Samaras Vies With Papandreou as Amherst Men Contest Greece
                         September 07, 2011, 7:00 AM EDT                                                  
                                                                                By Maria Petrakis and Janet Lorin                     
                                              (Adds record yields, default swaps in 7th and 8th paragraphs.)
      Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- At Amherst College’s Pratt  Hall in 1970 and 1971, a handful of students from Greece spent  countless hours decrying the military junta ruling their country.
      George Papandreou, a bluejean-clad freshman whose  father as prime minister had founded the country’s Socialist Party,  would agree with Antonis Samaras, a sophomore living upstairs who  favored blue blazers, that the regime had to go. Friends since high  school in Athens, they were of one mind as they talked in the dormitory  and over pizza in nearby South Hadley.
      “Had there not been a junta, it’s possible George  and Antonis wouldn’t have forged the friendship that they did,” said  Philip Tsiaras, who lived in the dorm room next to Papandreou’s and is  now an international artist. “They would have their political lines  already drawn for them depending on who was in power in Greece.”
      Today, those political lines couldn’t be more  divisive. Papandreou, now prime minister, is guiding Greece through a  debt upheaval whose aftershocks have spread throughout the European  Union. Samaras, the leader of the political opposition, is trying to  block the premier’s agenda every step of the way. The two will provide  details of their economic agendas in the city of Thessaloniki over 10  days starting this weekend.
      Samaras has set his New Democracy Party against  both packages of austerity measures that the EU and international  lenders required in return for new loans, the creation of a bailout fund  and a bond-exchange and debt-buyback program. He hasn’t changed his  position even after political pressure from leaders such as German  Chancellor Angela Merkel.
                          No Compromises
      “He’s determined and stubborn,” said Theodore  Vardas, head of the Greek retail association SELPE, who has known  Samaras for 40 years. “When he believes something, it doesn’t change. He  doesn’t compromise.”
      Greek two-year notes extended a decline today  that pushed yields to a euro-era record of 53.27 percent. Bonds have  slumped this year, partly because politicians have struggled to agree on  a united front to fight the crisis. They lost 27 percent through Sept.  5, while German debt has returned 7.4 percent, according to indexes  compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts  Societies.
      The cost of insuring against default on Greek  government debt was near a record today at 2,650 basis points, up from  1,010 at the end of 2010, CMA data show. It signaled an 88 percent  chance of default in five years.
                     Fighting With Vehemence
      Samaras would need to embrace the spirit of  compromise should he ever come to power, according to George Karvounis, a  risk manager at the Federal Bank of the Middle East in Nicosia.
      “If he gained power and his principles were  wrong, the vehemence with which he fights for what he believes could  lead the country to the wrong path,” Karvounis said.
      Samaras’s stance hasn’t won him public favor.  When asked who was best suited to be prime minister, 32.8 percent of  respondents in a Kapa research survey chose Papandreou while 28.9  percent picked Samaras. More than 35 percent said neither. The poll,  published in To Vima newspaper, surveyed 1,023 people on Sept. 1 and had  a margin of error of 3.06 percentage points.
      “He continues missing opportunities to position  himself as a formidable leader of the opposition,” said Jens Bastian,  the Alpha Bank Fellow for Southeast Europe at St. Antony’s College at  the University of Oxford. He isn’t “the captain steering the ship of the  opposition parties in parliament,” Bastian said.
                          Athens College
      Like Papandreou, Samaras comes from a political  dynasty. He is the grandson of one parliament member and nephew of  another. His great-grandmother, Penelope Delta, a children’s writer,  committed suicide on the day in April 1941 that the Nazis entered  Athens.
      In addition to Amherst, he and Papandreou both  attended Athens College, an elite high school in Psychiko near the  capital. Other alumni include George’s father Andreas, himself a prime  minister in the 1980s and 1990s, and parliament member Kyriakos  Mitsotakis. The school was co-founded by one of Samaras’s  great-grandfathers.
      Samaras grew up among the well-connected families  of Athens, playing tennis and going to parties at private clubs, said  Lia Daniolou, a New Democracy party official who has known him since  their childhood days. He won the Greek Teen Tennis Championship at the  age of 17.
      “I could see he had the qualities of a  sportsman,” said Dinos Arcoumanis, who used to ride the school bus with  Samaras and is now deputy vice chancellor at City University London. “At  that critical age, what sports can do is give you self- confidence.”
                          Playing Tennis
      Samaras took his self-confidence and tennis  skills to Amherst in Massachusetts, where he distinguished himself, said  Walter Nicholson, who taught him in at least three economics classes.  The promising student later graduated magna cum laude with a major in  economics.
      “He had a very good forehand,” Nicholson said in a  phone interview, adding that they played four or five times a year. “He  was one of the most charming students I ever taught.”
      Samaras, 60, and Papandreou, 59, aren’t the only  leading Greek politicians who have attended Amherst. Also in the club is  Foreign Minister Stavros Lambrinidis, who graduated in 1984.
      The 190-year-old college of about 1,700 students  has produced such world leaders and notables as President Calvin  Coolidge (1895), Prince Albert of Monaco (1981) and Nobel laureate  Harold Varmus (1961).
      Papandreou went on to earn a master’s degree in  sociology from the London School of Economics in 1977 after graduating  from Amherst cum laude as an independent scholar. Samaras enrolled in  Harvard Business School in Boston.
                          Blazer-Wearing
      “It’s difficult to say who is better educated in  economics, but that’s not the issue,” said Arcoumanis. “You learn all  this in politics because politics and economics are two sides of the  same coin.”
      Marshall Toplansky, a Harvard classmate, recalled  that Samaras always wore the double-breasted blue blazer when he went  out in the 1970s, when few students were so dressed. Papandreou at  Amherst, by contrast, favored blue jeans and flannel shirts, and carried  a guitar, said Tsiaras, who remembers Samaras as “center-right.”
      Samaras “was very passionate about the issues he  was dealing with, no matter what the issue was,” said Toplansky, who now  lives in Irvine, California, and runs Wise Window, a technology  company. “He was very interested in Greece and the future of Greece, and  in wanting to go back and make a difference.”
                           Greek Treats
      At a dinner with classmates at a Greek restaurant  near Harvard Square, Samaras made sure everyone knew what dishes they  were eating and checked to see that they enjoyed the food, Toplansky  said. If not, he ordered replacement dishes, he said.
      The year after Samaras graduated from Harvard in  1976, he was elected to parliament for New Democracy at the age of 26.  He served as both foreign minister and finance minister before he turned  40.
      His unwillingness to compromise, though, cost him  his post and, temporarily, his party. After the 1991 breakup of  Yugoslavia induced former republic Macedonia to petition for United  Nations membership, Samaras led the fight to block international  recognition of the name. His view was that it referred to the ancient  geographical region of Macedonia, or most of northern Greece.
      While he was representing the broad party line,  his outspokenness led then-Prime Minister Constantine Mitsotakis to  replace him in April 1992. About a year later, Samaras set up his own  political party, which consistently failed to win significant numbers of  votes over the next 11 years.
                        Opening the Museum
      He rejoined the New Democratic Party in 2004, won a seat in parliament in 2007 and became culture minister in January 2009.
      In that job, Samaras arrived at work at 6:30 a.m.  and left at 11 p.m., said longtime friend Daniolou, who worked with him  at the ministry in the public-relations office. His principal focus was  on completing the New Acropolis Museum, a project that had been  stagnating for three decades because of delays caused by political  disputes, court cases and archaeological finds that slowed construction.
      Building the museum was crucial to Greece’s case  that the Elgin Marbles -- known in Greece as the Parthenon Marbles --  should return from the British Museum and to a proper home. Construction  was mostly complete, though the opening had been delayed repeatedly.
      Just days after his appointment, Samaras called  Daniolou and asked her to work for him. He told her he wanted the museum  to open in March. When she expressed doubt, he said he was willing to  push the date back -- to June.
                       ‘Killing Ourselves’
      “He put everyone to work,” she said. “We were killing ourselves. He said, ‘I don’t care, we’re going to do it.’”
       Three nights before the opening, staff told  Samaras the café couldn’t open because there were no waiters and no  equipment, Daniolou said. Samaras made some calls, and soon was choosing  china, pricing food and wine on the menu and correcting English  translations. The museum and café opened on time.
      Samaras became opposition leader when Papandreou  defeated Konstantinos Karamanlis in an October 2009 election, and the  debt crisis exploded. Papandreou, who campaigned on pledges of higher  wages, was forced to reverse course and embrace austerity. Savings alone  failed to restore Greece’s finances, leading to a 110 billion-euro  ($154 billion) bailout package in May 2010 coupled with spending cuts  and steps to raise revenue.
                          Five-Year Plan
      As the crisis engulfed Ireland and then Portugal,  EU and IMF officials questioned Papandreou’s progress on overhauling  the economy amid concerns the country wouldn’t be able to return to debt  markets.
      They told him to outline a five-year plan of  budget cuts and state asset sales that would ensure the country got the  next installment, needed to pay bond redemptions, wages and pensions  over summer, as well as a new funding package.
      Another part of the request: get support across  parties. Samaras declined. His intransigence was on public display in  June this year at a meeting of European self-styled “center- right”  leaders to discuss the second bailout. They pressured him to join with  Papandreou and push a 78 billion-euro package of austerity measures in  return for European aid to prevent a Greek default.
      He lashed out at the “current policy mix” for  relying too much on tax increases. In doing so, he was defying Merkel,  who had appealed to the Greek opposition “to live up to its historic  responsibility.”
                       ‘Friendly Discussion’
      “We had a friendly discussion, but also one that  said seriously in such a situation everyone has to unite in a country,”  Merkel told reporters on June 23, the day of the meeting. “It worked in  Portugal, it worked in Ireland and that’s why we made the case for it  working in Greece.”
      Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who also chairs euro-area finance meetings, was more blunt.
       “I couldn’t take part in the meeting, which  should be good news to Mr. Samaras, since I would have insistently  called on him to give up his negative stance,” Juncker said that day.
      Bastian, the Oxford academic, said the occasion  provided an opportunity for Samaras to “define his standing as a  constructive opposition. He failed that test big time.” Samaras “chose  to score cheap points in the domestic politics of Greece,” Bastian said.
      To Vardas, the childhood friend, Samaras’s stance was a matter of principle.
      “He could’ve gone to the Europeans and said what  they wanted to hear,” he said. Instead, Samaras “took the cost and said  no.”
                         Unity Government?
      Earlier that month, Samaras declined a Papandreou  offer to form a national unity government. During a June 15 telephone  call initiated by the prime minister, Samaras suggested Papandreou step  down and that neither of them should participate in the next government,  according to two people familiar with Samaras’s offer. The Papandreou  side said the prime minister was willing to depart once an agreement on a  specific agenda with clear goals was reached.
       In a national address that night, Papandreou  accused Samaras of playing politics and said he would form a new  government and then seek a vote of confidence in parliament. Samaras  retorted that Papandreou needed to decide whether he was able to govern  and accused the premier of backtracking on the offer to form a unity  government.
      “The question now is whether Mr. Papandreou can  govern,” Samaras said. “If he can, then he wrongly sought support from  us. If he can’t, then he has to resort to elections. The country can’t  remain in this uncertainty.”
                         Confidence Vote
      Papandreou won the confidence vote and then  backing for the 78 billion-euro, five-year package. He faced three  parliamentary votes in the space of a week to secure further  international aid, stemming defections from members of his Pasok party  all the while.
      “In a time of crisis, you made a choice that  forces you into the same camp as those who are betting on Greece’s  failure,” Papandreou told Samaras during the debate over the confidence  vote on June 21.
      The measure passed, 155-143, with Samaras voting  against, as police used tear gas to disperse thousands of anti-austerity  protesters in the streets of Athens. The vote paved the way for  European leaders to agree on a new bailout package on July 21.
      Papandreou and Samaras will lay out their visions  starting Sept. 10 at the annual international fair in Thessaloniki in  the north, where national leaders try to set the tone for the coming  parliamentary session.
                           Object, Agree
      They aren’t likely to change their minds.
      “It’s a classic case of ‘object in opposition and  agree in power,’” said Stuart Thomson, a fixed-income fund manager in  Glasgow at Ignis Asset Management, which oversees $125 billion, in a  telephone interview. “The markets will assume that if put in the same  position of the current Greek leadership, he would comply.”
      Thomson said Samaras “was responding to popular  opposition, to the cuts, to the austerity. You cannot criticize a  politician for responding to popular demands.”
      Papandreou was philosophical about his college friend during a July 19 interview at his office in Athens.
      “We have a longstanding personal relationship,”  he said. In politics, “there we do our sparring,” as well as seek  consensus, he said.
      “Sometime, after a decade, or so, we may sit down  over a glass of wine and think back and say, let’s assess how things  have gone in Greece,” Papandreou said.
***
Qualche "dietro le quinte".