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Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes Downgraded To 'CCC-' From 'B-', Off Watch On Likely Debt Restructuring; Outlook Negative
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- 29-Mar-2016 00:05 BST
SAO PAULO (Standard & Poor's) March 28, 2016--Standard & Poor's Ratings
- We expect weak market conditions and heavy capital structure to force
Brazilian airline GOL to restructure its debts, especially its senior
unsecured bonds, as seen in the company's recent announcements of
engagements with debt restructuring advisors.- We're lowering our global scale ratings on GOL to 'CCC-' from 'B-' and
national scale ratings to 'brCCC-' from 'brB-'. We also removed all
ratings from CreditWatch with negative implications where we placed them
on Feb. 5, 2016.- The negative outlook reflects our view that there's a high likelihood
that the company plans to renegotiate the terms of some of its debts or
make an exchange offer in the next six months. We would consider the
latter as distressed, and therefore, tantamount to a default.
Services lowered its global scale corporate credit rating on GOL Linhas Aereas
Inteligentes S.A. (GOL) to 'CCC-' from 'B-'. We also lowered our national
scale corporate credit rating on the company to 'brCCC-' from 'brB-'. In
addition, we removed all ratings from CreditWatch negative listing. The
outlook on the corporate credit ratings is negative.
We also lowered our issue-level rating on GOL's senior unsecured bonds to
'CCC-' from 'B-'. The recovery rating of '4', indicating our expectation of an
average recovery (30%-50%; the lower end of the range) for the unsecured debt,
remains unchanged.
GOL has announced today that it has engaged advisors to look for measures to
strengthen its capital structure. This announcement supports our view that due
to difficult market conditions, weak demand, weak domestic currency, and
intense competition that will result in subpar cash generation, GOL's capital
structure will become unsustainable. We believe that high interest expenses
and cash burn from operations will deplete the company's currently strong cash
position in the next 12 to 18 months. This scenario would increase the
likelihood that GOL will seek to de facto restructure its debts, especially
the most expensive senior unsecured debt within the next six months. Given the
company's inability to improve credit metrics on its own, it's highly likely
that we would consider the renegotiation of terms and conditions, or exchange
offers, as a distress negotiation, which would tantamount to a default.
The negative outlook reflects our expectations that the company will look to
renegotiate the terms of some of its debts in the next six months, and that
there's high likelihood we would consider those negotiations as distressed.
Furthermore, we will lower the company's ratings if it fails to meet any of
its scheduled financial obligations with banks, lessors, and/or bonds.
An upgrade is currently unlikely, given the weak fundamentals for the
company's operations and that a positive rating action would depend on
significant improvements in GOL's cash flows due to external factors, such a
capital increase or unexpected recovery in market conditions.