Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1

[Imark]

A 90 non avrei molti dubbi nell'uscire anche in perdita, visto che qui le cose sono andate, negli ultimi anni, praticamente tutte per il verso sbagliato... anche perché rilevo che il recovery rating sul debito senior unsecured è in previsione molto basso.

Ciao,
concordo con te , venerdi' sono stato occupato ma ho gia' inoltrato mail con ordine di vendere domani sperando che non crolli nuovamente.
Che delusione pero' questa Tui

Up per Cicciotokio...

In estrema sintesi, la storia di Tui Ag potrebbe essere sintetizzata con il motto: "come sbagliare tutto, ma davvero tutto..."

Ancora prima dell'estate 2008, a loro sarebbe bastato scorporare e vendere Hapag-Lloyd, nel segmento della logistica e trasporto navale, per ridurre drasticamente il debito e rimettersi in carreggiata.

Per oltre 2 anni hanno cincischiato, il CEO era contrario, scontri fra il top management e glcuni azionisti che invece (giustamente) insistevano per la vendita ecc. ecc.

Quando finalmente sono arrivati a farla (dopo un cambio al vertice), hanno dovuto fare i conti con il tracollo dei prezzi dei noli marittimi, che ha notevolmente abbattuto il valore di Hapag-Lloyd, e con le difficoltà per gli acquirenti di trovare i finanziamenti, così che oggi la situazione si è complicata ed aggravata non poco...

Oggi come oggi non so se ci entrerei ... a voler fare una metafora calcistica, loro sono da paragonare ad una squadra che aveva la salvezza in tasca, sbaglia tutto e si trova a lottare all'ultima giornata per non retrocedere...

Se il management avesse preso le decisioni del caso "a testa o croce" lanciando la classica monetina, avrebbero sbagliato senz'altro qualcosa di meno ...

 

[Imark]

Abbassato nuovamente il rating di TUI dopo la decisione di effettuare un ulteriore finanziamento a sostegno di Hapag-Lloyd, consistente in una partecipazione in una società che rileverà un asset di H-L, fornendo liquidità per questa via. E i rating rimangono in creditwatch negativo perché, in quanto H-L necessita di ulteriori misure di sostegno, per cui l'agenzia assume che c'è il rischio di conversione in equity di parte del debito di TUI verso H-L, oppure di una rimodulazione dei termini in cui H-L dovrebbe ripagare il finanziamento, il tutto a detrimento della posizione creditizia di TUI.

A voler cercare una buona notizia, c'è la circostanza per cui dopo questa ulteriore misura di sostegno, H-L potrebbe fruire di fondi statali per far fronte ad ulteriori esigenze finanziarie (alle quali si accennava nei post precedenti). E tuttavia non vi è certezza che la richiesta di tali fondi venga accolta e che lo sia in misura adeguata a risolvere tutti i problemi di H-L.


[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TUI Lowered To 'B-' On New Shipping Investments; Ratings Still On CreditWatch Negative Pending Hapag-Lloyd Refinancing[/FONT]

• Germany-based tourism and shipping group TUI has announced it will make an additional cash commitment in support of its associate company Hapag-Lloyd.
• We are lowering the corporate credit rating on TUI to 'B-' from 'B'.
• We are maintaining our rating on TUI on CreditWatch negative pending the outcome of further refinancing measures for Hapag-Lloyd.
• The negative CreditWatch status reflects TUI's weakening liquidity profile and the possible impact on its credit quality of the Hapag-Lloyd refinancing.

LONDON (Standard & Poor's) July 29, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on German tourism and shipping group TUI AG to 'B-' from 'B'. At the same time, the senior unsecured debt ratings on TUI were lowered to 'CCC+' from 'B-' and the junior subordinated debt rating was lowered to 'CCC-' from 'CCC'. All ratings remain on CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on July 13, 2009.

"The one-notch downgrade reflects TUI's announcement on July 28, 2009, that it will make an additional €215 million cash commitment as the first part of a package of measures to support its 43%-owned associate Hapag-Lloyd AG," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Philip Temme.

This commitment will take the form of an investment in a new company that will take over Hapag-Lloyd's 25.1% equity stake in Container-Terminal Altenwerder (CTA) in the port of Hamburg. The CTA acquisition is being undertaken in collaboration with certain shareholders of the Hamburgische Seefahrtsbeteiligung "Albert Ballin" GmbH & Co. KG consortium.

At the same time, shareholders in the Albert Ballin consortium have agreed in principle to reach a decision over the next few weeks regarding the capital and financing measures required to support Hapag-Lloyd over the long term, which will form the basis for applications for government guarantees.

"The negative CreditWatch status reflects our view of the uncertainties relating to Hapag-Lloyd's operating performance and the next round of Hapag-Lloyd capital and financing measures," added Mr. Temme. "In particular, there is a risk that TUI might have to convert some of its existing debt exposure to Hapag-Lloyd back into equity, or else accept a revised Hapag-Lloyd loan repayment schedule, in order to conclude a satisfactory further round of financing measures.

Furthermore, in our opinion, there are also implications for the next package of Hapag-Lloyd support measures in the fact that not all consortium shareholders have agreed to participate in the CTA acquisition."

We aim to resolve the CreditWatch listing once further details are available about Hapag-Lloyd's trading performance and depending on whether its proposed capital and debt restructuring can be satisfactorily concluded.

Although TUI currently benefits from significant cash balances at the group level, its ability to meet its own medium-term obligations would be severely constrained by any payment default by Hapag-Lloyd, given TUI's substantial unsecured credit exposure to Hapag-Lloyd. Any material margin weakening in the tourism business over the key summer season would also be ratings-negative.

 

[solenoide]

Oggi nuova mazzata su TUI , con il bond 2011 che perde il 10% a seguito di ulteriori brutte notizie , in sostanza Hapag-Lloyd avrebbe bisogno di "soli" 1,95 miliardi di euro:
http://www.ariva.de/anleihen/profil.m?secu=244447

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a18HNjaV.pTM



Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- TUI AG, the biggest shareholder in shipping line Hapag-Lloyd AG, fell in German trading after Financial Times Deutschland said the vessel owner may need 1.95 billion euros ($2.76 billion) in capital.
The newspaper said Hapag’s owners may try to secure 1.2 billion euros in loan guarantees from the German government, more than the original 1 billion euros sought.
The container line has been hurt by the global recession and a glut of new vessels that led to a slump in freight rates. TUI has had to help fund Hapag by buying part of a container terminal, as well as planning to contribute part of a further 750 million euros in fresh capital. FTD, which didn’t say where it got the information, said the latter sum was unchanged.
“The FTD report set TUI’s shares under pressure, as investors may think that TUI will have to pay more for Hapag,” said Martina Noss, an analyst at Norddeutsche Landesbank in Hanover. “I believe that in the end, Hapag will qualify for loan guarantees after its owners find agreement on financing.”
Hapag’s owners need to draw up a business plan for the company’s future financing before filing for loan guarantees, according to the Federal economy ministry.
“We are still optimistic that all Hapag shareholders will find agreement on the future financing of the company,” said Robin Zimmermann, a TUI spokesman. No agreement has been reached yet, he added, and declined to comment further on the talks and the FTD report.
Share Decline
TUI fell 29 cents, or 5.8 percent, to 4.74 euros today in Frankfurt trading.
Hapag-Lloyd’s supervisory board said today it supports a restructuring plan for the company, proposed by strategy consultant Roland Berger & Partners GmbH. The interested parties are in “advanced and constructive discussions” on the plan, which includes a financing proposal.
Separately, Reuters reported that a cooperation and cross- shareholding agreement between TUI’s TUIFly unit and Air Berlin Plc may be smaller than first announced.
TUI Travel Plc, the Crawley, England-based tourism unit of TUI, couldn’t be reached by telephone for comment and didn’t immediately answer an e-mail.

 

[nik.sala]

Oggi nuova mazzata su TUI , con il bond 2011 che perde il 10% a seguito di ulteriori brutte notizie , in sostanza Hapag-Lloyd avrebbe bisogno di "soli" 1,95 miliardi di euro:
http://www.ariva.de/anleihen/profil.m?secu=244447

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a18HNjaV.pTM



Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- TUI AG, the biggest shareholder in shipping line Hapag-Lloyd AG, fell in German trading after Financial Times Deutschland said the vessel owner may need 1.95 billion euros ($2.76 billion) in capital.
The newspaper said Hapag’s owners may try to secure 1.2 billion euros in loan guarantees from the German government, more than the original 1 billion euros sought.
The container line has been hurt by the global recession and a glut of new vessels that led to a slump in freight rates. TUI has had to help fund Hapag by buying part of a container terminal, as well as planning to contribute part of a further 750 million euros in fresh capital. FTD, which didn’t say where it got the information, said the latter sum was unchanged.
“The FTD report set TUI’s shares under pressure, as investors may think that TUI will have to pay more for Hapag,” said Martina Noss, an analyst at Norddeutsche Landesbank in Hanover. “I believe that in the end, Hapag will qualify for loan guarantees after its owners find agreement on financing.”
Hapag’s owners need to draw up a business plan for the company’s future financing before filing for loan guarantees, according to the Federal economy ministry.
“We are still optimistic that all Hapag shareholders will find agreement on the future financing of the company,” said Robin Zimmermann, a TUI spokesman. No agreement has been reached yet, he added, and declined to comment further on the talks and the FTD report.
Share Decline
TUI fell 29 cents, or 5.8 percent, to 4.74 euros today in Frankfurt trading.
Hapag-Lloyd’s supervisory board said today it supports a restructuring plan for the company, proposed by strategy consultant Roland Berger & Partners GmbH. The interested parties are in “advanced and constructive discussions” on the plan, which includes a financing proposal.
Separately, Reuters reported that a cooperation and cross- shareholding agreement between TUI’s TUIFly unit and Air Berlin Plc may be smaller than first announced.
TUI Travel Plc, the Crawley, England-based tourism unit of TUI, couldn’t be reached by telephone for comment and didn’t immediately answer an e-mail.

eh lo so
chissà la perpetua come fila giù.
...è messa maluccio, ma tu pensi ad un eventuale default ???
Il settore non è dei più difensivi, anzi...

 

[solenoide]

Se andra' in default o meno non ti so dire ma nel dubbio quel poco che avevo l'ho venduto pochi giorni fa appena e' risalito sopra quota 90..per ora non ci penso ad acquistare , men che meno il perpetual(a dire il vero e' uno dei perpetual che non ho mai preso in considerazione ritenendo gia' speculative le senior)

 

[nik.sala]

Se andra' in default o meno non ti so dire ma nel dubbio quel poco che avevo l'ho venduto pochi giorni fa appena e' risalito sopra quota 90..per ora non ci penso ad acquistare , men che meno il perpetual(a dire il vero e' uno dei perpetual che non ho mai preso in considerazione ritenendo gia' speculative le senior)

purtroppo, dietro al turismo non c'è un interesse collettivo nel salvare le società...cioè non hanno una importanza cosi rilevante per il paese, come possono essere le banche e l'industria dell'auto...vedremo però io non sono cosi pessimista, su TUI.

 

[titox]

su che mercato sono quotati i bond tui..??
mi incollate un link per vedere i bond senior di cui parlate.
a voi risulta che H-L abbia emesso obbligazioni..?
grazie

 

[solenoide]

Il gruppo tedesco Tui ha chiuso il secondo trimestre dell' anno con una perdita di 536,9 milioni di euro, in peggioramento rispetto alla perdita di 56,4 milioni di un anno fa. A pesare sui conti di Tui e stata soprattutto la ex controllata Hapag Lloyd, di cui Tui detiene ancora il 43%. La perdita trimestrale e peggiore delle stime degli analisti che si aspettavano una risultato negativo per 140 milioni. Nelle attivita del turismo, che diventeranno l' attivita principale del gruppo, Tui ha registrato un calo del fatturato del 12% a 4,2 miliardi di euro e una flessione del 6% a 95 milioni di euro dell' ebit. Il gruppo tedesco comunque per la fine dellesercizio 2009 (che terminera a settembre, risultando ridotto) si aspetta un risultato positivo.

 

[METHOS]

TUI Second-Quarter Loss Widens on Loans to Hapag (Update1)


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By Holger Elfes
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- TUI AG, the German owner of Europe’s largest travel company, said its second-quarter loss widened on costs related to loans for the troubled Hapag-Lloyd container- shipping business.
The net loss widened to 537 million euros ($764 million), or 2.16 euros a share, from 56.4 million euros, or 24 cents, a year earlier, the Hanover, Germany-based company said today in a statement. That was a greater shortfall than the 136 million- euro average loss estimated by four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Sales fell 12 percent to 4.18 billion euros.
TUI said interest-rate effects on loans given to Hapag hurt results by 371 million euros. TUI, which sold about 57 percent of Hapag to a group of investors in March and retains the biggest stake in the company, last month agreed to help the shipping line, contributing 215 million euros to the purchase of a container terminal.
“There is no real turnaround for the slumping container business in sight though the speed of decline is slowing down,” said Martina Noss, an analyst at Norddeutsche Landesbank in Hanover, before the results were released. She has a “hold” rating on the shares.
The container line’s transport volumes fell 17 percent in the global recession and a glut of new vessels contributed to a 25 percent decline in freight rates. TUI and the Hapag investors are in talks to secure future financing of the container line, a condition for a planned bid for government loan guarantees. No agreement has been reached.
Hapag Loss
The loss from TUI’s stake in Hapag was 121 million euros. TUI said today that the container line needs financing of 1.95 bullion euros, 200 million euros more than previously expected. The shareholder contribution should be 750 million euros while 1.2 billion euros should come from government guaranteed bank loans, the company said.
TUI plays the “role of a bank” for Hapag, TUI Chief Financial Officer Rainer Feuerhake said on a conference call. The company had to make a risk evaluation for the loans it gave to the shipping line, which lead to the negative effect on earnings, he said. TUI expects a positive impact from the evaluation as soon as the global container business recovers, the CFO said.
TUI today said it began an “asset streamlining program,” which will see the refinancing of real estate, hotels and cruise ships through 2012, as well as some disposals.
Net Debt
Net debt rose to 2.63 billion euros as of June 30, from 2.58 billion euros at the end of the previous quarter.
The company’s tourism unit, TUI Travel Plc, said yesterday that quarterly profit was 33 million pounds ($54.5 million) compared with a loss of 216 million pounds a year earlier, when the results were hurt by one-time costs of 286 million pounds.
TUI said it now expects an operating result for its entire tourism business, including hotels and cruise ships, “slightly” below last year but still “satisfying.” Earlier TUI had said the business will be “stable” in 2009. The company reiterated that it still expects a positive full-year result for the group.
Shares in the company fell 3 cents, or 0.6 percent, to 4.71 euros in Frankfurt trading yesterday, giving the company a market value of 1.18 billion euros.
To contact the reporter on this story: Holger Elfes in Dusseldorf at [email protected].
Last Updated: August 13, 2009 02:50 EDT

 

[yellow]

13.08.09 13:38 - Tui: Cfo, soci Hapag-Lloyd si accordino per immettere fondi
FRANCOFORTE (MF-DJ)--Tui ha fatto sapere gli azionisti della sua controllata Hapag-Lloyd devono accordarsi sul contributo che verseranno nella societa' prima di chiedere aiuti finanziari per 1,2 miliardi di euro allo Stato.


E' quanto ha dichiarato il Cfo della capogruppo, Rainer Feuerhake, durante la conference call a seguito della pubblicazione dei dati di bilancio. Secondo il top manager, ci vorranno diverse settimane prima che i soci definiscano tutti i dettagli dell'operazione. Hapag-Lloyd ha bisogno di fondi per 1,95 miliardi di euro per evitare il collasso, di cui 750 milioni dovrebbero essere messi a disposizione dagli azionisti del gruppo.