tommy271
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tommy271
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Bank of Greece: Environmental, Economic Αnd Social Impacts Of Climate Change
The cost of climate change for the Greek economy would be very high, if there would be no action to deal with it, said the Bank of Greece in a report on the effects of climate change in the country.
Should climate change evolve at the pace projected until 2050 and 2100 without any global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the cumulative cost for the Greek economy over the period extending till 2100 would amount to €701 billion, i.e. three times Greece’s current annual GDP, according to the Bank of Greece.
In February 2009, on the initiative of the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Mr. George A. Provopoulos, a Committee of distinguished scientists was set up with the task of preparing a study on the environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change in Greece. Today saw the publication of the Committee’s Report, the fruit of 26 months of research, and the presentation of its findings at a special event at the Athens Concert Hall (Megaron).
The event started with an address by the Prime Minister, Mr. George A. Papandreou. The Report was presented by Mr. Christos Zerefos, member of the Academy of Athens and Coordinator of the Study Committee. Apart from the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Mr. George Provopoulos, other speakers included Ms. Tina Birbili, Minister of Environment, Energy and Climate Change, and Mr. Stavros Dimas, Vice President of the New Democracy Party and former European Union Commissioner for the Environment. The event was coordinated by journalist Nikos Hadjinikolaou.
This Report represents a first attempt at a comprehensive study of the impact of climate change for Greece – in particular of the cost of climate change that would be borne by the Greek economy, the cost of implementing adaptation measures, as well the cost of moving to a low-emissions economy, in the context of the global effort to mitigate climate change. For the first time, this project brought together teams from different scientific disciplines; the teams included physicists of the atmosphere, climatologists and geophysicists, experts in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, as well as experts in water resources, tourism, the built environment and energy, not to mention economists and sociologists.
Τhe study produced climate projections for Greece, in a detailed geographic breakdown up to the year 2100. These data are available to the research community. A series of sectoral studies analysed the biophysical impact of the anthropogenic (human-induced) component of climate change and estimated the costs of climate change, disaggregated by sector, across time horizons extending to 2050 and 2100. The findings of the sectoral studies were then incorporated into a general equilibrium model of the Greek economy, in order to estimate the overall cost of climate change in terms of changes in GDP, social welfare and sectoral output. The sectoral studies also helped define the scope for adaptation to climate change through preventive measures. The next step was to assess the total cost for the Greek economy of adaptation measures, as well as the cost savings that can be achieved thanks to these measures, given that the damage from climate change would be reduced.
The study made climate change projections for the 13 regions into which Greece was divided on the basis of climatic and geographic criteria, while a database and model simulations were developed for the main scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the climate simulations, it is projected that by the end of the 21st century air temperature will rise considerably, while precipitation countrywide will decrease. At the same time, the intensity of heat waves and the duration of drought spells will drastically increase, resulting, among other things, in a substantially higher risk of forest fires. These changes are expected to have a considerable impact not only on the local ecosystems, but also on a number of fields and aspects of human activity.
Based on the climate simulations, climate change risk and impact assessments were made with regard to water reserves, the mean sea level, fisheries and aquaculture, agriculture and agricultural land, forests and forest habitats, biodiversity and ecosystems, tourism, the built environment, transportation, health and mining. The individual studies present quantified estimates of projected environmental and economic impacts. These estimates could serve as valuable input in the designing of adaptation policies.
Climate change will have a considerable negative impact on many sectors in Greece. Agriculture, forestry, fisheries, tourism, transportation, coastal activities and the built environment in urban centres will all be affected by the rise in air temperature, drought, extreme weather events and the rise in sea level. According to the Report, this impact will lead to lower productivity, loss of capital and additional expenditure for damage repair. Biodiversity, ecosystems in Greece and human health will be negatively affected.
The study estimated that, under a scenario of no action in Greece and at the global level, the cost of climate change for the Greek economy would be very high. Should climate change evolve at the pace projected until 2050 and 2100 without any global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the cumulative cost for the Greek economy over the period extending till 2100 would amount to €701 billion, i.e. three times Greece’s current annual GDP.
Preventing or mitigating climate change (limiting the increase in air temperature to 2° C) would call for a steady effort to drastically reduce emissions both in Greece and at the global level from now till 2050 and then till 2100. Studies were carried out in depth to determine how Greece could sharply cut its emissions from fossil fuel combustion as well as from industrial and agricultural processes. Considerable effort will be required in the areas of energy conservation, development of renewable energy sources (RES) and the diffusion of new, low-carbon, technologies in all sectors, including transportation. The study estimated that the measures for drastic emission cuts would cost the Greek economy a cumulative total of €113 billion till 2050 or €142 billion till 2100, i.e. more than half of current annual GDP. The benefits, however, would be manifold, considering that the mitigation of climate change, if emission reductions are globally achieved, would reduce the cost of damage from climate change by nearly 60% for the Greek economy (to €294 billion cumulatively till 2100, compared with €701 billion if no action is taken).
Finally, the cost of adaptation to climate change was estimated; this cost corresponds to a long-term investment programme in several sectors to ensure protection from climate change-induced damage. Total investment plus other expenditures required till 2100 would come to €67 billion, i.e. the equivalent of about one third of current annual GDP. This investment – in infrastructure projects in agriculture, transportation, forestry, tourism, in coastal areas as well as in the built environment of urban areas – does not eliminate climate change nor all damage from it, but it does downsize the latter significantly. It was estimated that investment in adaptation measures would cut the cost of damage from climate change by almost 30% (to a cumulative €510 billion by 2100, compared with €701 billion if no action is taken), a cost saving roughly equivalent to current annual GDP. The adaptation policy is of a preventive nature and in any event is deemed advisable in view of the high uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of global efforts to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The cost-benefit analysis showed that the policy of mitigation was clearly a better option than inaction, while the policy of adaptation was also found to be of benefit. The study thus makes a clear case for taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the targets set by the European Union; it also points out the urgent need for work to begin on the formulation of a long-term strategy for adaptation measures. Considering that the occurrence of extreme climate events in the future cannot be excluded, policies for mitigation and adaptation should be viewed as contingency measures against such an eventuality; as such, they are advisable irrespective of the results of the cost-benefit analysis.
At first glance, the current adverse economic conjuncture appears to constrain the financing of mitigation and adaptation policies. To the extent, however, that these policies can be exploited as an opportunity for new lines of economic activity and for growth, they can be part of the strategy for a faster exit from the crisis and for setting up a new growth model. In other words, the adoption of mitigation and adaptation policies, rather than being hampered by the grave economic problem faced by Greece today, may actually contribute to its solution.
The social dimensions of climate change impact deserve to be explored further, especially as regards possible increases in poverty and migration, since the effects of climate change and of the policies dealing with it will be most strongly felt by the lower income population groups; these groups lack the necessary resources to address the problems caused by climate change and to finance measures for emission abatement and adaptation. climate change and to finance measures for emission abatement and adaptation.
(capital.gr)
The cost of climate change for the Greek economy would be very high, if there would be no action to deal with it, said the Bank of Greece in a report on the effects of climate change in the country.
Should climate change evolve at the pace projected until 2050 and 2100 without any global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the cumulative cost for the Greek economy over the period extending till 2100 would amount to €701 billion, i.e. three times Greece’s current annual GDP, according to the Bank of Greece.
In February 2009, on the initiative of the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Mr. George A. Provopoulos, a Committee of distinguished scientists was set up with the task of preparing a study on the environmental, economic and social impacts of climate change in Greece. Today saw the publication of the Committee’s Report, the fruit of 26 months of research, and the presentation of its findings at a special event at the Athens Concert Hall (Megaron).
The event started with an address by the Prime Minister, Mr. George A. Papandreou. The Report was presented by Mr. Christos Zerefos, member of the Academy of Athens and Coordinator of the Study Committee. Apart from the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Mr. George Provopoulos, other speakers included Ms. Tina Birbili, Minister of Environment, Energy and Climate Change, and Mr. Stavros Dimas, Vice President of the New Democracy Party and former European Union Commissioner for the Environment. The event was coordinated by journalist Nikos Hadjinikolaou.
This Report represents a first attempt at a comprehensive study of the impact of climate change for Greece – in particular of the cost of climate change that would be borne by the Greek economy, the cost of implementing adaptation measures, as well the cost of moving to a low-emissions economy, in the context of the global effort to mitigate climate change. For the first time, this project brought together teams from different scientific disciplines; the teams included physicists of the atmosphere, climatologists and geophysicists, experts in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, as well as experts in water resources, tourism, the built environment and energy, not to mention economists and sociologists.
Τhe study produced climate projections for Greece, in a detailed geographic breakdown up to the year 2100. These data are available to the research community. A series of sectoral studies analysed the biophysical impact of the anthropogenic (human-induced) component of climate change and estimated the costs of climate change, disaggregated by sector, across time horizons extending to 2050 and 2100. The findings of the sectoral studies were then incorporated into a general equilibrium model of the Greek economy, in order to estimate the overall cost of climate change in terms of changes in GDP, social welfare and sectoral output. The sectoral studies also helped define the scope for adaptation to climate change through preventive measures. The next step was to assess the total cost for the Greek economy of adaptation measures, as well as the cost savings that can be achieved thanks to these measures, given that the damage from climate change would be reduced.
The study made climate change projections for the 13 regions into which Greece was divided on the basis of climatic and geographic criteria, while a database and model simulations were developed for the main scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. According to the climate simulations, it is projected that by the end of the 21st century air temperature will rise considerably, while precipitation countrywide will decrease. At the same time, the intensity of heat waves and the duration of drought spells will drastically increase, resulting, among other things, in a substantially higher risk of forest fires. These changes are expected to have a considerable impact not only on the local ecosystems, but also on a number of fields and aspects of human activity.
Based on the climate simulations, climate change risk and impact assessments were made with regard to water reserves, the mean sea level, fisheries and aquaculture, agriculture and agricultural land, forests and forest habitats, biodiversity and ecosystems, tourism, the built environment, transportation, health and mining. The individual studies present quantified estimates of projected environmental and economic impacts. These estimates could serve as valuable input in the designing of adaptation policies.
Climate change will have a considerable negative impact on many sectors in Greece. Agriculture, forestry, fisheries, tourism, transportation, coastal activities and the built environment in urban centres will all be affected by the rise in air temperature, drought, extreme weather events and the rise in sea level. According to the Report, this impact will lead to lower productivity, loss of capital and additional expenditure for damage repair. Biodiversity, ecosystems in Greece and human health will be negatively affected.
The study estimated that, under a scenario of no action in Greece and at the global level, the cost of climate change for the Greek economy would be very high. Should climate change evolve at the pace projected until 2050 and 2100 without any global effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the cumulative cost for the Greek economy over the period extending till 2100 would amount to €701 billion, i.e. three times Greece’s current annual GDP.
Preventing or mitigating climate change (limiting the increase in air temperature to 2° C) would call for a steady effort to drastically reduce emissions both in Greece and at the global level from now till 2050 and then till 2100. Studies were carried out in depth to determine how Greece could sharply cut its emissions from fossil fuel combustion as well as from industrial and agricultural processes. Considerable effort will be required in the areas of energy conservation, development of renewable energy sources (RES) and the diffusion of new, low-carbon, technologies in all sectors, including transportation. The study estimated that the measures for drastic emission cuts would cost the Greek economy a cumulative total of €113 billion till 2050 or €142 billion till 2100, i.e. more than half of current annual GDP. The benefits, however, would be manifold, considering that the mitigation of climate change, if emission reductions are globally achieved, would reduce the cost of damage from climate change by nearly 60% for the Greek economy (to €294 billion cumulatively till 2100, compared with €701 billion if no action is taken).
Finally, the cost of adaptation to climate change was estimated; this cost corresponds to a long-term investment programme in several sectors to ensure protection from climate change-induced damage. Total investment plus other expenditures required till 2100 would come to €67 billion, i.e. the equivalent of about one third of current annual GDP. This investment – in infrastructure projects in agriculture, transportation, forestry, tourism, in coastal areas as well as in the built environment of urban areas – does not eliminate climate change nor all damage from it, but it does downsize the latter significantly. It was estimated that investment in adaptation measures would cut the cost of damage from climate change by almost 30% (to a cumulative €510 billion by 2100, compared with €701 billion if no action is taken), a cost saving roughly equivalent to current annual GDP. The adaptation policy is of a preventive nature and in any event is deemed advisable in view of the high uncertainty surrounding the effectiveness of global efforts to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The cost-benefit analysis showed that the policy of mitigation was clearly a better option than inaction, while the policy of adaptation was also found to be of benefit. The study thus makes a clear case for taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with the targets set by the European Union; it also points out the urgent need for work to begin on the formulation of a long-term strategy for adaptation measures. Considering that the occurrence of extreme climate events in the future cannot be excluded, policies for mitigation and adaptation should be viewed as contingency measures against such an eventuality; as such, they are advisable irrespective of the results of the cost-benefit analysis.
At first glance, the current adverse economic conjuncture appears to constrain the financing of mitigation and adaptation policies. To the extent, however, that these policies can be exploited as an opportunity for new lines of economic activity and for growth, they can be part of the strategy for a faster exit from the crisis and for setting up a new growth model. In other words, the adoption of mitigation and adaptation policies, rather than being hampered by the grave economic problem faced by Greece today, may actually contribute to its solution.
The social dimensions of climate change impact deserve to be explored further, especially as regards possible increases in poverty and migration, since the effects of climate change and of the policies dealing with it will be most strongly felt by the lower income population groups; these groups lack the necessary resources to address the problems caused by climate change and to finance measures for emission abatement and adaptation. climate change and to finance measures for emission abatement and adaptation.
(capital.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
Greece-Troika Negotiations Aim On Consensus
Revenue measures of the med-term package were finalized on Tuesday, but the negotiations between the Greek government and the troika continue, regarding the collateral of the aid loan and the critical institutional changes.
The objective is to reach to an agreement no later than Friday, finalizing two documents: the €78.4b medium-term program, which would be passed by the Cabinet, and the revised text of the Memorandum of Understanding that will be sent to Brussels.
The negotiations focus on the content of these very crucial documents, which include the measures, institutional interventions, privatization schedule and collateral for the release of next loan instalments. Sources note that each chapter of the documents is sent for correction and approval to the competent ministers. In case of differences, the physical presence of the minister may occur, as it happened on Tuesday with the Labour Minister Luka Katseli.
Sources indicate that there are several obscure points in the content of the new Memoranda. However, it seems the list of privatizations worth €50b and measures of €28.4b have been finalized.
There is a detailed report on the performance of the coming three years, but it may change until it is sent to the House, with the connivance of the troika, aiming on political consensus. Government officials denied the news of reduced VAT rates, but the truth lies somewhere in the middle, according to sources.
According to the most likely scenario, there will be no tax reduction. However, officials don’t rule out an announcement of reduction in tax rates, even by 2012 or later.
Sources state that the reduction in tax exemption cap may be withdrawn, including pensioners or even all stipendiary. However, the equation of tax rate in fuel and heating oil will be applied.
The amounts above will be saved through large cost cuttings (social and pharmaceutical benefits, allowances etc).
(capital.gr)
Revenue measures of the med-term package were finalized on Tuesday, but the negotiations between the Greek government and the troika continue, regarding the collateral of the aid loan and the critical institutional changes.
The objective is to reach to an agreement no later than Friday, finalizing two documents: the €78.4b medium-term program, which would be passed by the Cabinet, and the revised text of the Memorandum of Understanding that will be sent to Brussels.
The negotiations focus on the content of these very crucial documents, which include the measures, institutional interventions, privatization schedule and collateral for the release of next loan instalments. Sources note that each chapter of the documents is sent for correction and approval to the competent ministers. In case of differences, the physical presence of the minister may occur, as it happened on Tuesday with the Labour Minister Luka Katseli.
Sources indicate that there are several obscure points in the content of the new Memoranda. However, it seems the list of privatizations worth €50b and measures of €28.4b have been finalized.
There is a detailed report on the performance of the coming three years, but it may change until it is sent to the House, with the connivance of the troika, aiming on political consensus. Government officials denied the news of reduced VAT rates, but the truth lies somewhere in the middle, according to sources.
According to the most likely scenario, there will be no tax reduction. However, officials don’t rule out an announcement of reduction in tax rates, even by 2012 or later.
Sources state that the reduction in tax exemption cap may be withdrawn, including pensioners or even all stipendiary. However, the equation of tax rate in fuel and heating oil will be applied.
The amounts above will be saved through large cost cuttings (social and pharmaceutical benefits, allowances etc).
(capital.gr)
tommy271
Forumer storico
UPDATE: EU: 'Work To be Done' On Greek Privatization Details
(Adds Rehn spokesman's comments on privatization details.)
By Frances Robinson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--The European Union is willing to consider additional aid for Greece, although this depends on the country's execution of reforms in line with the agreements reached for the current bailout package, an EU commission spokesman said Wednesday.
"There is no major disagreement, but there is work to be done" on Greece completing privatization details and on 2011 targets, a spokesman for the EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters. "There are no major obstacles" to completing the troika review in coming days, he added.
The so-called troika of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and European Commission is due to report back from Athens later this week on Greece's compliance with previously agreed fiscal and budgetary targets.
He said earlier today that there are various ways to support the trouble Aegean country.
"We are ready to discuss further ways to support Greece, provided of course the Greek government fully implements the program," he told Dow Jones Newswires.
German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported Wednesday that a new EUR60-70 billion Greek aid plan was taking shape, without citing sources.
The spokesman declined to comment on the newspaper's report that the European Financial Stability Facility would provide the European part of a new EU-IMF bailout program for Greece.
Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said last week Greece might be denied the next tranche of current financial aid if an audit of its budget accounting shows that the country cannot guarantee financing for the next 12 months.
(Adds Rehn spokesman's comments on privatization details.)
By Frances Robinson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--The European Union is willing to consider additional aid for Greece, although this depends on the country's execution of reforms in line with the agreements reached for the current bailout package, an EU commission spokesman said Wednesday.
"There is no major disagreement, but there is work to be done" on Greece completing privatization details and on 2011 targets, a spokesman for the EU economic and monetary affairs commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters. "There are no major obstacles" to completing the troika review in coming days, he added.
The so-called troika of the European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and European Commission is due to report back from Athens later this week on Greece's compliance with previously agreed fiscal and budgetary targets.
He said earlier today that there are various ways to support the trouble Aegean country.
"We are ready to discuss further ways to support Greece, provided of course the Greek government fully implements the program," he told Dow Jones Newswires.
German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported Wednesday that a new EUR60-70 billion Greek aid plan was taking shape, without citing sources.
The spokesman declined to comment on the newspaper's report that the European Financial Stability Facility would provide the European part of a new EU-IMF bailout program for Greece.
Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker said last week Greece might be denied the next tranche of current financial aid if an audit of its budget accounting shows that the country cannot guarantee financing for the next 12 months.
EDESMO
GGB: Est!, Est?, Est.....
a dexia nulla di rilevante a parte il downgrade di 10/15 giorni fa ed il fatto che si libereranno di 3,6 miliardi di asset tossici, cosa che migliora dexia ...
poi se vai a vedere dexia crediop ed in particolare quelle collocate tutte al retail da intesa, trovi che negli ultimi giorni le regalano,
vuoi per la lettera/telefonata informativa del down fatta da intesa ai suoi 40/50.000 clienti, vuoi per la sospensione dell'azione dexia venerdi durante la mattinata per annunciare la vendita del tossico ecc.. ecc .. ecc ...
certo, che guarda caso, il MM di IMI non ri-comprerebbe a sconto 10 e passa milioni al giorno se dexia crediop collocata da intesa fosse realmente al collasso, se vai a vedere la febbraio 13
quotava 90, 91, 92
ieri è scesa fino a 85,60 e il MM raccoglieva 100k alla volta abbassandosi sempre di qualche tick
oggi ha deciso che la discesa è finita ed ha aperto con 1 milione a 85,95 per salire poi con i successivi milioni fino ad 86,65 ....
e la storia continua ....
Ultima modifica:
Nobody's
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June 1 (Bloomberg) -- Greece’s next aid package may include incentives for bondholders to roll over maturing debt without triggering a credit-rating downgrade that would roil Europe’s banking system, two people with knowledge of the talks said.
Investors may be offered preferred status, higher coupon payments or collateral as inducements to buy bonds replacing Greek debt maturing between 2012 and 2014, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are in progress.
The sweeteners would be part of a revised aid package, to be decided by the end of June, amounting to a voluntary extension of Greece’s debt maturities that aims to skirt the technical definition of default, the people said.
Investors may be offered preferred status, higher coupon payments or collateral as inducements to buy bonds replacing Greek debt maturing between 2012 and 2014, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are in progress.
The sweeteners would be part of a revised aid package, to be decided by the end of June, amounting to a voluntary extension of Greece’s debt maturities that aims to skirt the technical definition of default, the people said.
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