Obbligazioni societarie HIGH YIELD e oltre, verso frontiere inesplorate - Vol. 1

[gionmorg]

CEVA Q2 earnings preview: expect results in line with global growth, outlook to be soft
“Hold” the 8.375% 12/17 at 97.5 or a Z-spread of 735 bps. Prefer to stay away from the rest of the structure at present
Ceva is set to release Q2 results on Monday. In light of the Euro crisis and the Japan tragedy (though management indicated minimal impact from the latter in the Q1 call), we expect a modest y-o-y growth at best, particularly due to softness in the auto end-markets and strong Q2/10 comparatives, offset to some extent by a more resilient consumer sector. We also expect higher prevailing costs, particularly fuel, to pressure margins. We are looking for revenues of c. EUR 1.7 bn and Adjusted EBITDA in the range of EUR 70-75 mn. We anticipate a favourable effect on debt from a weaker USD when translated into EUR given that a large proportion of Ceva’s debt is in USD. Leverage is expected to remain high. with net leverage between 6x and 6.5x. We expect the company to provide a softer outlook in light of the EUR crisis, the on-going MENA issues and slowing growth in the US. We retain our “High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale.

 

[gionmorg]

TUI Q3 earnings review: decent numbers and outlook confirmed
“Hold” senior bonds; “Neutral” on its hybrid TUIGR 8.625% trading at a mid price of 86 or a Z-spread of 1,899 bps; “Sell” 1Y CDS at 640 bps (however, rather illiquid and hold to maturity)
TUI released decent Q3 figures. Revenues increased by 9.3% to EUR 4,388 mn. TUI’s guidance was affirmed, with management expecting a solid performance of TUI Travel (guiding for earnings slightly above last year) and a stable performance of TUI Hotels & Resorts, whereas TUI Cruises is expected to post slightly weaker numbers. The tourism segment reported a resilient development, with the Nordics and the UK posting good numbers, whilst tour operators in France and the Hotel & Resorts segment suffered from political unrest in the MENA region. Thus, TUI Travel’s underlying EBITA was rather unchanged at EUR 87.5 mn, whereas for the Hotels & Resorts segment it fell from EUR 26.8 mn to EUR 16.8 mn. Underlying EBITA in Cruises fell from EUR 2.2 mn to EUR 0.2 mn. TUI AG’s (holdco, issuer of bonds) net debt in Q3 decreased from EUR 1,859 mn to EUR 1,289 mn (EUR 1.55 bn on a consolidated level). This was mostly the result of the repayment of the TUI Travel shareholder loan of EUR 160 mn, the early repayment of the vendor loan by Hapag-Lloyd of EUR 161 mn and the 11.33% stake disposal of Hapag-Lloyd to Albert Ballin for EUR 315 mn. In light of the very weak and volatile markets, we maintain our “Hold” recommendation for now. However, investors who have appetite for volatility should look at 1Y CDS, which in our view is an attractive (however, rather illiquid) survival trade given the reasonable liquidity (more than EUR 800 mn of cash) of TUI AG versus very limited short term maturities. We keep our “High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale.

 

[whitesoul9]

CEDC in questo momento +18% al nasdaq, speriamo dia un pò di ossigeno al bond

 

[nik.sala]

Un secondo filone di senior debt holders (i possessori del bond BCM Ireland TV 2016) sta facendo di tutto per farsi riconoscere da Eircom quale parte in gioco per la ristrutturazione del debito. Ma la società non vuole temendo un intralcio ai piani di recovery. I debitori delle obbligazioni subordinate (PIK) già non erano stati ammessi, mentre fra i senior lenders solo alle banche era stato concesso di trattare con la società.
A breve conosceremo i piani di ristrutturazione del debito di Eircom.
Pressure piles on Eircom from second lender group over debt - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

Speriamo che all'ultimo riescano con un colpo di coda ad essere compresi nel piano di ristrutturazione.
C'è da dire che (toccando ferro e facendo i dovuti scongiuri ) al momento si è paventata ma non si è mai percorsa con insistenza la strada dello spostamento della sede legale a Londra, che è la cosa che mi fa più paura, perchè vorrebbe dire che la nave sta affondando
Boh. La cedola è stata pagata, adesso siamo veramente all'epilogo, oserei dire, dentro o fuori
Fatemi gli auguri... sarebbe un vero miracolo

 

[qquebec]

Eircom chiederà una deroga al rispetto dei covenats bancari che sono stati violati lo scorso 30 Giugno pagando entro il 13 Settembre lo 0,5% del valore nominale dei bond senior bancari. Al momento sono esclusi i bond senior 2016, ma potrebbero rientrare nella partita all'ultimo momento.

 

[qquebec]

Fage Dairy

Dopo la pubblicazione della semestrale, Moody's ha rivisto l'outlook di Fage (B3) da positivo a stabile per via della contrazione dei consumi in Grecia

 

[nik.sala]

Ricavi trimestrali stazionari rispetto allo scorso anno, MOL a 187 mln R (+5,5%), Ebitda a 246 mln (+2%), ma perdita netta a 198 mln a causa del dimezzamento delle entrate finanziarie e dell'incremento del 73% delle spese finanziarie che riassumo (vedere comunque pag. 29):
Finance expenses at R573,4 million reflected an increase of R243,3 million from the prior period charge of R330,1 million. This increase was a result of the reversal of issue costs, discount and potential early redemption premium associated with the SSNs and PIK Notes of R372,6 million and R62,2 million, respectively, at June 2010. The reversal of the costs arose from the decision to extend the expected refinancing date of the SSNs to April 2014. This was partially offset by a lower foreign exchange loss on the restatement of the SSN liability of R102,8 million in June 2011 as compared to a loss of R342,7 million in June 2010 on the forward contracts to hedge the SSN liability.

La società a me cmq non dispiace, ed il bond, di pari rating dell'emittente (B- senior secured) con tutto il can can che c'è stato ha perso circa una decina di punti dai massimi di periodo, cosa che ci può assolutamente stare visto il comparto e la tipologia di investimento che stiamo trattando; inoltre trattasi di emittente sudafricana, al di fuori del gran casino made in U.S.A. ed EURO che c'è in questo periodo

 

[nik.sala]

Dopo la pubblicazione della semestrale, Moody's ha rivisto l'outlook di Fage (B3) da positivo a stabile per via della contrazione dei consumi in Grecia

Sarà, ma il bond ha tenuto benissimo, cosa che sinceramente non mi aspettavo in situazioni del genere.
Probabilmente il settore anticiclico (alimentare) e la forte esposizione verso un mercato di largo consumo (U.S.A.) fanno da paliativo alla nazionalità dell'emittente (Greece).
Per me sotto i 90 è da incrementare, considerando anche che cè il bond in USD che scade dopo quello in €.
Unico difetto, la scarsa liquidità : probabilmente i market maker sono solo due, e non entrambi i contributori sono utilizzati dai principali istituti di credito per compravendere il bond in oggetto

 

[fabriziof]

Seat PG Further reports in Italian press of upcoming debt restructuring
Move from “Hold” to “Speculative Buy” PGIM 10.5% 01/17 at a price at or below 80 (currently ask price is at 83)
Yesterday, Italian newspaper La Stampa reported that Seat may announce its debt restructuring in September. Even though the shares rallied 8% at closing prices, market capitalisation is still only EUR 94 mn. H1 results are expected to be announced on 29th August. This is the second such report this summer. We would be pleasantly surprised if the debt restructuring was announced that early, as we were expecting the spill-over of the European Debt Crisis to Italy to negatively impact negotiations. We continue to believe the fulcrum security is the Lighthouse bonds, with a consensual agreement between the various parties the most likely outcome. We believe, as we have commented before, that management is on track to turning around the business, through a refocus on a SME web agency type model. We view the reselling agreement reached with Google Adwords this year as key. We are not convinced, however, that the corner has been turned and we hope to see confirmation of a stabilisation in EBITDA (and margin) in the coming quarters. Earlier this year, management clearly indicated its confidence in meeting all cash obligations in 2011 including Lighthouse coupons and we eagerly await an update on Seat’s cash position and liquidity in that context. That said, given the significant widening of PGIM bonds recently, we believe the senior secured paper has become attractive and move from “Hold” to “Speculative Buy” at a price of 80. We continue to believe recoveries in Lighthouse will be decent, however, given the extra uncertainty provided by the Italian macro economic environment, we feel senior secured paper provides a better risk adjusted return currently. PGIM 10.5% 01/17 offers an attractive cash yield and good upside with limited downside, as we believe recoveries would be in the 90% to 100% range (thus providing at least a 10 point gain at our suggested entry price of 80). As an aside, we note S&P’s downgrade of Yell from B- to CCC+ yesterday. We do not think this downgrade will impact Seat significantly as the two names have managed their online conversion in different ways and are at different stages of recovery. We note Yell’s new strategy unveiled on July 14th is focussed on becoming an SME “eMarketplace” leader. We maintain our “Very High Risk” assessment on the LARA scale.

seat perde perde perde...

Seat, perdita netta sem 32,6 mln, vara linee strategiche 2011-13

CoS_SeatPG_1H11_ita.pdf‎ .dal comunicato niente novità sul debito

 

[qquebec]

Q2 Zlomrex positivo

Alla fine questo "rottame" è quello che ha retto meglio le legnate di questa estate Vai te a capire come funzionano i mercati e soprattutto i rating