Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1
- Creatore Discussione TRADING_IDEAS
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Confermonon mi puoi battere
annunciai il fallimento di air berlin 30 minuti prima delle agenzie di stampa
skarlatti
Forumer storico
la parte in bold è interessante ed infatti il dollaro si è già apprezzato, chissà che continui... è quello che accennzavo ierisera , adesso eur/usd 1,1875
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Il comitato di politica monetaria di Federal Reserve ha confermato, come da attese, il costo del denaro a 1-1,25%, annunciando per ottobre, come previsto, un piano di graduale riduzione del proprio portafoglio titoli da 4.200 miliardi di dollari, la maggior parte dei quali accumulati in risposta alla crisi finanziaria del 2007-2009.
Dalle previsioni degli esponenti Federal Reserve sui Fed Funds emerge inoltre che l'istituto centrale Usa vede ancora un rialzo dei tassi per quest'anno, tre nel 2018, due nel 2019 e uno nel 2020.
Dall'ultimo sondaggio condotto da Reuters tra gli economisti, pubblicato la settimana scorsa, emergeva la convinzione che l'istituto centrale Usa procederà nel quarto trimestre ad un nuovo rialzo dei tassi di 25 punti base, sebbene rispetto all'indagine di agosto tale convinzione sia risultata meno diffusa.
D'altra parte, nel corso dell'ultima settimana, sul mercato le aspettative per un ritocco verso l'alto dei tassi a dicembre sono cresciute, alla luce dei numeri più forti delle attese dei prezzi al consumo.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Il comitato di politica monetaria di Federal Reserve ha confermato, come da attese, il costo del denaro a 1-1,25%, annunciando per ottobre, come previsto, un piano di graduale riduzione del proprio portafoglio titoli da 4.200 miliardi di dollari, la maggior parte dei quali accumulati in risposta alla crisi finanziaria del 2007-2009.
Dalle previsioni degli esponenti Federal Reserve sui Fed Funds emerge inoltre che l'istituto centrale Usa vede ancora un rialzo dei tassi per quest'anno, tre nel 2018, due nel 2019 e uno nel 2020.
Dall'ultimo sondaggio condotto da Reuters tra gli economisti, pubblicato la settimana scorsa, emergeva la convinzione che l'istituto centrale Usa procederà nel quarto trimestre ad un nuovo rialzo dei tassi di 25 punti base, sebbene rispetto all'indagine di agosto tale convinzione sia risultata meno diffusa.
D'altra parte, nel corso dell'ultima settimana, sul mercato le aspettative per un ritocco verso l'alto dei tassi a dicembre sono cresciute, alla luce dei numeri più forti delle attese dei prezzi al consumo.
Luca_niubbo
Forumer storico
ottimisti!
Luca_niubbo
Forumer storico
eh, ma farà la stessa cosa anche la BCE a breve, no?
A quel punto cosa succederà?
Norske Skog’s Proposed Recapitalisation Reduces Leverage at the Expense of Current Bondholders
On Monday, Norske Skogindustrier ASA (Norske Skog, Caa3 stable) proposed a recapitalisation that aims to address the company’s unsustainable capital structure. The proposal is credit negative for current bondholders because if the offer were to be accepted, they would incur losses across the entire liability structure. However, the recapitalisation would significantly reduce group leverage to a more sustainable level, materially reduce interest payments and avoid bankruptcy proceedings for which recovery for existing bondholders would be uncertain. The proposed transaction consists of three key components. First, the unsecured notes issued by Norske Skogindustrier ASA and Norske Skog Holding AS, the holding entities of Norske Skog AS, and perpetual notes issued by Norske Skogindustrier ASA (all totalling roughly €500 million at end of June 2017) will be fully equitized. Second, claims of secured securitisation lenders (which totalled €106 million at the end of June 2017) and the secured notes issued by Norske Skog AS (which totalled €308 million at the end of June 2017, including accrued interest) will be exchanged for new senior secured notes with a longer tenor and a face value of €250 million, implying a loss of roughly 40% for secured lenders. Third, the company will make a €40 million new money equity offering available to unsecured noteholders and existing shareholders. Under the terms of the offer, current shareholders would be diluted, with the current secured and unsecured bondholders becoming shareholders in the amount of 94% and 4%, respectively. If the offer is accepted, we estimate that Norske Skog’s pro forma Moody’s-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA (including standard adjustments for pensions, capitalised operating leases and off-balance-sheet securitisation) would improve to a more sustainable 6.0x from 14.8x for the 12 months to June 2017. The smaller debt load also would materially reduce annual interest payments to NOK200 million from NOK600 million currently, thus freeing up capital for an operational restructuring and investments into businesses with underlying growth prospects, such as biogas and wood pellets. Norske Skog’s goal is for growth businesses to contribute 25% of the group’s operating earnings by 2020. Given that structurally declining publication paper currently generates the vast majority of Norske Skog’s operating earnings, the company cannot achieve its goal with its current capital structure. This is because its capital structure does not allow the company to invest beyond maintenance capex owing to its high interest bill. If the offer is not accepted and Norske Skogindustrier ASA files for bankruptcy, secured bondholders are likely to take ownership of Norske Skog AS.
On Monday, Norske Skogindustrier ASA (Norske Skog, Caa3 stable) proposed a recapitalisation that aims to address the company’s unsustainable capital structure. The proposal is credit negative for current bondholders because if the offer were to be accepted, they would incur losses across the entire liability structure. However, the recapitalisation would significantly reduce group leverage to a more sustainable level, materially reduce interest payments and avoid bankruptcy proceedings for which recovery for existing bondholders would be uncertain. The proposed transaction consists of three key components. First, the unsecured notes issued by Norske Skogindustrier ASA and Norske Skog Holding AS, the holding entities of Norske Skog AS, and perpetual notes issued by Norske Skogindustrier ASA (all totalling roughly €500 million at end of June 2017) will be fully equitized. Second, claims of secured securitisation lenders (which totalled €106 million at the end of June 2017) and the secured notes issued by Norske Skog AS (which totalled €308 million at the end of June 2017, including accrued interest) will be exchanged for new senior secured notes with a longer tenor and a face value of €250 million, implying a loss of roughly 40% for secured lenders. Third, the company will make a €40 million new money equity offering available to unsecured noteholders and existing shareholders. Under the terms of the offer, current shareholders would be diluted, with the current secured and unsecured bondholders becoming shareholders in the amount of 94% and 4%, respectively. If the offer is accepted, we estimate that Norske Skog’s pro forma Moody’s-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA (including standard adjustments for pensions, capitalised operating leases and off-balance-sheet securitisation) would improve to a more sustainable 6.0x from 14.8x for the 12 months to June 2017. The smaller debt load also would materially reduce annual interest payments to NOK200 million from NOK600 million currently, thus freeing up capital for an operational restructuring and investments into businesses with underlying growth prospects, such as biogas and wood pellets. Norske Skog’s goal is for growth businesses to contribute 25% of the group’s operating earnings by 2020. Given that structurally declining publication paper currently generates the vast majority of Norske Skog’s operating earnings, the company cannot achieve its goal with its current capital structure. This is because its capital structure does not allow the company to invest beyond maintenance capex owing to its high interest bill. If the offer is not accepted and Norske Skogindustrier ASA files for bankruptcy, secured bondholders are likely to take ownership of Norske Skog AS.
In che senso?
iguanito
Forumer storico
Facciamo così: dicci invece su quali titoli si potrebbe puntare. vediamo se funziona al contrario. O quelli li tieni per te?c'e' poco da dire, come menagramo sono una potenza
https://www.investireoggi.it/forums...e-inesplorate.64287/page-4949#post-1045270114"
volete che vi analizzi qualche altro titolo ?
gualberto
Charlie don't Surf
stralcio di un articolo di seeking alpha su Intelsat
So what do we do with Intelsat now?
Intelsat has been in rally mode recently. Over the past several months the stock has risen about 50%, to where it was when the OneWeb/Softbank deal was announced.
I data by YCharts
The question is, if you have the stock and bought it from lower levels, what do you do?
Please recall that even before the OneWeb/Softbank deal was announced, my opinion was that Intelsat could reach as high as $12 in 18 months. Please read a previous article from January as to why: Intelsat Shares May Reach $12 In 18 Months. So even without the deal, I always thought the stock would do good anyway.
Second, in order for the deal to have gone through, SoftBank was asking bondholders to take about a $1.5B haircut. What's strange, is that many categories of Intelsat bonds were trading at a bigger discount, so initially I thought this was a done deal.
However bondholders rejected the deal, and even rejected a second offer that offered a sweetener. So what does this mean?
Well, I think it means they are comfortable holding Intelsat's bonds. In other words, bondholders don't see the company defaulting like most analysts, and see their coupon secure.
So if they are right (and I think they are), then we return to my original scenario, that Intelsat shares might reach $12 a share over the next several quarters. And if that's the case, then I don't mind the OneWeb/Softbank deal did not go through, because shareholders stand to make more money over a longer term period.
Final thoughts
While Intelsat remains a very high leveraged company, I still think the risk is worth the reward. And if I am right, holders of Intelsat shares stand to reap above average returns, as evidenced by the stock's rally over the past several months.
Please remember that you could make a lot of money when using high leverage. This I think is the case with Intelsat. Yes there are risks, however I think the chances of winning are on our side, and like I said I think it's worth the risk.
In addition, while the deal with OneWeb and SoftBank fell apart, I still think the deal makes sense, and I think the idea might return at some time in the future.
Finally, it never ceases to amaze how fast many analysts change their mind. Recently Jefferies upgraded Intelsat to a buy with a price target of $5. As I write this article, the stock is trading above that price.
However in a more recent note, Jefferies analyst Giles Thorne believes Intelsat "can regain its $18 per share initial public offering price" with the right execution. He thinks the stock could potentially rise fivefold, keeping his $5 price target for now.
Well folks, for a company that everyone had for dead, analysts are starting to take notice and I expect to see more upgrades in the future.
I am long Intelsat and expect to keep my position for some time. I would add to it, but it's already my second largest holding. The stock from time to time has a lot of violability, so be prepared for bumps if you decide to buy it
So what do we do with Intelsat now?
Intelsat has been in rally mode recently. Over the past several months the stock has risen about 50%, to where it was when the OneWeb/Softbank deal was announced.
The question is, if you have the stock and bought it from lower levels, what do you do?
Please recall that even before the OneWeb/Softbank deal was announced, my opinion was that Intelsat could reach as high as $12 in 18 months. Please read a previous article from January as to why: Intelsat Shares May Reach $12 In 18 Months. So even without the deal, I always thought the stock would do good anyway.
Second, in order for the deal to have gone through, SoftBank was asking bondholders to take about a $1.5B haircut. What's strange, is that many categories of Intelsat bonds were trading at a bigger discount, so initially I thought this was a done deal.
However bondholders rejected the deal, and even rejected a second offer that offered a sweetener. So what does this mean?
Well, I think it means they are comfortable holding Intelsat's bonds. In other words, bondholders don't see the company defaulting like most analysts, and see their coupon secure.
So if they are right (and I think they are), then we return to my original scenario, that Intelsat shares might reach $12 a share over the next several quarters. And if that's the case, then I don't mind the OneWeb/Softbank deal did not go through, because shareholders stand to make more money over a longer term period.
Final thoughts
While Intelsat remains a very high leveraged company, I still think the risk is worth the reward. And if I am right, holders of Intelsat shares stand to reap above average returns, as evidenced by the stock's rally over the past several months.
Please remember that you could make a lot of money when using high leverage. This I think is the case with Intelsat. Yes there are risks, however I think the chances of winning are on our side, and like I said I think it's worth the risk.
In addition, while the deal with OneWeb and SoftBank fell apart, I still think the deal makes sense, and I think the idea might return at some time in the future.
Finally, it never ceases to amaze how fast many analysts change their mind. Recently Jefferies upgraded Intelsat to a buy with a price target of $5. As I write this article, the stock is trading above that price.
However in a more recent note, Jefferies analyst Giles Thorne believes Intelsat "can regain its $18 per share initial public offering price" with the right execution. He thinks the stock could potentially rise fivefold, keeping his $5 price target for now.
Well folks, for a company that everyone had for dead, analysts are starting to take notice and I expect to see more upgrades in the future.
I am long Intelsat and expect to keep my position for some time. I would add to it, but it's already my second largest holding. The stock from time to time has a lot of violability, so be prepared for bumps if you decide to buy it
- Stato
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Obbligazioni societarie
HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate, vol.3
