Kazakhstan Lends Funds to Help Banks Refinance Legacy Problem Loans,
a Credit Positive
On 15 April, the National Bank of Kazakhstan announced that it will lend banks KZT130 billion (about $700
million) at a 2.99% interest rate and 20-year maturity to refinance mortgages originated between 2004 and
2009. The funds for refinancing mortgage loans will reduce nonperforming loans (NPLs) and improve banks’
asset quality, a credit positive.
Relative to the total size of Kazakh banks’ legacy problem loans, KZT130 billion is a small amount. At the
end of 2014, system NPLs more than 90 days overdue exceeded KZT3.3 trillion, or 24% of gross loans.
Including restructured loans and loans overdue by less than 90 days, we estimate that problem loans total
around 40% of gross loans. Nevertheless, the amount of the central bank loan is material at around 1% of
gross loans and will help Kazakh banks address the NPL overhang from prior years as the slowing local
economy pressures more recently originated and performing loans. The central bank’s KZT130 billion
funding adds to the KZT250 billion it injected into the National Distressed Asset Fund last year to
repurchase NPLs from the country’s largest banks.
Banks accepting the loans from the new program will be required to pass on the interest-rate savings to the
underlying mortgage borrowers, making mortgage payments more affordable. Most overdue mortgages in
Kazakhstan are 2004-09 vintage, reflecting rapid loan growth before the global financial crisis.
Among rated Kazakh banks, ForteBank JSC (Caa2/C review for upgrade, c review for upgrade4
) and Bank
CenterCredit (B2 stable, b3) have the largest ratios of mortgage NPLs to total loans and will thus stand to
benefit most, as shown in the exhibit.
In addition to problem mortgage loans, banks can also use the funds to refinance mortgages from 2004-09
that are denominated in foreign currencies, including loans that are still performing. This, too, is positive for
banks’ asset quality given the potential for a depreciation in the tenge, which has been roughly stable against the US dollar at 185 over the past year even as the currencies of Russia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and
Belarus depreciated significantly. Foreign currency-denominated mortgages accounted for KZT138 billion, or
15% of all mortgages at the end of 2014, and we forecast that the tenge will depreciate by more than 20%
against the US dollar over the next 12 months.
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