Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1
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monica2004
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Mexican Homebuilders See Credit-Positive Housing Subsidy Increase
Last Tuesday, Jorge Carlos Ramírez Marín, head of Mexico’s Ministry of Agrarian, Land and Urban Development (SEDATU), announced a MXN12.6 billion budget to grant housing subsidies to homebuyers in 2014, well above the MXN8.3 billion of subsidies provided in 2013. The announcement is credit positive for Mexican homebuilders because the record subsidies will enhance the demand for low-income housing.
The subsidies are granted through a program called Esta es tu casa, operated by the National Housing Commission (CONAVI), SEDATU’s housing arm, and will benefit homebuilders with significant exposure to the low-income segment. Also, given the eligibility rules, homebuilders with land banks already registered in eligible areas will benefit the most.
Corpovael S.A. de C.V. (B1 stable) and Servicios Corporativos Javer, S.A.P.I. de CV (B2 stable) are likely to see the most effect. Because of the recent delays in subsidy distribution, these companies had shifted their portfolios toward higher-priced houses, reducing their dependence on subsidies, as shown in Exhibit 1.
With the increase in subsidies, we expect them to be able to capture the additional demand, boosting their volumes.
We estimate that the government will allocate MXN1.3 billion of subsidies per month in November and December, more than double the 2013 monthly averages shown in Exhibit 3. This increase should help strengthen demand for low-income housing heading into 2014, and reflects the Mexican government’s support of homeownership and construction.
In 2012, subsidies were around MXN7.5 billion, with just 10% provided in the fourth quarter, as shown in Exhibit 3, owing to delays on account of presidential elections and a transition to new leadership in the main federal housing institutions. These delays materially affected the operating performance of homebuilders exposed to subsidized sales and ultimately contributed to the defaults of the three largest homebuilders.
The purpose of the program is to increase access to housing financing for the lower-income population. The subsidies can be used for either housing construction, improvement or acquisition. For housing acquisition, the maximum amount that can be granted to an individual is around MXN72,800 for a house valued at up to MXN394,000. In general, a property needs to be located in defined areas to receive the subsidy.
Eligibility and the amount granted are a function of the property’s development in terms of infrastructure, proximity to urban centers and accessibility to employment sources.
Last Tuesday, Jorge Carlos Ramírez Marín, head of Mexico’s Ministry of Agrarian, Land and Urban Development (SEDATU), announced a MXN12.6 billion budget to grant housing subsidies to homebuyers in 2014, well above the MXN8.3 billion of subsidies provided in 2013. The announcement is credit positive for Mexican homebuilders because the record subsidies will enhance the demand for low-income housing.
The subsidies are granted through a program called Esta es tu casa, operated by the National Housing Commission (CONAVI), SEDATU’s housing arm, and will benefit homebuilders with significant exposure to the low-income segment. Also, given the eligibility rules, homebuilders with land banks already registered in eligible areas will benefit the most.
Corpovael S.A. de C.V. (B1 stable) and Servicios Corporativos Javer, S.A.P.I. de CV (B2 stable) are likely to see the most effect. Because of the recent delays in subsidy distribution, these companies had shifted their portfolios toward higher-priced houses, reducing their dependence on subsidies, as shown in Exhibit 1.
With the increase in subsidies, we expect them to be able to capture the additional demand, boosting their volumes.
We estimate that the government will allocate MXN1.3 billion of subsidies per month in November and December, more than double the 2013 monthly averages shown in Exhibit 3. This increase should help strengthen demand for low-income housing heading into 2014, and reflects the Mexican government’s support of homeownership and construction.
In 2012, subsidies were around MXN7.5 billion, with just 10% provided in the fourth quarter, as shown in Exhibit 3, owing to delays on account of presidential elections and a transition to new leadership in the main federal housing institutions. These delays materially affected the operating performance of homebuilders exposed to subsidized sales and ultimately contributed to the defaults of the three largest homebuilders.
The purpose of the program is to increase access to housing financing for the lower-income population. The subsidies can be used for either housing construction, improvement or acquisition. For housing acquisition, the maximum amount that can be granted to an individual is around MXN72,800 for a house valued at up to MXN394,000. In general, a property needs to be located in defined areas to receive the subsidy.
Eligibility and the amount granted are a function of the property’s development in terms of infrastructure, proximity to urban centers and accessibility to employment sources.
gennaro pinto
VictoriaConcordiaCrescit
buondi
per come la vedo io il settore HY in generale....non ha "solo un problema" di cosa fanno, come lo fanno, dove lo fanno e soprattutto quanto "gudagnano".....ma semplicemente ha vissuto di una luce riflessa data dale politiche iper accomodanti delle banche centrali...
a mio avviso cio' che si sta "affacciando" sul mercato (tralasciando problem specifici di singoli gruppi) e che il RISCHIO intrinseco del comparto HY lo si sta nuovamente "prezzando" riportando lo spread "HY/Free risk govies" a livelli "normalio...
ricordo che tale spread ha "sempre" avuto un valore attorno agli 8/9 punti di differenza...
ebbene...in quest anno si e' arrivati anche a 4 punti di differenza su emittenti a dir poco "terremotati"...
il mio timore e che finiti gli "incentivi della rottamazione FED"...(fatto salvo che la BCE non inizi a fare lo stesso...cosa molto probabile...)...tale spread possa fare un bello strappo sino ai 10/15 punti e la giustificazione risiede nella constatazione del fatto che nonostamnte politica tassi zero/sottozero....alcuni emittenti nn sono stati ne capaci di aggiustare I propri business ne tantomeno ristrutturare le proprie esposizioni debitorie...
insomma..."capitani d azienza avventurosi" stanno per essere estromessi definitivamente dal mercato...
(in gergo uso il termine..."epurazione naturale" di chi si improvvisa imprenditore"..
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