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Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1
- Creatore Discussione TRADING_IDEAS
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Continental S&P upgrades rating by one notch to B+
“Hold” the CONTI bonds. “Neutral” on 5Y CDS at 271 bps
S&P raised Conti’s rating to B+ from B with a positive outlook. The upgrade is a result of the improvement in Conti’s credit metrics and liquidity, following the arrangement of a new bank facility (EUR 6 bn), and the improved credit quality of its parent, Schaeffler GmbH. The positive outlook assigned reflects the agency’s view that Conti will continue to improve its financial risk profile throughout 2011 and beyond. The improvement will be supported by a rebound of global light vehicle production and solid demand for both passenger car and truck tires worldwide. The current B+ rating assigned is underpinned by solid market shares, size, diversity, technological capabilities and ability to generate above industry-average profitability. S&P assesses Conti’s financial risk profile as "highly leveraged" due to the weaker credit quality of the parent, Schaeffler. We concur with S&P’s rating upgrade and opine that Conti’s credit profile has improved with the new refinancing, and further view the stake reduction by Schaeffler as positive.
“Hold” the CONTI bonds. “Neutral” on 5Y CDS at 271 bps
S&P raised Conti’s rating to B+ from B with a positive outlook. The upgrade is a result of the improvement in Conti’s credit metrics and liquidity, following the arrangement of a new bank facility (EUR 6 bn), and the improved credit quality of its parent, Schaeffler GmbH. The positive outlook assigned reflects the agency’s view that Conti will continue to improve its financial risk profile throughout 2011 and beyond. The improvement will be supported by a rebound of global light vehicle production and solid demand for both passenger car and truck tires worldwide. The current B+ rating assigned is underpinned by solid market shares, size, diversity, technological capabilities and ability to generate above industry-average profitability. S&P assesses Conti’s financial risk profile as "highly leveraged" due to the weaker credit quality of the parent, Schaeffler. We concur with S&P’s rating upgrade and opine that Conti’s credit profile has improved with the new refinancing, and further view the stake reduction by Schaeffler as positive.
Novasep Moody’s downgrades to D
“Hold” the NOVASP 9.625% at a mid price of 57 or a yield of 26.5%
Unsurprisingly, Moody’s lowered the probability of default rating on Novasep from Ca to D after the company paid just EUR 3 mn of its EUR 18 mn coupon on its bonds. It affirmed its corporate family and bonds rating at Ca with a stable outlook. It estimates recovery at c. 50%. In any case, we think a substantial haircut of Novasep’s debt is likely and would not be surprised if noteholders receive an equity stake in the company. We keep our assessment on “Default” on the LARA scale and still do not believe the bonds offer much value given the high uncertainty involved.
“Hold” the NOVASP 9.625% at a mid price of 57 or a yield of 26.5%
Unsurprisingly, Moody’s lowered the probability of default rating on Novasep from Ca to D after the company paid just EUR 3 mn of its EUR 18 mn coupon on its bonds. It affirmed its corporate family and bonds rating at Ca with a stable outlook. It estimates recovery at c. 50%. In any case, we think a substantial haircut of Novasep’s debt is likely and would not be surprised if noteholders receive an equity stake in the company. We keep our assessment on “Default” on the LARA scale and still do not believe the bonds offer much value given the high uncertainty involved.
Seat PG Moves Board approval of its H1 accounts from 3rd August to 29th August
“Hold” all bonds
Yesterday, Seat made the rather unusal move to postpone the announcements of its H1 results to 29th August. These were scheduled originally for August 3rd. This may be a completely innocent move, however we speculate that the recent spillover of the European debt crisis into Italy may well have impacted Seat’s ongoing restructuring talks, perhaps creating a rather pressing issue for the Board, although we recognise that as a publicly listed entity it has an obligation to disclose price sensitive material information to the market. Either way, given the uncertainty surrounding Seat’s current position in the context of intense and ongoing speculation over Italy’s creditworthiness, we maintain our “Hold” recommendation on Seat senior bonds. Although on paper Lighthouse would stil represent the fulcrum security in our view, we feel that the overall uncertainty surrounding Italian sovereign debt and banks make Lighthouse an even more speculative position to take, hence we change our recommendation from speculative buy below 30 to hold. We maintain our “Very High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale.
“Hold” all bonds
Yesterday, Seat made the rather unusal move to postpone the announcements of its H1 results to 29th August. These were scheduled originally for August 3rd. This may be a completely innocent move, however we speculate that the recent spillover of the European debt crisis into Italy may well have impacted Seat’s ongoing restructuring talks, perhaps creating a rather pressing issue for the Board, although we recognise that as a publicly listed entity it has an obligation to disclose price sensitive material information to the market. Either way, given the uncertainty surrounding Seat’s current position in the context of intense and ongoing speculation over Italy’s creditworthiness, we maintain our “Hold” recommendation on Seat senior bonds. Although on paper Lighthouse would stil represent the fulcrum security in our view, we feel that the overall uncertainty surrounding Italian sovereign debt and banks make Lighthouse an even more speculative position to take, hence we change our recommendation from speculative buy below 30 to hold. We maintain our “Very High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale.
qquebec
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qquebec
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fabriziof
Forumer storico
qui finisce male
ferdo
Utente Senior
ca.volo che spread!!!
- Stato
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HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate, vol.3
