Macy’s and J.C. Penney’s Solid Holiday Sales Results Are Credit Positive
Last week, Macy’s Inc. (Baa2 stable) and J.C. Penney Company Inc. (Caa1 stable) reported that their sales for
the combined months of November and December were at the higher end of their expectations. The strong
sales data is credit positive for both retailers and supports our view that overall retail sales will benefit from
continued employment growth and lower gasoline prices.
Macy’s on 8 January announced that its comparable sales (on an owned plus licensed basis) rose 2.7% in
November and December 2014 from the same period a year earlier, which tracks at the high end of its
expectations for 2%-3% growth. J.C. Penney on 6 January reported even stronger results, with same-store
sales for November and December rising 3.7% from a year earlier. J.C. Penney now expects fourth-quarter
(which ends in January) comparable-store sales at the upper end of its previous guidance range for samestore
sales growth of 2%-4%.
The stronger results indicate that weather and other factors affecting what was a soft third quarter were
temporary and are consistent with our expectations that consumers will spend some of their savings from
lower gas prices at the mall. Our forecast for overall retail sales in the holiday period was for growth of 3%-
4%, and the November-December sales data increases our confidence that the results will be at the high
end of this range.
For J.C. Penney, the stronger results indicate that the retailer’s turnaround strategy is taking hold. With the
stronger sales performance, the company is likely to see meaningful EBITDA improvement this year. For the
full year, we expect J.C. Penney’s EBITDA (as defined by the company) to be around $300 million, a
meaningful improvement from its nearly $600 million EBITDA loss last year. Although the trend is positive,
J.C. Penney’s capital structure remains unsustainable at current performance levels because the company’s
EBITDA is modest compared with its total debt of more than $5.5 billion. J.C. Penney must drive meaningful
continued improvement (i.e., gain share in a highly competitive retail category) to sustain its
capital structure.
In separate announcements, Macy’s and J.C. Penney each said that they would close stores this year (14
Macy’s stores and 40 J.C. Penney stores). Shuttering less-profitable stores is credit positive for both
companies, although the magnitude of these specific closures is modest. For example, Macy’s 14 closing
stores constitute less than 0.5% of its total sales. The store closures are part of a longer-term trend in which
department stores continue to exit less-productive stores in weaker mall locations when their leases expire.
Last week’s announcements are a continuation of this trend, which we expect will remain in place for the
foreseeable future.