Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1

[gionmorg]

stralcio di un articolo di seeking alpha su Intelsat


So what do we do with Intelsat now?

Intelsat has been in rally mode recently. Over the past several months the stock has risen about 50%, to where it was when the OneWeb/Softbank deal was announced.

I data by YCharts


The question is, if you have the stock and bought it from lower levels, what do you do?

Please recall that even before the OneWeb/Softbank deal was announced, my opinion was that Intelsat could reach as high as $12 in 18 months. Please read a previous article from January as to why: Intelsat Shares May Reach $12 In 18 Months. So even without the deal, I always thought the stock would do good anyway.

Second, in order for the deal to have gone through, SoftBank was asking bondholders to take about a $1.5B haircut. What's strange, is that many categories of Intelsat bonds were trading at a bigger discount, so initially I thought this was a done deal.

However bondholders rejected the deal, and even rejected a second offer that offered a sweetener. So what does this mean?

Well, I think it means they are comfortable holding Intelsat's bonds. In other words, bondholders don't see the company defaulting like most analysts, and see their coupon secure.

So if they are right (and I think they are), then we return to my original scenario, that Intelsat shares might reach $12 a share over the next several quarters. And if that's the case, then I don't mind the OneWeb/Softbank deal did not go through, because shareholders stand to make more money over a longer term period.

Final thoughts

While Intelsat remains a very high leveraged company, I still think the risk is worth the reward. And if I am right, holders of Intelsat shares stand to reap above average returns, as evidenced by the stock's rally over the past several months.

Please remember that you could make a lot of money when using high leverage. This I think is the case with Intelsat. Yes there are risks, however I think the chances of winning are on our side, and like I said I think it's worth the risk.

In addition, while the deal with OneWeb and SoftBank fell apart, I still think the deal makes sense, and I think the idea might return at some time in the future.

Finally, it never ceases to amaze how fast many analysts change their mind. Recently Jefferies upgraded Intelsat to a buy with a price target of $5. As I write this article, the stock is trading above that price.


However in a more recent note, Jefferies analyst Giles Thorne believes Intelsat "can regain its $18 per share initial public offering price" with the right execution. He thinks the stock could potentially rise fivefold, keeping his $5 price target for now.

Well folks, for a company that everyone had for dead, analysts are starting to take notice and I expect to see more upgrades in the future.

I am long Intelsat and expect to keep my position for some time. I would add to it, but it's already my second largest holding. The stock from time to time has a lot of violability, so be prepared for bumps if you decide to buy it

dai che facciamo bingo con intelsat

 

[Luca_niubbo]

In che senso?

in realtà era una frase poco ponderata, chiedo scusa.

Semplicemente il prezzo della call del 2019 può far intendere che si aspettano anche un grosso rialzo del prezzo del bond..

 

[warren baffo]

ancora?

non ho capito..problemi?

 

[skarlatti]

eh, ma farà la stessa cosa anche la BCE a breve, no?
A quel punto cosa succederà?

no

 

[gionmorg]

Windstream Holdings Inc. Downgraded To 'B' On Weakening Operating Performance; Outlook Negative

• U.S. telecommunications provider Windstream Holdings Inc.'s operating

• performance continues to weaken as a result of ongoing competitive
  pressures in its consumer business and slower ramp-up of its enterprise
  business.
• We expect weak operating trends to continue, which could heighten
  refinancing risk regarding its 2020 and 2021 maturities unless it is able
  to stabilize performance.
• We are lowering the corporate credit rating on Windstream Holdings Inc.
  to 'B' from 'B+'.
• We are also lowering the rating on wholly-owned subsidiary Windstream
  Services LLC's senior unsecured debt to 'B' from 'B+' and the rating on
  its senior secured debt to 'BB-' from 'BB'.
• The negative outlook reflects continued uncertainty about performance
  stemming from intense competition from cable providers and low visibility
  into the impact of cost-cutting initiatives. Moreover, avenues to address
  the company's outer-year maturities could be constrained, in our view,
  absent meaningful improvement in operating performance.

NEW YORK (S&P Global Ratings) Sept. 19, 2017--S&P Global Ratings today lowered
its corporate credit rating on Little Rock, Ark.-based Windstream Holdings Inc.
to 'B' from 'B+'. The outlook is negative.

At the same time, we lowered the rating on Windstream Services LLC's senior
secured debt to 'BB-' from 'BB'. The recovery rating remains '1', which
indicates our expectation of very high (90%-100%; rounded estimate: 95%)
recovery in the event of payment default.

The negative outlook reflects continued uncertainty around future performance
stemming from competitive pressures in the consumer and SMB segment, slower
sales conversion in the enterprise business, and low visibility into the
impact of cost-cutting initiatives. Moreover, avenues to address the company's
outer-year maturities could be constrained, absent a material improvement in
operating performance.
We could lower the rating if continued customer losses or weak sales growth
result in further degradation in operating performance with free operating
cash flow trending materially lower. We believe these factors could lead to a
diminished liquidity position and impair the company's ability to pay down its
medium-term maturities. We could also lower the rating if the acquisition of
EarthLink results in integration missteps, higher churn, pricing pressure, and
lower-than-expected synergies such that the company records ongoing weak free
operating cash flow.

We could revise the outlook to stable if Windstream is able to demonstrate
sustained operating improvement in both is consumer and enterprise businesses,
resulting in greater confidence in the company's ability to address debt
maturities in 2020 and beyond.

 

[gualberto]

non ho capito..problemi?

Warren erano battute...tranquillo non erano rivolte a te...nessun problema

 

[Luca_niubbo]

no

QE e tassi ancora bassi quindi?

 

[fabriziof]

Windstream Holdings Inc. Downgraded To 'B' On Weakening Operating Performance; Outlook Negative

• U.S. telecommunications provider Windstream Holdings Inc.'s operating

• performance continues to weaken as a result of ongoing competitive
  pressures in its consumer business and slower ramp-up of its enterprise
  business.
• We expect weak operating trends to continue, which could heighten
  refinancing risk regarding its 2020 and 2021 maturities unless it is able
  to stabilize performance.
• We are lowering the corporate credit rating on Windstream Holdings Inc.
  to 'B' from 'B+'.
• We are also lowering the rating on wholly-owned subsidiary Windstream
  Services LLC's senior unsecured debt to 'B' from 'B+' and the rating on
  its senior secured debt to 'BB-' from 'BB'.
• The negative outlook reflects continued uncertainty about performance
  stemming from intense competition from cable providers and low visibility
  into the impact of cost-cutting initiatives. Moreover, avenues to address
  the company's outer-year maturities could be constrained, in our view,
  absent meaningful improvement in operating performance.

NEW YORK (S&P Global Ratings) Sept. 19, 2017--S&P Global Ratings today lowered
its corporate credit rating on Little Rock, Ark.-based Windstream Holdings Inc.
to 'B' from 'B+'. The outlook is negative.

At the same time, we lowered the rating on Windstream Services LLC's senior
secured debt to 'BB-' from 'BB'. The recovery rating remains '1', which
indicates our expectation of very high (90%-100%; rounded estimate: 95%)
recovery in the event of payment default.

The negative outlook reflects continued uncertainty around future performance
stemming from competitive pressures in the consumer and SMB segment, slower
sales conversion in the enterprise business, and low visibility into the
impact of cost-cutting initiatives. Moreover, avenues to address the company's
outer-year maturities could be constrained, absent a material improvement in
operating performance.
We could lower the rating if continued customer losses or weak sales growth
result in further degradation in operating performance with free operating
cash flow trending materially lower. We believe these factors could lead to a
diminished liquidity position and impair the company's ability to pay down its
medium-term maturities. We could also lower the rating if the acquisition of
EarthLink results in integration missteps, higher churn, pricing pressure, and
lower-than-expected synergies such that the company records ongoing weak free
operating cash flow.

We could revise the outlook to stable if Windstream is able to demonstrate
sustained operating improvement in both is consumer and enterprise businesses,
resulting in greater confidence in the company's ability to address debt
maturities in 2020 and beyond.

Ok ora si può risalire

 

[Brizione]

Ok ora si può risalire

Postate qualche isin?

 

[skarlatti]

QE e tassi ancora bassi quindi?

non hai capito l'articolo che ho postato... dice che la fed venderà gradualmente dal prossimo mese i titoli acquistati nel periodo del QE per 4,2 miliardi.