cicciotokyo
Nuovo forumer
grazie, a me tutto sommato il 2011 sembra OK come scadenza
Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1
- Creatore Discussione TRADING_IDEAS
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Imark
Forumer storico
Oggi come oggi non so se ci entrerei ... a voler fare una metafora calcistica, loro sono da paragonare ad una squadra che aveva la salvezza in tasca, sbaglia tutto e si trova a lottare all'ultima giornata per non retrocedere...
cicciotokyo
Nuovo forumer
Oggi come oggi non so se ci entrerei ... a voler fare una metafora calcistica, loro sono da paragonare ad una squadra che aveva la salvezza in tasca, sbaglia tutto e si trova a lottare all'ultima giornata per non retrocedere...
eh.... essendo Salentino paragone non poteva essere piu adeguato di questi tempi
solenoide
Forumer storico
Da due settimane mi ripromettevo di vendere il cippino di Tui 2011.....ieri crollo del 7% sull'onda di questa stupenda notizia , porto a casa il terzo default dopo Lehman e Glitnir??
TUI Running Out of Cash as Shipping Revenue Sinks, SocGen Says
By John Glover
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- TUI AG, the owner of Europe’s largest travel company, is running out of cash as revenue at its Hapag-Lloyd shipping line slides and a loan to one of its units is unlikely to be paid, Societe Generale SA analysts said.
The company has 583 million euros ($810 million) of debt to repay this year and 967 million euros next, analysts Sonia Van Dorp, Marc Blanc and Caroline Duron in Paris wrote in a report today. To fund the payments, the Hannover-based company was “relying” on the return of a 1 billion-euro loan to its TUI Travel Plc unit, they wrote.
“We see problems at Hapag-Lloyd and TUI Travel as endangering TUI’s own liquidity,” wrote the analysts, who recommend selling the bonds. Hapag Lloyd is in a “dire situation,” and liquidity at the holding company is “deteriorating fast.”
Hapag-Lloyd cut working hours to counter a slump in container shipping and freight rates caused by an increase in the supply of new vessels and slowing world trade. The company is seeking as much as 1.75 billion euros in capital from lenders and shareholders including TUI AG, two people familiar with the matter said yesterday.
TUI Travel Plc had negative free cash flow of 731 million pounds ($1.19 billion) in the 12 months to March and had gross debt of 1.68 billion pounds, SG said. Liquidity was about 870 million pounds, the analysts wrote.
Robin Zimmermann, a spokesman for TUI in Hannover, didn’t return calls seeking comment.
Default Risk
“TUI Travel will need all its liquidity and may not be able to repay the 1 billion-euro shareholder loan at or before maturity,” the analysts wrote. “We expect TUI AG to run into liquidity problems in the first half of 2010. Default risk is not far away, in our opinion, unless the remaining 4.2 billion euros of debt at the TUI AG level is significantly restructured.”
The company’s 300 million euros of undated 8.625 percent notes were quoted at 45 cents on the euro to yield 40 percent, according to UniCredit SpA prices on Bloomberg. The notes are rated Caa1, seven steps below investment grade, at Moody’s Investors Service and an equivalent CCC+ at Standard & Poor’s.
The company is rated B2 at Moody’s, two steps higher than the bond, and a level above that at B+ by S&P.
To contact the reporter on this story: John Glover in London at [email protected]
Last Updated: July 10, 2009 08:38 EDT
negusneg
New Member
Da due settimane mi ripromettevo di vendere il cippino di Tui 2011.....ieri crollo del 7% sull'onda di questa stupenda notizia , porto a casa il terzo default dopo Lehman e Glitnir??
TUI Running Out of Cash as Shipping Revenue Sinks, SocGen Says
By John Glover
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- TUI AG, the owner of Europe’s largest travel company, is running out of cash as revenue at its Hapag-Lloyd shipping line slides and a loan to one of its units is unlikely to be paid, Societe Generale SA analysts said.
The company has 583 million euros ($810 million) of debt to repay this year and 967 million euros next, analysts Sonia Van Dorp, Marc Blanc and Caroline Duron in Paris wrote in a report today. To fund the payments, the Hannover-based company was “relying” on the return of a 1 billion-euro loan to its TUI Travel Plc unit, they wrote.
“We see problems at Hapag-Lloyd and TUI Travel as endangering TUI’s own liquidity,” wrote the analysts, who recommend selling the bonds. Hapag Lloyd is in a “dire situation,” and liquidity at the holding company is “deteriorating fast.”
Hapag-Lloyd cut working hours to counter a slump in container shipping and freight rates caused by an increase in the supply of new vessels and slowing world trade. The company is seeking as much as 1.75 billion euros in capital from lenders and shareholders including TUI AG, two people familiar with the matter said yesterday.
TUI Travel Plc had negative free cash flow of 731 million pounds ($1.19 billion) in the 12 months to March and had gross debt of 1.68 billion pounds, SG said. Liquidity was about 870 million pounds, the analysts wrote.
Robin Zimmermann, a spokesman for TUI in Hannover, didn’t return calls seeking comment.
Default Risk
“TUI Travel will need all its liquidity and may not be able to repay the 1 billion-euro shareholder loan at or before maturity,” the analysts wrote. “We expect TUI AG to run into liquidity problems in the first half of 2010. Default risk is not far away, in our opinion, unless the remaining 4.2 billion euros of debt at the TUI AG level is significantly restructured.”
The company’s 300 million euros of undated 8.625 percent notes were quoted at 45 cents on the euro to yield 40 percent, according to UniCredit SpA prices on Bloomberg. The notes are rated Caa1, seven steps below investment grade, at Moody’s Investors Service and an equivalent CCC+ at Standard & Poor’s.
The company is rated B2 at Moody’s, two steps higher than the bond, and a level above that at B+ by S&P.
To contact the reporter on this story: John Glover in London at [email protected]
Last Updated: July 10, 2009 08:38 EDT
In effetti mi chiedevo cosa fosse successo, vedendo la classifica delle peggiori obbligazioni...
https://www.boerse-stuttgart.de/rd/de/loser/anleihe_cb
quantotanto
Forumer attivo
Da due settimane mi ripromettevo di vendere il cippino di Tui 2011.....ieri crollo del 7% sull'onda di questa stupenda notizia , porto a casa il terzo default dopo Lehman e Glitnir??
TUI Running Out of Cash as Shipping Revenue Sinks, SocGen Says
Il bond è sceso da 94 a 79 in tre giorni salvo poi risalire a 90 nei successivi due giorni.
Qualcuno è a conoscenza di novità o è il rimbalzo del gatto morto?
Imark
Forumer storico
La società di trasporti marittimi Hapag-Lloyd dovrebbe ricevere solo 325 milioni di euro da TUI, mentre ha chiesto aiuti di stato per 1 mld euro (300 mln in finanziamenti di KFW e 700 da parte del governo tedesco).
La situazione resta estremamente delicata: non è detto che ricevano il finanziamento statale, e non è detto che basti a risolvere definitivamente i problemi...
Anche perché TUI in passato aveva contabilizzato di riceve indietro da H-L un finanziamento da 1 mld euro, circostanza che oggigiorno sembra da escludere.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeJYKBekMHpU
Peraltro, è previsto che TUI e il consorzio che controlla la maggioranza di H-L si incontrino ad agosto perché c'è urgenza di fornire liquidità alla società.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSLI35770020090718
La situazione resta estremamente delicata: non è detto che ricevano il finanziamento statale, e non è detto che basti a risolvere definitivamente i problemi...
Anche perché TUI in passato aveva contabilizzato di riceve indietro da H-L un finanziamento da 1 mld euro, circostanza che oggigiorno sembra da escludere.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeJYKBekMHpU
Peraltro, è previsto che TUI e il consorzio che controlla la maggioranza di H-L si incontrino ad agosto perché c'è urgenza di fornire liquidità alla società.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerGoodsAndRetailNews/idUSLI35770020090718
Imark
Forumer storico
Se ne parlava ieri. Oggi riporto questo recente downgrade di S&P sui ratings di TUI, che viene lasciata in creditwatch negativo, con possibilità di ulteriore downgrade a breve.
Il punto problematico è che TUI dipende a propria volta dalla capacità di Hapag-Lloyd di ripagare il proprio debito verso l'azionista di minoranza. Un default di H-L rischia di avere gravi conseguenze anche su TUI.
A 90 non avrei molti dubbi nell'uscire anche in perdita, visto che qui le cose sono andate, negli ultimi anni, praticamente tutte per il verso sbagliato... anche perché rilevo che il recovery rating sul debito senior unsecured è in previsione molto basso.
TUI AG Lowered To 'B' On Shipping Market Weakness; All Ratings On CreditWatch Negative Pending Hapag-Lloyd Refinancing
-- Weak shipping markets likely to constrain performance at 43%-owned associate Hapag-Lloyd.
-- We are lowering to 'B' from 'B+' the corporate credit rating on Germany-based tourism and shipping group TUI and placing it on CreditWatch with negative implications.
-- The CreditWatch placement reflects uncertainty surrounding Hapag-Lloyd's future financing.
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) July 13, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered to 'B' from 'B+' its long-term corporate credit rating on German tourism and shipping group TUI AG. At the same time, the senior unsecured debt ratings on TUI were lowered to 'B-' from 'B' and the junior subordinated debt rating was lowered to 'CCC' from 'CCC+'. All ratings were placed on CreditWatch with negative implications. The recovery rating on the senior unsecured debt is unchanged at '5', indicating our expectation of modest (10%-30%) recovery in the event of a payment default. The recovery rating on the subordinated debt is unchanged at '6', indicating our expectation of negligible (0%-10%) recovery in a payment default.
The one-notch downgrade reflects our expectation that weak shipping markets are continuing to adversely affect operating performance at TUI's 43%-owned associate Hapag-Lloyd AG (HL). In its first quarter earnings, released on May 11, 2009, TUI reported that container shipping revenues fell 22.9% in the first quarter of 2009 (compared with the first quarter of 2008)
on transport volumes down 15% and freight rates down 14.4%. Given continuing declines in freight rates since the first quarter, we anticipate that HL's second-quarter operating cash flows will likely be weaker when results for the TUI group are announced on Aug. 13, 2009.
TUI sold 56.67% of HL to the Albert Ballin consortium on March 23, 2009, leaving it with 43.33%. At the same time, TUI agreed a total of about €1.45 billion in shareholder loans to HL to fund the transfer of various shipping
and container assets. A large majority of these loans, which are currently due between March 2010 and December 2012, are on an unsecured basis. If the current weakness in shipping market conditions proves to be prolonged, we
believe that HL could have difficulties servicing and repaying this debt.
The CreditWatch placement with negative implications reflects the announcement on July 8, 2009, by TUI AG and HL's other shareholders, the Hamburg-based consortium Hamburgische Seefahrtsbeteiligung "Albert Ballin" GmbH & Co. KG, that they have agreed to submit proposals for capital and financing measures to secure HL's long-term future. TUI's supervisory board
confirmed on July 10, 2009, that it is willing to provide pro rata support to HL, with specific proposals to be discussed further among its shareholders. It remains unclear what level of additional debt or equity financing HL may eventually receive.
Standard & Poor's aims to resolve the CreditWatch placement following further discussions with TUI group management and once further details are available about HL's trading performance and any proposed capital restructuring. Any material margin weakening in the tourism business over the key summer season would be ratings-negative.
Although TUI currently benefits from significant cash balances at the group level, its ability to meet its own medium-term obligations would be severely constrained by any payment default by HL, given TUI's substantial unsecured credit exposure to HL.
Standard & Poor's notes that weaknesses in disclosure and transparency, difficult minority shareholder relationships, and a complex financial and covenant structure at the holding company level could all add to the operational difficulties posed by the continuing weakness in global shipping markets.
Il punto problematico è che TUI dipende a propria volta dalla capacità di Hapag-Lloyd di ripagare il proprio debito verso l'azionista di minoranza. Un default di H-L rischia di avere gravi conseguenze anche su TUI.
A 90 non avrei molti dubbi nell'uscire anche in perdita, visto che qui le cose sono andate, negli ultimi anni, praticamente tutte per il verso sbagliato... anche perché rilevo che il recovery rating sul debito senior unsecured è in previsione molto basso.
TUI AG Lowered To 'B' On Shipping Market Weakness; All Ratings On CreditWatch Negative Pending Hapag-Lloyd Refinancing
-- Weak shipping markets likely to constrain performance at 43%-owned associate Hapag-Lloyd.
-- We are lowering to 'B' from 'B+' the corporate credit rating on Germany-based tourism and shipping group TUI and placing it on CreditWatch with negative implications.
-- The CreditWatch placement reflects uncertainty surrounding Hapag-Lloyd's future financing.
LONDON (Standard & Poor's) July 13, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it lowered to 'B' from 'B+' its long-term corporate credit rating on German tourism and shipping group TUI AG. At the same time, the senior unsecured debt ratings on TUI were lowered to 'B-' from 'B' and the junior subordinated debt rating was lowered to 'CCC' from 'CCC+'. All ratings were placed on CreditWatch with negative implications. The recovery rating on the senior unsecured debt is unchanged at '5', indicating our expectation of modest (10%-30%) recovery in the event of a payment default. The recovery rating on the subordinated debt is unchanged at '6', indicating our expectation of negligible (0%-10%) recovery in a payment default.
The one-notch downgrade reflects our expectation that weak shipping markets are continuing to adversely affect operating performance at TUI's 43%-owned associate Hapag-Lloyd AG (HL). In its first quarter earnings, released on May 11, 2009, TUI reported that container shipping revenues fell 22.9% in the first quarter of 2009 (compared with the first quarter of 2008)
on transport volumes down 15% and freight rates down 14.4%. Given continuing declines in freight rates since the first quarter, we anticipate that HL's second-quarter operating cash flows will likely be weaker when results for the TUI group are announced on Aug. 13, 2009.
TUI sold 56.67% of HL to the Albert Ballin consortium on March 23, 2009, leaving it with 43.33%. At the same time, TUI agreed a total of about €1.45 billion in shareholder loans to HL to fund the transfer of various shipping
and container assets. A large majority of these loans, which are currently due between March 2010 and December 2012, are on an unsecured basis. If the current weakness in shipping market conditions proves to be prolonged, we
believe that HL could have difficulties servicing and repaying this debt.
The CreditWatch placement with negative implications reflects the announcement on July 8, 2009, by TUI AG and HL's other shareholders, the Hamburg-based consortium Hamburgische Seefahrtsbeteiligung "Albert Ballin" GmbH & Co. KG, that they have agreed to submit proposals for capital and financing measures to secure HL's long-term future. TUI's supervisory board
confirmed on July 10, 2009, that it is willing to provide pro rata support to HL, with specific proposals to be discussed further among its shareholders. It remains unclear what level of additional debt or equity financing HL may eventually receive.
Standard & Poor's aims to resolve the CreditWatch placement following further discussions with TUI group management and once further details are available about HL's trading performance and any proposed capital restructuring. Any material margin weakening in the tourism business over the key summer season would be ratings-negative.
Although TUI currently benefits from significant cash balances at the group level, its ability to meet its own medium-term obligations would be severely constrained by any payment default by HL, given TUI's substantial unsecured credit exposure to HL.
Standard & Poor's notes that weaknesses in disclosure and transparency, difficult minority shareholder relationships, and a complex financial and covenant structure at the holding company level could all add to the operational difficulties posed by the continuing weakness in global shipping markets.
solenoide
Forumer storico
A 90 non avrei molti dubbi nell'uscire anche in perdita, visto che qui le cose sono andate, negli ultimi anni, praticamente tutte per il verso sbagliato... anche perché rilevo che il recovery rating sul debito senior unsecured è in previsione molto basso.
Ciao,
concordo con te , venerdi' sono stato occupato ma ho gia' inoltrato mail con ordine di vendere domani sperando che non crolli nuovamente.
Che delusione pero' questa Tui
Ciao,
concordo con te , venerdi' sono stato occupato ma ho gia' inoltrato mail con ordine di vendere domani sperando che non crolli nuovamente.
Che delusione pero' questa Tui
- Stato
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Obbligazioni societarie
HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate, vol.3
