5:57am EDT

BERLIN May 30 (Reuters) - The progress report on Greece's debt sustainability submitted by the so-called Troika will likely be presented by the end of this week, "possibly a bit later", a spokesman for the German finance ministry said on Monday.
Markets are anxiously awaiting the report from the Troika -- consisting of the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund for a signal of whether Greece receives the next tranche of its bailout.